UNIVERSIDAD TÉCNICA DE COTOPAXI

FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS DE LA INGENIERIA Y APLICADA

CARRERA DE INGENIERÍA ELÉCTRICA
Trabajo Practico. Ejercicios de Sistemas
ANGEL ANTONIO CONSTANTE ACOSTA

Problema:

Dado el sistema de la figura, con los datos abajo indicados:

Solución:

A) Calcular la probabilidad de déficit de potencia para el sistema d

Datos de probabilidad de los generadores

U1 U2 U3
 F 0.05 0.05 0.01
D 0.95 0.95 0.99

Estados G1 G2 G3 Probabilidad
0 1 1 1 0.893475
1 1 1 0 0.009025
2 1 0 1 0.047025
3 0 1 1 0.047025
4 1 0 0 0.000475
5 0 1 0 0.000475
6 0 0 1 0.002475
7 0 0 0 0.000025
Probabilidad acumulada 1

Sistema de generacion sin consideracion de la red

P/MW Pr(PF>P) Pr(PF=P)
1 Bloque 2 Bloques 3 Bloques
<0 1 1 1 0.893475
50 0.05 0.0975 0.106525 0
100 0.05 0.0975 0.106525 0.103075
150 0 0.0025 0.00345 #VALUE!
200 0,0025 0,00345 #VALUE!
250 0 0,000025 #VALUE!
300 0,000025 #VALUE!
>300 0 0

B) Suponiendo que el requerimiento de reserva adicional necesaria para alcan

(F)=0.01 instalados en el nodo N2, determinar la cantidad de generadores nec
valor de la probabilidad de déficit.

Datos de probabilidad de los generadores y las lineas

U1 U2 U2-B U3
F 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01
D 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.99

Estados G1 G2 G2-B G3
0 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 1
3 1 1 1 0
 4 1 1 0 1
5 1 0 1 1
6 0 1 1 1
7 1 1 1 1
8 1 1 1 0
9 1 1 0 1
10 1 0 1 1
11 0 1 1 1
12 1 1 1 0
13 1 1 0 1
14 1 0 1 1
15 0 1 1 1
16 1 1 0 0
17 1 0 1 0
18 0 1 1 0
19 1 0 0 1
20 0 1 0 1
21 0 0 1 1
22 1 1 1 0
23 1 1 0 0
24 1 0 0 1
25 0 0 1 1
26 1 1 0 0
27 1 0 0 1
28 0 0 1 1
29 1 0 0 0
30 0 0 1 0
31 0 0 0 1
32 1 1 1 0
33 1 1 0 1
34 0 1 1 1
35 1 1 0 0
36 0 1 1 0
37 0 0 1 1
38 1 1 0 0
39 0 1 1 0
40 0 0 1 1
41 0 0 0 1
42 1 1 0 0
43 1 0 1 0
44 0 1 1 0
45 1 0 0 1
46 0 1 0 1
47 0 0 1 1
48 1 0 0 0
 49 0 1 0 0
50 0 0 1 0
51 0 0 0 1
52 1 0 0 0
53 0 1 0 0
54 0 0 1 0
55 0 0 0 1
56 0 0 0 0
57 1 0 0 0
58 0 1 0 0
59 0 0 1 0
60 0 0 0 1
61 0 0 0 0
62 0 0 0 0
63 0 0 0 0
Probabilidad acumulada

C) Suponiendo que se han agregado al sistema los generadores de

sistema considerando la capacidad y confiabilidad de la red de tran
mínimos de corte de orden superior a tres. Para el cálculo de las pr

Conjuntos Minimos de Corte

CMC1 G1G2 0.0025
CMC2 G2G3 0.0005
CMC3 G1L12 0.0005
CMC4 G2L12 0.0005
CMC12 G1G2G3 0.000025
CMC13 G1G3L12 0.000005
CMC14 G1G2G3L12 0.00000025
CMC23 G1G2G3L12 0.00000025
CMC24 G2G3L12 0.000005
CM34 G1G2L12 0.000025
CMC123 G1G2L12 0.00000025
CMC124 G1G2G3L12 0.00000025
CMC234 G1G2G3L12 0.00000025
CMC1234 G1G2G3L12 0.00000025
0.0040615
 Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi
Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería y Aplicadas
Carrera de Ingeniería Eléctrica
Latacunga - Cotopaxi - Ecuador

TOPAXI
IA Y APLICADA
CTRICA

COSTA

dicados:

Datos de los generadores:

G1 G2 G3
P(MW) 100 100 100
Pr(F) 0.05 0.05 0.01
Datos de las líneas:
L12 L23
P(MW) 50 100
Pr(F) 0.01 0.001
Datos de las demandas:
D1 D2
P(MW) 20 150

ncia para el sistema de generación sin considerar la red.

