Puruesh Chaudhary
Education and Qualification
She has a professional master’s degree in International Negotiation and Policymaking from Institut De Hautes Études Internationales Et Du Développement, Geneva. Chaudhary is a Harvard University, Singularity University Alumni; and of the National Defence University in Pakistan.
Experience
Puruesh Chaudhary is a futures researcher and strategic narrative professional.
Her work mostly involves futures research, knowledge-collaborations and content intelligence within the framework of human security. She has worked with multilateral donors and aid agencies, news organizations and multinationals in advancing development efforts in Pakistan. Chaudhary is invited to various international and domestic forums to speak on futures, storytelling and human security.
Achievements and Awards
Featured amongst the World’s top female futurists. She is a Distinguished Fellow 2015 at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). The Center of Internet Media Ethics’ has honored her to serve as its Ambassador to Pakistan campaigning for quality journalism in the country; she now sits on CIME’s Board of Advisors. She is a Mentor for the UN-Habitat Youth Fund Programme. She is on the Editorial Board for the Journal of Future Robot Life. She is a Member Network of Global Future Councils of the World Economic Forum on the Fourth Industrial Revolution. She has also been recognized as a Global Shaper by the World Economic Forum in 2011 and has been nominated to the Forum’s Expert Network on Global Agenda. Chaudhary is an ASPEN Alumni, a member and an advisor to the World Futures Society and is on the Planning Committee of the Millennium-Project (Global Futures Studies and Research), she is the Founding Member of the Plurality University Network; has created the Asia Futures Network and is spearheading the Africa Knowledge Council, to bridge the understanding between the peoples of Pakistan and Africa.
Books and Publications
She has produced foresight research compilation on Pakistan State of Future Index (‘Anticipating 2027’/’The Future of Possibilities 2029’) a single measure that indicates that the country is relatively improving over the next 10 years; The Future of Pakistan up to 2060 building on four possible scenarios; is a published co-author for ‘The Future of Business’ a critical insight on rapidly changing world; The Big Idea: Next Generation of Leadership in Pakistan needs a ‘New-Think’ analytical overview of foresight decision-making and strategic narratives in country; developed the Realtime Delphi tool, an efficient and a cost-effective system to generate expert judgements a decision support system.
Current Designation and Portfolios She is the Founder and President of AGAHI, a non-governmental organization, which works extensively on creating shared spaces for interactive learning, collaborative thinking and knowledge sharing. Pakistan Foresight Initiative, a project of AGAHI aims to improve policymaking and strategic narratives on key priority areas of the Foresight Lab; facilitative platform – a thinkware that is engaging legislators, strategists, academicians and the community for developing shared understanding for effective implementation of decisions. Additionally, Chaudhary is the cofounder of Media Development Trust, Director at Mishal Pakistan and a Founding Director for the Asia Institute of Public Policy and Co-founder of Africa Knowledge Council.
Phone: +923009491312
She has a professional master’s degree in International Negotiation and Policymaking from Institut De Hautes Études Internationales Et Du Développement, Geneva. Chaudhary is a Harvard University, Singularity University Alumni; and of the National Defence University in Pakistan.
Experience
Puruesh Chaudhary is a futures researcher and strategic narrative professional.
Her work mostly involves futures research, knowledge-collaborations and content intelligence within the framework of human security. She has worked with multilateral donors and aid agencies, news organizations and multinationals in advancing development efforts in Pakistan. Chaudhary is invited to various international and domestic forums to speak on futures, storytelling and human security.
Achievements and Awards
Featured amongst the World’s top female futurists. She is a Distinguished Fellow 2015 at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). The Center of Internet Media Ethics’ has honored her to serve as its Ambassador to Pakistan campaigning for quality journalism in the country; she now sits on CIME’s Board of Advisors. She is a Mentor for the UN-Habitat Youth Fund Programme. She is on the Editorial Board for the Journal of Future Robot Life. She is a Member Network of Global Future Councils of the World Economic Forum on the Fourth Industrial Revolution. She has also been recognized as a Global Shaper by the World Economic Forum in 2011 and has been nominated to the Forum’s Expert Network on Global Agenda. Chaudhary is an ASPEN Alumni, a member and an advisor to the World Futures Society and is on the Planning Committee of the Millennium-Project (Global Futures Studies and Research), she is the Founding Member of the Plurality University Network; has created the Asia Futures Network and is spearheading the Africa Knowledge Council, to bridge the understanding between the peoples of Pakistan and Africa.
