Breakup of Yugoslavia: Difference between revisions

{{Use dmy dates|date=DecemberJuly 20222024}}

| Image_Caption = {{Collapsible list

|{{legend0|#696cae|[[Republika Srpska (1992–1995)|Republika Srpska]] (1992–95; became part of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]])}}

|{{legend0|#474a80|[[Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] (1992–2003; namedreconstructed into the "[[State Union of Serbia and Montenegro]]" in 2003–06)}}

| partof = the [[Cold War]], the [[Revolutions of 1989|Revolutions of <br /> 1989]] and the [[Yugoslav Wars]]

| Thumb_Time =
| AKA =

| Location = '''{{flagiconflag|SFR Yugoslavia}} [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia#Federal units|former]] [[SFR Yugoslavia]]''':

* {{flagicon|SR Macedonia}}→{{flagicon image|Flag of Macedonia (1992–1995).svg|link = North Macedonia}} [[North Macedonia|Republic of Macedonia]]

|{{flagicon image|State Flag of Serbian Krajina (1991).svg|link = Republic of Serbian Krajina}} [[Republic of Serbian Krajina|Serbian Krajina]]

| Date = 25 June 1991&nbsp;– 27 April 1992<br />({{Age in years, months, weeks and days|month1=06|day1=25|year=1991|month2=04|day2=27|year2=1992}})| Result =

| Result = * [[Dissolution (politics)|BreakupDissolution]] of Yugoslavia and formation of independent [[Yugoslavia#New states|successor states]]

* Continuation of the [[Yugoslav Wars]] until 2001.

After a period of political and economic crisis in the 1980s, the constituent republics of the [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] split apart, but the unresolved issues caused a series of inter-ethnic [[Yugoslav Wars]]. The wars primarily [[Bosnian War|affected Bosnia and Herzegovina]], neighbouring parts of [[Croatian War of Independence|Croatia]] and, some years later, [[Kosovo War|Kosovo]].

After the [[Allies of World War II|Allied]] victory in [[World War II]], Yugoslavia was set up as a federation of six republics, with borders drawn along ethnic and historical lines: [[SRSocialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina|Bosnia and Herzegovina]], [[SRSocialist Republic of Croatia|Croatia]], [[SRSocialist Republic of Macedonia|Macedonia]], [[SRSocialist Republic of Montenegro|Montenegro]], [[Socialist Republic of Serbia|Serbia]], and [[Socialist Republic of Slovenia|Slovenia]]. In addition, two autonomous provinces were established within Serbia: [[SAP Vojvodina|Vojvodina]] and [[SAP Kosovo|Kosovo]]. Each of the republics had its own branch of the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] party and a ruling elite, and any tensions were solved on the federal level. The Yugoslav model of state organisation, as well as a "middle way" between [[planned economy|planned]] and [[Economic liberalism|liberal economy]], had been a relative success, and the country experienced a period of strong economic growth and relative political stability up to the 1980s, under [[Josip Broz Tito]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Caesar |first=Faisal |date=23 June 2020 |title=The forgotten Yugoslavian side of Italia 90 |url=https://www.cricketsoccer.com/2020/06/23/the-forgotten-yugoslavian-side-of-italia-90/#:~:text=The%20Yugoslav%20model%20of%20state%20organization%2C%20as%20well,under%20the%20rule%20of%20president-for-life%20Josip%20Broz%20Tito. |website=[[Criketsoccer]]}}</ref> After his death in 1980, the weakened system of federal government was left unable to cope with rising economic and political challenges.