 Demanda total 170

Pot. Falla Pot.disponible Pot. Deficit

0 300 0
100 200 0
100 200 0
100 200 0
200 100 70
200 100 70
200 100 70
300 0 170
LOLP 0.00345

on de la red

LOLP
0.00345

LOLP
0.00345

onal necesaria para alcanzar un nivel de confiabilidad prefijado se cubra con generadores con P=50 MW y Pr
ntidad de generadores necesarios para que la probabilidad de déficit no supere el valor Prlím=0.001 y calcular el

neradores y las lineas demanda 170

L12 L23 G2-B 50 MW
0.01 0.001 Pr(F) 0.01
0.99 0.999

L12 L23 Probabilidad Pot. Falla Pot.disponible Pot. Deficit

1 1 0.8748191526525 0 500 0
1 0 0.0008756948475 100 400 0
0 1 0.0088365570975 50 450 0
1 1 0.0088365570975 100 400 0
1 1 0.0088365570975 50 450 0
1 1 0.0460431132975 100 400 0
1 1 0.0460431132975 100 400 0
0 0 0.0000088454025 150 350 0
1 0 0.0000088454025 200 300 0
1 0 0.0000088454025 150 350 0
1 0 0.0000460892025 200 300 0
1 0 0.0000460892025 200 300 0
0 1 0.0000892581525 150 350 0
0 1 0.0000892581525 100 400 0
0 1 0.0004650819525 150 350 0
0 1 0.0004650819525 150 350 0
1 1 0.0000892581525 150 350 0
1 1 0.0004650819525 200 300 0
1 1 0.0004650819525 200 300 0
1 1 0.0004650819525 150 350 0
1 1 0.0004650819525 150 350 0
1 1 0.0024233217525 200 300 0
0 0 0.0000000893475 250 250 0
1 0 0.0000000893475 250 250 0
1 0 0.0000004655475 250 250 0
1 0 0.0000024257475 300 200 0
0 1 0.0000009015975 200 300 0
0 1 0.0000046977975 200 300 0
0 1 0.0000244779975 250 250 0
1 1 0.0000046977975 250 250 0
1 1 0.0000244779975 300 200 0
1 1 0.0000244779975 250 250 0
0 0 0.0000000893475 250 250 0
0 0 0.0000000893475 200 300 0
0 0 0.0000004655475 250 250 0
1 0 0.0000000893475 250 250 0
1 0 0.0000004655475 300 200 0
1 0 0.0000024257475 300 200 0
0 1 0.0000009015975 200 300 0
0 1 0.0000046977975 250 250 0
0 1 0.0000244779975 250 250 0
1 1 0.0000244779975 250 250 0
0 0 9.025E-10 300 200 0
0 0 0.0000000047025 350 150 20
0 0 0.0000000047025 350 150 20
0 0 0.0000000047025 300 200 0
0 0 0.0000000047025 300 200 0
0 0 0.0000000245025 350 150 20
1 0 0.0000000047025 350 150 20
 1 0 0.0000000047025 350 150 20
1 0 0.0000000245025 400 100 70
1 0 0.0000000245025 350 150 20
0 1 0.0000000474525 300 200 0
0 1 0.0000000474525 300 200 0
0 1 0.0000002472525 350 150 20
0 1 0.0000002472525 300 200 0
1 1 0.0000002472525 350 150 20
0 0 4.75E-11 400 100 70
0 0 4.75E-11 400 100 70
0 0 2.475E-10 450 50 120
0 0 2.475E-10 400 100 70
1 0 2.475E-10 450 50 120
0 1 0.0000000024975 400 100 70
0 0 2.5E-12 500 0 170
mulada 1.000

ma los generadores de reserva requeridos según lo determinado en el punto anterior, calcular la probabilida
ilidad de la red de transporte. Emplear para este cálculo el método de los conjuntos mínimos de corte despre
ara el cálculo de las probabilidades se pueden despreciar las combinaciones de conjuntos mínimos de corte.
on P=50 MW y Pr
=0.001 y calcular el