Books and Publications
She has produced foresight research compilation on Pakistan State of Future Index (‘Anticipating 2027’/’The Future of Possibilities 2029’) a single measure that indicates that the country is relatively improving over the next 10 years; The Future of Pakistan up to 2060 building on four possible scenarios; is a published co-author for ‘The Future of Business’ a critical insight on rapidly changing world; The Big Idea: Next Generation of Leadership in Pakistan needs a ‘New-Think’ analytical overview of foresight decision-making and strategic narratives in country; developed the Realtime Delphi tool, an efficient and a cost-effective system to generate expert judgements a decision support system.
Current Designation and Portfolios She is the Founder and President of AGAHI, a non-governmental organization, which works extensively on creating shared spaces for interactive learning, collaborative thinking and knowledge sharing. Pakistan Foresight Initiative, a project of AGAHI aims to improve policymaking and strategic narratives on key priority areas of the Foresight Lab; facilitative platform – a thinkware that is engaging legislators, strategists, academicians and the community for developing shared understanding for effective implementation of decisions. Additionally, Chaudhary is the cofounder of Media Development Trust, Director at Mishal Pakistan and a Founding Director for the Asia Institute of Public Policy and Co-founder of Africa Knowledge Council.
Phone: +923009491312
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Papers by Puruesh Chaudhary
Imagining a future is often problematic. Historically Pakistan has been printing problems, has always had temporary solutions, used tactical measures while approaching or fixing a challenge. One can see the serious lack of imagination in narratives on matters related to a wide range of policy spectrums. The worldview of Pakistan over the last decade has become deeply skewed and myopic. With a median age of 22, 63% of youth in Pakistan is under the age of 29 years, making Pakistan as one of the youngest nations in the world. UN projects the population to cross 300 million by 2050. Today, these projected figures among many others are enough to generate anxiety amongst the political leadership; and as the Brooking Institute put it, here (Pakistan) is a yawning gap between aspiration and actual performance. The potential is not fully leveraged in a meaningful 21st century way. In the next couple of years Pakistan could possibly have an army of unemployed youth. There are going to be less jobs in the future. There is no mathematical equation that can provide jobs, opportunities, and livelihood creation, we see no absolute effort by the government creating employment. In the near future, the youth bulge, the country greatly prides over may either become a blessing or a curse. A cynical set of younger people are seen mostly as an exploitative opportunity by hostile anti-state entities, who can genuinely disrupt the future of the country. Additionally, what is worse is that the youth demographic is not seen in mainstream policy decision-making. If the overriding perception of a decision-making construct is flawed then incremental steps in isolation do not contribute towards holistic policy-thinking. Expecting the young people to take ownership of the country’s future in an environment where there is a inherent tradition in relying on the older leadership in the context of national security paradigm is an incoherent instrument to create a force of young leaders. A mechanism to capture ideas and imagination is greatly missing from the policy discourse.
In The Future of Pakistan 2060, I have explored the past, understood plausible, probable and possible futures. The participants engaged for this paper provided assessment of the likelihood, importance and the level of readiness of Pakistan 2060. The fear that Pakistan will continue to grow old while still remaining a poor country was a shared insight. The writ of the state in the next 30 years may also diminish if acts of violent extremism and terrorism are not minimized. The country has had continuous deterioration of the economic sector; having a reverse affect on the social indicators for balanced growth; and while despite being a middle-income country - Pakistan still remains in the list of one of the least developed nations. Several economists are of the view that the country needs a critical middle class to build the country’s intellectual resource and institutional capacity. A game changer for Pakistan will be exorbitant investment in human capital resource. Many have hoped that the country should be seen for its freedom for press and a country with a legal jurisdiction, which provides free political and criminal justice. However, in many places in Pakistan alternate justice system such as Jirga can become a bane for the state functionaries. Governance-related challenges post 18th Amendment, fiscal deficiency, population explosion, energy and water crisis, dissident movements – while all of this and much more of such developments look grim, Pakistan confronts the possibility of discord amongst the youth. An overwhelming majority continues to receive poor quality education. The three parallel education systems create divergent world visions that are difficult to reconcile. Different socio-economic strata are increasingly isolated from each other and continue to harbor disdain and antipathy for each other. Society is increasing polarized. Pakistan’s growth model has consistently benefited the rich more than the poor. A tipping point for the country, will be an army of unemployed youth, widening fiscal gap, governance failures, and external threats. Through its findings it can easily be determined that the key stakeholders in decision-making process are void of any foresight thinking, an approach that does not follow deterministic set of rules for looking at alternatives rather uses the heterodox approach. Although, by applying this reductionist approach to the ‘Future of Pakistan up to 2060’ findings one can safely acknowledge that the leadership lacks foresight competence in the process of decision-making, this is extrapolated from informal interviews, conference gatherings, and through a narrative enquiry on the worldview of the country.