In the 1980s, [[Kosovo Albanians of Kosovo]] started to demand that their autonomous province be granted the status of a full constituent republic, starting with the [[1981 protests in Kosovo|1981 protests]]. Ethnic tensions between Albanians and [[Kosovo Serbs]] remained high over the whole decade, which resulted in the growth of Serb opposition to the high autonomy of provinces and ineffective system of consensus at the federal level across Yugoslavia, which were seen as an obstacle for Serb interests. In 1987, [[Slobodan Milošević]] came to power in Serbia, and through a series of populist moves acquired ''de facto'' control over Kosovo, Vojvodina, and Montenegro, garnering a high level of support among Serbs for his [[Centralisation|centralist]] policies. Milošević was met with opposition by party leaders of the western constituent republics of Slovenia and Croatia, who also advocated greater democratisation of the country in line with the [[Revolutions of 1989]] in [[Eastern Europe]]. The League of Communists of Yugoslavia dissolved in January 1990 along federal lines. Republican communist organisations became the separate socialist parties.

During 1990, the socialists (former communists) lost power to [[Separatism|ethnic separatist]] parties in the [[Elections in Yugoslavia|first multi-party elections]] held across the country, except in [[Serbia1990 andMontenegrin general election|Montenegro]] and in [[1990 Serbian general election|Serbia]], where Milošević and his allies won. Nationalist rhetoric on all sides became increasingly heated. Between June 1991 and April 1992, four constituent republics declared independence while SerbiaMontenegro and MontenegroSerbia remained federated. [[Germany]] took the initiative and recognized the independence of Croatia and Slovenia, but the status of ethnic Serbs outside Serbia and Montenegro, and that of ethnic Croats outside Croatia, remained unsolved. After a string of inter-ethnic incidents, the [[Yugoslav Wars]] ensued, first [[Croatian War inof CroatiaIndependence|in Croatia]] and then, most severely, in multi-ethnic [[Bosnian War|Bosnia and Herzegovina]]. The wars left economic and political damage in the region that is still felt decades later.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/years-later-bosnia-still-struggling-with-the-aftermath-of-war|title=Decades later, Bosnia still struggling with the aftermath of war|date=19 November 2017|website=PBS NewsHour}}</ref> On April 27, 1992, the Federal Council of the Assembly of the SFRY, based on the decision of the [[National Assembly (Serbia)|Assembly]] of the Republic of Serbia and the [[Parliament of Montenegro|Assembly]] of Montenegro, adopted the [[1992 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia|Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]], which formally ended the breakup.

Yugoslavia occupied a significant portion of the [[Balkans|Balkan Peninsula]], including a strip of land on the east coast of the [[Adriatic Sea]], stretching southward from the [[Gulf of Trieste|Bay of Trieste]] in Central Europe to the mouth of [[BojanaBuna (riverAdriatic Sea)|Bojana]] as well as [[Lake Prespa]] inland, and eastward as far as the [[Iron Gates]] on the [[Danube]] and [[Midžor]] in the [[Balkan Mountains]], thus including a large part of [[Southeast Europe]], a region with a history of ethnic conflict.

The Ustaše resolved that the Serbian minority were a [[fifth column]] of Serbian expansionism, and pursued a policy of persecution against the Serbs. The policy dictated that one-third of the Serbian minority were to be killed, one-third expelled, and one-third converted to [[Catholic Church in Croatia|Catholicism]] and assimilated as Croats. Conversely, theSerbian Royalist [[Chetniks]] pursued their own campaign of persecution against non-Serbs in parts of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]], [[Croatia]] and [[Sandžak]] per the [[Stevan Moljević|Moljević plan]] ("On Our State and Its Borders") and the [[Draža Mihailović#Bosnia|orders]] issues by [[Draža Mihailović]] which included "[t]he cleansing of all nation understandings and fighting".

Both Croats and Muslims were recruited as soldiers by the ''[[Schutzstaffel|SS]]'' (primarily in the [[13th Waffen Mountain Division of the SS Handschar (1st Croatian)|13th ''Waffen'' Mountain Division]]). At the same time, former royalist, General [[Milan Nedić]], was installed by the Axis as head of the [[Government of National Salvation|puppet government]] in the German-occupied area of Serbia, and local Serbs were recruited into the [[Gestapo]] and the [[Serbian Volunteer Corps (World War II)|Serbian Volunteer Corps]], which was linked to the German [[Waffen-SS]]. Both [[quisling]]s were confronted and eventually defeated by the communist-led, anti-fascist [[Partisans (Yugoslavia)|Partisan]] movement composed of members of all ethnic groups in the area, leading to the formation of the [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]].