Def N1 Def N2 Def Sistema Falla Def CMC Prob. Def Prob. CMC
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.001
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.01
 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0.01
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 1 0 0.000465082 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 1 0 2.425748E-06 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 0 0 0 0
0 100 100 3 0 0 0 0
20 100 120 3 0 0 0 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 3 1 0 8.93475E-08 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 1 0 4.655475E-07 0
20 100 120 3 0 0 0 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 0 0 0 0
20 0 20 3 0 0 0 0
0 50 50 3 0 0 0 0
0 50 50 4 0 0 0 0
0 100 100 4 1 0 4.7025E-09 0
20 0 20 4 1 0 4.7025E-09 0
0 150 150 4 0 0 0 0
20 50 70 4 0 0 0 0
20 100 120 4 1 0 2.45025E-08 0
0 100 100 4 1 0 4.7025E-09 0
 20 50 70 4 1 0 4.7025E-09 0
20 100 120 4 1 0 2.45025E-08 0
20 150 170 4 1 0 2.45025E-08 0
0 150 150 4 0 0 0 0
20 50 70 4 0 0 0 0
20 100 120 4 1 0 2.472525E-07 0
20 50 70 4 0 0 0 0
20 150 170 4 1 0 2.472525E-07 0
0 150 150 5 1 0 4.75E-11 0
20 50 70 5 1 0 4.75E-11 0
20 100 120 5 1 0 2.475E-10 0
20 150 170 5 1 0 2.475E-10 0
20 150 170 5 1 0 2.475E-10 0
20 150 170 5 1 0 2.4975E-09 0
20 150 170 6 1 0 2.5E-12 0
Prob. Def 0.0004686528 0.021

rior, calcular la probabilidad de déficit del

ntos mínimos de corte despreciando los conjuntos
onjuntos mínimos de corte.
Def N2 CMC Prob. Def N2 Prob. CMC N2
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0.01
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0.05
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 4.6089203E-05 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 0.00046508195 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 8.93475E-08 0
1 0 4.655475E-07 0
1 0 2.4257475E-06 0
1 0 9.015975E-07 0
1 0 4.6977975E-06 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 4.6977975E-06 0
1 0 2.4477998E-05 0
1 0 2.4477998E-05 0
1 0 8.93475E-08 0
1 0 8.93475E-08 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 2.4257475E-06 0
1 0 9.015975E-07 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 2.4477998E-05 0
1 0 2.4477998E-05 0
1 0 9.025E-10 0
1 0 4.7025E-09 0
0 0 0 0
1 0 4.7025E-09 0
1 0 4.7025E-09 0
1 0 2.45025E-08 0
1 0 4.7025E-09 0
 1 0 4.7025E-09 0
1 0 2.45025E-08 0
1 0 2.45025E-08 0
1 0 4.74525E-08 0
1 0 4.74525E-08 0
1 0 2.472525E-07 0
1 0 2.472525E-07 0
1 0 2.472525E-07 0
1 0 4.75E-11 0
1 0 4.75E-11 0
1 0 2.475E-10 0
1 0 2.475E-10 0
1 0 2.475E-10 0
1 0 2.4975E-09 0
1 0 2.5E-12 0
Prob. Def2 0.00062680494 0.06
E) Suponiendo el reemplazo de la línea L23 por dos líneas de capacidad P=50
justificando la respuesta, en qué sentido se modificará la probabilidad de défi

Datos de probabilidad de los generadores y las lineas

U1 U2 U2-B U3 L12
F 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01
D 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.99 0.99
Pot. 100 100 50 100 50

