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The use of polling averages as political handicapping tools has been called into question. Critics say that it is not always fair to average different polling firms, methods, and sample groups.<ref name="wsj_risky"/>
The use of polling averages as political handicapping tools has been called into question. Critics say that it is not always fair to average different polling firms, methods, and sample groups.<ref name="wsj_risky"/>


McIntyre argues that averaging polls is better than cherry-picking individual ones, which is what campaigns might do to highlight numbers favoring their candidate, or journalists might do to create the impression of a close race. He requires at least three polls before producing an average. His site's numbers, he says, provide "a clearer picture of where things truly stand." <ref name="wsj_risky"/> However, [[Nate Silver]], who runs a competing website called [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], argues that McIntyre has been cherrypicking polls for RCP, including those which show promising numbers for Republicans and dropping those which don't."<ref>Nate Silver. [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html Electoral Projections Done Right: "Real Credibility Problems"]. October 2, 2008.</ref><ref>[[Andrew Sullivan]], [http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/is-realclearpol.html "Is RealClearPolitics Rigged?"], "The Daily Dish", ''[[Atlantic.com]]'', 02 Oct 2008</ref> Nate Silver has since backed away from claims that RCP may be doing this deliberately, but still maintains that there is a pro-Republican bias, whether intentional or not.<ref>http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/rcp-follow-up.html</ref>
McIntyre argues that averaging polls is better than cherry-picking individual ones, which is what campaigns might do to highlight numbers favoring their candidate, or journalists might do to create the impression of a close race. He requires at least three polls before producing an average. His site's numbers, he says, provide "a clearer picture of where things truly stand." <ref name="wsj_risky"/> However, [[Nate Silver]], who runs a competing website called [[FiveThirtyEight.com]], argues that McIntyre has been cherrypicking polls for RCP, including those which show promising numbers for Republicans and dropping those which don't."<ref>Nate Silver. [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html Electoral Projections Done Right: "Real Credibility Problems"]. October 2, 2008.</ref><ref>[[Andrew Sullivan]], [http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/is-realclearpol.html "Is RealClearPolitics Rigged?"], "The Daily Dish", ''[[Atlantic.com]]'', 02 Oct 2008</ref> Silver has since backed away from claims that RCP may be doing this deliberately, but still maintains that there is a pro-Republican bias, whether intentional or not.<ref>http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/rcp-follow-up.html</ref>


New research on prior elections suggests that the polling average methodology may be more predictive than previously thought. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, published findings in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling suggesting that, “in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.”<ref>{{cite news | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/opinion/06tyson.html?_r=1&oref=slogin | title= Vote by Numbers | publisher=[[The New York Times]] |date= June 6, 2008 | first= | last= | accessdate =2008-07-30}}</ref>
New research on prior elections suggests that the polling average methodology may be more predictive than previously thought. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, published findings in the journal ''Mathematical and Computer Modeling'' suggesting that, “in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.”<ref>{{cite news | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/opinion/06tyson.html?_r=1&oref=slogin | title= Vote by Numbers | publisher=[[The New York Times]] |date= June 6, 2008 | first= | last= | accessdate =2008-07-30}}</ref>


==Other sites==
==Other sites==

Revision as of 12:40, 12 November 2008

File:Logo-sub.gif

RealClearPolitics is a conservative leaning[1][2] Chicago-based political news aggregator, polling data aggregator, and blog founded in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan "for people like us...people who live and breathe politics and the major issues of the day."[3][4][5] Every day the site aggregates a wide range of columns and news stories from across the Internet as well as the most recent poll data,[6] election related transcripts[7] and videos.[8] The site also compiles averages of major political polls on various elections throughout the United States to give a broader view of the race.[9]

Founding and philosophy

The Web site was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive.[4] McIntyre explained "[i]t really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information."[10] They call what they do "intelligent aggregation".[11]

The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online eight years ago. It has expanded from a two-man operation on a shoestring budget to a full-time staff of more than two-dozen employees overseeing the company's mainstay, Real Clear Politics, as well as two smaller sites, Real Clear Markets and Real Clear Sports.

Updated continuously, the Real Clear sites, which are based in Chicago, aggregate content from a wide range of sources, sources that run the gamut of locations and political persuasions.

Stories from the Washington Post and other large-circulation media frequently run alongside articles from such lesser-known conservative papers as the Ottawa Citizen, while analyses from the New Republic may be paired with more conservative publications such as the Weekly Standard. McIntyre's purported objective is "to give readers ideological diversity. We're trying to stay immersed in the nation's political bloodstream at all times. That way, we can show you every small, little twist and turn, and give multiple sides to every story."[12]

New York Times columnist David Brooks said, "Some people wake up every morning with a raw egg and exercise. I wake up every morning with RealClearPolitics.com. It's the perfect one-stop shopping for the smartest commentary on politics and life." Howard Fineman, Newsweek chief political correspondent, states that, "RealClearPolitics.com is a site that makes a credible effort to do the impossible: to provide a comprehensive, real-time (and not just Beltway- based) overview of the entire American political conversation."[13]

In an interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the Web site as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values." Said Bevan, "We think debate on the issues is a very important thing. We post a variety of opinions." He further stated, "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives."[14]

Majority ownership purchased by Forbes

According to Business Week: Forbes Media, corporate parent of Forbes.com (www.forbes.com), announced on November 7, 2007 that it had acquired a 51% stake in RealClearPolitics.com, a premier political Web site. The founders will remain owners and management. Forbes President and CEO Steve Forbes stated, “We are absolutely delighted to welcome RealClearPolitics.com to the Forbes Media family as we continue our pursuit of enhancing and growing the company. Republicans, Democrats, Independents – anyone with an interest in politics and its impact on the economy—all find this sight[sic] indispensable for staying on top of critical news and analysis. It will be even more critical as the election season heats up.”[15]

Original content

In addition to linking to content around the Internet, Real Clear Politics also provides its own commentary.

