Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9466206 Es fin de semana?
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.896 Valor del Coupon o Dscto
R^2 ajustado 0.88839357
Error típico 4.44588396 Pronostico de Alquiler de Cayaks =
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 4602.32113 2301.16056 116.420826 5.30692E-14
Residuos 27 533.678873 19.7658842
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 39.6619718 1.55756022 25.4641659 2.0635E-20 36.4661222
Coupon 87.2112676 8.3663545 10.4240464 5.78173E-11 70.0449261
Weekend 33.3380282 2.21285548 15.0656148 1.15788E-14 28.7976238
 0
0%

40

or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
42.8578214 36.4661222 42.8578214
104.377609 70.0449261 104.377609
37.8784326 28.7976238 37.8784326
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.70344293
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.495
R^2 ajustado 0.4574121
Error típico 9.80276434
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 2541.45691 1270.72845 13.2237804 9.91709E-05
Residuos 27 2594.54309 96.0941887
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 49.5884879 3.7463837 13.2363612 2.54923E-13 41.9015435
Weekend 20.0500971 4.06946591 4.92696034 3.70613E-05 11.7002428
Day 0.19773029 0.20791378 0.95102063 0.35003013 -0.22887354
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
57.2754323 41.9015435 57.2754323
28.3999515 11.7002428 28.3999515
0.62433413 -0.22887354 0.62433413
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.25297053
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.064
R^2 ajustado -0.00533968
Error típico 13.343505
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 328.673638 164.336819 0.92298583 0.40950668
Residuos 27 4807.32636 178.049125
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 51.3798843 5.50509193 9.33315647 6.10925E-10 40.0843687
Day 0.30763514 0.28148365 1.09290588 0.28409088 -0.26992161
Coupon 17.0932707 20.8300606 0.8206059 0.41905717 -25.6464834
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
62.6754 40.0843687 62.6754
0.88519189 -0.26992161 0.88519189
59.8330248 -25.6464834 59.8330248
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.69131031
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.478
R^2 ajustado 0.45926387
Error típico 9.78602237
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 2454.54545 2454.54545 25.630594 2.33664E-05
Residuos 28 2681.45455 95.7662338
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 52.5454545 2.08638698 25.1849034 8.88921E-21 48.2716846
Weekend 20.4545455 4.04027101 5.06266669 2.33664E-05 12.1784255
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
56.8192245 48.2716846 56.8192245
28.7306654 12.1784255 28.7306654
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.15028793
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.023
R^2 ajustado -0.01232117
Error típico 13.3897561
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 116.004061 116.004061 0.64703513 0.42795195
Residuos 28 5019.99594 179.285569
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 56.1786802 3.33211107 16.8597862 3.39314E-16 49.3531601
Coupon 16.8121827 20.9006683 0.80438494 0.42795195 -26.0008955
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
63.0042003 49.3531601 63.0042003
59.6252609 -26.0008955 59.6252609
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.20161749
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.041
R^2 ajustado 0.0063871
Error típico 13.265454
Observaciones 30

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 208.776418 208.776418 1.18641657 0.28533979
Residuos 28 4927.22358 175.972271
Total 29 5136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 53.2758621 4.96755184 10.7247722 2.00892E-11 43.1002934
Day 0.30478309 0.27981582 1.08922751 0.28533979 -0.26839364
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
63.4514307 43.1002934 63.4514307
0.87795982 -0.26839364 0.87795982
 Date Day Coupon Weekend Rentals Cayak
1/9/2014 1 0% 0 35
2/9/2014 2 0% 0 36
3/9/2014 3 0% 0 39 Rentals
4/9/2014 4 0% 0 41
90
5/9/2014 5 0% 0 42
80
6/9/2014 6 0% 1 76
7/9/2014 7 0% 1 72 70

8/9/2014 8 30% 0 60 60 f(x) = 0.304783092324805 x + 53.27586

9/9/2014 9 30% 0 63 R² = 0.0406496141437873
50
10/9/2014 10 30% 0 70 40
11/9/2014 11 30% 0 65
30
12/9/2014 12 30% 0 70
20
9/13/2014 13 0% 1 71
9/14/2014 14 0% 1 66 10
9/15/2014 15 20% 0 52 0
0 5 10 15
9/16/2014 16 20% 0 56
9/17/2014 17 20% 0 59
9/18/2014 18 20% 0 57
Rentals C
9/19/2014 19 20% 0 51
9/20/2014 20 0% 1 76 90

9/21/2014 21 0% 1 71 80
9/22/2014 22 15% 0 53 70
9/23/2014 23 15% 0 61 60
9/24/2014 24 15% 0 49
50
9/25/2014 25 15% 0 57
40
9/26/2014 26 15% 0 60
9/27/2014 27 0% 1 83 30
9/28/2014 28 0% 1 69 20
9/29/2014 29 0% 0 40 10
9/30/2014 30 0% 0 40
0
0% 5% 10% 15%

Rentals C
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
40
30
20
10
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
 Rentals Cayak

= 0.304783092324805 x + 53.2758620689655
0.0406496141437873

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Rentals Cayak

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Rentals Cayak

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Semana Casio Prizm
F (t) a b Alfa 0.5
1 18
2 29 25 18 7
3 25 27 24 3
4 35 26 25 1
5 40 32 30 2 Ca
6 45 37 35 2
60
7 49 42 40 2
8 42 47 45 2 50
9 31 43 44 0
40
10 30 35 37 -2
11 25 32 33 -2 30
12 22 27 29 -2
20
13 24 25 -1
(4) 10

0
1 2 3
 Beta 0.33 Pi 0.2

Calculadoras UNI
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Casio Prizm
 Mov Mov
a) (3) b) (5)
Simple Ponderado
Mes Real (und) Mov Simple Mov Ponderado
EMPA
n=3 n=3
Error Error
May-13 38,000
Jun-13 42,000
Jul-13 52,000
Aug-13 50,000 44,000 47,600 6,000 2,400 12.0%
sep-13 48,000 48,000 49,800 - - 1,800 0.0%

