Abstract
This paper compares two alternative probabilistic techniques for the adequacy assessment of small isolated wind/diesel systems. These approaches are the analytical convolution method and the sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The results obtained from these techniques are illustrated by a series of comparative studies. The main purpose of the paper is to investigate the accuracy of the analytical technique assuming that the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method would provide the most precise results. The results show that there is no significant difference between the outcomes of the two techniques. The paper also shows that a multi-state wind energy conversion system model can be used to produce reasonably accurate results in small isolated wind/diesel system adequacy studies.
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The work presented in this paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project # 50967002).
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Bagen, B., Gao, Y. & Li, W.Y. Comparison of alternative probabilistic techniques for adequacy assessment of small isolated wind/diesel systems. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 1, 129–134 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-010-0021-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-010-0021-x