The official Yugoslav post-war estimate of [[World War II casualties|victims]] in Yugoslavia during [[World War&nbsp;II]] was 1,704,000. Subsequent data gathering in the 1980s by historians [[Vladimir Žerjavić]] and [[Bogoljub Kočović]] showed that the actual number of dead was about 1&nbsp;million. Of that number, 330,000 to 390,000 ethnic Serbs perished from all causes in Croatia and Bosnia.<ref>Staff. [http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/article.php?lang=en&ModuleId=10005449 Jasenovac concentration camp] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090916030858/http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/article.php?lang=en&ModuleId=10005449 |date=16 September 2009 }}, [[Jasenovac, Sisak-Moslavina County|Jasenovac]], Croatia, Yugoslavia. On the website of the [[United States Holocaust Memorial Museum]].</ref> These same historians also established the deaths of 192,000 to 207,000 ethnic Croats and 86,000 to 103,000 Muslims from all affiliations and causes throughout Yugoslavia.{{sfn|Cohen|1996|page=109}}{{full citation needed|date=January 2022}}{{sfn|Žerjavić|1993}}

Prior to its collapse, Yugoslavia was a regional industrial power and an economic success. From 1960 to 1980, annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 6.1 percent, medical care was free, literacy was 91 percent, and life expectancy was 72 years.<ref>World Bank, World Development Report 1991, Statistical Annex, Tables 1 and 2, 1991.</ref> Prior to 1991, Yugoslavia's armed forces were amongst the best-equipped in Europe.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Small arms survey 2015 : weapons and the world.|isbn=9781107323636|location=[Cambridge, England]|oclc=913568550|last1=Survey|first1=Small Arms|date=5 July 2015}}</ref>

The central government's control began to be loosened due to increasing nationalist grievances and the Communist's Party's wish to support "national [[self determination]]". This resulted in Kosovo being turned into an autonomous region of Serbia, legislated by the [[1974 Yugoslav Constitution|1974 constitution]]. This constitution broke down powers between the capital and the autonomous regions in [[Vojvodina]] (an area of Yugoslavia with a large number of ethnic minorities) and Kosovo (with a large ethnic-[[Albanians|Albanian]] population).

The loosened control basically turned Yugoslavia into a ''de facto'' [[confederation|confederacy]], which also placed pressure on the legitimacy of the regime within the federation. Since the late 1970s a widening gap of economic resources between the developed and underdeveloped regions of Yugoslavia severely deteriorated the federation's unity.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15">Dejan {{harvnb|Jović. ''Yugoslavia: a state that withered away''. Purdue University Press, |2009. |p. =15}}</ref> The most developed republics, Croatia and Slovenia, rejected attempts to limit their autonomy as provided in the 1974 Constitution.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15" /> Public opinion in Slovenia in 1987 saw better economic opportunity in independence from Yugoslavia than within it.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15" /> There were also places that saw no economic benefit from being in Yugoslavia; for example, the autonomous province of Kosovo was poorly developed, and per capita GDP fell from 47 percent of the Yugoslav average in the immediate post-war period to 27 percent by the 1980s.<ref>Dejan {{harvnb|Jović. ''Yugoslavia: a state that withered away''. Purdue University Press, |2009. |pp. =15–16}}</ref> It highlighted the vast differences in the quality of life in the different republics.

The [[SFR Yugoslavia]] was a conglomeration of eight federated entities, roughly divided along ethnic lines, including six republics—republics:

* {{Flag|SR Croatia|name=Croatia}},

* {{Flag|SR Macedonia|name=Macedonia}},

* {{Flag|SR Montenegro|name=Montenegro}},

* {{Flag|SR Serbia|name=Serbia}} and

* {{Flag|SR Slovenia|name=Slovenia}},

—and twoTwo autonomous provinces within Serbia,:

* {{Flag|SAP Vojvodina|name=Vojvodina}} and

* {{Flag|SAP Kosovo|name=Kosovo}}.

