Abstract
Smart Grid is emerging as one of the most promising technologies that will provide several improvements over the traditional power grid. Providing availability is a significant concern for the power sector, and to achieve an uninterrupted power supply accurate forecasting is essential. In the implementation of the future Smart Grid, efficient forecasting plays a crucial role, as the electric infrastructure will work, more and more, by continuously adjusting the electricity generation to the total end-use load. Electricity consumption depends on a vast domain of randomly fluctuating influential parameters, and every region has its own set of parameters depending on the demographic, socioeconomic, and climate conditions of that region. Even for the same set of parameters, the degree of influence on power consumption may vary over different sectors, like, residential, commercial, and industrial. Thus it is essential to quantify the dependency level for each parameter. We have proposed a generalized mid-term forecasting model for the industrial sector to predict the quarterly energy usage of a vast geographic region accurately with a diverse range of influential parameters. The proposed model is built and tested on real-life datasets of industrial users of various states in the U.S.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.bea.gov
National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
U.S. EIA, Today in Energy. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=8110
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electricity. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/backissues.html
U.S. Bureau of Labor. https://www.bls.gov/
U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/
Weka 3.8.1: Data mining software in java. https://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/
Weka 3: data mining software in java, Class Random Forest. http://weka.sourceforge.net/doc.dev/weka/classifiers/trees/RandomForest.html
U.S. Energy Information Administration: Industrial sector Energy Consumption. International Energy Outlook, pp. 113–126 (2016)
Agrawal, R.K.: Long-term load forecasting with hourly predictions based on long-short-term-memory networks. In: IEEE Texas Power and Energy Conference (TPEC), March 2018
Ali, S.M., Mehmood, C.A., Khan, B., Jawad, M.: Stochastic and statistical analysis of utility revenues and weather data analysis for consumer demand estimation in smart grids. PLoSONE 11(6), e0156849 (2016)
Ang, B.W., Xu, X.Y.: Tracking industrial energy efficiency trends using index decomposition analysis. Energy Econ. 40, 1014–1021 (2013)
Bakker, V.: Triana a control strategy for smart grids forecasting, planning and real-time control. Ph.D thesis. ISBN 978-90-365-3314-0, ISSN 1381-3617. https://doi.org/10.3990/1.9789036533140
Barger, D.J.: MGE experience with INSITE spatial load forecasting. In: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, October 2011
Chakraborty, M., Chaki, N., Das, S.K.: A medium-term load forecasting model for smart grid with effect quantification of socio-economic predictor parameters. In: Revision resubmitted to Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks (SEGAN) Journal. Elsevier, April 2019. ISSN 2352–4677
Dong, X., Qian, L., Huang, L.: Short-term load forecasting in smart grid: a combined CNN and k-means clustering approach. In: IEEE International Conference on Big Data and Smart Computing (BigComp), pp. 119–125, March 2017
Ghalehkhondabi, I., Ardjmand, E., Weckman, G.R.: an overview of energy demand forecasting methods published in 2005–2015. Energy Syst. 8(2), 411–447 (2017)
Hong, T., Gui, M., Baran, M.E., Willis, H.L.: Modeling and forecasting hourly electric load by multiple linear regression with interactions. In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, USA, pp. 1–8 (2010)
Huang, Q., Li, Y., Liu, S., Liu, P.: Short term load forecasting based on wavelet decomposition and random forest. In: Workshop on Smart Internet of Things, SmartIoT, p. 2 (2017)
Khodayar, M.E., Wu, H.: Demand forecasting in the smart grid paradigm: features and challenges. Electr. J. 28(6), 51–62 (2015)
Lee, W., Hong, J.: A hybrid dynamic and fuzzy time series model for mid-term power load forecasting. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 64, 1057–1062 (2015)
Mate, A., Peral, J., Ferrandez, A., Gil, D., Trujillo, J.: A hybrid integrated architecture for energy consumption prediction. Future Gener. Comput. Syst. 63, 131–147 (2016)
Mehr, M.N., Samavati, F.F., Jeihoonian, M.: Annual energy demand estimation of Iran industrial sector by fuzzy regression and ARIMA. In: Eight International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, vol. 1, pp. 593–597. IEEE (2011)
Oliveira, E.M., Oliveira, F.L.C.: Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods. Energy 144, 776–788 (2018)
Socares, L.J., Mederios, M.C.: Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data. Int. J. Forecast. 24(4), 630–644 (2008)
Song, K., Baek, Y., Hong, D.H., Jang, G.: Short-term load forecasting for the holidays using fuzzy linear regression method. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 20(1), 96–101 (2005)
Wang, Y., Liu, M.: Short-term load forecasting with multi-source data using gated recurrent unit neural networks. Energies 11, 1138–1157 (2018)
Witten, I.H., Frank, E., Hal, M.A.: Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, 3rd edn. Morgan Kaufmann, Burlington (2004)
Xu, X.Y., Ang, B.W.: Multilevel index decomposition analysis: approaches and application. Energy Econ. 44, 375–382 (2014)
Zafer, D., Hunt, L.C.: Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: a structural time series analysis. Energy Econ. 33(3), 426–436 (2011)
Acknowledgments
This research work is supported by the projects “ADditive Manufacturing & Industry 4.0 as innovation Driver (ADMIN 4D)” and TEQIP Phase 3 in University of Calcutta (UCT-CU). Authors sincerely acknowledge and thank the projects for providing the support required for carrying out the research work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Chakraborty, M., Banerjee, S., Chaki, N. (2020). A Framework Towards Generalized Mid-term Energy Forecasting Model for Industrial Sector in Smart Grid. In: Hung, D., D´Souza, M. (eds) Distributed Computing and Internet Technology. ICDCIT 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11969. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36987-3_19
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36987-3_19
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-36986-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-36987-3
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)