Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales

TRABAJO 3 : DISTRIBUCIÓN DE PROBABILIDADES

INTEGRANTES
1.- Carlos Eduardo Tapia Sánchez
2.-
3.-
4.-

Resolver los ejercicios con todos los pasos.

Instrucciones:
Interpretar los resultados.
iales
DADES
 CASO - PACIENTE

Se registró la información de pacientes diagnó

una clínica local.

Gasto semanal por

Condición Practicó Síntomas más
Nro. Paciente Género Edad tratamiento de
laboral actual aislamiento frecuentes
COVID19 (S/.)
1 2 66 2 1 620 2
2 1 44 1 1 3500 1
3 1 69 2 2 1500 3
4 2 55 1 2 2000 4
5 2 43 1 1 2300 3
6 2 68 2 2 938 1
7 1 51 2 1 894 1
8 2 38 2 1 755 2
9 1 62 2 2 905 3
10 1 46 1 1 975 1
11 2 48 2 2 6720 1
12 1 55 1 2 496 4
13 2 62 1 1 4400 3
14 1 72 2 2 4850 4
15 2 36 2 2 5030 3
16 1 68 2 1 1087 4
17 2 67 2 1 4600 4
18 1 58 1 2 4230 2
19 1 60 2 2 791 2
20 1 54 2 1 7000 1
21 2 45 1 1 897 1
22 1 47 2 1 818 3
23 1 48 2 1 4970 4
24 1 54 1 2 632 4
25 2 64 2 1 5001 3
26 1 55 1 2 496 4
27 2 62 1 1 4400 3
28 1 72 2 2 4850 4
29 2 36 2 2 5030 3
30 1 68 2 1 1087 4
31 2 67 2 1 4600 4
32 1 58 1 2 4230 2
33 1 60 2 2 791 2
34 1 54 2 1 7000 1
35 2 45 1 1 897 1
 CASO - PACIENTES

rmación de pacientes diagnósticados con COVID-19 en

Nro. Nro. de días

Enfermedades con los T° C Tipo de Prueba
de Riesgo síntomas
2 3 37.7 2
0 4 38.9 1
3 6 39.5 2
1 6 39.8 1
0 6 40 1
2 4 38.9 1
1 4 39 2
0 4 38.9 2
2 6 39.5 2
1 2 37.5 1
0 2 38 1
1 3 39.7 1
2 3 38.5 2
3 2 39.5 2
0 4 39.8 1
2 5 40 2
2 6 38.9 2
1 2 39 1
2 3 38.9 2
1 3 39.5 1
1 2 37.5 1
1 4 40 1
0 5 40.5 1
1 6 39.8 2
2 5 38.5 1
1 3 39.7 1
2 3 38.5 2
3 2 39.5 2
0 4 39.8 1
2 5 40 2
2 6 38.9 2
1 2 39 1
2 3 38.9 2
1 3 39.5 1
1 2 37.5 1
Binomial distribution

20 n
0.25 p

cumulative
X P(X) probability
0 0.00317 0.00317
1 0.02114 0.02431
2 0.06695 0.09126
3 0.13390 0.22516
4 0.18969 0.41484
5 0.20233 0.61717
6 0.16861 0.78578
7 0.11241 0.89819
8 0.06089 0.95907
9 0.02706 0.98614
10 0.00992 0.99606
11 0.00301 0.99906
12 0.00075 0.99982
13 0.00015 0.99997
14 0.00003 1.00000
15 0.00000 1.00000
16 0.00000 1.00000
17 0.00000 1.00000
18 0.00000 1.00000
19 0.00000 1.00000
20 0.00000 1.00000
1.00000

5.000 expected value

3.750 variance
1.936 standard deviation

Binomial distribution (n = 20, p = 0.25)

0.25

0.20

0.15
P(X)

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X
 0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X

f(X)

X -3,684.22 -1,510.53 663.16 2,836.85 5,010.54

4,800

Normal distribution
P(lower) P(upper) z X mean std.dev
.8168 .1832 0.90 4,800 2,837 2,174

