Joanna House

University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences, Faculty Member

University of Exeter, Geography, Faculty Member

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Phone: 07986860335
Address: School of Geographical Sciences
University of Bristol, University Road
Bristol BS8 1SS

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David Seamon

Kansas State University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

Md. Khairul Alam

Murdoch University

Jens Marquardt

Technische Universität Darmstadt

Ahmed Amer

Port Said University

Mayokun Okelola

FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, MINNA-NIGERIA

Syukri Muhammad Nur

Darma Persada University

Long T Pham

Oregon Institute of Technology

Anthony Rennie

The University of Sheffield

Manuela Achilles

University of Virginia

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Quantifying the spatial patterns of Secondary Forest carbon sequestration potential in the Brazilian Amazon

Overall, global forests are expected to contribute about a quarter of pledged mitigation... more Overall, global forests are expected to contribute about a quarter of pledged mitigation under the Paris Agreement, by limiting deforestation and by encouraging forest regrowth.Secondary Forests in the Neo-tropics have a large climate mitigation potential, given their ability to sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. However, this rate does not account for the spatial patterns in secondary forest regrowth influenced by regional and local-scale environmental and anthropogenic disturbance drivers.Secondary Forests in the Brazilian Amazon are expected to play a key role in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, however, the Amazon is a large and geographically complex region such that regrowth rates are not uniform across the biome.To understand the impact of key drivers we used a multi-satellite data approach with the aim of understanding the spatial variations in secondary forest regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon. We mapped secondary forest area and age using a land-use-land-cover dataset &#8211; MapBiomas &#8211; and, combined with the European Space Agency Aboveground Carbon dataset, constructed regional regrowth curves for the year 2017.We found large variations in the regrowth rates across the Brazilian Amazon due to large-scale environmental drivers such as rainfall and shortwave-radiation. Regrowth rates are similar to previous pan-Amazonian estimates in the North-West (3 &#177;1.0 MgC ha-1 yr-1), which are double than those in the North-East Amazon (1.3 &#177;0.3 MgC ha-1 yr-1). The impact of anthropogenic disturbances, namely fire and repeated deforestation prior to the most recent regrowth only reduces the regrowth by 20% in the North-West (2.4 &#177;0.8 MgC ha-1 yr-1) compared to 55% in the North-East (0.8 &#177;0.8 MgC ha-1 yr-1). Overall, secondary forest carbon stock of 294 TgC in the year 2017, could have been 8% higher with avoided fires and repeat deforestation. We found that the 2017 area of secondary forest, which occupies only ~4% of the Brazilian Amazon biome, can contribute significantly (~5.5%) to Brazil&#8217;s net emissions reduction targets, accumulating ~19.0 TgC yr-1until 2030 if the current area of secondary forest is maintained (13.8 Mha). However,this value reduces rapidly to less than 1% if only secondary forests older than 20 years are preserved (2.2 Mha).Preserving the remaining old-growth forest carbon stock and implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forest areas are key to realising the potential of secondary forest as a nature-based climate change mitigation solution.

The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

Biomass & Bioenergy, Mar 1, 2006

We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, bas... more We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change.

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