On 4 May 1980, Tito's death was announced through state broadcasts across Yugoslavia. His death removed what many international political observers saw as Yugoslavia's main unifying force, and subsequently [[ethnic tension]] started to grow in Yugoslavia. The crisis that emerged in Yugoslavia was connected with the weakening of the [[Eastern Bloc|Communist states in Eastern Europe]] towards the end of the [[Cold War]], leading to the fall of the [[Berlin Wall]] in 1989. In Yugoslavia, the national communist party, officially called the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]], had lost its ideological base.<ref name="Pešić-USIP-LCY-potency">{{cite journal | publisher = [[United States Institute forof Peace]] | url = http://www.usip.org/publications/serbian-nationalism-and-origins-yugoslav-crisis | title = Serbian Nationalism and the Origins of the Yugoslav Crisis | first= Vesna | last=Pešić | author-link=Vesna Pešić | journal= Peaceworks | issue= 8 | page= 12 |date=April 1996 | access-date=10 December 2010}}</ref>

The historian [[Basil Davidson]] contends that the "recourse to 'ethnicity' as an explanation [of the conflict] is pseudo-scientific nonsense". Even the degree of linguistic and religious differences "have been less substantial than instant commentators routinely tell us". Between the two major communities, the Serbs and the Croats, Davidson argues, "the term 'ethnic cleansing' can have no sense at all".{{better sourcecitation needed|date=AugustNovember 20212023}} Davidson agrees with [[Susan Woodward]], an expert on Balkan affairs, who found the "motivating causes of the disintegration in economic circumstance and its ferocious pressures".<ref>{{citeCite journal |last=Davidson |first=Basil |date=23 May 1996 |title=Misunderstanding Yugoslavia<!-- this isn't the title of the book being reviewed--> |url=https://www.lrb.co.uk/v18/n10/basil-davidson/misunderstanding-yugoslavia |authorjournal=BasilLondon Review of Books Davidson|titlevolume=Misunderstanding18 Yugoslavia|issue=10}}<!-/ref> Likewise, Sabine Rutar states that, “while antagonistic representations of the ethnic-national thispast isn'tindeed were heavily (mis-)used during the titleconflict, one must be careful not to turn these forceful categories of thepractice into categories of historical analysis”.<ref>{{cite book being|last1=Rutar reviewed|first1=Sabine |editor1-last=Breuilly |editor1->first=John |title=The Oxford Handbook of the History of Nationalism |date=232013 May|publisher=Oxford University Press 1996|journallocation=LondonOxford Review| ofisbn=978-0-19-876820-3 Books|volume page=18526 |issue chapter=10Nationalism in Southeastern Europe, 1970-2000}}</ref>

