Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.
Abandoning the classical econometric modeling approach which consists in using explanatory variab... more Abandoning the classical econometric modeling approach which consists in using explanatory variables (suggested by economic theory for prediction), we choose instead to use a sophisticated method developed by Box and Jenkins (1970) based solely on the past behavior of the variable being modeled/forecast. As we are in a data-rich environment and the economies and financial markets are more integrated than ever before, the quantitative methods in business and finance has increased substantially in recent years. This paper investigates the limitation of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in financial and monetary economics using the behavior of BET Index and EUR/RON exchange rates, respectively. Two important features discovered in the analysis of financial time series in this paper are fat-tails (large losses or gains are coming at a higher probability than the normal distribution would suggest) and volatility clustering, these empirical properties can't be captured by integrated ARMA models, hence the limitation of these models.
International Conference on Informatics in Economy, May 21, 2020
Targeted marketing based on data mining techniques can help the companies to understand their cur... more Targeted marketing based on data mining techniques can help the companies to understand their current and future customers in their efforts to deliver them best products and services. Artificial Neural Networks as universal approximators have the capability to find patters in data for delivering benchmark results in various domains for various classification or regression problems. Considering the digital transformation, available data and available communication channels between suppliers and customers it is becoming easier to identify the right customers and more cost effective to target then only. Technology advance and competition creates the premises for both success and failure to be just a matter of tuning the models in the best way for the selected use case. Moreover, it is not only about the industry. It is about the Artificial Neural Networks understanding added to the subject matter experts knowledge and experience. Moreover, Artificial Neural Networks can be applied with success in many other areas rather than marketing. Usually the limitations are not given by Artificial Neural Networks intrinsic characteristics but by the use case itself. This paper may engage marketing analysts or enthusiasts in using Artificial Neural Networks in their real-world use cases. Covering a wide range of knowledge from Artificial Neural Networks fundamentals to hyperparameter fine tuning and model evaluation being a guide for marketing practitioners in deploying their own solutions for data driven marketing campaigns.
În această lucrare, este pusă în discuţie terminologia utilizată în noul domeniu, numit "economie... more În această lucrare, este pusă în discuţie terminologia utilizată în noul domeniu, numit "economie comportamentală" și câţiva dintre adepţii săi. Economia comportamentală, în modalitatea de plată primară, utilizată pentru furnizorii de asistență medicală spitalicească, numită DRG, este discutată în trei subsecțiuni ale acestei cercetări, cu câteva reprezentări în domeniu. În multe situații, economia comportamentală devine psihologie economică. Unii dintre factorii psihologici, care au impact asupra agenților economici din sistemul de sănătate, sunt stabiliți și indicatorii principali de performanță ai cunoașterii oricărui spital sunt identificați și calculați în prezenta lucrare, pentru a oferi o imagine de ansamblu în domeniu. Aceştia au fost supuşi atenţiei, prin analiza statistică matematică privind determinarea intervalului de încredere a duratei medii de spitalizare a unui compartiment cu profil chirurgical. O serie de concluzii au fost trase la sfârșitul acestui studiu, lăsând sesiunea deschisă pentru o viitoare cercetare.
We are focusing to analyse the economic activity from the industry branch in Romania with aggrega... more We are focusing to analyse the economic activity from the industry branch in Romania with aggregated data at sectorial level, on the years 2000-2001. The main purpose is to reveal aspects related to the implications which could arise because of the relations between a variables set which tries to explain the firms' activity efficiency from a certain industrial sector and a variables set which tries to describe the competition degree into and out of the industry sectors .Our researches are based on data analysis techniques, especially: Principle Components Analysis and Taxonomy Objects. The paper it would be a great source of information when the governmental authority would want to take decisions on applying certain increasing efficiency policies in economic activity from industry, especially these years when our country tries to make significant progresses on the adhering to European Union. 11.50-12.10 2. Efficiency estimates through stochastic production frontier for Swedish banks with exogenous influence of IT expenditure
Uncertainty is given because we don't know the nature state event. The company can only estimate ... more Uncertainty is given because we don't know the nature state event. The company can only estimate the demand of policies in order to estimate the received premiums. If the insurance company doesn't choose correctly the alternative and the number and the damages will be greater then what it was estimated, then it will come to the point of not being able to pay all the damages. Because of the adverse selection, the insurer meets uncertainty in every day life. It is well known the fact that persons who have a higher risk of producing the insured event, they also have a higher inclination towards contracting insurance.