Poisson distribution

30 mean rate of occurrence

cumulative
X P(X) probability
0 0.00000 0.00000
1 0.00000 0.00000
2 0.00000 0.00000
3 0.00000 0.00000
4 0.00000 0.00000
5 0.00000 0.00000
6 0.00000 0.00000
7 0.00000 0.00000
 8 0.00000 0.00000
9 0.00001 0.00001
10 0.00002 0.00002
11 0.00004 0.00006
12 0.00010 0.00017
13 0.00024 0.00041
14 0.00051 0.00092
15 0.00103 0.00195
16 0.00193 0.00387
17 0.00340 0.00727
18 0.00566 0.01293
19 0.00894 0.02187
20 0.01341 0.03528
21 0.01916 0.05444
22 0.02613 0.08057
23 0.03408 0.11465
24 0.04260 0.15724
25 0.05112 0.20836
26 0.05898 0.26734
27 0.06553 0.33287
28 0.07021 0.40308
29 0.07263 0.47572
30 0.07263 0.54835
31 0.07029 0.61864
32 0.06590 0.68454
33 0.05991 0.74445
34 0.05286 0.79731
35 0.04531 0.84262
36 0.03776 0.88037
37 0.03061 0.91099
38 0.02417 0.93516
39 0.01859 0.95375
40 0.01394 0.96769
41 0.01020 0.97789
42 0.00729 0.98518
43 0.00508 0.99026
44 0.00347 0.99373
45 0.00231 0.99604
46 0.00151 0.99755
47 0.00096 0.99851
48 0.00060 0.99911
49 0.00037 0.99948
50 0.00022 0.99970
51 0.00013 0.99983
52 0.00007 0.99991
53 0.00004 0.99995
54 0.00002 0.99997
55 0.00001 0.99999
56 0.00001 0.99999
57 0.00000 1.00000
 58 0.00000 1.00000
59 0.00000 1.00000
60 0.00000 1.00000
61 0.00000 1.00000
62 0.00000 1.00000
63 0.00000 1.00000
64 0.00000 1.00000
65 0.00000 1.00000
1.00000

30.000 expected value

30.000 variance
5.477 standard deviation

Poisson distribution (µ = 30)

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04
P(X)

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00
8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

X
5,010.54 7,184.23 9,357.92
4,800
 PREGUNTA 1

Del caso de la Clinica: se selecciona una muestra de 20 pacientes atendidos en la clínica se sabe que la propabilidad de tener

a. ¿Cuáles son la media y varianza de x?

b. Calcule el intervalo media ± 2s. ¿Cuáles valores de la variable aleatoria binomial x caen en este intervalo?

Datos:
Proporción de éxito 0.25
Proporción de fracaso 0.75
Tamaño de muestra 20

Número de éxitos (X)= { 1, 2, 3,………..20}

Valor de X COMBINAT(n;X)
1 20
2 190
3 1140
4 4845
5 15504
6 38760
7 77520
8 125970
9 167960
10 184756
11 167960
12 125970
13 77520
14 38760
15 15504
16 4845
17 1140
18 190
19 20
20 1

Características:

Media 5
Varianza 3.75
Desviación Estándar
 PREGUNTA 1

atendidos en la clínica se sabe que la propabilidad de tener una enfermedad de riesgo es de 0.25. Calcule:

aleatoria binomial x caen en este intervalo?

p^X q^(n-x) P(X)