6,000 600 6.00%

c) Suavizacion Exponencial Alfa= 0.6

Real (und) EMPA

Aug-13 50,000 Pronostico Ago = 47,600 4.8%
sep-13 48,000 Pronostico Set = 49,040 2.2%
d) 3.5%
EMPA
Real (und)
60,800
50,800
4.8% 40,800
3.8% 30,800
20,800
4.27%
10,800
800
41380 41400 41420 41440 41460 41480 41500
 Alfa 0.1
Beta 0.08
Gamma 0.05

t Day Real a b F Pronos t

100 M 0.500
101 T 0.750
102 W 1.250
103 R 1.000
104 F 1.500
105 M 76 121.0 0.3 0.506 60.7
106 T 124.4 0.5 93.7
Lost Sale 3 Excess of u 2 164,878 69,366
323.0 96.5 -243.8 VALORIZADO
Games Actual Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 MD 1 MD 2 MD 3 MD 1 MD 2
Game 1 4286 3929 4275 4204 357 11 82 1071 33
Game 2 2733 2141 2674 3225 592 59 -492 1776 177
Game 3 3536 3279 3528 3811 257 8 -275 771 24
Game 4 2513 2310 2473 2887 203 40 -374 609 120
Game 5 5026 4826 5094 5351 200 -68 -325 600 136
Game 6 3170 2464 3060 3249 706 110 -79 2118 330
Game 7 4423 3605 4216 4538 818 207 -115 2454 621
Game 8 4673 4498 4684 5029 175 -11 -356 525 22
Game 9 4171 3963 4103 4623 208 68 -452 624 204
Game 10 2794 2394 2721 2750 400 73 44 1200 219
Game 11 2931 2263 2995 3539 668 -64 -608 2004 128
Game 12 3359 2947 3508 3732 412 -149 -373 1236 298
Game 13 4502 3685 4343 4608 817 159 -106 2451 477
Game 14 2871 2834 2937 3435 37 -66 -564 111 132
Game 15 4365 3536 4134 4500 829 231 -135 2487 693
Game 16 3112 2333 2907 3109 779 205 3 2337 615
Game 17 2520 2017 2613 2786 503 -93 -266 1509 186
Game 18 4434 4001 4340 4648 433 94 -214 1299 282
Game 19 3938 3742 3603 4066 196 335 -128 588 1005
Game 20 2423 2412 2085 2819 11 338 -396 33 1014
Game 21 4983 4362 4960 5515 621 23 -532 1863 69
Game 22 4844 4716 4869 5397 128 -25 -553 384 50
Game 23 4067 4117 3823 4493 -50 244 -426 100 732
Game 24 4727 4445 4710 4658 282 17 69 846 51
Game 25 2954 2908 2617 3257 46 337 -303 138 1011
Game 26 4492 3923 4463 4549 569 29 -57 1707 87
Game 27 4536 4362 4459 5062 174 77 -526 522 231
Game 28 4009 3307 3982 4251 702 27 -242 2106 81
Game 29 4363 4368 4506 4791 -5 -143 -428 10 286
Game 30 3760 3040 3893 3818 720 -133 -58 2160 266
Game 31 4634 4335 4384 5212 299 250 -578 897 750
Game 32 3768 3842 3722 3885 -74 46 -117 148 138
Game 33 3082 2597 3066 3510 485 16 -428 1455 48
Game 34 4978 5100 5164 5453 -122 -186 -475 244 372
Game 35 3125 3203 3279 3478 -78 -154 -353 156 308
Game 36 4202 3858 4195 4673 344 7 -471 1032 21
Game 37 4287 3975 3977 4217 312 310 70 936 930
Game 38 2661 2742 2708 2854 -81 -47 -193 162 94
Game 39 4305 4326 4134 4721 -21 171 -416 42 513
Game 40 4318 4115 3956 4873 203 362 -555 609 1086
Game 41 3565 2974 3385 3963 591 180 -398 1773 540
Game 42 2440 2363 2477 2760 77 -37 -320 231 74
Game 43 2515 2093 2339 3105 422 176 -590 1266 528
Game 44 4187 3642 3828 4226 545 359 -39 1635 1077
Game 45 2801 2480 2745 2694 321 56 107 963 168
Game 46 3532 3344 3570 3935 188 -38 -403 564 76
Game 47 3136 3168 3055 3144 -32 81 -8 64 243
Game 48 4705 4302 4481 5147 403 224 -442 1209 672
Game 49 4092 3876 3837 4414 216 255 -322 648 765
Game 50 3551 3427 3261 4117 124 290 -566 372 870
Game 51 4880 4102 4521 4975 778 359 -95 2334 1077
Game 52 4405 3719 4143 4493 686 262 -88 2058 786
Game 53 3804 3822 3743 4336 -18 61 -532 36 183
Game 54 4730 4272 4424 5173 458 306 -443 1374 918
Game 55 3658 3550 3703 3812 108 -45 -154 324 90
Game 56 3783 3416 3713 3839 367 70 -56 1101 210
Game 57 2473 1693 2454 2452 780 19 21 2340 57
Game 58 5059 4984 5059 5562 75 0 -503 225 0
Game 59 4273 4244 4462 4415 29 -189 -142 87 378
Game 60 4092 3423 3778 4028 669 314 64 2007 942
Game 61 2504 2357 2607 2501 147 -103 3 441 206
Game 62 2489 1904 2363 2403 585 126 86 1755 378
Game 63 4080 3332 4079 4193 748 1 -113 2244 3
Game 64 4042 3906 3957 3922 136 85 120 408 255
Game 65 4542 4441 4701 4894 101 -159 -352 303 318
Game 66 4050 3411 4148 4263 639 -98 -213 1917 196
Game 67 4992 5098 4856 5163 -106 136 -171 212 408
Game 68 2829 2627 2729 2782 202 100 47 606 300
Game 69 3770 3368 3796 4156 402 -26 -386 1206 52
Game 70 4252 3890 4102 4335 362 150 -83 1086 450
Game 71 2430 2074 2128 2541 356 302 -111 1068 906
Game 72 3772 3251 3575 3836 521 197 -64 1563 591
Game 73 3652 3310 3770 3839 342 -118 -187 1026 236
Game 74 4993 4577 4874 5532 416 119 -539 1248 357
Game 75 3214 2862 2969 3648 352 245 -434 1056 735
Game 76 4193 4174 4154 4198 19 39 -5 57 117
Game 77 4293 3599 4278 4471 694 15 -178 2082 45
Game 78 4829 4397 4494 5100 432 335 -271 1296 1005