Estados G1 G2 G2-B G3 L12

0 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 1 1
3 1 1 1 1 1
4 1 1 1 1 0
5 1 1 1 1 0
6 1 1 1 1 0
7 1 1 1 1 0
8 1 1 1 0 1
9 1 1 1 0 1
10 1 1 1 0 1
11 1 1 1 0 1
12 1 1 1 0 0
13 1 1 1 0 0
14 1 1 1 0 0
15 1 1 1 0 0
16 1 1 0 1 1
17 1 1 0 1 1
18 1 1 0 1 1
19 1 1 0 1 1
20 1 1 0 1 0
21 1 1 0 1 0
22 1 1 0 1 0
23 1 1 0 1 0
24 1 1 0 0 1
25 1 1 0 0 1
26 1 1 0 0 1
27 1 1 0 0 1
28 1 1 0 0 0
29 1 1 0 0 0
30 1 1 0 0 0
31 1 1 0 0 0
32 1 0 1 1 1
33 1 0 1 1 1
34 1 0 1 1 1
35 1 0 1 1 1
36 1 0 1 1 0
37 1 0 1 1 0
38 1 0 1 1 0
39 1 0 1 1 0
40 1 0 1 0 1
41 1 0 1 0 1
42 1 0 1 0 1
43 1 0 1 0 1
44 1 0 1 0 0
45 1 0 1 0 0
46 1 0 1 0 0
47 1 0 1 0 0
48 1 0 0 1 1
49 1 0 0 1 1
50 1 0 0 1 1
51 1 0 0 1 1
52 1 0 0 1 0
53 1 0 0 1 0
54 1 0 0 1 0
55 1 0 0 1 0
56 1 0 0 0 1
57 1 0 0 0 1
58 1 0 0 0 1
59 1 0 0 0 1
60 1 0 0 0 0
61 1 0 0 0 0
62 1 0 0 0 0
63 1 0 0 0 0
64 0 1 1 1 1
65 0 1 1 1 1
66 0 1 1 1 1
67 0 1 1 1 1
68 0 1 1 1 0
69 0 1 1 1 0
70 0 1 1 1 0
71 0 1 1 1 0
72 0 1 1 0 1
73 0 1 1 0 1
74 0 1 1 0 1
75 0 1 1 0 1
 76 0 1 1 0 0
77 0 1 1 0 0
78 0 1 1 0 0
79 0 1 1 0 0
80 0 1 0 1 1
81 0 1 0 1 1
82 0 1 0 1 1
83 0 1 0 1 1
84 0 1 0 1 0
85 0 1 0 1 0
86 0 1 0 1 0
87 0 1 0 1 0
88 0 1 0 0 1
89 0 1 0 0 1
90 0 1 0 0 1
91 0 1 0 0 1
92 0 1 0 0 0
93 0 1 0 0 0
94 0 1 0 0 0
95 0 1 0 0 0
96 0 0 1 1 1
97 0 0 1 1 1
98 0 0 1 1 1
99 0 0 1 1 1
100 0 0 1 1 0
101 0 0 1 1 0
102 0 0 1 1 0
103 0 0 1 1 0
104 0 0 1 0 1
105 0 0 1 0 1
106 0 0 1 0 1
107 0 0 1 0 1
108 0 0 1 0 0
109 0 0 1 0 0
110 0 0 1 0 0
111 0 0 1 0 0
112 0 0 0 1 1
113 0 0 0 1 1
114 0 0 0 1 1
115 0 0 0 1 1
116 0 0 0 1 0
117 0 0 0 1 0
118 0 0 0 1 0
119 0 0 0 1 0
120 0 0 0 0 1
 121 0 0 0 0 1
122 0 0 0 0 1
123 0 0 0 0 1
124 0 0 0 0 0
125 0 0 0 0 0
126 0 0 0 0 0
127 0 0 0 0 0
Probabilidad acumulada

F) En comparación con el caso del punto E), indicar en qué sentido se modif
una probabilidad de falla por causa común Prcc(F)=0.0005

Datos de probabilidad de los generadores y las lineas

U1 U2 U2-B U3 L12
F 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01
D 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.99 0.99
Pot. 100 100 50 100 50