0.2500000000000000000 0.004228283 0.02114141293
0.0625000000000000000 0.005637710 0.06694780760
0.0156250000000000000 0.007516947 0.13389561520
0.0039062500000000000 0.010022596 0.18968545487
0.0009765625000000000 0.013363461 0.20233115186
0.0002441406250000000 0.017817948 0.16860929321
0.0000610351562500000 0.023757264 0.11240619548
0.0000152587890625000 0.031676352 0.06088668922
0.0000038146972656250 0.042235136 0.02706075076
0.0000009536743164063 0.056313515 0.00992227528
0.0000002384185791016 0.075084686 0.00300675008
0.0000000596046447754 0.100112915 0.00075168752
0.0000000149011611938 0.133483887 0.00015419231
0.0000000037252902985 0.177978516 0.00002569872
0.0000000009313225746 0.237304688 0.00000342650
0.0000000002328306437 0.316406250 0.00000035693
0.0000000000582076609 0.421875000 0.00000002799
0.0000000000145519152 0.562500000 0.00000000156
0.0000000000036379788 0.750000000 0.00000000005
0.0000000000009094947 1.000000000 0.00000000000
1

1.93649167310371
Funciones Excel:

Número de observaciones 20
Probabilidad de éxito 0.25
Probabilidad de fracaso 0.75

Número de éxitos (y)= {1, 2, 3,………..12}

Valor de X P(X) Probabilidad Acumulada

1 0.02114141292622660 0.02431262487
2 0.06694780759971760 0.09126043246
3 0.13389561519943500 0.22515604766
4 0.18968545486586700 0.41484150253
5 0.20233115185692400 0.61717265439
6 0.16860929321410400 0.78578194760
7 0.11240619547606900 0.89818814308
8 0.06088668921620410 0.95907483229
9 0.02706075076275740 0.98613558306
10 0.00992227527967771 0.99605785834
11 0.00300675008475082 0.99906460842
12 0.00075168752118771 0.99981629594
13 0.00015419231203850 0.99997048825
14 0.00002569871867308 0.99999618697
15 0.00000342649582308 0.99999961347
16 0.00000035692664824 0.99999997040
17 0.00000002799424692 0.99999999839
18 0.00000000155523594 0.99999999994
19 0.00000000005456968 1.00000000000
20 0.00000000000090949 1.00000000000
Total 1
 20 n
0.25 p

cumulative
X P(X) probability
0 0.00317 0.00317
1 0.02114 0.02431
2 0.06695 0.09126
3 0.13390 0.22516
4 0.18969 0.41484
5 0.20233 0.61717
6 0.16861 0.78578
7 0.11241 0.89819
8 0.06089 0.95907
9 0.02706 0.98614
10 0.00992 0.99606
11 0.00301 0.99906
12 0.00075 0.99982
13 0.00015 0.99997
14 0.00003 1.00000
15 0.00000 1.00000
16 0.00000 1.00000
17 0.00000 1.00000
18 0.00000 1.00000
19 0.00000 1.00000
20 0.00000 1.00000
1.00000

5.000 expected value

3.750 variance
1.936 standard deviation

Binomial distribution (n = 20, p = 0.25)

0.25

0.20

0.15
P(X)

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X
0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X
 PREGUNTA 2
Se sabe que el gasto semanal por el tratamiento en promedio es S/. 2836.85 y su desviación estándar es de S/.
2173.69.

a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de gastar más de S/. 4800?

b) ¿Cuál es el gasto semanal en tratamiento que excede el 95% de las muestras?

Media poblacional 2836.85

Desviación estándar poblacional 2173.69

P. GASTAR 4800.00

Estandarizar
X= 0.90

P(Z > 0.90)= 1

Donde:
P(Z ≤ 0.90)= 0.816774642578786

P(X < x) = 0.95 S/ 6,412.25

5 y su desviación estándar es de S/.

stras?

Distribución Normal: P(Menor que) P(Mayor que) z

.8168 .1832 0.90

f(X)

X -3,684.22 -1,510.53 663.16 2,836.85 5,010.54

4,800
 X Media Desv. Estándar
4,800 2,837 2,174

2,836.85 5,010.54 7,184.23 9,357.92

4,800
 PREGUNTA 3
Según los datos de la administración se sabe que en promedio llegan 30 clientes al día a la clínica. Calcular

a) La probabilidad de que lleguen exactamente 5 pacientes en un día.

b) La probabilidad de que lleguen menos de 25 pacientes.

