20220325

! Read Iran COVID-19 epidemic models situation report No 50 - 2022-03-25 here

Study update dates in uptake 20220325

DELP 20220325, IHME 20220222, IMPE 20220120, SRIV 20220325

Note that the latest available IMPE model update reflects their predictions as of 2022-01-20, more than two months old now.

Summary 20220325:

The New Year ceremonies and travels increase number of contacts and probability of transmission and spread the virus across the country. These factors are not fully included in the models. As such, a new surge could be expected in Iran about April.

Considerable proportions of the COVID-19 cases and deaths that will occur in the new-coming 7th wave can be prevented by Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and vaccination.

Premature release of mandates for using masks and physical distancing serves the political and economic purposes of the governments, not the public health and survival needs of the populations.

People will die. Do something now.

Strengths and weakness of the international and periodically update COVID-19 pandemic models are discussed here.