Game 79 3283 3386 2975 3873 -103 308 -590 206 924
Game 80 2524 1915 2280 2490 609 244 34 1827 732
Game 81 4591 4295 4301 4766 296 290 -175 888 870
Game 1 3900 3603 4029 3893 297 -129 7 891 258
Game 2 4295 3670 4452 4317 625 -157 -22 1875 314
Game 3 4331 3718 4296 4596 613 35 -265 1839 105
Game 4 3850 3482 4045 4085 368 -195 -235 1104 390
Game 5 4053 3665 3693 4115 388 360 -62 1164 1080
Game 6 4552 4186 4612 4963 366 -60 -411 1098 120
Game 7 5077 5086 4926 5311 -9 151 -234 18 453
Game 8 3000 2489 2766 3022 511 234 -22 1533 702
Game 9 4917 5031 4910 5362 -114 7 -445 228 21
Game 10 2767 2466 2644 3233 301 123 -466 903 369
Game 11 3607 3149 3749 3565 458 -142 42 1374 284
Game 12 5034 4765 5224 5302 269 -190 -268 807 380
Game 13 3123 2542 2754 3320 581 369 -197 1743 1107
Game 14 2676 2749 2553 2781 -73 123 -105 146 369
Game 15 2473 2573 2660 2350 -100 -187 123 200 374
Game 16 4013 3208 3980 4296 805 33 -283 2415 99
Game 17 4757 4601 4732 4974 156 25 -217 468 75
Game 18 4397 4249 4215 4368 148 182 29 444 546
Game 19 4139 4233 4034 4344 -94 105 -205 188 315
Game 20 3262 2826 3243 3634 436 19 -372 1308 57
Game 21 3275 3148 3112 3655 127 163 -380 381 489
Game 22 4643 4595 4352 4804 48 291 -161 144 873
Game 23 2429 2510 2294 2798 -81 135 -369 162 405
Game 24 4063 3283 3928 4674 780 135 -611 2340 405
Game 25 3091 3105 2949 3569 -14 142 -478 28 426
Game 26 2498 2323 2214 2594 175 284 -96 525 852
Game 27 3939 3281 3868 4467 658 71 -528 1974 213
Game 28 4019 4029 3954 3916 -10 65 103 20 195
Game 29 4986 4165 4617 4912 821 369 74 2463 1107
Game 30 4126 3374 3858 4602 752 268 -476 2256 804
Game 31 2543 1786 2499 2782 757 44 -239 2271 132
Game 32 2545 2154 2330 2926 391 215 -381 1173 645
Game 33 3508 3283 3501 4045 225 7 -537 675 21
Game 34 4322 4269 4395 4783 53 -73 -461 159 146
Game 35 3502 3270 3481 4028 232 21 -526 696 63
Game 36 3124 2654 2795 3252 470 329 -128 1410 987
Game 37 3954 4013 3639 4105 -59 315 -151 118 945
Game 38 3008 2670 3130 3243 338 -122 -235 1014 244
Game 39 4274 3823 4303 4407 451 -29 -133 1353 58
Game 40 3593 3165 3233 3547 428 360 46 1284 1080
Game 41 4543 4564 4625 4621 -21 -82 -78 42 164
Game 42 3086 2996 3196 3164 90 -110 -78 270 220
Game 43 2530 2235 2236 2651 295 294 -121 885 882
Game 44 4376 3916 4290 4758 460 86 -382 1380 258
Game 45 4976 4976 5047 5076 0 -71 -100 0 142
Game 46 4348 3732 4040 4306 616 308 42 1848 924
Game 47 2564 2022 2228 3036 542 336 -472 1626 1008
Game 48 4995 4920 4981 5469 75 14 -474 225 42
Game 49 4076 3496 3984 4588 580 92 -512 1740 276
Game 50 2674 2519 2548 3051 155 126 -377 465 378
Game 51 3527 3156 3571 3421 371 -44 106 1113 88
Game 52 4605 4251 4294 5071 354 311 -466 1062 933
Game 53 4104 3885 3830 4547 219 274 -443 657 822
Game 54 4832 4128 4770 4708 704 62 124 2112 186
Game 55 4555 4029 4460 5133 526 95 -578 1578 285
Game 56 3320 2698 3526 3603 622 -206 -283 1866 412
Game 57 2643 2200 2350 3226 443 293 -583 1329 879
Game 58 2589 2475 2749 2606 114 -160 -17 342 320
Game 59 5005 4658 4676 5023 347 329 -18 1041 987
Game 60 3049 2457 3154 3474 592 -105 -425 1776 210
Game 61 3646 3748 3599 3891 -102 47 -245 204 141
Game 62 3486 3422 3190 4023 64 296 -537 192 888
Game 63 3872 3554 3921 4408 318 -49 -536 954 98
Game 64 4956 4392 4951 5356 564 5 -400 1692 15
Game 65 4173 3981 4100 4773 192 73 -600 576 219
Game 66 4193 3982 3850 4206 211 343 -13 633 1029
Game 67 4556 4311 4327 5106 245 229 -550 735 687
Game 68 4046 3272 3981 4020 774 65 26 2322 195
Game 69 4811 4471 4483 5073 340 328 -262 1020 984
Game 70 3777 3259 3714 4037 518 63 -260 1554 189
Game 71 4508 4188 4276 4862 320 232 -354 960 696
Game 72 3490 3536 3167 3451 -46 323 39 92 969
Game 73 3832 3917 3622 3894 -85 210 -62 170 630
Game 74 3471 3553 3438 3650 -82 33 -179 164 99
Game 75 3875 3497 3572 3805 378 303 70 1134 909
Game 76 3303 2909 3405 3388 394 -102 -85 1182 204
Game 77 2845 2466 2779 3211 379 66 -366 1137 198
Game 78 3246 3043 3449 3853 203 -203 -607 609 406
Game 79 2688 2104 2655 2619 584 33 69 1752 99
Game 80 2861 2499 2544 2921 362 317 -60 1086 951
Game 81 4647 4402 4776 4623 245 -129 24 735 258
 87,350 RMSE 417 188 325
VALORIZADO 342.5 152.0 264.4 173,740 35,395 105,800 8.87% 2.65%
MD 3 MAD 1 MAD 2 MAD 3 MSE 1 MSE 2 MSE 3 MPE 1 MPE 2
246 357 11 82 127449 121 6724 8% 0%
984 592 59 492 350464 3481 242064 22% 2%
550 257 8 275 66049 64 75625 7% 0%
748 203 40 374 41209 1600 139876 8% 2%
