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The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014

Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 492–495 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising at a faster rate during the satellite altimetry period (1993–2014) than previous decades, and is expected to accelerate further over the coming century1. However, the accelerations observed over century and longer periods2 have not been clearly detected in altimeter data spanning the past two decades3,4,5. Here we show that the rise, from the sum of all observed contributions to GMSL, increases from 2.2 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 in 1993 to 3.3 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 in 2014. This is in approximate agreement with observed increase in GMSL rise, 2.4 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 (1993) to 2.9 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 (2014), from satellite observations that have been adjusted for small systematic drift, particularly affecting the first decade of satellite observations6. The mass contributions to GMSL increase from about 50% in 1993 to 70% in 2014 with the largest, and statistically significant, increase coming from the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet, which is less than 5% of the GMSL rate during 1993 but more than 25% during 2014. The suggested acceleration and improved closure of the sea-level budget highlights the importance and urgency of mitigating climate change and formulating coastal adaption plans to mitigate the impacts of ongoing sea-level rise.

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Figure 1: Global mean sea level (GMSL).
Figure 2: Global mean steric sea level (GMSSL).
Figure 3: Global mean ocean mass change.
Figure 4: Instantaneous closure of the global mean sea-level budget.

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Acknowledgements

The work was done while X.C. visited CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (Hobart, Australia) as a CSIRO—Chinese Ministry of Education visiting scholar, sponsored by the China Scholarship Council. The authors thank A. B. A. Slangen for her useful comments and assistance with data sets. X.C. was supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China under Grant 2015CB953900 and the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41521091 and 41330960. The altimeter calibration and validation was supported by the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS)—IMOS is a national collaborative research infrastructure, supported by the Australian Government. J.A.C., X.Z., D.M. and B.L. were supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) and National Environmental Science Programme (NESP). M.A.K. was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (Project ID FT110100207).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Xianyao Chen

  2. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, Hobart, Tasmania, 7000, Australia

    Xuebin Zhang, Didier Monselesan & Benoit Legresy

  3. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, 2052, Australia

    John A. Church

  4. Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Land and Food, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia

    Christopher S. Watson & Matt A. King

  5. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA

    Christopher Harig

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Contributions

X.C., X.Z. and J.A.C. undertook the analysis of global sea-level budget and led the drafting of this manuscript. X.C. carried out the EEMD analysis and produced all figures. M.A.K. and C.S.W. undertook the adjustment of satellite altimeter data. X.Z. processed steric sea-level data sets; D.M. and B.L. processed the altimeter and terrestrial water storage data sets. C.H. processed the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet data sets. All authors contributed significantly to the drafting and revision of this manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xianyao Chen or Xuebin Zhang.

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Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, J. et al. The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014. Nature Clim Change 7, 492–495 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325

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