The present article makes an analysis of the products spatial differentiation, taking into co nsi... more The present article makes an analysis of the products spatial differentiation, taking into co nsideration the case of the linear city. In this context, we consider different types of transportation costs, whic h influence the profit size
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Jun 1, 2008
Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which charac... more Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), May 1, 2007
etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The p... more etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: "Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model" and "Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model". The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.
Solar radiation is among the renewable resources on which modern society relies to partially repl... more Solar radiation is among the renewable resources on which modern society relies to partially replace the existing fossil fuelbased energy resources. Awareness of how the energy is produced must complement awareness of how it is consumed. In the economic context, the gains derive from predictability across the entire supply chain. This paper represents a compressive study on how standard recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory, and gated recurrent units can be used to forecast power production of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This approach can be used for other use cases in solar or even wind power prediction since it provides solid fundamentals for working with weather data and recurrent artificial neural networks, being the core of any smart grid management system. Few studies have explored how these models should be implemented, and even fewer have compared the outcomes of different model types. The data used consist of weather and power production data with a one-hour resolution. The data were further pre-processed to unveil the maximum information. The most effective model parameters were selected to make the forecast. Solar energy plays a key role among other renewable energy sources in the European Union's climate action and the European Green Deal. Under these initiatives, important regulations are implemented and financial resources made available for those who possess the capabilities required to solve the open points. The much-needed predictability that gives the flexibility and robustness needed for deploying and adopting more renewable technologies can be ensured by utilizing a neural-based predictive approach.
The aim of the paper is to study the aspects of economic growth - as development support for a co... more The aim of the paper is to study the aspects of economic growth - as development support for a country, and to present the causes which generate the cycles in the evolution of the economic growth rhythm. The theoretical analysis is supported with examples of the classic models, the data thereof being offered by the National Bank of Romania, the National Commission of Statistics, Reports of international structures concerning Romania, i.e.Furthermore, there is an analysis of the monetary mass depending on the GDP and the interest rate as well as a description of the monetary policy the National Bank of Romania has chosen to pursue.The new monetary policy the National Bank has adopted aims directly at inflation which implies the recognition of the importance of the inflationist phenomenon in modern economies and, implicitly, that the most efficient way for the monetary policy to sustain the general desire of a long-term economic growth is to secure price stability.
The aim of the international conference ESPERA 2016 was to present and evaluate the economic scie... more The aim of the international conference ESPERA 2016 was to present and evaluate the economic scientific research portfolio, to argue and substantiate Romanian development strategies – including European and global best practices. The plenary session and the parallel sections were centered on priority research directions in the field of economic and social sciences of the 'Romanian Academy Research Strategy 2014-2020', respectively: Romania's sustainable economic and social development - models, scenarios, evaluations; natural resources patrimony - costs and benefits of its valorization; knowledge, innovation, smart development and human capital; economy dynamics and structural changes for a competitive growth; European integration and globalization - new challenges; economic instability and stabilization policies; development and improvement of economic and social forecasting tools; food safety and security – challenges for agriculture economic development; assessment of economic, social and political experiences and thoughts; contributions to the New Encyclopedia of Romania; quality of life and social policies evaluations; demographic facts and figures. The edition 2016 of ESPERA intend to explore two-three main concerns of the researchers in the field of economic and social sciences regarding the future development challenges of the Romania and Europe and the possible solutions identified.
Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, Dec 18, 2018
Migration is one of the consequences of globalization, alongside production internationalization,... more Migration is one of the consequences of globalization, alongside production internationalization, the new global division of labor and the markets globalization. Economic and social impact of migration is significant and Romania has faced and continues to face the negative consequences of migration of young educated people, and social problems due to families where one or both parents are working abroad and children remain in the care of relatives. The authors analyze the economic impact of migration at European Union level, by using statistical regression models to allow decision-makers to take the most appropriate measures in the context of globalization. The main indicators that were used are the net remittances of workers and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The main conclusion of the research is that the net remittances of workers and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita are moving proportionally, therefore a positive net remission is a prerequisite to improve the economic performance, and the negative net remittances of labor, have negative effects on the economic performance. By connecting this result with the analysis of migration flows which affect Romania, the authors reached the conclusion that the negative economic impact of migration on the
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), 2006
The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformati... more The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation bring a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.
The study aims to present a series of results related to the medical research in Romania, taking ... more The study aims to present a series of results related to the medical research in Romania, taking into account the data obtained by the application of a statistical survey to the medical staff with higher education in Bucharest. Based on the data series resulting from the application of this questionnaire we obtained information related to the medical staff opinion on issues regarding the following: the organization of research at the universities, the quality of the documentation sources available to medical personnel that work in the medical research, the quality of the national and international academic, the endowment of medical research laboratories with equipment to enable support of the medical research, the quality of the databases that support the development of quantitative medical studies.
The Society perceives the dangers as threats, challenges and risks. Risk is defined as direct and... more The Society perceives the dangers as threats, challenges and risks. Risk is defined as direct and assumed threat. Most of all, the highest risks in modern society are likely asymmetric. They include the whole sphere of human activity and they are accompanying man in almost everything he does. As long as the world is diversifying and is ranking, the more numerous and more acute become asymmetric threats. Because asymmetry is difference, meaning the possibility to act differently and to react differently, in order to capture, destroy, win strategic initiative and freedom of action and, therefore, to defeat. We present a series of theoretical issues related to risk analysis and risk analysis techniques: scenario technique and probability-impact matrix technique. In the second part of the paper an analysis of critical infrastructure and types of asymmetric risks are presented. The third part of the paper presents a study of portfolio risk using GARCH models (1.1), considering the daily returns of RASDAQ-C and BET indexes and the RON / USD exchange rate, and also an analyses of the achieved results will be considered.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.
Abandoning the classical econometric modeling approach which consists in using explanatory variab... more Abandoning the classical econometric modeling approach which consists in using explanatory variables (suggested by economic theory for prediction), we choose instead to use a sophisticated method developed by Box and Jenkins (1970) based solely on the past behavior of the variable being modeled/forecast. As we are in a data-rich environment and the economies and financial markets are more integrated than ever before, the quantitative methods in business and finance has increased substantially in recent years. This paper investigates the limitation of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in financial and monetary economics using the behavior of BET Index and EUR/RON exchange rates, respectively. Two important features discovered in the analysis of financial time series in this paper are fat-tails (large losses or gains are coming at a higher probability than the normal distribution would suggest) and volatility clustering, these empirical properties can't be captured by integrated ARMA models, hence the limitation of these models.
International Conference on Informatics in Economy, May 21, 2020
Targeted marketing based on data mining techniques can help the companies to understand their cur... more Targeted marketing based on data mining techniques can help the companies to understand their current and future customers in their efforts to deliver them best products and services. Artificial Neural Networks as universal approximators have the capability to find patters in data for delivering benchmark results in various domains for various classification or regression problems. Considering the digital transformation, available data and available communication channels between suppliers and customers it is becoming easier to identify the right customers and more cost effective to target then only. Technology advance and competition creates the premises for both success and failure to be just a matter of tuning the models in the best way for the selected use case. Moreover, it is not only about the industry. It is about the Artificial Neural Networks understanding added to the subject matter experts knowledge and experience. Moreover, Artificial Neural Networks can be applied with success in many other areas rather than marketing. Usually the limitations are not given by Artificial Neural Networks intrinsic characteristics but by the use case itself. This paper may engage marketing analysts or enthusiasts in using Artificial Neural Networks in their real-world use cases. Covering a wide range of knowledge from Artificial Neural Networks fundamentals to hyperparameter fine tuning and model evaluation being a guide for marketing practitioners in deploying their own solutions for data driven marketing campaigns.
