In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic... more In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic landscape has been dominated by two key developments in the global economy. First, there has been a sustained decline in world oil prices. This is already exerting, and will likely continue to exert, a differential impact on the performance and prospects of countries, depending on whether they are fuel importers or exporters. Second, there has been a rapid dollar appreciation against the euro and the yen. Most regional currencies have depreciated to only a limited extent against the dollar, implying significant appreciations in real, trade-weighted terms. Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific moderated from 7.2 percent in 2013 to 6.9 percent in 2014, reflecting slowdowns in China and some ASEAN-4 economies. Nonetheless, the region still accounted for more than one-third of global growth, twice the combined contribution of all other developing regions. In China, growth decelerated b...
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
This report is a synthesis of the background studies on Climate Change and Economic Policies prep... more This report is a synthesis of the background studies on Climate Change and Economic Policies prepared as part of the APEC Finance Ministers" Policy Initiatives of 2008. 1 Under this initiative the World Bank was asked to prepare studies on the current state of economic policies concerning climate change and recommendations for strengthening these policies. The findings from this study, the background studies on which this is based, are intended to stimulate dialogue on economic policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The synthesis presents a menu of options for fiscal, regulatory, trade and investment policies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and increase the use of energy efficiency and renewable technologies. This report has been presented at the APEC Senior Finance Officials Meetings in September, 2010. The final version was tabled at the APEC Finance Ministers" meetings in November, 2010. The four background studies on which this synthesis is based are: i. Climate Change and Fiscal Policy: The study examines four main themes: fiscal policy instruments for mitigation; the choices among carbon pricing and technology policies; energy sector issues in developing economies that affect these choices; and fiscal policies for adaptation. ii. Trade and Investment Policies to Promote Climate Friendly Technologies in APEC: The study identifies the use and potential of climate friendly technologies (CFTs) and their promotion through investment and trade policies. iii. Assessing Capacity Building Needs for the Use of Market-Based GHG mitigation Instruments: This study outlines a preliminary approach for the assessment of an economy"s capacity to use market-based GHG mitigation instruments. It draws on the case of the Kyoto Protocol"s Clean Development Mechanism in China and Indonesia to delineate the technical and institutional capacities necessary to successfully implement market-based instruments. iv. Research Papers on the Impact of Extreme Climate Events, Household Welfare, and Policy Responses: This analyzes how poor households who live in areas vulnerable to climate change, mainly in the form of changes in rainfall and occurrence and severity of natural disasters, will be affected by extreme climate events. This analysis is conducted using detailed poverty, weather and geographic maps in three developing APEC member economies, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam and identifies policy options for strengthening adaptive capacity. These studies were guided by a World Bank team led by Ahmad Ahsan (EASPR/OCE) and consisting of Syud Amer Ahmed (DECAR), Johannes Heister (EASER), Emmanuel Skoufias (PRMPR), Xueman Wang (LECCF) and Katherine Patrick (EASPR), under the guidance of Vikram Nehru, Chief Economist and Sector Director, PREM and FPD, EAP. Francis Ng (DECTI) provided important inputs concerning trade policy. Milan Brahmbhatt (PRMVP) and Michael Toman (DECEE) provided very helpful comments on an earlier draft of this synthesis study. The study on climate change and fiscal policy was prepared by an Australian National University team led by Professor Stephen Howes. The study on trade and investment policies to promote CFTs in APEC was prepared by a team from BAEconomics (Australia), led by Anna Matysek. The study on market readiness was prepared by a team from Ecofys (Germany) led by Niklas Höhne. The study on extreme climate events is based on country studies led by Emmanuel Skoufias and Luc Christiaensen (EASER/UNU-WIDER). These studies have benefited from comments and guidance by Jan P. Bojo (EASER), James Brumby (PRMPS), Steve Jaffee (EASER), Vijay Jagannathan (EASIN), Hironori Kawauchi (EASPR), John A. Roome (EASSD), Apurva Sanghi (GFDRR), and David Victor (University of California at San Diego). Mildred Gonsalvez (EASPR) provided valuable assistance in processing this report.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) brings together ten countries with over 620 mi... more The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) brings together ten countries with over 620 million people and a combined gross domestic product of more than USD 2.5 trillion. These countries are well integrated into the global economy and have benefited from this integration. And, as evidenced by their adoption of the ambitious goal of forming an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015, they are committed to even deeper regional integration. This report takes stock of ASEAN’s achievements in services integration, delineates the potential gains from further integration and highlights the challenges that remain. Recognizing the role of services in spurring economic growth and job creation, including in manufacturing and agriculture, regional policymakers have committed to an ambitious plan for integrating their services sectors as a core element of the AEC. As the report highlights, there are successes in some sectors, such as in health in Thailand, education in Malaysia and financ...
