I work in three main areas: natural capital and ecosystem services with a current focus on urban NBS; coastal systems with a focus on sand dune ecology, management and restoration; air pollution impacts on natural systems
The Handbook aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive NBS impact assessment framework... more The Handbook aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive NBS impact assessment framework, and a robust set of indicators and methodologies to assess impacts of nature-based solutions across 12 societal challenge areas: Climate Resilience; Water Management; Natural and Climate Hazards; Green Space Management; Biodiversity; Air Quality; Place Regeneration; Knowledge and Social Capacity Building for Sustainable Urban Transformation; Participatory Planning and Governance; Social Justice and Social Cohesion; Health and Well-being; New Economic Opportunities and Green Jobs. Indicators have been developed collaboratively by representatives of 17 individual EU-funded NBS projects and collaborating institutions such as the EEA and JRC, as part of the European Taskforce for NBS Impact Assessment, with the four-fold objective of: serving as a reference for relevant EU policies and activities; orient urban practitioners in developing robust impact evaluation frameworks for nature-based...
Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon... more Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon in the atmosphere. Tropical forests present an important opportunity, as they take up and store large amounts of carbon. It is often suggested that forests with high biodiversity have large stocks and high rates of carbon uptake. Evidence is, however, scattered across geographic areas and scales, and it remains unclear whether biodiversity is just a co‐benefit or also a requirement for the maintenance of carbon stocks and uptake. Here, we perform a quantitative review of empirical studies that analyzed the relationships between plant biodiversity attributes and carbon stocks and carbon uptake in tropical forests. Our results show that biodiversity attributes related to species, traits or structure significantly affect carbon stocks or uptake in 64% of the evaluated relationships. Average vegetation attributes (community‐mean traits and structural attributes) are more important for carbon stocks, whereas variability in vegetation attributes (i.e., taxonomic diversity) is important for both carbon stocks and uptake. Thus, different attributes of biodiversity have complementary effects on carbon stocks and uptake. These biodiversity effects tend to be more often significant in mature forests at broad spatial scales than in disturbed forests at local spatial scales. Biodiversity effects are also more often significant when confounding variables are not included in the analyses, highlighting the importance of performing a comprehensive analysis that adequately accounts for environmental drivers. In summary, biodiversity is not only a co‐benefit, but also a requirement for short‐ and long‐term maintenance of carbon stocks and enhancement of uptake. Climate change policies should therefore include the maintenance of multiple attributes of biodiversity as an essential requirement to achieve long‐term climate change mitigation goals
Over the last decade many ecosystem service (ES) models have been developed to inform sustainable... more Over the last decade many ecosystem service (ES) models have been developed to inform sustainable land and water use planning. However, uncertainty in the predictions of any single model in any specific situation can undermine their utility for decision-making. One solution is creating ensemble predictions, which potentially increase accuracy, but how best to create ES ensembles to reduce uncertainty is unknown and untested. Using ten models for carbon storage and nine for water supply, we tested a series of ensemble approaches against measured validation data in the UK. Ensembles had at minimum a 5–17% higher accuracy than a randomly selected individual model and, in general, ensembles weighted for among model consensus provided better predictions than unweighted ensembles. To support robust decision-making for sustainable development and reducing uncertainty around these decisions, our analysis suggests various ensemble methods should be applied depending on data quality, for example if validation data are available
Invasive non-native species and global warming are two of the greatest components of global ecosy... more Invasive non-native species and global warming are two of the greatest components of global ecosystem change. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, is the world most cultivated shellfish and was introduced throughout the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) under the premise it could not complete its life cycle. Recent warming trends have changed this and wild populations can be found as far north as Nordic Scandinavia. Under the RCP8.5 concentration pathway, we predict that the majority of NWES coastline will be within C. gigas’s thermal recruitment niche by 2100. Given the widespread occurrence of current naturalized C. gigas populations, its large larval dispersal potential and a lack of feasible management solutions, C. gigas will likely undergo a considerable range expansion this century. The time taken to reach maturity is predicted to decrease by up to 60 days, which may lead to precocious spawning events, facilitating expansion further. Crassostrea gigas can form extensive reefs...
Data and associated code for data analysis for the paper - Local environmental factors control al... more Data and associated code for data analysis for the paper - Local environmental factors control alpha and beta diversity of coastal dune slack plant communities.
Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant threat to semi-natural habitats and species ... more Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant threat to semi-natural habitats and species in the UK, resulting in on-going erosion of habitat quality and declines in many species of high conservation value. The project focused on impacts and remedies for designated conservation sites, especially Natura 2000 sites protected under the EU Habitats Directive. However, the approach and certainly the measures could be equally applied to other areas of high conservation value. Evidence was drawn together to develop a framework for identifying key N threats at individual sites as a basis to target mitigation options in the context of potential legislative, voluntary and financial instruments.
Groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) face multiple pressures from both atmospher... more Groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) face multiple pressures from both atmospheric and terrestrial sources, resulting in the loss of protected habitats and biodiversity. One of the most critical issues facing GWDTEs in England and Wales is anthropogenic pollution from nutrients. Anthropogenic nutrients can originate from a wide range of sources including industry and agriculture, and can be transmitted via multiple pathways including; surface waters, catchment runoff, groundwater, and atmospheric deposition. These multiple pathways pose a problem for environmental regulators and managers. In order to reduce nutrient damage to wetlands, environmental regulators must first have the tools to identify the dominant sources and pathways (source attribution) of nutrients. Environmental regulators need cost effective tools to identify the most common source of nutrients in order to implement effective measures to reduce pressures. However there are a lack of source apportio...
Urban areas are particular hotspots receiving primary and secondary pollutants from rural areas, ... more Urban areas are particular hotspots receiving primary and secondary pollutants from rural areas, as well as locally originated pollutants from industry and traffic. Furthermore, high population densities lead to the greatest exposure of the population to air pollution in urban areas. Vegetation, and trees in particular, provide an ecosystem service by removing some of this pollution from the air, thereby reducing exposure of the population and leading to health benefits in terms of avoided mortality and morbidity. However, the magnitude of these benefits is contested. While a number of studies have quantified the amount of pollution removal by trees most use a static approach, assessing pollutant removal and the resulting benefit in situ and for pollutants in isolation. These approaches usually do not take account of the dynamic interactions among pollutants and meteorology, which govern spatial patterns of pollutant removal, or pollutant transport, which determines where the benefi...
These datasets are those described in Dwyer et al. 2021. Environmental modifiers of the relations... more These datasets are those described in Dwyer et al. 2021. Environmental modifiers of the relationship between water table depth and Ellenberg's indicator of soil moisture. The authors are currently undertaking further analysis of these data, but are open to further collaborative projects. If you are intersted in using these data, please contact authors.
The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air po... more The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.
The Handbook aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive NBS impact assessment framework... more The Handbook aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive NBS impact assessment framework, and a robust set of indicators and methodologies to assess impacts of nature-based solutions across 12 societal challenge areas: Climate Resilience; Water Management; Natural and Climate Hazards; Green Space Management; Biodiversity; Air Quality; Place Regeneration; Knowledge and Social Capacity Building for Sustainable Urban Transformation; Participatory Planning and Governance; Social Justice and Social Cohesion; Health and Well-being; New Economic Opportunities and Green Jobs. Indicators have been developed collaboratively by representatives of 17 individual EU-funded NBS projects and collaborating institutions such as the EEA and JRC, as part of the European Taskforce for NBS Impact Assessment, with the four-fold objective of: serving as a reference for relevant EU policies and activities; orient urban practitioners in developing robust impact evaluation frameworks for nature-based...
Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon... more Impacts of climate change require that society urgently develops ways to reduce amounts of carbon in the atmosphere. Tropical forests present an important opportunity, as they take up and store large amounts of carbon. It is often suggested that forests with high biodiversity have large stocks and high rates of carbon uptake. Evidence is, however, scattered across geographic areas and scales, and it remains unclear whether biodiversity is just a co‐benefit or also a requirement for the maintenance of carbon stocks and uptake. Here, we perform a quantitative review of empirical studies that analyzed the relationships between plant biodiversity attributes and carbon stocks and carbon uptake in tropical forests. Our results show that biodiversity attributes related to species, traits or structure significantly affect carbon stocks or uptake in 64% of the evaluated relationships. Average vegetation attributes (community‐mean traits and structural attributes) are more important for carbon stocks, whereas variability in vegetation attributes (i.e., taxonomic diversity) is important for both carbon stocks and uptake. Thus, different attributes of biodiversity have complementary effects on carbon stocks and uptake. These biodiversity effects tend to be more often significant in mature forests at broad spatial scales than in disturbed forests at local spatial scales. Biodiversity effects are also more often significant when confounding variables are not included in the analyses, highlighting the importance of performing a comprehensive analysis that adequately accounts for environmental drivers. In summary, biodiversity is not only a co‐benefit, but also a requirement for short‐ and long‐term maintenance of carbon stocks and enhancement of uptake. Climate change policies should therefore include the maintenance of multiple attributes of biodiversity as an essential requirement to achieve long‐term climate change mitigation goals