Estados G1 G2 G2-B G3 L12

0 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 1 1
3 1 1 1 1 1
4 1 1 1 1 0
5 1 1 1 1 0
6 1 1 1 1 0
7 1 1 1 1 0
8 1 1 1 0 1
9 1 1 1 0 1
10 1 1 1 0 1
11 1 1 1 0 1
12 1 1 1 0 0
13 1 1 1 0 0
14 1 1 1 0 0
15 1 1 1 0 0
16 1 1 0 1 1
17 1 1 0 1 1
18 1 1 0 1 1
19 1 1 0 1 1
20 1 1 0 1 0
21 1 1 0 1 0
22 1 1 0 1 0
23 1 1 0 1 0
24 1 1 0 0 1
25 1 1 0 0 1
26 1 1 0 0 1
27 1 1 0 0 1
28 1 1 0 0 0
29 1 1 0 0 0
30 1 1 0 0 0
31 1 1 0 0 0
32 1 0 1 1 1
33 1 0 1 1 1
34 1 0 1 1 1
35 1 0 1 1 1
36 1 0 1 1 0
37 1 0 1 1 0
38 1 0 1 1 0
39 1 0 1 1 0
40 1 0 1 0 1
41 1 0 1 0 1
42 1 0 1 0 1
43 1 0 1 0 1
44 1 0 1 0 0
45 1 0 1 0 0
46 1 0 1 0 0
47 1 0 1 0 0
48 1 0 0 1 1
49 1 0 0 1 1
50 1 0 0 1 1
51 1 0 0 1 1
52 1 0 0 1 0
53 1 0 0 1 0
54 1 0 0 1 0
55 1 0 0 1 0
56 1 0 0 0 1
57 1 0 0 0 1
58 1 0 0 0 1
59 1 0 0 0 1
60 1 0 0 0 0
61 1 0 0 0 0
62 1 0 0 0 0
63 1 0 0 0 0
64 0 1 1 1 1
 65 0 1 1 1 1
66 0 1 1 1 1
67 0 1 1 1 1
68 0 1 1 1 0
69 0 1 1 1 0
70 0 1 1 1 0
71 0 1 1 1 0
72 0 1 1 0 1
73 0 1 1 0 1
74 0 1 1 0 1
75 0 1 1 0 1
76 0 1 1 0 0
77 0 1 1 0 0
78 0 1 1 0 0
79 0 1 1 0 0
80 0 1 0 1 1
81 0 1 0 1 1
82 0 1 0 1 1
83 0 1 0 1 1
84 0 1 0 1 0
85 0 1 0 1 0
86 0 1 0 1 0
87 0 1 0 1 0
88 0 1 0 0 1
89 0 1 0 0 1
90 0 1 0 0 1
91 0 1 0 0 1
92 0 1 0 0 0
93 0 1 0 0 0
94 0 1 0 0 0
95 0 1 0 0 0
96 0 0 1 1 1
97 0 0 1 1 1
98 0 0 1 1 1
99 0 0 1 1 1
100 0 0 1 1 0
101 0 0 1 1 0
102 0 0 1 1 0
103 0 0 1 1 0
104 0 0 1 0 1
105 0 0 1 0 1
106 0 0 1 0 1
107 0 0 1 0 1
108 0 0 1 0 0
109 0 0 1 0 0
110 0 0 1 0 0
111 0 0 1 0 0
112 0 0 0 1 1
113 0 0 0 1 1
114 0 0 0 1 1
115 0 0 0 1 1
116 0 0 0 1 0
117 0 0 0 1 0
118 0 0 0 1 0
119 0 0 0 1 0
120 0 0 0 0 1
121 0 0 0 0 1
122 0 0 0 0 1
123 0 0 0 0 1
124 0 0 0 0 0
125 0 0 0 0 0
126 0 0 0 0 0
127 0 0 0 0 0
Probabilidad acumulada
líneas de capacidad P=50 MW cada una y Pr (F)=0.001, indicar,
rá la probabilidad de déficit para el sistema y para el nodo N2.