A major problem for Yugoslavia was the heavy debt incurred in the 1970s, which proved to be difficult to repay in the 1980s.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |last=M. Cvikl |first=Milan |date=June 1996 |title=Former Yugoslavia's Debt Apportionment |url=https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/735471538244644355/pdf/Former-Yugoslavias-debt-apportionment.pdf |website=documents1.worldbank.org}}</ref> Yugoslavia's debt load, initially estimated at a sum equal to $6 billion U.S. dollars, instead turned out to be equivalent to $21 billion U.S. dollars, which was a colossal sum for a poor country.<ref name=":1" /> In 1984, the [[Presidency of Ronald Reagan|Reagan administration]] issued a [[Classified information in the United States|classified]] document, [[National Security Decision Directive]] 133, expressing concern that Yugoslavia's debt load might cause the country to align with the Soviet bloc.<ref>National Security Decision Directive 133, [https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/23-2222t.gif United States Policy Toward Yugoslavia], 14 March 1984</ref> The 1980s were a time of [[Austerity|economic austerity]] as the [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF) imposed stringent conditions on Yugoslavia, which caused much resentment toward the Communist elites who had so mismanaged the economy by recklessly borrowing money abroad.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The policies of austerity also led to uncovering much corruption on the part of the elites, most notably with the "Agrokomerc affair" of 1987, when the [[Agrokomerc]] enterprise of Bosnia turned out to be the centre of a vast nexus of corruption running all across Yugoslavia, and that the managers of Agrokomerc had issued promissory notes equivalent to almost US$1 billion<ref>{{citeCite news |authorlast=Tagliabue |first=John Tagliabue|urldate=5 https://apnews.com/article/b4a166e0ba4bded8f082cf8d0decfa57January 1989 |title= Agrokomerc Ex-Director Goes on Hunger Strike in Jail|date=5 January 1989|workurl=Associated Presshttps://apnews.com/article/b4a166e0ba4bded8f082cf8d0decfa57 News|access-date=10 September 2021 |work=[[Associated Press]]}}</ref> without collateral, forcing the state to assume responsibility for their debts when Agrokomerc finally collapsed.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The rampant corruption in Yugoslavia, of which the "Agrokomerc affair" was merely the most dramatic example, did much to discredit the Communist system, as it was revealed that the elites were living luxurious lifestyles, well beyond the means of ordinary people, with money stolen from the public purse during a time of austerity.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The problems imposed by heavy indebtedness and corruption had by the mid-1980s increasingly started to corrode the legitimacy of the Communist system, as ordinary people started to lose faith in the competence and honesty of the elites.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}}

A wave of major strikes developed in 1987–88 as workers demanded higher wages to compensate for inflation, as the IMF mandated the end of various [[Subsidy|subsidies]], and they were accompanied by denunciations of the entire system as corrupt.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Finally, the politics of austerity brought to the fore tensions between the well off "have" republics like Slovenia and Croatia versus the poorer "have not" republics like Serbia.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Both Croatia and Slovenia felt that they were paying too much money into the federal budget to support the "have not" republics, while Serbia wanted Croatia and Slovenia to pay more money into the federal budget to support them at a time of austerity.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387-388}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Increasingly, demands were voiced in Serbia for more centralisation in order to force Croatia and Slovenia to pay more into the federal budget, demands that were completely rejected in the "have" republics.<ref>{{Cite book |last=MACDONALDMacDonald |first=DAVIDDavid BRUCEBruce |title=Tito'sBalkan Yugoslaviaholocausts? Serbian and after:Croatian Communism, postvictim-Communism,centred propaganda and the war in Croatia |chapter=Tito's Yugoslavia and after |date=2002 |urlpublisher=https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt155jbrm.12Manchester |work=BalkanUniversity Holocausts?Press |pagesisbn=183–219978-0-7190-6466-1 |series=SerbianNew andapproaches Croatianto victimconflict centredanalysis propaganda|location=Manchester and; theNew warYork in: YugoslaviaNew York |publisherpages=Manchester183–219 University|chapter=Tito's PressYugoslavia and after |jstor=j.ctt155jbrm.12 |isbn=978-0-7190-6466-1 |access-date=2022-12-07}}</ref>

In 1990, US policy insisted on the [[shock therapy (economics)|shock therapy]] austerity programme that was meted out to the ex-[[Comecon]] countries. Such a programme had been advocated by the IMF and other organisations "as a condition for fresh injections of capital."<ref>{{citeCite news |authorlast=Tagliabue |first=John Tagliabue|date=6 December 1987 |title=Austerity and Unrest on Rise in Eastern Block |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/06/weekinreview/the-world-austerity-and-unrest-on-rise-in-eastern-bloc.html|title=Austerity and Unrest on Rise in Eastern Block |access-date=622 DecemberFebruary 2019 1987|newspaperwork=[[The New York Times|access-date=22 February 2019]]}}</ref>

[[File:Stevan Kragujevic, Slobodan Milosevic, portret (cropped).jpg|thumb|upright|Serbian President [[Slobodan Milošević]]'s unequivocal desire to uphold the unity of Serbs, a status which was threatened by each republic breaking away from the federation, in addition to his opposition to the Albanian authorities in Kosovo, further inflamed ethnic tensions.]]

