Datos para VaR - MSH-2021
Datos para VaR - MSH-2021
Datos para VaR - MSH-2021
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Algunas características del método de Simulación Hi
Consiste en generar escenarios de los factores de riesgo (tipo de cambio, precio de a
Cada escenario es una ganancia o pérdida hipotética del portafolio.
Aplicable a toda clase de activos, aunque no sean lineales.
No es necesario asumir ninguna distribución de probabilidad específica para los reto
Se requieren grandes bases de datos de precios históricos. Por lo tanto, no aplicable
Para tener un buen estimativo Basilea recomienda mínimo un año de información pa
No es válido extrapolar resultados. El horizonte de tiempo para el VaR calculado es e
No es aplicable la regla de la raíz cuadrada para transformar horizonte de tiempo. Si
Supone que en el futuro inmediato se reflejará el pasado reciente. Se asume algún g
Única muestra: los datos históricos permiten realizar una sola simulación.
Sensible al período de tiempo usado. Si se usan muestras pequeñas, le estaríamos d
No es necesario calcular volatilidades y correlaciones. Están implícitas en los datos y
Ordenar esta nueva serie de menor a mayor y escoger el VaR para el nivel de confian
r de la información observada en un determinado período de tiempo.
no paramétrico.
que carecen de historia).
dades utilizadas. Por ejemplo: Si las rentabilidades son diarias, entonces el VaR calculado es
orizonte temporal, se deben calcular rentabilidades para el horizonte de tiempo de interés.
𝐿𝑡 de ganancias o pérdidas:
ntinuación:
es el VaR calculado es diario.
e tiempo de interés.
olatilidad futura.
INVERSIONES(VPN) 1200
RENTABILIDADES Ganancias o pé
BANCOLOMBIA CORFICOLOMBIANA DAVIVIENDA BANCOLOMBIA
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0.00715846000054 14.3169200011
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-0.0011346593267 -2.2693186534
0.00913901954887 18.2780390977
0.00452055252458 9.04110504917
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0.00627075160611 12.5415032122
-0.0101265149199 -20.25302984
0.00458568914999 9.17137829997
-0.0023356577178 -4.6713154356
0.00072690051195 1.4538010239
0.01601105418063 32.0221083613
-0.029329036409 -58.658072818
0.00593004365049 11.860087301
-0.0056252689 -11.2505378
-0.0043025544234 -8.6051088468
0.00139273656 2.78547312001
-0.0073506615258 -14.701323052
-0.0068234211393 -13.646842279
0.00531360153095 10.6272030619
0.00018183489515 0.36366979031
0.00229872214421 4.59744428841
0.0072120620593 14.4241241186
-0.0042607185484 -8.5214370968
-0.0050701137014 -10.140227403
-0.008643638946 -17.287277892
-0.0123718265818 -24.743653164
-0.0049876874911 -9.9753749823
0.01591147191411 31.8229438282
0.00407330069588 8.14660139176
0.00651245497476 13.0249099495
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0.00887940040536 17.7588008107
0.00214053050629 4.28106101258
0.01606451136355 32.1290227271
Número de rentabilidades 269
Nidel de conf 0.975
J* 6.72500000000001 7
BANCOLOMBIA CORFICOLOMBIANA DAVIVIENDA
89.1318649187937 26.8034640309555 11.015066413
BD 26.41999409411
Si J* no es entero se aproxima hacia arriba
VaR del port.
100.981940020663
102.443981788404