Over the last decade many ecosystem service (ES) models have been developed to inform sustainable... more Over the last decade many ecosystem service (ES) models have been developed to inform sustainable land and water use planning. However, uncertainty in the predictions of any single model in any specific situation can undermine their utility for decision-making. One solution is creating ensemble predictions, which potentially increase accuracy, but how best to create ES ensembles to reduce uncertainty is unknown and untested. Using ten models for carbon storage and nine for water supply, we tested a series of ensemble approaches against measured validation data in the UK. Ensembles had at minimum a 5–17% higher accuracy than a randomly selected individual model and, in general, ensembles weighted for among model consensus provided better predictions than unweighted ensembles. To support robust decision-making for sustainable development and reducing uncertainty around these decisions, our analysis suggests various ensemble methods should be applied depending on data quality, for example if validation data are available
Invasive non-native species and global warming are two of the greatest components of global ecosy... more Invasive non-native species and global warming are two of the greatest components of global ecosystem change. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, is the world most cultivated shellfish and was introduced throughout the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) under the premise it could not complete its life cycle. Recent warming trends have changed this and wild populations can be found as far north as Nordic Scandinavia. Under the RCP8.5 concentration pathway, we predict that the majority of NWES coastline will be within C. gigas’s thermal recruitment niche by 2100. Given the widespread occurrence of current naturalized C. gigas populations, its large larval dispersal potential and a lack of feasible management solutions, C. gigas will likely undergo a considerable range expansion this century. The time taken to reach maturity is predicted to decrease by up to 60 days, which may lead to precocious spawning events, facilitating expansion further. Crassostrea gigas can form extensive reefs...
Data and associated code for data analysis for the paper - Local environmental factors control al... more Data and associated code for data analysis for the paper - Local environmental factors control alpha and beta diversity of coastal dune slack plant communities.
Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant threat to semi-natural habitats and species ... more Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant threat to semi-natural habitats and species in the UK, resulting in on-going erosion of habitat quality and declines in many species of high conservation value. The project focused on impacts and remedies for designated conservation sites, especially Natura 2000 sites protected under the EU Habitats Directive. However, the approach and certainly the measures could be equally applied to other areas of high conservation value. Evidence was drawn together to develop a framework for identifying key N threats at individual sites as a basis to target mitigation options in the context of potential legislative, voluntary and financial instruments.
Groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) face multiple pressures from both atmospher... more Groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) face multiple pressures from both atmospheric and terrestrial sources, resulting in the loss of protected habitats and biodiversity. One of the most critical issues facing GWDTEs in England and Wales is anthropogenic pollution from nutrients. Anthropogenic nutrients can originate from a wide range of sources including industry and agriculture, and can be transmitted via multiple pathways including; surface waters, catchment runoff, groundwater, and atmospheric deposition. These multiple pathways pose a problem for environmental regulators and managers. In order to reduce nutrient damage to wetlands, environmental regulators must first have the tools to identify the dominant sources and pathways (source attribution) of nutrients. Environmental regulators need cost effective tools to identify the most common source of nutrients in order to implement effective measures to reduce pressures. However there are a lack of source apportio...
Urban areas are particular hotspots receiving primary and secondary pollutants from rural areas, ... more Urban areas are particular hotspots receiving primary and secondary pollutants from rural areas, as well as locally originated pollutants from industry and traffic. Furthermore, high population densities lead to the greatest exposure of the population to air pollution in urban areas. Vegetation, and trees in particular, provide an ecosystem service by removing some of this pollution from the air, thereby reducing exposure of the population and leading to health benefits in terms of avoided mortality and morbidity. However, the magnitude of these benefits is contested. While a number of studies have quantified the amount of pollution removal by trees most use a static approach, assessing pollutant removal and the resulting benefit in situ and for pollutants in isolation. These approaches usually do not take account of the dynamic interactions among pollutants and meteorology, which govern spatial patterns of pollutant removal, or pollutant transport, which determines where the benefi...
These datasets are those described in Dwyer et al. 2021. Environmental modifiers of the relations... more These datasets are those described in Dwyer et al. 2021. Environmental modifiers of the relationship between water table depth and Ellenberg's indicator of soil moisture. The authors are currently undertaking further analysis of these data, but are open to further collaborative projects. If you are intersted in using these data, please contact authors.
The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air po... more The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.
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Papers by Laurence Jones