World Bank country economists throughout the East Asia and Pacific Region provided country write-... more World Bank country economists throughout the East Asia and Pacific Region provided country write-ups and tables and assisted with the analysis.
This report was printed by The World Bank Printing & Multimedia Department using only FSC certifi... more This report was printed by The World Bank Printing & Multimedia Department using only FSC certified paper and environmentally sustainable water based inks. This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of ASEAN or The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
International migration in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) has historically been extra regional. ... more International migration in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) has historically been extra regional. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, numerous Japanese and Chinese migrants left for the Americas in search of better economic opportunities. Today, economic opportunities sustain large cyclical flows of temporary labor migrants from Indonesia and the Philippines to the Middle East. Rapidly growing and relatively wealthy economies in EAP have also long sustained inflows from other regions. Malaysia and Singapore, for instance, received substantial numbers of migrants from countries in South Asia during the British colonial period, a process that continues today. The objective of this report is to analyze how international migration should be managed in the region and how countries and organizations in the region can identify policies and institutions to manage migration in a way that supports development goals while simultaneously protecting the rights of migrants.
Since the adoption of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint in 2007, ASEAN has undertaken ... more Since the adoption of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint in 2007, ASEAN has undertaken various efforts to monitor its implementation. Building upon the AEC Scorecard, this inaugural ASEAN Integration Monitoring Report (AIMR) assesses the progress in four AEC-related dimensions: merchandise trade, trade facilitation, services trade and investment. It focuses on policy and market integration outcomes achieved in ASEAN Member States (AMS), as part of the first pillar of the AEC formation process. Released by the ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office (AIMO) of the ASEAN Secretariat, together with the World Bank-East Asia Pacific Region, the Report is the first component of the ASEAN Community Monitoring and Evaluation Program (AECMEP). It is expected to be released annually to provide a regular update on the state of integration in ASEAN. In this regard, we would like to extend our appreciation to the World Bank for assisting in strengthening ASEAN's monitoring and analytical capacities as well as the ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program (AADCP) II for its support in implementing the AECMEP. The AIMR shows that ASEAN's broader economic agenda has brought significant gains to AMS. As a trade-creating block, together with the improvement of trade facilitation, ASEAN integration has led to an increase in intra-ASEAN trade, parallel with an increase in ASEAN's trade with the rest of the world. ASEAN also had modest contributions to the development of the services sector and the enhancement of foreign direct investment (FDI), both for extra-and intra-regional inflows. Finally, AEC efforts also help in narrowing the development gap and accelerating development in CLMV countries, whose share of GDP in ASEAN grew from 3.5% in 1990 to nearly 10% in 2011. This is further reflected in the implementation rate of 79.7 % of the AEC Scorecard as of August 2013. Despite these achievements, there remain several areas where implementation has been limited. Although ASEAN's gains came from enhancing trade facilitation, services and investments, efforts are still needed in these critical areas as well as in the transport sector. Domestic regulatory reforms, enhanced capacities, strong internal coordination and sufficient budgets are imperatives in order to address the implementation challenges. The AIMR further suggests priorities for future actions for the effective implementation of the AEC 2015 goals. To complement the AIMR and further enhance ASEAN's monitoring capabilities, the AECMEP will also develop the components of integration of trade in services: the ASEAN database of trade in services and the ASEAN-World Bank Services Regional Integration Report. We hope that this Report will be a useful document for ASEAN officials and policy-makers, serving as the key monitoring report used to track AEC's progress, at both regional and national levels, to ensure its timely realization by 2015.
This report analyses the available evidence on India's labor market developments in the afore... more This report analyses the available evidence on India's labor market developments in the aforementioned context and with the following objectives: (i) to assess developments in labor markets (the next section); (ii) to identify key employment challenges (the third section); and (iii) to make recommendations for improving labor market outcomes (the fourth section). Based on wide-ranging consultations with central and state government officials, private sector representatives, trade unionists, and academics, this report addresses six major questions in its six chapters: what are the main developments in India's labor markets? What is happening to the volume and quality of jobs being created in the informal sector? Why has formal sector employment growth, especially in manufacturing, been slow? What has contributed to the persistence of 'dualism'-the large gap in productivity and earnings between the formal and informal sectors-within the manufacturing sector and between rural and urban areas? How do labor market outcomes differ across regions and why? What do these differences imply? How do labor market regulations affect outcomes? Specifically, which policies are the most binding and what reforms are needed to remove constraints? In what way can the active labor market policies pursued by Union and State governments be made more effective? How can the skills of the workforce be increased?