650 200 68 325 40000 4624 105625 4% -1%
158 706 110 79 498436 12100 6241 22% 3%
230 818 207 115 669124 42849 13225 18% 5%
712 175 11 356 30625 121 126736 4% 0%
904 208 68 452 43264 4624 204304 5% 2%
132 400 73 44 160000 5329 1936 14% 3%
1216 668 64 608 446224 4096 369664 23% -2%
746 412 149 373 169744 22201 139129 12% -4%
212 817 159 106 667489 25281 11236 18% 4%
1128 37 66 564 1369 4356 318096 1% -2%
270 829 231 135 687241 53361 18225 19% 5%
9 779 205 3 606841 42025 9 25% 7%
532 503 93 266 253009 8649 70756 20% -4%
428 433 94 214 187489 8836 45796 10% 2%
256 196 335 128 38416 112225 16384 5% 9%
792 11 338 396 121 114244 156816 0% 14%
1064 621 23 532 385641 529 283024 12% 0%
1106 128 25 553 16384 625 305809 3% -1%
852 50 244 426 2500 59536 181476 -1% 6%
207 282 17 69 79524 289 4761 6% 0%
606 46 337 303 2116 113569 91809 2% 11%
114 569 29 57 323761 841 3249 13% 1%
1052 174 77 526 30276 5929 276676 4% 2%
484 702 27 242 492804 729 58564 18% 1%
856 5 143 428 25 20449 183184 0% -3%
116 720 133 58 518400 17689 3364 19% -4%
1156 299 250 578 89401 62500 334084 6% 5%
234 74 46 117 5476 2116 13689 -2% 1%
856 485 16 428 235225 256 183184 16% 1%
950 122 186 475 14884 34596 225625 -2% -4%
706 78 154 353 6084 23716 124609 -2% -5%
942 344 7 471 118336 49 221841 8% 0%
210 312 310 70 97344 96100 4900 7% 7%
386 81 47 193 6561 2209 37249 -3% -2%
832 21 171 416 441 29241 173056 0% 4%
1110 203 362 555 41209 131044 308025 5% 8%
796 591 180 398 349281 32400 158404 17% 5%
640 77 37 320 5929 1369 102400 3% -2%
1180 422 176 590 178084 30976 348100 17% 7%
78 545 359 39 297025 128881 1521 13% 9%
321 321 56 107 103041 3136 11449 11% 2%
 806 188 38 403 35344 1444 162409 5% -1%
16 32 81 8 1024 6561 64 -1% 3%
884 403 224 442 162409 50176 195364 9% 5%
644 216 255 322 46656 65025 103684 5% 6%
1132 124 290 566 15376 84100 320356 3% 8%
190 778 359 95 605284 128881 9025 16% 7%
176 686 262 88 470596 68644 7744 16% 6%
1064 18 61 532 324 3721 283024 0% 2%
886 458 306 443 209764 93636 196249 10% 6%
308 108 45 154 11664 2025 23716 3% -1%
112 367 70 56 134689 4900 3136 10% 2%
63 780 19 21 608400 361 441 32% 1%
1006 75 0 503 5625 0 253009 1% 0%
284 29 189 142 841 35721 20164 1% -4%
192 669 314 64 447561 98596 4096 16% 8%
9 147 103 3 21609 10609 9 6% -4%
258 585 126 86 342225 15876 7396 24% 5%
226 748 1 113 559504 1 12769 18% 0%
360 136 85 120 18496 7225 14400 3% 2%
704 101 159 352 10201 25281 123904 2% -4%
426 639 98 213 408321 9604 45369 16% -2%
342 106 136 171 11236 18496 29241 -2% 3%
141 202 100 47 40804 10000 2209 7% 4%
772 402 26 386 161604 676 148996 11% -1%
166 362 150 83 131044 22500 6889 9% 4%
222 356 302 111 126736 91204 12321 15% 12%
128 521 197 64 271441 38809 4096 14% 5%
374 342 118 187 116964 13924 34969 9% -3%
1078 416 119 539 173056 14161 290521 8% 2%
868 352 245 434 123904 60025 188356 11% 8%
10 19 39 5 361 1521 25 0% 1%
356 694 15 178 481636 225 31684 16% 0%
542 432 335 271 186624 112225 73441 9% 7%
1180 103 308 590 10609 94864 348100 -3% 9%
102 609 244 34 370881 59536 1156 24% 10%
350 296 290 175 87616 84100 30625 6% 6%
21 297 129 7 88209 16641 49 8% -3%
44 625 157 22 390625 24649 484 15% -4%
530 613 35 265 375769 1225 70225 14% 1%
470 368 195 235 135424 38025 55225 10% -5%
124 388 360 62 150544 129600 3844 10% 9%
822 366 60 411 133956 3600 168921 8% -1%
468 9 151 234 81 22801 54756 0% 3%
44 511 234 22 261121 54756 484 17% 8%
890 114 7 445 12996 49 198025 -2% 0%
932 301 123 466 90601 15129 217156 11% 4%
126 458 142 42 209764 20164 1764 13% -4%
536 269 190 268 72361 36100 71824 5% -4%
 394 581 369 197 337561 136161 38809 19% 12%
210 73 123 105 5329 15129 11025 -3% 5%
369 100 187 123 10000 34969 15129 -4% -8%
566 805 33 283 648025 1089 80089 20% 1%
434 156 25 217 24336 625 47089 3% 1%
87 148 182 29 21904 33124 841 3% 4%
410 94 105 205 8836 11025 42025 -2% 3%
744 436 19 372 190096 361 138384 13% 1%
760 127 163 380 16129 26569 144400 4% 5%
322 48 291 161 2304 84681 25921 1% 6%
738 81 135 369 6561 18225 136161 -3% 6%
1222 780 135 611 608400 18225 373321 19% 3%
956 14 142 478 196 20164 228484 0% 5%
192 175 284 96 30625 80656 9216 7% 11%
1056 658 71 528 432964 5041 278784 17% 2%
309 10 65 103 100 4225 10609 0% 2%
222 821 369 74 674041 136161 5476 16% 7%
952 752 268 476 565504 71824 226576 18% 6%
478 757 44 239 573049 1936 57121 30% 2%
762 391 215 381 152881 46225 145161 15% 8%
1074 225 7 537 50625 49 288369 6% 0%
