Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp... more Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All th...
In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsec... more In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsector within the agricultural sector of a country. Entry requires a cash crop price that is substantially above the price of the food crop already being produced within the country. Entry of CF could cause 'vanishing' of the food-crop sector. We employ a variant of 3×3 mixed Specific Factor-Heckscher Ohlin general equilibrium model of production and trade where introduction of a new policy may lead to the emergence of a new cash-crop sector resulting in finite changes where we show the possibilities of sectoral diversification with combinations of contract farming vis-à-vis traditional agriculture under some plausible conditions. Such ramifications could (a) increase GDP; (b) give rise to adverse distributional consequences for labour, and land-owner; (c) reduce domestic production of food and increase food import and hence, (d) aggravate food insecurity. Thus, CF might imply a tra...
In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, se... more In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of the dynamic GTAP model. 0.63% Hicks-Neutral technical progress in forestry sector (logging) in source regions has differential impacts on productivity of the logging-user sectors. This is ascribed to the differential rates of induced technology transmission via traded intermediates. Destination regions' ability to utilize new technology depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS). Together with trade flows, these two factors determine the recipient's success in assimilating foreign technology. Sectors intensive in logging like wood products, paper products, publishing register higher productivity growth. Differences in productivity improvements depend on the differentials in the magnitude of technology capture. 1. Introduction In the recent past, the advent of biotechnological innovations and its potential impact on s...
Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-es... more Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-established in the economics literature. The issues of creation of technology, its diffusion and actual adoption have been discussed on both theoretical and empirical planes. Effective assimilation of advanced technologies hinges on the 'Absorptive Capacity' and the 'Structural Congruence' between source vis-à-vis the destinations; role of public policies for actual implementation of these new ideas is extremely crucial. This paper offers a synoptic overview of current research and sketch a possible extension of the analytical framework on an operationally feasible plane within the Computable General Equilibrium framework. The survey highlights that analysis of the issue of technology-induced growth in a knowledge-based society must further the analysis by highlighting the role of factors for capturing the benefits. It has been identified that the factors propelling the acq...
Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the de... more Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the demand for and supply of forest products in the U.S. Meanwhile, more innovations are introduced into the U.S. forestry sectors to meet the growing demands for forest products. Since the U.S. is the largest producer and consumer of forest products in the world, these changes are expected to have significant implications for forestry sectors across the world. This study aims at (1) estimating the impacts of forest products trade liberalization on the U.S. forestry sectors; (2) examining the effect of technological progress in the U.S. forestry production relative to the rest of the world. A multi-regional multisectoral applied global general equilibrium model is employed to achieve the goal. Results of the study have implications for better production and marketing decisions as well as policy prescriptions related to sustainable forest management in the U.S.
The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project'... more The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project's [GTAP] database provides us with the splits of total labor payments into skilled and unskilled labor-presupposing substitution possibilities between them. Given the skilled labor payment shares of the GTAP database, we offer an ex post rationalization within a production-theoretic framework. This relies on inter-regional covariation in the GTAP shares and in measures of educational attainment. Adoption of a suitable nesting of skilled-unskilled labor in GTAP's production function enables us to derive a 'reasonable' value for the (implicit) substitution elasticity between skilled-unskilled labors.
Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp... more Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All th...
In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsec... more In this paper, we analyse the entry of a cash crop producing foreign Contract Farming (CF) subsector within the agricultural sector of a country. Entry requires a cash crop price that is substantially above the price of the food crop already being produced within the country. Entry of CF could cause 'vanishing' of the food-crop sector. We employ a variant of 3×3 mixed Specific Factor-Heckscher Ohlin general equilibrium model of production and trade where introduction of a new policy may lead to the emergence of a new cash-crop sector resulting in finite changes where we show the possibilities of sectoral diversification with combinations of contract farming vis-à-vis traditional agriculture under some plausible conditions. Such ramifications could (a) increase GDP; (b) give rise to adverse distributional consequences for labour, and land-owner; (c) reduce domestic production of food and increase food import and hence, (d) aggravate food insecurity. Thus, CF might imply a tra...
In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, se... more In this paper, we consider technology transfers embodied in trade flows within a seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of the dynamic GTAP model. 0.63% Hicks-Neutral technical progress in forestry sector (logging) in source regions has differential impacts on productivity of the logging-user sectors. This is ascribed to the differential rates of induced technology transmission via traded intermediates. Destination regions' ability to utilize new technology depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS). Together with trade flows, these two factors determine the recipient's success in assimilating foreign technology. Sectors intensive in logging like wood products, paper products, publishing register higher productivity growth. Differences in productivity improvements depend on the differentials in the magnitude of technology capture. 1. Introduction In the recent past, the advent of biotechnological innovations and its potential impact on s...
Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-es... more Inextricable links between international trade, growth and role of knowledge-creation are well-established in the economics literature. The issues of creation of technology, its diffusion and actual adoption have been discussed on both theoretical and empirical planes. Effective assimilation of advanced technologies hinges on the 'Absorptive Capacity' and the 'Structural Congruence' between source vis-à-vis the destinations; role of public policies for actual implementation of these new ideas is extremely crucial. This paper offers a synoptic overview of current research and sketch a possible extension of the analytical framework on an operationally feasible plane within the Computable General Equilibrium framework. The survey highlights that analysis of the issue of technology-induced growth in a knowledge-based society must further the analysis by highlighting the role of factors for capturing the benefits. It has been identified that the factors propelling the acq...
Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the de... more Increased trade liberalization and globalization of financial markets are influencing both the demand for and supply of forest products in the U.S. Meanwhile, more innovations are introduced into the U.S. forestry sectors to meet the growing demands for forest products. Since the U.S. is the largest producer and consumer of forest products in the world, these changes are expected to have significant implications for forestry sectors across the world. This study aims at (1) estimating the impacts of forest products trade liberalization on the U.S. forestry sectors; (2) examining the effect of technological progress in the U.S. forestry production relative to the rest of the world. A multi-regional multisectoral applied global general equilibrium model is employed to achieve the goal. Results of the study have implications for better production and marketing decisions as well as policy prescriptions related to sustainable forest management in the U.S.
The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project'... more The 45 region ´ 50 commodity ´ 5 primary factor version of the Global Trade Analysis Project's [GTAP] database provides us with the splits of total labor payments into skilled and unskilled labor-presupposing substitution possibilities between them. Given the skilled labor payment shares of the GTAP database, we offer an ex post rationalization within a production-theoretic framework. This relies on inter-regional covariation in the GTAP shares and in measures of educational attainment. Adoption of a suitable nesting of skilled-unskilled labor in GTAP's production function enables us to derive a 'reasonable' value for the (implicit) substitution elasticity between skilled-unskilled labors.
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Papers by Gouranga Das