The ruling party of SFR Yugoslavia was the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] (SKJ), a composite political party made-up of eight Leagues of Communists from the six republics and two autonomous provinces. The [[League of Communists of Serbia]] (SKS) governed SR Serbia. Riding the wave of nationalist sentiment and his new popularity gained in Kosovo, Slobodan Milošević (Chairman of the League of Communists of Serbia (SKS) since May 1986) became the most powerful politician in Serbia by defeating his former mentor President of Serbia [[Ivan Stambolic]] at the [[8th Sessionsession of the Central Committee of the League of Communists of Serbia]] on 23–24 September 1987. At a 1988 rally in Belgrade, Milošević made clear his perception of the situation facing SR Serbia in Yugoslavia, saying:

The government of Montenegro survived a coup d'état in October 1988,<ref>{{citeCite news |authorlast=Kamm |first=Henry Kamm |author-link = Henry Kamm |date=9 October 1988 |title=Yugoslav Police Fight Off A Siege in Provincial City |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1988/10/09/world/yugoslav-police-fight-off-a-siege-in-provincial-city.html?sq=Montenegro+protest&scp=26&st=nyt |titleaccess-date=Yugoslav2 PoliceFebruary Fight Off A Siege in Provincial City2010 |newspaperwork=[[The New York Times |date=9 October 1988 |access-date=2 February 2010]]}}</ref> but not a second one in January 1989.<ref>{{cite news |agency=[[Reuters]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/12/world/leaders-of-a-republic-in-yugoslavia-resign.html?sq=Titograd&scp=2&st=nyt |title=Leaders of a Republic in Yugoslavia Resign |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=12 January 1989 |access-date=7 February 2010 |archive-date=6 November 2012 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121106113747/http://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/12/world/leaders-of-a-republic-in-yugoslavia-resign.html}}</ref>

[[File:FranjoTudmanFranjo Tudjman 1995.JPGjpg|thumb|left|upright|Croatian President [[Franjo Tuđman]]]]

In the [[1990 Slovenian independence referendum]], held on 23 December 1990, a vast majority of residents voted for independence:<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=epern-ref-no-3.pdf&site=266 |title=REFERENDUM BRIEFING NO 3|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101218000730/http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sei/documents/slovenian3.pdf |archive-date=18 December 2010}}</ref> 88.5% of all electors (94.8% of those participating) voted for independence, which was declared on 25 June 1991.<ref name="Juberias">{{cite book|chapter-url=http://crnvo.me/docs/biblio_eng/p10.pdf |title=Legal Aspects for Referendum in Montenegro in the Context of International Law and Practice |date=November 2005 |chapter=Some legal (and political) considerations about the legal framework for referendum in Montenegro, in the light of European experiences and standards |last=Flores Juberías |first=Carlos |page=74 |publisher=Foundation Open Society Institute, Representative Office Montenegro |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120201134229/http://crnvo.me/docs/biblio_eng/p10.pdf |archive-date=1 February 2012 }}</ref><ref name="STAT11">{{citeCite book | chapter-url=http://www.stat.si/letopis/2011/05_11/05-11-11.htm |title=Statistični letopis 2011 |trans-titlepublisher=Statistical YearbookOffice 2011of the Republic of Slovenia |chapteryear=Volitve2011 |trans-chaptervolume=Elections15 |page=108 |publisher=Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia |worktrans-title=Statistical Yearbook 2011 |yearchapter=2011Volitve |volumetrans-chapter=15Elections |issn=1318-5403 |chapter-url=http://www.stat.si/letopis/2011/05_11/05-11-11.htm}}</ref>

In January 1991, the Yugoslav counter-intelligence service, [[KOS (Yugoslavia)|KOS]] (''Kontraobaveštajna služba''), displayed a video of a secret meeting (the "[[Špegelj Tapes]]") that they purported had happened some time in 1990 between the Croatian Defence Minister, [[Martin Špegelj]], and two other men.{{cn|date=December 2023}} Špegelj announced during the meeting that Croatia was at war with the [[Yugoslav People's Army]] (JNA, ''Jugoslovenska Narodna Armija'') and gave instructions about arms smuggling as well as methods of dealing with the Army's officers stationed in Croatian cities. The Army subsequently wanted to indict Špegelj for treason and illegal importation of arms, mainly from [[Hungary]].{{cn|date=December 2023}}