The purpose of this research is to revisit assumptions, explore perceptions, elaborate future growth opportunities and risks; and what it means to generate multiple possibilities, suggesting a plausible fifth scenario* - based on the earlier study if we use ‘youth’ as an entry point, then what or which narrative of Pakistan will inspire the next generation and how will the policymakers enable a conducive environment for strengthening the required strategic narrative, thus creating a public dialogue around challenges and opportunities which can be derived from engaging the young people.
It is an essential study to gauge how the youth sees the future of Pakistan, what role do or don’t they see for themselves in that future and factors which are influencing their behaviors and decisions?
The fifth scenario: The next big idea. Prior foresight research in to the topic ‘Future of Pakistan up to 2060’ established four scenarios : i) low citizen empowerment, regional integration ii) high citizen empowerment, regional integration iii) high citizen empowerment, regional fragmentation iv) low citizen empowerment, regional fragmentation – along with drivers of change, plausible scenarios and strategic narratives. The fifth will explore all four and ideate over transformational prospects through the lens of young Pakistanis falling between an age bracket of 18-35 year old building a moment where they can encapsulate significant regional developments such as: Iran Deal, Exclusive Economic Zone, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Foresight research studies are conducted to facilitate the process of institutionalized decisions amongst the leadership corridors as an ongoing deliberative practice looking at both medium and long-term implications of a policy action. This improves learning faculty and increases the quality of policy inputs and strategic outcomes – ultimately reducing the chances of policy failures. United Kingdom, United States of America, Japan, Finland, Singapore, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Peru, China several other countries have adopted the foresight approach at a Government-level. Meanwhile, organizations such as Shell, National Intelligence Council, World Economic Forum among many others are using foresight tools and methodologies building on insights by developing plausible scenarios, thinking through global/regional dynamics, understanding risks and opportunities, and bringing out insights on what useful intervention points might look like. A constant systematic process of anticipating, influencing strategic foresight does not follow deterministic set of rules, however it uses systematic technique of looking at alternatives. Game theory is usually used as one of the input for foresight thinking, policy experts and strategists in countries using this futures approach do not rely on it entirely.
Imagining a future is often problematic. Historically Pakistan has been printing problems, has always had temporary solutions, used tactical measures while approaching or fixing a challenge. One can see the serious lack of imagination in narratives on matters related to a wide range of policy spectrums. The worldview of Pakistan over the last decade has become deeply skewed and myopic. With a median age of 22, 63% of youth in Pakistan is under the age of 29 years, making Pakistan as one of the youngest nations in the world. UN projects the population to cross 300 million by 2050. Today, these projected figures among many others are enough to generate anxiety amongst the political leadership; and as the Brooking Institute put it, here (Pakistan) is a yawning gap between aspiration and actual performance. The potential is not fully leveraged in a meaningful 21st century way. In the next couple of years Pakistan could possibly have an army of unemployed youth. There are going to be less jobs in the future. There is no mathematical equation that can provide jobs, opportunities, and livelihood creation, we see no absolute effort by the government creating employment. In the near future, the youth bulge, the country greatly prides over may either become a blessing or a curse. A cynical set of younger people are seen mostly as an exploitative opportunity by hostile anti-state entities, who can genuinely disrupt the future of the country. Additionally, what is worse is that the youth demographic is not seen in mainstream policy decision-making. If the overriding perception of a decision-making construct is flawed then incremental steps in isolation do not contribute towards holistic policy-thinking. Expecting the young people to take ownership of the country’s future in an environment where there is a inherent tradition in relying on the older leadership in the context of national security paradigm is an incoherent instrument to create a force of young leaders. A mechanism to capture ideas and imagination is greatly missing from the policy discourse.