Valor de X λ^X e^-λ

1 30 9.35781180E-14
2 900 9.35781180E-14
3 27000 9.35781180E-14
4 810000 9.35781180E-14
5 24300000 9.35781180E-14
6 729000000 9.35781180E-14
7 2.187000000E+10 9.35781180E-14
8 6.561000000E+11 9.35781180E-14
9 1.968300000E+13 9.35781180E-14
10 5.904900000E+14 9.35781180E-14
11 1.771470000E+16 9.35781180E-14
12 5.314410000E+17 9.35781180E-14
13 1.594323000E+19 9.35781180E-14
14 4.782969000E+20 9.35781180E-14
15 1.434890700E+22 9.35781180E-14
16 4.304672100E+23 9.35781180E-14
17 1.291401630E+25 9.35781180E-14
18 3.874204890E+26 9.35781180E-14
19 1.162261467E+28 9.35781180E-14
20 3.486784401E+29 9.35781180E-14
21 1.046035320E+31 9.35781180E-14
22 3.138105961E+32 9.35781180E-14
23 9.414317883E+33 9.35781180E-14
24 2.824295365E+35 9.35781180E-14
25 8.472886094E+36 9.35781180E-14
26 2.541865828E+38 9.35781180E-14
27 7.625597485E+39 9.35781180E-14
28 2.287679245E+41 9.35781180E-14
29 6.863037736E+42 9.35781180E-14
30 2.058911321E+44 9.35781180E-14
31 6.176733963E+45 9.35781180E-14
32 1.853020189E+47 9.35781180E-14
33 5.559060567E+48 9.35781180E-14
34 1.667718170E+50 9.35781180E-14
35 5.003154510E+51 9.35781180E-14
EGUNTA 3
entes al día a la clínica. Calcular
Número esperado
Constante neper
Valor de X=

X! P(X)
1 2.80734354E-12
2 4.21101531E-11
6 4.21101531E-10
24 3.15826148E-09 P(X=5)=( 〖 30 〗 ^5 e^(−5))/5!=("2430000
120 1.89495689E-08
720 9.47478445E-08
5040 4.06062191E-07 Función Excel:
40320 1.52273322E-06
362880 5.07577738E-06
3628800 1.52273322E-05
39916800 4.15290877E-05
479001600 1.03822719E-04
6227020800 2.39590891E-04 P(X<25)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+…+P(X
87178291200 5.13409051E-04
P(X>25)=0.15724203
1307674368000 1.02681810E-03
20922789888000 1.92528394E-03
355687428096000 3.39755990E-03 Función Excel:
6402373705728000 5.66259983E-03
1.21645100408832E+017 8.94094710E-03
2.43290200817664E+018 1.34114206E-02
5.10909421717094E+019 1.91591724E-02
1.12400072777761E+021 2.61261441E-02
2.5852016738885E+022 3.40775793E-02
6.20448401733239E+023 4.25969741E-02
1.5511210043331E+025 5.11163689E-02
4.03291461126606E+026 5.89804257E-02
1.08888694504184E+028 6.55338063E-02
3.04888344611714E+029 7.02147925E-02
8.8417619937397E+030 7.26359922E-02
2.65252859812191E+032 7.26359922E-02
8.22283865417792E+033 7.02928957E-02
2.63130836933694E+035 6.58995897E-02
8.68331761881189E+036 5.99087179E-02
2.95232799039604E+038 5.28606335E-02
1.03331479663861E+040 4.53091144E-02
 30
2.71828
={0,1,2,…………}

e^(−5))/5!=("24300000 " 〖 ("9.35781E−14 " ) 〗 ^(−5))/120=("24300000" (0.13533547))/120="1.89496E−08 "

P(X = 5) = 1.8949186512E-08

X=2)+P(X=3)+…+P(X=24)