s y las lineas demanda 170

L23-A L23-B
0.001 0.001
0.999 0.999
50 50

L23-A L23-B Probabilidad Def N1 Def N2 Def Sistema Falla Def

1 1 0.8739443335 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0.00087481915 0 0 0 1 0
0 1 0.00087481915 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 8.75694848E-07 0 0 0 2 0
1 1 0.00882772054 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 8.8454025E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 0.00882772054 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 8.8454025E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 8.91688943E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 1 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 0 8.93475E-11 0 0 0 4 0
1 1 0.00882772054 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 8.8365571E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 8.8454025E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 8.91688943E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 1
0 1 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 0 8.93475E-11 0 50 50 4 0
1 1 8.91688943E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 1 8.92581525E-08 0 0 0 3 1
0 0 8.93475E-11 0 0 0 4 1
1 1 9.00695903E-07 0 50 50 3 1
1 0 9.015975E-10 0 50 50 4 1
0 1 9.015975E-10 0 50 50 4 0
0 0 9.025E-13 0 50 50 5 0
1 1 0.04599707018 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 4.60431133E-05 0 0 0 2 1
0 1 4.60431133E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 4.60892025E-08 0 50 50 3 1
1 1 0.00046461687 0 0 0 2 1
1 0 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 0 100 100 4 1
1 1 0.00046461687 0 50 50 2 1
1 0 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 0 50 50 4 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 0 100 100 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 0 100 100 5 1
1 1 0.00046461687 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 0 100 100 4 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 0 50 50 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 0 150 150 5 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 0 100 100 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 0 100 100 5 1
1 1 4.74050475E-08 0 150 150 4 1
1 0 4.74525E-11 0 150 150 5 1
0 1 4.74525E-11 0 150 150 5 1
0 0 4.75E-14 0 150 150 6 1
1 1 0.04599707018 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 4.60431133E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 4.60431133E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 4.60892025E-08 20 0 20 3 1
1 1 0.00046461687 20 0 20 2 1
1 0 4.65081953E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 0.00046461687 20 0 20 2 1
1 0 4.65081953E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 20 0 20 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 20 0 20 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 20 0 20 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 20 0 20 5 1
1 1 0.00046461687 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 4.65081953E-07 20 50 70 3 1
0 1 4.65081953E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 4.655475E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 20 0 20 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 20 50 70 5 1
1 1 4.6930997E-06 20 50 70 3 1
1 0 4.6977975E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 1 4.6977975E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 4.7025E-12 20 50 70 5 1
1 1 4.74050475E-08 20 50 70 4 1
1 0 4.74525E-11 20 50 70 5 1
0 1 4.74525E-11 20 0 20 5 1
0 0 4.75E-14 20 50 70 6 1
1 1 0.00242089843 20 50 70 2 1
1 0 2.42332175E-06 20 100 120 3 1
0 1 2.42332175E-06 20 100 120 3 1
0 0 2.4257475E-09 20 100 120 4 1
1 1 2.44535195E-05 20 100 120 3 1
1 0 2.44779975E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 1 2.44779975E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 0 2.45025E-11 20 100 120 5 1
1 1 2.44535195E-05 20 100 120 3 1
1 0 2.44779975E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 1 2.44779975E-08 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 2.45025E-11 20 100 120 5 1
1 1 2.47005248E-07 20 100 120 4 1
1 0 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 2.475E-13 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.44535195E-05 20 150 170 3 1
1 0 2.44779975E-08 20 150 170 4 1
0 1 2.44779975E-08 20 150 170 4 1
0 0 2.45025E-11 20 150 170 5 1
1 1 2.47005248E-07 20 150 170 4 1
1 0 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 2.475E-13 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.47005248E-07 20 150 170 4 1
 1 0 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 2.472525E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 2.475E-13 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.4950025E-09 20 150 170 5 1
1 0 2.4975E-12 20 150 170 6 1
0 1 2.4975E-12 20 150 170 6 1
0 0 2.5E-15 20 150 170 7 1
1.000 Prob. Def

en qué sentido se modificará la probabilidad de déficit si las líneas en paralelo entre los nodos N2 y N3 tie
=0.0005