This paper studies the economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor laws. We ... more This paper studies the economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor laws. We examine the effects of amendments to labor dispute laws, and amendments to job security legislation. We also identify the effects of legal amendments related to the most contentious regulation of all: Chapter Vb of the Industrial Disputes Act, which stipulates that firms with 100 or more employees cannot retrench workers without government authorization. We find that laws that increase job security or increase the cost of labor disputes substantially reduce registered sector employment and output but do not increase the labor share. Labor-intensive industries, such as textiles, are the hardest hit by laws that increase job security while capital-intensive industries are most affected by higher labor dispute resolution costs. We also find that the widespread and increasing use of contract labor may have brought some output and employment gains but did not make up for the adverse effects of job security and dispute resolution laws.
... Ahsan, Ahmad and Pages, Carmen and Roy, Tirthankar (2008) Legislation, enforcement and adjudi... more ... Ahsan, Ahmad and Pages, Carmen and Roy, Tirthankar (2008) Legislation, enforcement and adjudication in Indian labor markets: origins, consequences and the way forward. In: Mazumdar, Dipak and Sarkar, Sandip, (eds.) Globalization, labor markets and inequality in India. ...
This article provides a first attempt to study the combined economic effects of legal amendments ... more This article provides a first attempt to study the combined economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor regulation (de jure) as well as of the increasing use of contract labor (de facto) in India. Within de jure reforms, we distinguish between amendments in laws ...
Taking advantage of variation across Indian states in labor reforms, this paper studies the econo... more Taking advantage of variation across Indian states in labor reforms, this paper studies the economic effects of labor dispute resolution legislation (DL) and employment protection legislation (EPL) in the manufacturing sector. We find that laws that increase the cost of dispute ...
In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic... more In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic landscape has been dominated by two key developments in the global economy. First, there has been a sustained decline in world oil prices. This is already exerting, and will likely continue to exert, a differential impact on the performance and prospects of countries, depending on whether they are fuel importers or exporters. Second, there has been a rapid dollar appreciation against the euro and the yen. Most regional currencies have depreciated to only a limited extent against the dollar, implying significant appreciations in real, trade-weighted terms. Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific moderated from 7.2 percent in 2013 to 6.9 percent in 2014, reflecting slowdowns in China and some ASEAN-4 economies. Nonetheless, the region still accounted for more than one-third of global growth, twice the combined contribution of all other developing regions. In China, growth decelerated b...
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
This report is a synthesis of the background studies on Climate Change and Economic Policies prep... more This report is a synthesis of the background studies on Climate Change and Economic Policies prepared as part of the APEC Finance Ministers" Policy Initiatives of 2008. 1 Under this initiative the World Bank was asked to prepare studies on the current state of economic policies concerning climate change and recommendations for strengthening these policies. The findings from this study, the background studies on which this is based, are intended to stimulate dialogue on economic policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The synthesis presents a menu of options for fiscal, regulatory, trade and investment policies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and increase the use of energy efficiency and renewable technologies. This report has been presented at the APEC Senior Finance Officials Meetings in September, 2010. The final version was tabled at the APEC Finance Ministers" meetings in November, 2010. The four background studies on which this synthesis is based are: i. Climate Change and Fiscal Policy: The study examines four main themes: fiscal policy instruments for mitigation; the choices among carbon pricing and technology policies; energy sector issues in developing economies that affect these choices; and fiscal policies for adaptation. ii. Trade and Investment Policies to Promote Climate Friendly Technologies in APEC: The study identifies the use and potential of climate friendly technologies (CFTs) and their promotion through investment and trade policies. iii. Assessing Capacity Building Needs for the Use of Market-Based GHG mitigation Instruments: This study outlines a preliminary approach