P(X < 25) = 0.15724202723839

 valor de X P(X) Probabilidad Acumulada

1 2.80728689E-12 2.9008631E-12
2 4.21093034E-11 4.5010166E-11
3 4.21093034E-10 4.6610320E-10
4 3.15819775E-09 3.6243010E-09
5 1.89491865E-08 2.2573487E-08
/120="1.89496E−08 " 6 9.47459326E-08 1.1731942E-07
7 4.06053997E-07 5.2337342E-07
8 1.52270249E-06 2.0460759E-06
9 5.07567496E-06 7.1217509E-06
10 1.52270249E-05 2.2348776E-05
11 4.15282497E-05 6.3877025E-05
12 1.03820624E-04 1.6769765E-04
13 2.39586056E-04 4.0728371E-04
14 5.13398691E-04 9.2068240E-04
15 1.02679738E-03 1.9474798E-03
16 1.92524509E-03 3.8727249E-03
17 3.39749134E-03 7.2702162E-03
18 5.66248556E-03 1.2932702E-02
19 8.94076668E-03 2.1873468E-02
20 1.34111500E-02 3.5284618E-02
21 1.91587857E-02 5.4443404E-02
22 2.61256169E-02 8.0569021E-02
23 3.40768916E-02 1.1464591E-01
24 4.25961145E-02 1.5724203E-01
25 5.11153374E-02 2.0835736E-01
26 5.89792355E-02 2.6733660E-01
27 6.55324839E-02 3.3286908E-01
28 7.02133756E-02 4.0308246E-01
29 7.26345265E-02 4.7571699E-01
30 7.26345265E-02 5.4835151E-01
31 7.02914772E-02 6.1864299E-01
32 6.58982599E-02 6.8454125E-01
33 5.99075090E-02 7.4444876E-01
34 5.28595668E-02 7.9730833E-01
35 4.53082001E-02 8.4261653E-01
 Media 30

Varianza 30

Desviación estándar 5.47722557505166

Poisson distribution

cumulative
X P(X) probability

0 0.00000 0.00000
1 0.00000 0.00000

2 0.00000 0.00000
3 0.00000 0.00000
4 0.00000 0.00000
5 0.00000 0.00000
6 0.00000 0.00000
7 0.00000 0.00000
8 0.00000 0.00000
9 0.00001 0.00001
10 0.00002 0.00002
11 0.00004 0.00006
12 0.00010 0.00017
13 0.00024 0.00041
14 0.00051 0.00092
15 0.00103 0.00195
16 0.00193 0.00387
17 0.00340 0.00727
18 0.00566 0.01293
19 0.00894 0.02187
20 0.01341 0.03528
21 0.01916 0.05444
22 0.02613 0.08057
23 0.03408 0.11465
24 0.04260 0.15724
25 0.05112 0.20836
26 0.05898 0.26734
27 0.06553 0.33287
28 0.07021 0.40308
29 0.07263 0.47572
30 0.07263 0.54835
31 0.07029 0.61864
32 0.06590 0.68454
33 0.05991 0.74445
34 0.05286 0.79731
35 0.04531 0.84262
36 0.03776 0.88037
 37 0.03061 0.91099
38 0.02417 0.93516
39 0.01859 0.95375
40 0.01394 0.96769
41 0.01020 0.97789
42 0.00729 0.98518
43 0.00508 0.99026
44 0.00347 0.99373
45 0.00231 0.99604
46 0.00151 0.99755
47 0.00096 0.99851
48 0.00060 0.99911
49 0.00037 0.99948
50 0.00022 0.99970
51 0.00013 0.99983
52 0.00007 0.99991
53 0.00004 0.99995
54 0.00002 0.99997
55 0.00001 0.99999
56 0.00001 0.99999
57 0.00000 1.00000
58 0.00000 1.00000
59 0.00000 1.00000
60 0.00000 1.00000
61 0.00000 1.00000
62 0.00000 1.00000
63 0.00000 1.00000
64 0.00000 1.00000
65 0.00000 1.00000
1.00000

30.000 expected value

30.000 variance
5.477 standard deviation

Poisson distribution (µ = 30)

0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
P(X)

0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

X
0.02
0.01
0.00
8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59