In The Future of Pakistan 2060, I have explored the past, understood plausible, probable and possible futures. The participants engaged for this paper provided assessment of the likelihood, importance and the level of readiness of Pakistan 2060. The fear that Pakistan will continue to grow old while still remaining a poor country was a shared insight. The writ of the state in the next 30 years may also diminish if acts of violent extremism and terrorism are not minimized. The country has had continuous deterioration of the economic sector; having a reverse affect on the social indicators for balanced growth; and while despite being a middle-income country - Pakistan still remains in the list of one of the least developed nations. Several economists are of the view that the country needs a critical middle class to build the country’s intellectual resource and institutional capacity. A game changer for Pakistan will be exorbitant investment in human capital resource. Many have hoped that the country should be seen for its freedom for press and a country with a legal jurisdiction, which provides free political and criminal justice. However, in many places in Pakistan alternate justice system such as Jirga can become a bane for the state functionaries. Governance-related challenges post 18th Amendment, fiscal deficiency, population explosion, energy and water crisis, dissident movements – while all of this and much more of such developments look grim, Pakistan confronts the possibility of discord amongst the youth. An overwhelming majority continues to receive poor quality education. The three parallel education systems create divergent world visions that are difficult to reconcile. Different socio-economic strata are increasingly isolated from each other and continue to harbor disdain and antipathy for each other. Society is increasing polarized. Pakistan’s growth model has consistently benefited the rich more than the poor. A tipping point for the country, will be an army of unemployed youth, widening fiscal gap, governance failures, and external threats. Through its findings it can easily be determined that the key stakeholders in decision-making process are void of any foresight thinking, an approach that does not follow deterministic set of rules for looking at alternatives rather uses the heterodox approach. Although, by applying this reductionist approach to the ‘Future of Pakistan up to 2060’ findings one can safely acknowledge that the leadership lacks foresight competence in the process of decision-making, this is extrapolated from informal interviews, conference gatherings, and through a narrative enquiry on the worldview of the country.
The purpose of this research is to revisit assumptions, explore perceptions, elaborate future growth opportunities and risks; and what it means to generate multiple possibilities, suggesting a plausible fifth scenario* - based on the earlier study if we use ‘youth’ as an entry point, then what or which narrative of Pakistan will inspire the next generation and how will the policymakers enable a conducive environment for strengthening the required strategic narrative, thus creating a public dialogue around challenges and opportunities which can be derived from engaging the young people.
It is an essential study to gauge how the youth sees the future of Pakistan, what role do or don’t they see for themselves in that future and factors which are influencing their behaviors and decisions?
The fifth scenario: The next big idea. Prior foresight research in to the topic ‘Future of Pakistan up to 2060’ established four scenarios : i) low citizen empowerment, regional integration ii) high citizen empowerment, regional integration iii) high citizen empowerment, regional fragmentation iv) low citizen empowerment, regional fragmentation – along with drivers of change, plausible scenarios and strategic narratives. The fifth will explore all four and ideate over transformational prospects through the lens of young Pakistanis falling between an age bracket of 18-35 year old building a moment where they can encapsulate significant regional developments such as: Iran Deal, Exclusive Economic Zone, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Foresight research studies are conducted to facilitate the process of institutionalized decisions amongst the leadership corridors as an ongoing deliberative practice looking at both medium and long-term implications of a policy action. This improves learning faculty and increases the quality of policy inputs and strategic outcomes – ultimately reducing the chances of policy failures. United Kingdom, United States of America, Japan, Finland, Singapore, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Peru, China several other countries have adopted the foresight approach at a Government-level. Meanwhile, organizations such as Shell, National Intelligence Council, World Economic Forum among many others are using foresight tools and methodologies building on insights by developing plausible scenarios, thinking through global/regional dynamics, understanding risks and opportunities, and bringing out insights on what useful intervention points might look like. A constant systematic process of anticipating, influencing strategic foresight does not follow deterministic set of rules, however it uses systematic technique of looking at alternatives. Game theory is usually used as one of the input for foresight thinking, policy experts and strategists in countries using this futures approach do not rely on it entirely.