922 53 73 461 2809 5329 212521 1% -2%
1052 232 21 526 53824 441 276676 7% 1%
256 470 329 128 220900 108241 16384 15% 11%
302 59 315 151 3481 99225 22801 -1% 8%
470 338 122 235 114244 14884 55225 11% -4%
266 451 29 133 203401 841 17689 11% -1%
138 428 360 46 183184 129600 2116 12% 10%
156 21 82 78 441 6724 6084 0% -2%
156 90 110 78 8100 12100 6084 3% -4%
242 295 294 121 87025 86436 14641 12% 12%
764 460 86 382 211600 7396 145924 11% 2%
200 0 71 100 0 5041 10000 0% -1%
126 616 308 42 379456 94864 1764 14% 7%
944 542 336 472 293764 112896 222784 21% 13%
948 75 14 474 5625 196 224676 2% 0%
1024 580 92 512 336400 8464 262144 14% 2%
754 155 126 377 24025 15876 142129 6% 5%
318 371 44 106 137641 1936 11236 11% -1%
932 354 311 466 125316 96721 217156 8% 7%
886 219 274 443 47961 75076 196249 5% 7%
372 704 62 124 495616 3844 15376 15% 1%
1156 526 95 578 276676 9025 334084 12% 2%
566 622 206 283 386884 42436 80089 19% -6%
1166 443 293 583 196249 85849 339889 17% 11%
34 114 160 17 12996 25600 289 4% -6%
36 347 329 18 120409 108241 324 7% 7%
850 592 105 425 350464 11025 180625 19% -3%
 490 102 47 245 10404 2209 60025 -3% 1%
1074 64 296 537 4096 87616 288369 2% 8%
1072 318 49 536 101124 2401 287296 8% -1%
800 564 5 400 318096 25 160000 11% 0%
1200 192 73 600 36864 5329 360000 5% 2%
26 211 343 13 44521 117649 169 5% 8%
1100 245 229 550 60025 52441 302500 5% 5%
78 774 65 26 599076 4225 676 19% 2%
524 340 328 262 115600 107584 68644 7% 7%
520 518 63 260 268324 3969 67600 14% 2%
708 320 232 354 102400 53824 125316 7% 5%
117 46 323 39 2116 104329 1521 -1% 9%
124 85 210 62 7225 44100 3844 -2% 5%
358 82 33 179 6724 1089 32041 -2% 1%
210 378 303 70 142884 91809 4900 10% 8%
170 394 102 85 155236 10404 7225 12% -3%
732 379 66 366 143641 4356 133956 13% 2%
1214 203 203 607 41209 41209 368449 6% -6%
207 584 33 69 341056 1089 4761 22% 1%
120 362 317 60 131044 100489 3600 13% 11%
72 245 129 24 60025 16641 576 5% -3%
 -6.65% 9.43% 4.21% 7.24%
MPE 3 MAPE 1 MAPE 2 MAPE 3
2% 8% 0% 2%
-18% 22% 2% 18%
-8% 7% 0% 8%
-15% 8% 2% 15%
-6% 4% 1% 6%
-2% 22% 3% 2%
-3% 18% 5% 3%
-8% 4% 0% 8%
-11% 5% 2% 11%
2% 14% 3% 2%
-21% 23% 2% 21%
-11% 12% 4% 11%
-2% 18% 4% 2%
-20% 1% 2% 20%
-3% 19% 5% 3%
0% 25% 7% 0%
-11% 20% 4% 11%
-5% 10% 2% 5%
-3% 5% 9% 3%
-16% 0% 14% 16%
-11% 12% 0% 11%
-11% 3% 1% 11%
-10% 1% 6% 10%
1% 6% 0% 1%
-10% 2% 11% 10%
-1% 13% 1% 1%
-12% 4% 2% 12%
-6% 18% 1% 6%
-10% 0% 3% 10%
-2% 19% 4% 2%
-12% 6% 5% 12%
-3% 2% 1% 3%
-14% 16% 1% 14%
-10% 2% 4% 10%
-11% 2% 5% 11%
-11% 8% 0% 11%
2% 7% 7% 2%
-7% 3% 2% 7%
-10% 0% 4% 10%
-13% 5% 8% 13%
-11% 17% 5% 11%
-13% 3% 2% 13%
-23% 17% 7% 23%
-1% 13% 9% 1%
4% 11% 2% 4%
-11% 5% 1% 11%
0% 1% 3% 0%
-9% 9% 5% 9%
-8% 5% 6% 8%
-16% 3% 8% 16%
-2% 16% 7% 2%
-2% 16% 6% 2%
-14% 0% 2% 14%
-9% 10% 6% 9%
-4% 3% 1% 4%
-1% 10% 2% 1%
1% 32% 1% 1%
-10% 1% 0% 10%
-3% 1% 4% 3%
2% 16% 8% 2%
0% 6% 4% 0%
3% 24% 5% 3%
-3% 18% 0% 3%
3% 3% 2% 3%
-8% 2% 4% 8%
-5% 16% 2% 5%
-3% 2% 3% 3%
2% 7% 4% 2%
-10% 11% 1% 10%
-2% 9% 4% 2%
-5% 15% 12% 5%
-2% 14% 5% 2%
-5% 9% 3% 5%
-11% 8% 2% 11%
-14% 11% 8% 14%
0% 0% 1% 0%
-4% 16% 0% 4%
-6% 9% 7% 6%
-18% 3% 9% 18%
1% 24% 10% 1%
-4% 6% 6% 4%
0% 8% 3% 0%
-1% 15% 4% 1%
-6% 14% 1% 6%
-6% 10% 5% 6%
-2% 10% 9% 2%
-9% 8% 1% 9%
-5% 0% 3% 5%
-1% 17% 8% 1%
-9% 2% 0% 9%
-17% 11% 4% 17%
1% 13% 4% 1%
-5% 5% 4% 5%
 -6% 19% 12% 6%
-4% 3% 5% 4%
5% 4% 8% 5%
-7% 20% 1% 7%
-5% 3% 1% 5%
1% 3% 4% 1%
-5% 2% 3% 5%
-11% 13% 1% 11%
-12% 4% 5% 12%
-3% 1% 6% 3%
-15% 3% 6% 15%
-15% 19% 3% 15%
-15% 0% 5% 15%
-4% 7% 11% 4%
-13% 17% 2% 13%
3% 0% 2% 3%
1% 16% 7% 1%
-12% 18% 6% 12%
-9% 30% 2% 9%
-15% 15% 8% 15%
-15% 6% 0% 15%
-11% 1% 2% 11%
-15% 7% 1% 15%
-4% 15% 11% 4%
-4% 1% 8% 4%
-8% 11% 4% 8%
-3% 11% 1% 3%
1% 12% 10% 1%
-2% 0% 2% 2%
-3% 3% 4% 3%
-5% 12% 12% 5%
-9% 11% 2% 9%
-2% 0% 1% 2%
1% 14% 7% 1%
-18% 21% 13% 18%
-9% 2% 0% 9%
-13% 14% 2% 13%
-14% 6% 5% 14%
3% 11% 1% 3%
-10% 8% 7% 10%
-11% 5% 7% 11%
3% 15% 1% 3%
-13% 12% 2% 13%
-9% 19% 6% 9%
-22% 17% 11% 22%
-1% 4% 6% 1%
0% 7% 7% 0%
-14% 19% 3% 14%
 -7% 3% 1% 7%
-15% 2% 8% 15%
-14% 8% 1% 14%
-8% 11% 0% 8%
-14% 5% 2% 14%
0% 5% 8% 0%
-12% 5% 5% 12%
1% 19% 2% 1%
-5% 7% 7% 5%
-7% 14% 2% 7%
-8% 7% 5% 8%
1% 1% 9% 1%
-2% 2% 5% 2%
-5% 2% 1% 5%
2% 10% 8% 2%
-3% 12% 3% 3%
-13% 13% 2% 13%
-19% 6% 6% 19%
3% 22% 1% 3%
-2% 13% 11% 2%
1% 5% 3% 1%
 Demanda Real (3) (4) (5)
(1) (2)
Mes (en miles de Acumulativo Naive
Mov Simple Mov Simple Mov Ponderado
Tn) n=2 n=4 n=2 0.6 y 0.4