for the assessment of an economy"s capacity to use market-based GHG mitigation instruments. It draws on the case of the Kyoto Protocol"s Clean Development Mechanism in China and Indonesia to delineate the technical and institutional capacities necessary to successfully implement market-based instruments. iv. Research Papers on the Impact of Extreme Climate Events, Household Welfare, and Policy Responses: This analyzes how poor households who live in areas vulnerable to climate change, mainly in the form of changes in rainfall and occurrence and severity of natural disasters, will be affected by extreme climate events. This analysis is conducted using detailed poverty, weather and geographic maps in three developing APEC member economies, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam and identifies policy options for strengthening adaptive capacity. These studies were guided by a World Bank team led by Ahmad Ahsan (EASPR/OCE) and consisting of Syud Amer Ahmed (DECAR), Johannes Heister (EASER), Emmanuel Skoufias (PRMPR), Xueman Wang (LECCF) and Katherine Patrick (EASPR), under the guidance of Vikram Nehru, Chief Economist and Sector Director, PREM and FPD, EAP. Francis Ng (DECTI) provided important inputs concerning trade policy. Milan Brahmbhatt (PRMVP) and Michael Toman (DECEE) provided very helpful comments on an earlier draft of this synthesis study. The study on climate change and fiscal policy was prepared by an Australian National University team led by Professor Stephen Howes. The study on trade and investment policies to promote CFTs in APEC was prepared by a team from BAEconomics (Australia), led by Anna Matysek. The study on market readiness was prepared by a team from Ecofys (Germany) led by Niklas Höhne. The study on extreme climate events is based on country studies led by Emmanuel Skoufias and Luc Christiaensen (EASER/UNU-WIDER). These studies have benefited from comments and guidance by Jan P. Bojo (EASER), James Brumby (PRMPS), Steve Jaffee (EASER), Vijay Jagannathan (EASIN), Hironori Kawauchi (EASPR), John A. Roome (EASSD), Apurva Sanghi (GFDRR), and David Victor (University of California at San Diego). Mildred Gonsalvez (EASPR) provided valuable assistance in processing this report.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) brings together ten countries with over 620 mi... more The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) brings together ten countries with over 620 million people and a combined gross domestic product of more than USD 2.5 trillion. These countries are well integrated into the global economy and have benefited from this integration. And, as evidenced by their adoption of the ambitious goal of forming an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015, they are committed to even deeper regional integration. This report takes stock of ASEAN’s achievements in services integration, delineates the potential gains from further integration and highlights the challenges that remain. Recognizing the role of services in spurring economic growth and job creation, including in manufacturing and agriculture, regional policymakers have committed to an ambitious plan for integrating their services sectors as a core element of the AEC. As the report highlights, there are successes in some sectors, such as in health in Thailand, education in Malaysia and financ...
World Bank country economists throughout the East Asia and Pacific Region provided country write-... more World Bank country economists throughout the East Asia and Pacific Region provided country write-ups and tables and assisted with the analysis.
This report was printed by The World Bank Printing & Multimedia Department using only FSC certifi... more This report was printed by The World Bank Printing & Multimedia Department using only FSC certified paper and environmentally sustainable water based inks. This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of ASEAN or The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
International migration in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) has historically been extra regional. ... more International migration in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) has historically been extra regional. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, numerous Japanese and Chinese migrants left for the Americas in search of better economic opportunities. Today, economic opportunities sustain large cyclical flows of temporary labor migrants from Indonesia and the Philippines to the Middle East. Rapidly growing and relatively wealthy economies in EAP have also long sustained inflows from other regions. Malaysia and Singapore, for instance, received substantial numbers of migrants from countries in South Asia during the British colonial period, a process that continues today. The objective of this report is to analyze how international migration should be managed in the region and how countries and organizations in the region can identify policies and institutions to manage migration in a way that supports development goals while simultaneously protecting the rights of migrants.