UN investigations found that no such forces were in Dubrovnik at the time.<ref name="ReferenceA">{{cite web|url=http://www.yorku.ca/soi/_Vol_5_1/_HTML/Pavlovic.html#fnB3|title=Pavlovic:" The Siege of Dubrovnik|work=yorku.ca}}</ref> [[Armed Forces of Croatia|Croatian Armed Forces]] presence increased later on. Montenegrin Prime Minister [[Milo Đukanović]], at the time an ally of Milošević, appealed to [[Montenegrin nationalism]], promising that the capture of Dubrovnik would allow the expansion of Montenegro into the city which he claimed was historically part of Montenegro, and denounced the present borders of Montenegro as being "drawn by the old and poorly educated [[Bolshevik]] cartographers".<ref name="yorku.ca" />

At the same time, the Serbian government contradicted its Montenegrin allies with claims by the Serbian Prime Minister [[Dragutin Zelenović]] that Dubrovnik was historically Serbian, not Montenegrin.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.yorku.ca/soi/_Vol_5_1/_HTML/Pavlovic.html#fnB28|title=Pavlovic: The Siege of Dubrovnik|work=yorku.ca}}</ref> The international media gave immense attention to [[Siege of Dubrovnik|bombardment of Dubrovnik]] and claimed this was evidence of Milosevic pursuing the creation of a [[Greater Serbia]] as Yugoslavia collapsed, presumably with the aid of the subordinate Montenegrin leadership of Bulatović and Serb nationalists in Montenegro to foster Montenegrin support for the retaking of Dubrovnik.<ref name="ReferenceAyorku.ca" />

[[File:Izetbegovic.jpg|thumb|upright|Bosnian Muslim Presidentleader [[Alija Izetbegović]]]]

[[File:Evstafiev-Radovan Karadzic 3MAR94.jpg|thumb|upright|Bosnian Serb Presidentleader [[Radovan Karadžić]]]]

While France, Britain and most other [[European Community]] member nations were still emphasizing the need to preserve the unity of Yugoslavia,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Drozdiak |first=William |date=1991-07-02 |title=GERMANYGermany CRITICIZESCriticizes EUROPEANEuropean COMMUNITYCommunity POLICYPolicy ONon YUGOSLAVIA |language=en-USYugoslavia |newspaper=The Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1991/07/02/germany-criticizes-european-community-policy-on-yugoslavia/9c80a48a-2363-4873-a3d6-cfc5ea2b9b80/ |access-date=2022-03-05 |work=[[The Washington Post]] |language=en-US |issn=0190-8286}}</ref> the German chancellor [[Helmut Kohl]] led the charge to recognize the first two breakaway republics of Slovenia and Croatia. He lobbied both national governments and the EC to be more favourable to his policies, and also went to Belgrade to pressure the federal government not to use military action, threatening sanctions. Days before the end of the year on Christmas Eve, Germany recognized the independence of Slovenia and Croatia, "against the advice of the European Community, the UN, and US President George H W Bush".<ref>{{Cite news |date=2017-06-20 |title=Kohl's roll of the dice in 1991 helped further destabilise the Balkans |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/a0f78f22-5518-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220305014953/https://www.ft.com/content/a0f78f22-5518-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f |archive-date=5 March 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=bot: unknown |access-date=2022-03-05 }}</ref>