1 1,113
2 1,131 1,113 1,113
3 1,039 1,122 1,131 1,122 1,124
4 1,116 1,094 1,039 1,085 1,076
5 1,131 1,100 1,116 1,078 1,100 1,085
6 1,080 1,106 1,131 1,124 1,104 1,125
7 1,171 1,102 1,080 1,106 1,092 1,100
8 1,223 1,112 1,171 1,126 1,125 1,135
9 1,099 1,126 1,223 1,197 1,151 1,202
10 1,185 1,123 1,099 1,161 1,143 1,149
11 1,273 1,129 1,185 1,142 1,170 1,151
12 1,275 1,142 1,273 1,229 1,195 1,238
13 1,275 1,153 1,275 1,274 1,208 1,274
14 1,100 1,162 1,275 1,275 1,252 1,275
15 1,158 1,100 1,188 1,231 1,170

Prom 1157.928571429
Desvest 77.49090694617
CV 0.0669
 (6)
Mov Ponderado (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (1) (2)
n=4 Error Error Error Error Error Error EMPA EMPA
0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1

18 18 1.6% 1.6%
- 83 - 92 - 83 - 85 8.0% 8.9%
22 77 31 40 1.9% 6.9%
1,096 31 15 54 31 46 35 2.8% 1.3%
1,108 - 26 - 51 - 44 - 24 - 45 - 28 2.4% 4.7%
1,098 69 91 66 80 71 73 5.9% 7.8%
1,130 111 52 98 99 88 93 9.1% 4.3%
1,170 - 27 - 124 - 98 - 52 - 103 - 71 2.4% 11.3%
1,149 62 86 24 42 36 36 5.3% 7.3%
1,165 144 88 131 104 122 108 11.3% 6.9%
1,207 133 2 46 80 37 68 10.4% 0.2%
1,239 122 - 1 67 1 36 9.6% 0.0%
1,266 - 62 - 175 - 175 - 152 - 175 - 166 5.7% 15.9%
1,205
559 - 16 102 273 78 185 5.88% 5.92%
(3) (4) (5) (6)
EMPA EMPA EMPA EMPA

