000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 95W from 03N to 16N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
15N between 90W and 103W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 120W from 06N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
07N to 17N between 110W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N93W to 07N103W. The
ITCZ begins near 07N103W and continue to 10N118W then resumes 
from 10N121W to 08N129W to 10N136W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is from 07N to 14N between 134W and 139W. Scattered 
moderate convection is N of 02N E of 90W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California with a 
broad and expansive ridge west of Baja California. This pressure 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough in the Bay of 
Campeche continues to support a gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with fresh N winds reaching as far as 15N. Seas in 
Tehuantepec are moderate to 6 ft in SW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, and across the SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are 
light to gentle and seas are moderate to 6 ft, except to 4 ft in 
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a 
diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate 
to fresh there thereafter, possibly increasing back to fresh to 
strong early next week. Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja 
California beginning later today and tonight as the pressure 
gradient tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week and into 
the weekend. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of 
the weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters, 
diminishing to 3 to 5 ft outside of off Baja California Norte by 
the weekend. Seas will be 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California 
through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft. The fetch of these
winds reaches the outer half of the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters, supporting seas to 6 ft over this area as well.
Elsewhere, across the remainder Central America offshore waters
and the waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light
to gentle and seas 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms  
are over the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica,
as well as now within 150 nm of the coasts of Guatemala and El 
Salvador where locally higher winds and seas are likely.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through today,
then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will 
subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then 
build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1034 mb is centered well northwest of the 
discussion area near 48N154W with a ridge extending from the 
high center SSE to around 18N115W. A tropical wave is south of 
the ridge near 120W, generating scattered showers and tstms, and
tightening the pressure gradient, which is leading to the
continuation of moderate to fresh NE to E winds between 120W and
130W. Farther west, a surface trough from 09N137W to 14N135W is
genererating heavy showers and tstms with ASCAT data also
showing 20-30 kt SE to S winds E of the trough in the area of
strongest convection. N of the ITCZ, ASCAT data show moderate to
fresh NE to E winds in the remainder trough environment while
seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate northeast to 
east trades are elsewhere north of 20N and W of 115W along with 
4 to 5 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, seas of 8 to 9 ft will linger over the western
tropical E Pacific waters through Sat night as both the surface 
trough and the tropical wave near 120W moves westward. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds will also prevail W of 120W between the
monsoon/ITCZ and 20N associated with the passage of these
features. No major changes in winds and seas expected elsewhere
through early next week.

$$
Ramos