Some observers opined that the break up of the Yugoslav state violated the principles of [[Post–Cold War era|post-Cold War system]], enshrined in the [[Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe]] (CSCE/OSCE) and the [[Paris Charter|Treaty of Paris]] of 1990. Both stipulated that inter-state borders in Europe should not be changed. Some observers, such as Peter Gowan, assert that the breakup and subsequent conflict could have been prevented if western states were more assertive in enforcing internal arrangements between all parties, but ultimately "were not prepared to enforce such principles in the Yugoslav case because Germany did not want to, and the other states did not have any strategic interest in doing so."<ref>{{cite journal|first=Peter|last=Gowan |url=https://newleftreview.org/I/234/peter-gowan-the-nato-powers-and-the-balkan-tragedy |title=The NATO Powers and the Balkan Tragedy |journal=New Left Review |date=March–April 1999|issue=I/234 |pages=83–105 }}</ref> Gowan even contends that the break-up "might have been possible without great bloodshed if clear criteria could have been established for providing security for all the main groups of people within the Yugoslav space."

The independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina proved to be the final blow to the pan-Yugoslav Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. On 28 April 1992, the Serb-dominated [[Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] (FRY) was [[1992 Yugoslav Constitution|formed]] as a [[rump state]], consisting only of the former Socialist Republics of SerbiaMontenegro and MontenegroSerbia. The FRY was dominated by Slobodan Milošević and his political allies. Its government claimed continuity to the former country, but the international community refused to recognize it as such. The stance of the international community was that Yugoslavia had dissolved into its separate states. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was prevented by a UN resolution on 22 September 1992 from continuing to occupy the United Nations seat as [[Succession of states#Yugoslavia|successor state to SFRY]].

The disintegration and war led to a [[Sanctions against Yugoslavia|sanctions regime]], causing the [[economy of Serbia and Montenegro]] to collapse after five years. The war in the western parts of former Yugoslavia ended in 1995 with US-sponsored peace talks in [[Dayton, Ohio]], which resulted in the [[Dayton Agreement]]. The [[Kosovo War]] started in 19961998 and ended with the [[1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia]]; Slobodan Milošević was [[Overthrow of Slobodan Milošević|overthrown]] inon 5 October 2000.

* [[Mark{{Cite book Almond|last=Almond, |first=Mark]], ''|author-link=Mark Almond |title=Europe's Backyardbackyard War'',war: the war in the Balkans |date=1994 |publisher=[[Heinemann (book publisher)|William Heinemann Ltd]], Great|isbn=978-0-434-00003-6 Britain, 1994|location=London}}

* et{{Cite al.book |last=Duncan, W.|first=Walter Raymond and Holman, G. Paul, ''|title=Ethnic Nationalismnationalism and Regionalregional Conflictconflict: Thethe Formerformer Soviet Union and Yugoslavia'', |last2=Holman |first2=G. Paul |date=1994 |publisher=[[Westview Press]] Inc, USA, 1994. {{ISBN|isbn=978-0-8133-8813-97 |location=Boulder San Francisco Oxford}}

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* Magas,{{Cite book |last=Magaš |first=Branka, ''|title=The Destructiondestruction of Yugoslavia: Trackingtracking the Breakbreak-up 1980–1992'',1980-92 Verso,|date=1993 Great|publisher=New Britain,York 1993.Verso {{ISBN|isbn=978-0-86091-593-X5 |location=London, GB}}

* {{Cite book |last=Mojzes, |first=Paul, ''|title=Yugoslavian Infernoinferno: ethnoreligious warfare in the Balkans'', The|date=1994 |publisher=[[Continuum Publishing CompanyPublishers]], USA,|isbn=978-0-8264-0683-5 1994|location=New York}}

* {{Cite book |last=Radan, |first=Peter, ''Break|title=The break-up of Yugoslavia and Internationalinternational Law'',law |date=2002 |publisher=[[Routledge]], Great|isbn=978-0-415-25352-9 Britain,|series=Routledge 2002studies in international law |location=London ; New York}}

* {{Cite book |last=Woodward, |first=Susan, ''L. |url=https://archive.org/details/balkantragedycha00wood |title=Balkan Tragedytragedy: Chaoschaos &and Dissolutiondissolution after the Cold War'', the|last2=Brookings Institution |date=1995 |publisher=[[Brookings Institution]] Press,|isbn=978-0-8157-9514-8 Virginia|location=Washington, USA, 1995DC}}