Bevan and Blake Dvorak write "The Real Clear Politics Blog," which is hosted by TIME. Associate Editor Reid Wilson writes the "PoliticsNation" blog,[16] and doctoral student Jay Cost writes the "HorseRaceBlog."[17]

The site's political commentary, election analysis and polling averages have been featured in many national media outlets, including The New York Times[18], FOX News Channel[18], The Economist[19], Investor's Business Daily[20], and The Chicago Sun-Times[21]. RealClearPolitics polling averages are used regularly on MSNBC's "Hardball," Fox News, and the Web sites of CBS News and the Washington Post.[22]

Averages as a political handicapping tool

The use of polling averages as political handicapping tools has been called into question. Critics say that it is not always fair to average different polling firms, methods, and sample groups.[22]

McIntyre argues that averaging polls is better than cherry-picking individual ones, which is what campaigns might do to highlight numbers favoring their candidate, or journalists might do to create the impression of a close race. He requires at least three polls before producing an average. His site's numbers, he says, provide "a clearer picture of where things truly stand." [22] However, Nate Silver, who runs a competing website called FiveThirtyEight.com, argues that McIntyre has been cherrypicking polls for RCP, including those which show promising numbers for Republicans and dropping those which don't."[23][24] Silver has since backed away from claims that RCP may be doing this deliberately, but still maintains that there is a pro-Republican bias, whether intentional or not.[25]

New research on prior elections suggests that the polling average methodology may be more predictive than previously thought. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, published findings in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling suggesting that, “in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.”[26]

Other sites

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld and RealClearSports. [27]

References

  1. ^ "Freewheeling 'bloggers' are rewriting rules of journalism", Kathy Kiely, USA Today, December 30, 2003
  2. ^ [http://politibits.tuscaloosanews.com/default.asp?item=2260417 "Polls and the Presidential Election", Tuscaloosa News, Tommy Stevenson, September 9, 2008
  3. ^ "Conservative Spotlight: Real Clear Politics". Human Events. March 31, 2003. Retrieved 2008-09-01.
  4. ^ a b Zorn, Eric (2004). "Political site polls well with election junkies". Chicago Tribune: Metro, p. 1. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  5. ^ Wolinsky, Howard (2006). "Politicking pays off: Web site a must-read for political fanatics" ([dead link]). Chicago Sun-Times: p. 55. {{cite journal}}: |pages= has extra text (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
  6. ^ "Latest Polling Data". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  7. ^ "Transcripts & Speeches". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  8. ^ "RealClearPolitics Video Log". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  9. ^ "Polling Averages". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  10. ^ "Political Junkies Spawn a Real, Clear Success". U.S. News & World Report. December 12, 2007. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  11. ^ "Real Clear Politics Real Clear on its Growth, Mission". The Chicago Tribune. February 7, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  12. ^ "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". The New York Sun. March 10, 2008. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  13. ^ "RealClearPolitics.com Launches New Web Site, Announces Financing". PR Newswire. March 14, 2006. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  14. ^ "Conservative Spotlight: Real Clear Politics". Human Events. March 31, 2003. Retrieved 2008-02-12.
  15. ^ http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20071107006128&newsLang=en Forbes Buys RCP
  16. ^ "Politics Nation". RealClearPolitics. September 17, 2007. Retrieved 2008-03-27.
  17. ^ "HorseRaceBlog". RealClearPolitics. May 30, 2007. Retrieved 2008-03-27.
  18. ^ a b "THE 2006 CAMPAIGN; Election Night Viewing Includes Web's Bells and Whistles". The New York Times. November 7, 2006. Retrieved 2007-07-17.
  19. ^ "On leaving Los Angeles". The Economist. November 3, 2006. Retrieved 2007-07-17.
  20. ^ "Best blogs of 2004". Investor's Business Daily. 2004-12-15. Retrieved 2007-07-17.
  21. ^ "Don't count out McCain just yet". The Chicago Sun-Times. May 18, 2007. Retrieved 2007-07-17.
  22. ^ a b c "Election Handicappers Are Using Risky Tool: Mixed Poll Averages". The Wall Street Journal. February 15, 2008. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  23. ^ Nate Silver. Electoral Projections Done Right: "Real Credibility Problems". October 2, 2008.
  24. ^ Andrew Sullivan, "Is RealClearPolitics Rigged?", "The Daily Dish", Atlantic.com, 02 Oct 2008
  25. ^ http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/rcp-follow-up.html
  26. ^ "Vote by Numbers". The New York Times. June 6, 2008. Retrieved 2008-07-30.
  27. ^ "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". New York Sun. March 10, 2008. Retrieved 2008-03-25.
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