Exam 18-19

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Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication

SUMMARY Count Sum Average Variance


JOUR 1 5 3305 661 31405
JOUR 2 5 4878 975.6 57432.3
JOUR 3 5 5609 1121.8 70491.7
JOUR 4 5 6709 1341.8 103449.2
JOUR 5 5 4442 888.4 44450.8
JOUR 6 5 3554 710.8 29525.7

SEMAINE 1 6 3879 646.5 32559.5


SEMAINE 2 6 4873 812.1667 49135.77
SEMAINE 3 6 5827 971.1667 75184.17
SEMAINE 4 6 6464 1077.333 74866.67
SEMAINE 5 6 7454 1242.333 109990.7

ANOVA
Source of VariationSS df MS F P-value F crit
Rows 1641050 5 328210 97.05483 2.535E-13 2.71089 H0: il n'y a pas de saison
Columns 1279385 4 319846.2 94.58158 1.069E-12 2.866081 H0: il n'y a pas de tendance
Error 67633.93 20 3381.697

Total 2988069 29
a pas de saison P-value<0.05, on rejet H0,donc on a une serie saisonnier
a pas de tendance P-value<0.05, on rejet H0,donc on a une serie presentant un tendance
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985904
R Square 0.972006
Adjusted R 0.962675
Standard E 10.15104
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 10733.77 10733.77 104.1673 0.002005
Residual 3 309.1306 103.0435
Total 4 11042.9

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 20.85957 21.36934 0.976145 0.400984 -47.14722 88.86636 -47.14722 88.86636
X Variable 0.224363 0.021983 10.20624 0.002005 0.154403 0.294322 0.154403 0.294322
H0:a=0
P-value<0.05, on rejet H0, donc on a un schema multiplicatif
SEMAINE 1 SEMAINE 2 SEMAINE 3 SEMAINE 4 SEMAINE 5 Buys-Ballot
JOUR 1 430 560 660 770 885 Moyenne
JOUR 2 660 833 1001 1104 1280 646.5
JOUR 3 775 959 1154 1260 1461 812.166666667
JOUR 4 915 1152 1390 1500 1752 971.166666667
JOUR 5 614 762 906 1000 1160 1077.33333333
JOUR 6 485 607 716 830 916 1242.33333333

t X(t) T(t) S(t) Med.s(t) SCVS(t) deplacements


1 430 0.74771744 575.083547 0
2 660 1.05958675 622.884346 1
3 775 1.19021084 651.145135 2
4 915 657.333333 1.39198783 1.39907738 654.002427 3
5 614 682.583333 0.89952387 0.90271617 680.169497 4
6 485 712.333333 0.68086102 0.70069142 692.173454 5
7 560 747.416667 0.74924741 0.74771744 748.946015 6
8 833 779.5 1.06863374 1.05958675 786.155546 7
9 959 802 1.1957606 1.19021084 805.739593 8
10 1152 820.5 1.40402194 1.39907738 823.399777 9
11 762 842.833333 0.90409334 0.90271617 844.119147 10
12 607 873.083333 0.69523719 0.70069142 866.287188 11
13 660 909.166667 0.72593951 0.74771744 882.686375 12
14 1001 941 1.06376196 1.05958675 944.707925 13
15 1154 962.083333 1.19948029 1.19021084 969.57611 14
16 1390 980.333333 1.41788507 1.39907738 993.511884 15
17 906 998.083333 0.90773983 0.90271617 1003.63773 16
18 716 1015.5 0.70507139 0.70069142 1021.84782 17
19 770 1033.5 0.74504112 0.74771744 1029.80077 18
20 1104 1050.5 1.05092813 1.05958675 1041.91563 19
21 1260 1067.83333 1.17995942 1.19021084 1058.63596 20
22 1500 1086.91667 1.3800506 1.39907738 1072.13513 21
23 1000 1111.16667 0.899955 0.90271617 1107.76791 22
24 830 1142.58333 0.72642404 0.70069142 1184.54426 23
25 885 1180.33333 0.7497882 0.74771744 1183.60218 24
26 1280 1214.66667 1.05378705 1.05958675 1208.01813 25
27 1461 1235.16667 1.18283632 1.19021084 1227.5136 26
28 1752 1.39907738 1252.25383 27
29 1160 0.90271617 1285.01078 28
30 916 0.70069142 1307.28017
SEMAINE 1
Ecart Ecart=moyenne*a+b JOUR 1
164.720723 JOUR 2
202.352347 JOUR 3
250.306756 JOUR 4 1.39198783
249.777679 JOUR 5 0.89952387
302.752191 JOUR 6 0.68086102

correlation
1
0.62771219 SCVS(t)=a*t+b
0.13568874 a
L'existence d'un fort coefficient pour tous
-0.19159751 les deplacements multiples de 6 montre b
0.09076851 donc l'existence d'un cycle de longueur 6.
0.59404294
0.98952367 31
0.54106971 32
-0.03567346 33
-0.41007321 34
-0.04905741 35
0.53788095 36
0.97918577
2500
0.45577237
-0.17997666
-0.60287273 2000
-0.18466715
0.51092031
1500
0.98995001
0.37292624
-0.34480191 1000
-0.80007479
-0.32223794
500
0.4892563
0.99657988
0.16307268 0
0 5 10 15
-0.69009086
-0.9989544
-1
SEMAINE 2 SEMAINE 3 SEMAINE 4 SEMAINE 5 Median Med.aj
0.74924741 0.72593951 0.74504112 0.7497882 0.747144 0.747717
1.06863374 1.06376196 1.05092813 1.05378705 1.058775 1.059587
1.1957606 1.19948029 1.17995942 1.18283632 1.189298 1.190211
1.40402194 1.41788507 1.3800506 1.398005 1.399077
0.90409334 0.90773983 0.899955 0.902024 0.902716
0.69523719 0.70507139 0.72642404 0.700154 0.700691
Test 5.995401 6c

CVS(t)=a*t+b
24.4389207
572.015124

PB PS
1329.62167 994.181314
1354.06059 1434.74466
1378.49951 1640.70506
1402.93843 1962.81942
1427.37735 1288.51661
1451.81627 1017.2752

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

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