Exam 18-19
Exam 18-19
Exam 18-19
ANOVA
Source of VariationSS df MS F P-value F crit
Rows 1641050 5 328210 97.05483 2.535E-13 2.71089 H0: il n'y a pas de saison
Columns 1279385 4 319846.2 94.58158 1.069E-12 2.866081 H0: il n'y a pas de tendance
Error 67633.93 20 3381.697
Total 2988069 29
a pas de saison P-value<0.05, on rejet H0,donc on a une serie saisonnier
a pas de tendance P-value<0.05, on rejet H0,donc on a une serie presentant un tendance
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985904
R Square 0.972006
Adjusted R 0.962675
Standard E 10.15104
Observatio 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 10733.77 10733.77 104.1673 0.002005
Residual 3 309.1306 103.0435
Total 4 11042.9
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 20.85957 21.36934 0.976145 0.400984 -47.14722 88.86636 -47.14722 88.86636
X Variable 0.224363 0.021983 10.20624 0.002005 0.154403 0.294322 0.154403 0.294322
H0:a=0
P-value<0.05, on rejet H0, donc on a un schema multiplicatif
SEMAINE 1 SEMAINE 2 SEMAINE 3 SEMAINE 4 SEMAINE 5 Buys-Ballot
JOUR 1 430 560 660 770 885 Moyenne
JOUR 2 660 833 1001 1104 1280 646.5
JOUR 3 775 959 1154 1260 1461 812.166666667
JOUR 4 915 1152 1390 1500 1752 971.166666667
JOUR 5 614 762 906 1000 1160 1077.33333333
JOUR 6 485 607 716 830 916 1242.33333333
correlation
1
0.62771219 SCVS(t)=a*t+b
0.13568874 a
L'existence d'un fort coefficient pour tous
-0.19159751 les deplacements multiples de 6 montre b
0.09076851 donc l'existence d'un cycle de longueur 6.
0.59404294
0.98952367 31
0.54106971 32
-0.03567346 33
-0.41007321 34
-0.04905741 35
0.53788095 36
0.97918577
2500
0.45577237
-0.17997666
-0.60287273 2000
-0.18466715
0.51092031
1500
0.98995001
0.37292624
-0.34480191 1000
-0.80007479
-0.32223794
500
0.4892563
0.99657988
0.16307268 0
0 5 10 15
-0.69009086
-0.9989544
-1
SEMAINE 2 SEMAINE 3 SEMAINE 4 SEMAINE 5 Median Med.aj
0.74924741 0.72593951 0.74504112 0.7497882 0.747144 0.747717
1.06863374 1.06376196 1.05092813 1.05378705 1.058775 1.059587
1.1957606 1.19948029 1.17995942 1.18283632 1.189298 1.190211
1.40402194 1.41788507 1.3800506 1.398005 1.399077
0.90409334 0.90773983 0.899955 0.902024 0.902716
0.69523719 0.70507139 0.72642404 0.700154 0.700691
Test 5.995401 6c
CVS(t)=a*t+b
24.4389207
572.015124
PB PS
1329.62167 994.181314
1354.06059 1434.74466
1378.49951 1640.70506
1402.93843 1962.81942
1427.37735 1288.51661
1451.81627 1017.2752
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40