Demanda Real (en miles de Tn)

8.0% 8.2%
1,300
2.8% 3.6%
1,250
4.7% 2.8% 4.0% 3.1%
1,200
4.0% 2.2% 4.2% 2.6%
1,150
5.6% 6.8% 6.0% 6.2%
1,100
8.0% 8.1% 7.2% 7.6%
8.9% 4.8% 9.4% 6.4% 1,050

2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 1,000

10.3% 8.1% 9.6% 8.5% 950

3.6% 6.3% 2.9% 5.3% 900

0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 2.8% 850

15.9% 13.8% 15.9% 15.1% 800

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

6.16% 6.16% 6.18% 6.07%

miles de Tn)

10 12 14 16
METODO DE HOLT WINTER: PRONOSTICO.ETS

Total
N Year Qtr Total Real
Semanal
1 1999 1 23,244 1,788
2 1999 2 48,724 3,748
3 1999 3 66,495 5,115
4 1999 4 41,171 3,167
5 2000 1 27,261 2,097
6 2000 2 52,104 4,008
7 2000 3 71,916 5,532
8 2000 4 40,599 3,123
9 2001 1 27,512 2,116
10 2001 2 45,798 3,523
11 2001 3 76,968 5,921
12 2001 4 43,858 3,374
13 2002 1 30,580 2,352
14 2002 2 53,198 4,092
15 2002 3 88,704 6,823
16 2002 4 51,590 3,968
17 2003 1 35,372 2,721
18 2003 2 57,840 4,449
19 2003 3 93,388 7,184
20 2003 4 58,906 4,531
21 2004 1 39,382 3,029
22 2004 2 75,219 5,786
23 2004 3 122,868 9,451
24 2004 4 54,996 4,230
25 2005 1 48,159 4,029 4,029
26 2005 2 6,822 6,822
27 2005 3 10,356 10,356
28 2005 4 5,139 5,139
 F. Estim
METODO DE DECOMPOSICIÓN ( CUANDO HAY TEN 1 0.552
2 1.006
Pronostico = (a + b*t)*F 3 1.559
4 0.883
4.000
Real Real
Total F
N Year Qtr Total Real
Semanal
Promedio temporada Desestaci Desest
onaliz sin Tend
1 1999 1 23,244 1,788 3,455 0.518 3,238 3,140
2 1999 2 48,724 3,748 3,455 1.085 3,726 3,531
3 1999 3 66,495 5,115 3,455 1.481 3,282 2,989
4 1999 4 41,171 3,167 3,455 0.917 3,586 3,195
5 2000 1 27,261 2,097 3,690 0.568 3,797 3,309
6 2000 2 52,104 4,008 3,690 1.086 3,984 3,399
7 2000 3 71,916 5,532 3,690 1.499 3,549 2,866
8 2000 4 40,599 3,123 3,690 0.846 3,536 2,755
9 2001 1 27,512 2,116 3,733 0.567 3,832 2,953
10 2001 2 45,798 3,523 3,733 0.944 3,502 2,526
11 2001 3 76,968 5,921 3,733 1.586 3,799 2,725
12 2001 4 43,858 3,374 3,733 0.904 3,820 2,648
13 2002 1 30,580 2,352 4,309 0.546 4,259 2,990
14 2002 2 53,198 4,092 4,309 0.950 4,068 2,701
15 2002 3 88,704 6,823 4,309 1.583 4,378 2,914
16 2002 4 51,590 3,968 4,309 0.921 4,493 2,931
17 2003 1 35,372 2,721 4,721 0.576 4,927 3,267
18 2003 2 57,840 4,449 4,721 0.942 4,423 2,666
19 2003 3 93,388 7,184 4,721 1.522 4,609 2,754
20 2003 4 58,906 4,531 4,721 0.960 5,130 3,178
21 2004 1 39,382 3,029 5,624 0.539 5,485 3,435
22 2004 2 75,219 5,786 5,624 1.029 5,752 3,604
23 2004 3 122,868 9,451 5,624 1.680 6,064 3,819
24 2004 4 54,996 4,230 5,624 0.752 4,790 2,447
25 2005 1 48,159 5,471 3,022
26 2005 2 5,569 5,602
27 2005 3 5,667 8,832
28 2005 4 5,764 5,091
 Real DesestUnemployment
sin Tend Bank Rate
Prime Loan Real Desestacionaliz
UnemploymentBank
Rate
Prime Loan
Real Deses 1 Real Deses 1
Unemploym 0.336 1 Unemploym0.625319 1
Bank Prime -0.417 -0.958 1 Bank Prime-0.746201 -0.957779 1
Housing St 0.596626 0.427891 -0.529252

Bank Real Bank

Unemploy Prime Real Desestacionaliz
Housing Desestac Unemploy Prime Housing
ment Rate Loan Starts ionaliz ment Rate Loan Starts
7,000
3,238
6,000 3,726
3,282
5,000 3,586
f(x) = 97.6210069389832 x + 3030.94721283859
R² = 0.786024435086002 3,797
4,000 3,984
3,549
3,000
3,536
2,0003.90 9.50 357 3,832 3.90 9.50 357
4.23 8.62 348 3,502 4.23 8.62 348
1,0004.40 7.34 461 3,799 4.40 7.34 461 Real
4.83 6.57 429 3,820 4.83 6.57 429 7,000
- 5.53 5.16 366 4,259 5.53 5.16 366
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
5.70 4.75 369 4,068 5.70 4.75 369 6,000
5.83 4.75 475 4,378 5.83 4.75 475
5.73 4.75 459 4,493 5.73 4.75 459 5,000 f(x) = 97.6210069389832 x
R² = 0.786024435086002
5.87 4.45 403 4,927 5.87 4.45 403
5.83 4.25 375 4,423 5.83 4.25 375 4,000
6.13 4.24 490 4,609 6.13 4.24 490
3,000
6.13 4.00 511 5,130 6.13 4.00 511
5.87 4.00 472 5,485 5.87 4.00 472 2,000
5.67 4.00 425 5,752 5.67 4.00 425
5.57 4.00 540 6,064 5.57 4.00 540 1,000
5.43 4.42 532 4,790 5.43 4.42 532
5.43 4.94 460 -
0 5 10
 Housing Starts