s y las lineas demanda 170

L23-A L23-B
0.0005 0.0005
0.9995 0.9995
50 50

L23-A L23-B Probabilidad Def N1 Def N2 Def Sistema Falla Def

1 1 0.87481937158 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0.0004376285 0 0 0 1 0
0 1 0.0004376285 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 2.18923712E-07 0 0 0 2 0
1 1 0.00883655931 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 2.21135063E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 0.00883655931 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 2.21135063E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 8.92581748E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 1 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 0 2.2336875E-11 0 0 0 4 0
1 1 0.00883655931 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 4.4204899E-06 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 2.21135063E-09 0 0 0 3 0
1 1 8.92581748E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 1
0 1 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 0 2.2336875E-11 0 50 50 4 0
1 1 8.92581748E-05 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 0
0 1 4.46514131E-08 0 0 0 3 1
0 0 2.2336875E-11 0 0 0 4 1
1 1 9.01597726E-07 0 50 50 3 1
1 0 4.51024375E-10 0 50 50 4 1
0 1 4.51024375E-10 0 50 50 4 0
0 0 2.25625E-13 0 50 50 5 0
1 1 0.04604312482 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 2.30330789E-05 0 0 0 2 1
0 1 2.30330789E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 1.15223006E-08 0 50 50 3 1
1 1 0.00046508207 0 0 0 2 1
1 0 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 0 100 100 4 1
1 1 0.00046508207 0 50 50 2 1
1 0 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 0 50 50 4 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 0 100 100 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 0 100 100 5 1
1 1 0.00046508207 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 0 50 50 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 0 100 100 4 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 0 50 50 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 0 150 150 5 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 0 100 100 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 0 100 100 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 0 100 100 5 1
1 1 4.74525119E-08 0 150 150 4 1
1 0 2.3738125E-11 0 150 150 5 1
0 1 2.3738125E-11 0 150 150 5 1
0 0 1.1875E-14 0 150 150 6 1
1 1 0.04604312482 0 0 0 1 0
1 0 2.30330789E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 1 2.30330789E-05 0 0 0 2 0
0 0 1.15223006E-08 20 0 20 3 1
1 1 0.00046508207 20 0 20 2 1
1 0 2.32657363E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 0.00046508207 20 0 20 2 1
1 0 2.32657363E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 20 0 20 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 20 0 20 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 20 0 20 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 20 0 20 5 1
1 1 0.00046508207 0 0 0 2 0
1 0 2.32657363E-07 20 50 70 3 1
0 1 2.32657363E-07 20 0 20 3 1
0 0 1.16386875E-10 20 0 20 4 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 20 0 20 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 20 50 70 5 1
1 1 4.69779868E-06 20 50 70 3 1
1 0 2.35007438E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 1 2.35007438E-09 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 1.175625E-12 20 50 70 5 1
1 1 4.74525119E-08 20 50 70 4 1
1 0 2.3738125E-11 20 50 70 5 1
0 1 2.3738125E-11 20 0 20 5 1
0 0 1.1875E-14 20 50 70 6 1
1 1 0.00242332236 20 50 70 2 1
1 0 1.21226731E-06 20 100 120 3 1
0 1 1.21226731E-06 20 100 120 3 1
0 0 6.06436875E-10 20 100 120 4 1
1 1 2.44780036E-05 20 100 120 3 1
1 0 1.22451244E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 1 1.22451244E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 0 6.125625E-12 20 100 120 5 1
1 1 2.44780036E-05 20 100 120 3 1
1 0 1.22451244E-08 20 100 120 4 1
0 1 1.22451244E-08 20 50 70 4 1
0 0 6.125625E-12 20 100 120 5 1
1 1 2.47252562E-07 20 100 120 4 1
1 0 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 6.1875E-14 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.44780036E-05 20 150 170 3 1
1 0 1.22451244E-08 20 150 170 4 1
0 1 1.22451244E-08 20 150 170 4 1
0 0 6.125625E-12 20 150 170 5 1
1 1 2.47252562E-07 20 150 170 4 1
1 0 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 6.1875E-14 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.47252562E-07 20 150 170 4 1
1 0 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 1 1.23688125E-10 20 150 170 5 1
0 0 6.1875E-14 20 150 170 6 1
1 1 2.49750063E-09 20 150 170 5 1
1 0 1.249375E-12 20 150 170 6 1
0 1 1.249375E-12 20 150 170 6 1
0 0 6.25E-16 20 150 170 7 1
1.000 Prob. Def
 Prob. Def Def N2 Prob. Def N2
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
8.92582E-08 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 8.93475E-11
0 0 0
0 0 0
8.92582E-08 0 0
8.93475E-11 0 0
9.00696E-07 1 9.006959E-07
9.01598E-10 1 9.015975E-10
0 1 9.015975E-10
 0 1 9.025E-13
0 0 0
4.60431E-05 0 0
0 0 0
4.60892E-08 1 4.6089203E-08
0.00046462 0 0
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65548E-10 1 4.655475E-10
0.00046462 1 0.0004646169
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65548E-10 1 4.655475E-10
4.6931E-06 1 4.6930997E-06
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.7025E-12 1 4.7025E-12
0 0 0
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65548E-10 1 4.655475E-10
4.6931E-06 1 4.6930997E-06
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.7025E-12 1 4.7025E-12
4.6931E-06 1 4.6930997E-06
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.7025E-12 1 4.7025E-12
4.7405E-08 1 4.7405048E-08
4.74525E-11 1 4.74525E-11
4.74525E-11 1 4.74525E-11
4.75E-14 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
4.60892E-08 0 0
0.00046462 0 0
4.65082E-07 0 0
4.65082E-07 0 0
4.65548E-10 0 0
0.00046462 0 0
4.65082E-07 0 0
4.65082E-07 0 0
4.65548E-10 0 0
 4.6931E-06 0 0
4.6978E-09 0 0
4.6978E-09 0 0
4.7025E-12 0 0
0 0 0
4.65082E-07 0 0
4.65082E-07 1 4.6508195E-07
4.65548E-10 0 0
4.6931E-06 0 0
4.6978E-09 0 0
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.7025E-12 1 4.7025E-12
4.6931E-06 1 4.6930997E-06
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.6978E-09 1 4.6977975E-09
4.7025E-12 1 4.7025E-12
4.7405E-08 1 4.7405048E-08
4.74525E-11 1 4.74525E-11
4.74525E-11 1 4.74525E-11
4.75E-14 0 0
0.0024209 1 0.0024208984
2.42332E-06 1 2.4233218E-06
2.42332E-06 1 2.4233218E-06
2.42575E-09 0 0
2.44535E-05 1 2.445352E-05
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.45025E-11 1 2.45025E-11
2.44535E-05 1 2.445352E-05
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.45025E-11 1 2.45025E-11
2.47005E-07 1 2.4700525E-07
2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.475E-13 1 2.475E-13
2.44535E-05 1 2.445352E-05
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.4478E-08 1 2.4477998E-08
2.45025E-11 1 2.45025E-11
2.47005E-07 1 2.4700525E-07
2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.475E-13 1 2.475E-13
2.47005E-07 1 2.4700525E-07
 2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.47253E-10 1 2.472525E-10
2.475E-13 1 2.475E-13
2.495E-09 1 2.4950025E-09
2.4975E-12 1 2.4975E-12
2.4975E-12 1 2.4975E-12
2.5E-15 1 2.5E-15
0.00443958 Prob. Def2 0.0029877298