Since the adoption of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint in 2007, ASEAN has undertaken ... more Since the adoption of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint in 2007, ASEAN has undertaken various efforts to monitor its implementation. Building upon the AEC Scorecard, this inaugural ASEAN Integration Monitoring Report (AIMR) assesses the progress in four AEC-related dimensions: merchandise trade, trade facilitation, services trade and investment. It focuses on policy and market integration outcomes achieved in ASEAN Member States (AMS), as part of the first pillar of the AEC formation process. Released by the ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office (AIMO) of the ASEAN Secretariat, together with the World Bank-East Asia Pacific Region, the Report is the first component of the ASEAN Community Monitoring and Evaluation Program (AECMEP). It is expected to be released annually to provide a regular update on the state of integration in ASEAN. In this regard, we would like to extend our appreciation to the World Bank for assisting in strengthening ASEAN's monitoring and analytical capacities as well as the ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program (AADCP) II for its support in implementing the AECMEP. The AIMR shows that ASEAN's broader economic agenda has brought significant gains to AMS. As a trade-creating block, together with the improvement of trade facilitation, ASEAN integration has led to an increase in intra-ASEAN trade, parallel with an increase in ASEAN's trade with the rest of the world. ASEAN also had modest contributions to the development of the services sector and the enhancement of foreign direct investment (FDI), both for extra-and intra-regional inflows. Finally, AEC efforts also help in narrowing the development gap and accelerating development in CLMV countries, whose share of GDP in ASEAN grew from 3.5% in 1990 to nearly 10% in 2011. This is further reflected in the implementation rate of 79.7 % of the AEC Scorecard as of August 2013. Despite these achievements, there remain several areas where implementation has been limited. Although ASEAN's gains came from enhancing trade facilitation, services and investments, efforts are still needed in these critical areas as well as in the transport sector. Domestic regulatory reforms, enhanced capacities, strong internal coordination and sufficient budgets are imperatives in order to address the implementation challenges. The AIMR further suggests priorities for future actions for the effective implementation of the AEC 2015 goals. To complement the AIMR and further enhance ASEAN's monitoring capabilities, the AECMEP will also develop the components of integration of trade in services: the ASEAN database of trade in services and the ASEAN-World Bank Services Regional Integration Report. We hope that this Report will be a useful document for ASEAN officials and policy-makers, serving as the key monitoring report used to track AEC's progress, at both regional and national levels, to ensure its timely realization by 2015.
This report analyses the available evidence on India's labor market developments in the afore... more This report analyses the available evidence on India's labor market developments in the aforementioned context and with the following objectives: (i) to assess developments in labor markets (the next section); (ii) to identify key employment challenges (the third section); and (iii) to make recommendations for improving labor market outcomes (the fourth section). Based on wide-ranging consultations with central and state government officials, private sector representatives, trade unionists, and academics, this report addresses six major questions in its six chapters: what are the main developments in India's labor markets? What is happening to the volume and quality of jobs being created in the informal sector? Why has formal sector employment growth, especially in manufacturing, been slow? What has contributed to the persistence of 'dualism'-the large gap in productivity and earnings between the formal and informal sectors-within the manufacturing sector and between rural and urban areas? How do labor market outcomes differ across regions and why? What do these differences imply? How do labor market regulations affect outcomes? Specifically, which policies are the most binding and what reforms are needed to remove constraints? In what way can the active labor market policies pursued by Union and State governments be made more effective? How can the skills of the workforce be increased?
This paper studies the economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor laws. We ... more This paper studies the economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor laws. We examine the effects of amendments to labor dispute laws, and amendments to job security legislation. We also identify the effects of legal amendments related to the most contentious regulation of all: Chapter Vb of the Industrial Disputes Act, which stipulates that firms with 100 or more employees cannot retrench workers without government authorization. We find that laws that increase job security or increase the cost of labor disputes substantially reduce registered sector employment and output but do not increase the labor share. Labor-intensive industries, such as textiles, are the hardest hit by laws that increase job security while capital-intensive industries are most affected by higher labor dispute resolution costs. We also find that the widespread and increasing use of contract labor may have brought some output and employment gains but did not make up for the adverse effects of job security and dispute resolution laws.
... Ahsan, Ahmad and Pages, Carmen and Roy, Tirthankar (2008) Legislation, enforcement and adjudi... more ... Ahsan, Ahmad and Pages, Carmen and Roy, Tirthankar (2008) Legislation, enforcement and adjudication in Indian labor markets: origins, consequences and the way forward. In: Mazumdar, Dipak and Sarkar, Sandip, (eds.) Globalization, labor markets and inequality in India. ...
This article provides a first attempt to study the combined economic effects of legal amendments ... more This article provides a first attempt to study the combined economic effects of legal amendments on different types of labor regulation (de jure) as well as of the increasing use of contract labor (de facto) in India. Within de jure reforms, we distinguish between amendments in laws ...
Taking advantage of variation across Indian states in labor reforms, this paper studies the econo... more Taking advantage of variation across Indian states in labor reforms, this paper studies the economic effects of labor dispute resolution legislation (DL) and employment protection legislation (EPL) in the manufacturing sector. We find that laws that increase the cost of dispute ...
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