În această lucrare, este pusă în discuţie terminologia utilizată în noul domeniu, numit "economie... more În această lucrare, este pusă în discuţie terminologia utilizată în noul domeniu, numit "economie comportamentală" și câţiva dintre adepţii săi. Economia comportamentală, în modalitatea de plată primară, utilizată pentru furnizorii de asistență medicală spitalicească, numită DRG, este discutată în trei subsecțiuni ale acestei cercetări, cu câteva reprezentări în domeniu. În multe situații, economia comportamentală devine psihologie economică. Unii dintre factorii psihologici, care au impact asupra agenților economici din sistemul de sănătate, sunt stabiliți și indicatorii principali de performanță ai cunoașterii oricărui spital sunt identificați și calculați în prezenta lucrare, pentru a oferi o imagine de ansamblu în domeniu. Aceştia au fost supuşi atenţiei, prin analiza statistică matematică privind determinarea intervalului de încredere a duratei medii de spitalizare a unui compartiment cu profil chirurgical. O serie de concluzii au fost trase la sfârșitul acestui studiu, lăsând sesiunea deschisă pentru o viitoare cercetare.
We are focusing to analyse the economic activity from the industry branch in Romania with aggrega... more We are focusing to analyse the economic activity from the industry branch in Romania with aggregated data at sectorial level, on the years 2000-2001. The main purpose is to reveal aspects related to the implications which could arise because of the relations between a variables set which tries to explain the firms' activity efficiency from a certain industrial sector and a variables set which tries to describe the competition degree into and out of the industry sectors .Our researches are based on data analysis techniques, especially: Principle Components Analysis and Taxonomy Objects. The paper it would be a great source of information when the governmental authority would want to take decisions on applying certain increasing efficiency policies in economic activity from industry, especially these years when our country tries to make significant progresses on the adhering to European Union. 11.50-12.10 2. Efficiency estimates through stochastic production frontier for Swedish banks with exogenous influence of IT expenditure
Uncertainty is given because we don't know the nature state event. The company can only estimate ... more Uncertainty is given because we don't know the nature state event. The company can only estimate the demand of policies in order to estimate the received premiums. If the insurance company doesn't choose correctly the alternative and the number and the damages will be greater then what it was estimated, then it will come to the point of not being able to pay all the damages. Because of the adverse selection, the insurer meets uncertainty in every day life. It is well known the fact that persons who have a higher risk of producing the insured event, they also have a higher inclination towards contracting insurance.
The present article makes an analysis of the products spatial differentiation, taking into co nsi... more The present article makes an analysis of the products spatial differentiation, taking into co nsideration the case of the linear city. In this context, we consider different types of transportation costs, whic h influence the profit size
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Jun 1, 2008
Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which charac... more Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), May 1, 2007
etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The p... more etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: "Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model" and "Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model". The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.
Solar radiation is among the renewable resources on which modern society relies to partially repl... more Solar radiation is among the renewable resources on which modern society relies to partially replace the existing fossil fuelbased energy resources. Awareness of how the energy is produced must complement awareness of how it is consumed. In the economic context, the gains derive from predictability across the entire supply chain. This paper represents a compressive study on how standard recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory, and gated recurrent units can be used to forecast power production of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This approach can be used for other use cases in solar or even wind power prediction since it provides solid fundamentals for working with weather data and recurrent artificial neural networks, being the core of any smart grid management system. Few studies have explored how these models should be implemented, and even fewer have compared the outcomes of different model types. The data used consist of weather and power production data with a one-hour resolution. The data were further pre-processed to unveil the maximum information. The most effective model parameters were selected to make the forecast. Solar energy plays a key role among other renewable energy sources in the European Union's climate action and the European Green Deal. Under these initiatives, important regulations are implemented and financial resources made available for those who possess the capabilities required to solve the open points. The much-needed predictability that gives the flexibility and robustness needed for deploying and adopting more renewable technologies can be ensured by utilizing a neural-based predictive approach.