los nodos N2 y N3 tienen

Prob. Def Def N2 Prob. Def N2

0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
 0 0 0
4.46514E-08 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 2.2336875E-11
0 0 0
0 0 0
4.46514E-08 0 0
2.23369E-11 0 0
9.01598E-07 1 9.0159773E-07
4.51024E-10 1 4.5102438E-10
0 1 4.5102438E-10
0 1 2.25625E-13
0 0 0
2.30331E-05 0 0
0 0 0
1.15223E-08 1 1.1522301E-08
0.00046508 0 0
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
1.16387E-10 1 1.1638688E-10
0.00046508 1 0.0004650821
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
1.16387E-10 1 1.1638688E-10
4.6978E-06 1 4.6977987E-06
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
1.17563E-12 1 1.175625E-12
0 0 0
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
1.16387E-10 1 1.1638688E-10
4.6978E-06 1 4.6977987E-06
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
1.17563E-12 1 1.175625E-12
4.6978E-06 1 4.6977987E-06
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
1.17563E-12 1 1.175625E-12
4.74525E-08 1 4.7452512E-08
2.37381E-11 1 2.3738125E-11
2.37381E-11 1 2.3738125E-11
1.1875E-14 0 0
0 0 0
 0 0 0
0 0 0
1.15223E-08 0 0
0.00046508 0 0
2.32657E-07 0 0
2.32657E-07 0 0
1.16387E-10 0 0
0.00046508 0 0
2.32657E-07 0 0
2.32657E-07 0 0
1.16387E-10 0 0
4.6978E-06 0 0
2.35007E-09 0 0
2.35007E-09 0 0
1.17563E-12 0 0
0 0 0
2.32657E-07 0 0
2.32657E-07 1 2.3265736E-07
1.16387E-10 0 0
4.6978E-06 0 0
2.35007E-09 0 0
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
1.17563E-12 1 1.175625E-12
4.6978E-06 1 4.6977987E-06
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
2.35007E-09 1 2.3500744E-09
1.17563E-12 1 1.175625E-12
4.74525E-08 1 4.7452512E-08
2.37381E-11 1 2.3738125E-11
2.37381E-11 1 2.3738125E-11
1.1875E-14 0 0
0.00242332 1 0.0024233224
1.21227E-06 1 1.2122673E-06
1.21227E-06 1 1.2122673E-06
6.06437E-10 0 0
2.4478E-05 1 2.4478004E-05
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
6.12563E-12 1 6.125625E-12
2.4478E-05 1 2.4478004E-05
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
6.12563E-12 1 6.125625E-12
2.47253E-07 1 2.4725256E-07
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
6.1875E-14 1 6.1875E-14
2.4478E-05 1 2.4478004E-05
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
1.22451E-08 1 1.2245124E-08
6.12563E-12 1 6.125625E-12
2.47253E-07 1 2.4725256E-07
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
6.1875E-14 1 6.1875E-14
2.47253E-07 1 2.4725256E-07
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
1.23688E-10 1 1.2368813E-10
6.1875E-14 1 6.1875E-14
2.4975E-09 1 2.4975006E-09
1.24938E-12 1 1.249375E-12
1.24938E-12 1 1.249375E-12
6.25E-16 1 6.25E-16
0.00441548 Prob. Def2 0.0029865318