Fire Fire Fire Fire Fire

Valve Valve Valve Valve Valve Total
Z2105 Z3000 Z3000IL Z3004 Z3004IL

122 77 1 20 50 270
139 240 - 144 67 590
Real Desestacionaliz 54 138 3 25 32 252
000 78 275 36 59 49 497
18 301 (35) 48 132 464
000 224 133 - 35 103 495
138 175 - 15 42 370
000 f(x) = 97.6210069389832 x + 3030.94721283859 193 251 10 50 63 557
R² = 0.786024435086002
124 213 2 32 170 541
000 112 150 3 46 40 351
25 64 139 26 77 331
000
37 57 3 18 22 137
000 79 108 49 23 26 285
71 105 52 26 90 344
000 68 151 2 62 77 360
54 114 84 44 86 382
- 85 199 140 66 90 580
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 TOTAL
POR
MODELO
Periodo (t) Llegadas x(t) Suavizacion Exponencial Alfa=0.25 MAPE F (t) a b
0
1 876 939 7% 946 939 6.58
2 1205 923 23% 932 927 4.41
3 700 994 42% 1006 999 6.96
4 893 920 3% 930 929 1.75
5 1363 913 33% 922 921 0.94
6 725 1026 41% 1038 1032 6.27
7 958 951 1% 960 959 1.12
8 1262 952 25% 960 959 0.87
9 695 1030 48% 1040 1036 4.47
10 885 946 7% 952 953 -0.72
11 1340 931 31% 934 936 -1.42
12 747 1033 38% 1040 1036 3.93
13 877 962 10% 966 966 -0.51
14 1428 940 34% 942 943 -1.51
15 869 1062 22% 1069 1064 4.86
16 1021 1014 1% 1019 1018 1.41
17 1325 1016 23% 1021 1020 1.15
18 853 1093 28% 1101 1097 4.73
19 947 1033 9% 1039 1039 0.69
20 1400 1012 28% 1015 1016 -0.60
21 876 1109 27% 1116 1112 4.33
22 1050 1056 1055 0.47
22.9%

Pron 8= 1050.717
MAPE 2 Alfa 0.25 Beta 0.05 Pi 0.8

8% Llegadas x(t)
23%
1600
44%
4% 1400
32% 1200
43%
0% 1000
24% 800
50%
600
8%
30% 400
39% 200
10%
0
34% 0 5 10 15
23%
0% Suavización Exponencial SIMPLE Nivel
23%
29% Pronostico t = Alfa* Real t-1) + (1- Alfa)*Pron (t-1)
10%
27% Holt o Brown Nivel Tendencia
27%
Pronostico t = at+bt a b
23.3%
at= Alfa* Real t-1) + (1- Alfa)*( a t-1 + b t-1)

bt= Beta * (a t - a t-1)+ (1- Beta)* b t-1

Holt o Brown DAMPED Amortiguado Nivel Tendencia Pi

Pronostico t = at+bt a b

at= Alfa* Real t-1) + (1- Alfa)*( a t-1 + b t-1 * Pi)

bt= Beta * (a t - a t-1)+ (1- Beta)* b t-1 * Pi

Llegadas x(t) Chart Title
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
15 20 25 0 5 10 15
Chart Title

10 15 20 25
CUANTITATIVOS CUALITATIVOS

SERIES DE TIEMPO DE JUICIO

PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE JUICIO DE EJECUTIVOS EXPERTOS
PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO METODO DELPHI
SUAVIZACIONE EXPONENCIAL FUERZA DE VENTAS

CAUSALES / RELACIONALES EXPERIMENTALES

METODO ECONOMETRICOS ENCUESTAS A LOS CLIENTES
REGRESION LINEAL FOCUS GROUP
TESTEOS

DEPENDE DEL CICLO DE VIDA DEL PRODUCTO-EMPRESA

DEPENDE DE LA POSICIÓN EN LA MATRIZ ANSOFF

PRODUCTO
ACTUAL NUEVO
MERCADO ACTUAL PENETRACIÓN DESARROLLO DE NUEVOS PR
SERIES DE TIEMPO ANALOGIA HISTORICA
CAUSALES
NUEVO DESARROLLO DE NUEVOS DIVERSIFICACIÓN
MERCADOS
EXPERIMENTALES DE JUICIO
 100% CUALITATIVOS MIX 100% CUANTITATIVOS MIX
INTRODUCCION CRECIMIENTO MADUREZ DECLIVE

ESARROLLO DE NUEVOS PRODUCTOS

NALOGIA HISTORICA

IVERSIFICACIÓN
 COMPONENTE SISTEMICO COMPONENTE ALEATORIO
PRONOSTICO= Nivel Tendencia Estacionalidad ERROR
N T Fe E

Aditivos Pron= N + T + Fe +
MultiplicativoPron= N * T * Fe +
Mixtos Pron= (N + T*t) * Fe +

SERIES DE TIEMPO

Ingenuo
Acumulativos Datos Historicos
Movil Simple
Movil Ponderado

Suavizacion Simple Alfa

Corrector del Nivel
Metodo de Brown o Holt Alfa Beta
Corrector de Tendencia
Metodo de Holt Damped Alfa Beta
Corrector de Tendencia
Metodo de Holt Winter Alfa Beta Ganma
Corrector de Estacionalida

CAUSALES

Regresión Lineal
Pronostico = F(a, b, c, …..x)
Modelos Econometricos
OMPONENTE ALEATORIO

E
E
E

Pornisticar cuanto menos 3 METODOS

Pi
Amortiguador de la Tendencia
Pi
Amortiguador de la Tendencia