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Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause

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Abstract

The Eurasian spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, is one of the major forest insect pests in Europe, capable of mass-attacking and killing mature Norway spruce trees. The initiation and development of a new generation are strongly controlled by temperature and a warmer climate may affect the number of generations that is produced per year and hence the outbreak dynamics. Experimental knowledge regarding reproductive diapause adaptations is, however, too sparse for large-scale assessments of future trends. We developed a model description of diapause induction, and used gridded observational temperature data to evaluate multiple combinations of day length and temperature thresholds to find the model parameterisation most coherent with I. typographus monitoring data from Scandinavia. The selected model parameterisation is supported by European literature data, though further experimental studies are required to analyse population specific adaptations and capacity for adjustments to changing climate conditions. Implementing the model description of reproductive diapause in a temperature driven model of bark beetle phenology (swarming activity and development from egg to mature bark beetle), enabled us to assess the length of the late summer swarming period that is a critical determinant of the risk of forest damage. By using regional climate model data we show that higher temperatures can result in increased frequency and length of late summer swarming events, producing a second generation in southern Scandinavia and a third generation in lowland parts of central Europe. Reproductive diapause will not prevent the occurrence of an additional generation per year, but the day length cues may restrict the length of the late summer swarming period.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Division of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden

    Anna Maria Jönsson

  2. Department of Agriculture and Ecology, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Thorvaldsensvej 40, 1871, Frederiksberg C., Denmark

    Susanne Harding

  3. Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, Postboks 115, 1431, Ås, Norway

    Paal Krokene, Holger Lange & Bjørn Økland

  4. Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden

    Åke Lindelöw & Leif Martin Schroeder

  5. Forest & Landscape, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958, Frederiksberg C., Denmark

    Hans Peter Ravn

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  1. Anna Maria Jönsson
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  2. Susanne Harding
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  3. Paal Krokene
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Correspondence to Anna Maria Jönsson.

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Jönsson, A.M., Harding, S., Krokene, P. et al. Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause. Climatic Change 109, 695–718 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0038-4

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