The aim of the paper is to study the aspects of economic growth - as development support for a co... more The aim of the paper is to study the aspects of economic growth - as development support for a country, and to present the causes which generate the cycles in the evolution of the economic growth rhythm. The theoretical analysis is supported with examples of the classic models, the data thereof being offered by the National Bank of Romania, the National Commission of Statistics, Reports of international structures concerning Romania, i.e.Furthermore, there is an analysis of the monetary mass depending on the GDP and the interest rate as well as a description of the monetary policy the National Bank of Romania has chosen to pursue.The new monetary policy the National Bank has adopted aims directly at inflation which implies the recognition of the importance of the inflationist phenomenon in modern economies and, implicitly, that the most efficient way for the monetary policy to sustain the general desire of a long-term economic growth is to secure price stability.
The aim of the international conference ESPERA 2016 was to present and evaluate the economic scie... more The aim of the international conference ESPERA 2016 was to present and evaluate the economic scientific research portfolio, to argue and substantiate Romanian development strategies – including European and global best practices. The plenary session and the parallel sections were centered on priority research directions in the field of economic and social sciences of the 'Romanian Academy Research Strategy 2014-2020', respectively: Romania's sustainable economic and social development - models, scenarios, evaluations; natural resources patrimony - costs and benefits of its valorization; knowledge, innovation, smart development and human capital; economy dynamics and structural changes for a competitive growth; European integration and globalization - new challenges; economic instability and stabilization policies; development and improvement of economic and social forecasting tools; food safety and security – challenges for agriculture economic development; assessment of economic, social and political experiences and thoughts; contributions to the New Encyclopedia of Romania; quality of life and social policies evaluations; demographic facts and figures. The edition 2016 of ESPERA intend to explore two-three main concerns of the researchers in the field of economic and social sciences regarding the future development challenges of the Romania and Europe and the possible solutions identified.
Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, Dec 18, 2018
Migration is one of the consequences of globalization, alongside production internationalization,... more Migration is one of the consequences of globalization, alongside production internationalization, the new global division of labor and the markets globalization. Economic and social impact of migration is significant and Romania has faced and continues to face the negative consequences of migration of young educated people, and social problems due to families where one or both parents are working abroad and children remain in the care of relatives. The authors analyze the economic impact of migration at European Union level, by using statistical regression models to allow decision-makers to take the most appropriate measures in the context of globalization. The main indicators that were used are the net remittances of workers and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The main conclusion of the research is that the net remittances of workers and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita are moving proportionally, therefore a positive net remission is a prerequisite to improve the economic performance, and the negative net remittances of labor, have negative effects on the economic performance. By connecting this result with the analysis of migration flows which affect Romania, the authors reached the conclusion that the negative economic impact of migration on the
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), 2006
The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformati... more The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation bring a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.
The study aims to present a series of results related to the medical research in Romania, taking ... more The study aims to present a series of results related to the medical research in Romania, taking into account the data obtained by the application of a statistical survey to the medical staff with higher education in Bucharest. Based on the data series resulting from the application of this questionnaire we obtained information related to the medical staff opinion on issues regarding the following: the organization of research at the universities, the quality of the documentation sources available to medical personnel that work in the medical research, the quality of the national and international academic, the endowment of medical research laboratories with equipment to enable support of the medical research, the quality of the databases that support the development of quantitative medical studies.
The Society perceives the dangers as threats, challenges and risks. Risk is defined as direct and... more The Society perceives the dangers as threats, challenges and risks. Risk is defined as direct and assumed threat. Most of all, the highest risks in modern society are likely asymmetric. They include the whole sphere of human activity and they are accompanying man in almost everything he does. As long as the world is diversifying and is ranking, the more numerous and more acute become asymmetric threats. Because asymmetry is difference, meaning the possibility to act differently and to react differently, in order to capture, destroy, win strategic initiative and freedom of action and, therefore, to defeat. We present a series of theoretical issues related to risk analysis and risk analysis techniques: scenario technique and probability-impact matrix technique. In the second part of the paper an analysis of critical infrastructure and types of asymmetric risks are presented. The third part of the paper presents a study of portfolio risk using GARCH models (1.1), considering the daily returns of RASDAQ-C and BET indexes and the RON / USD exchange rate, and also an analyses of the achieved results will be considered.
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Papers by Stelian Stancu