What is a systems approach? The first step towards answering this question is an understanding of... more What is a systems approach? The first step towards answering this question is an understanding of the history of the systems movement, which includes a survey of contemporary systems discourse. In particular, I examine how systems researchers differentiated their contribution from mechanistic science -but also from holistic doctrines; and identify the similarities and sharpest differences between complex systems and other systems approaches. Having set the scene, the second step involves developing a definition of 'system' consistent with the spirit of the systems approach. 1 Aristotle [7] used the concept of a heap to refer to matter without form. 2 That is, give systems an ontological status or "real" existence. 3 Alternatives include Checkland [31] and Matthews [76], or see Lilienfeld [73] for a particularly spiteful critique. 4 The Enlightenment usually refers to the period between the signing of the peace accord at Westphalia in 1648, which brought stability to Western Europe, and the publication of Kant's [60] Critique of Pure Reason in 1781, which mounted a sceptical challenge to the Enlightenment philosophy. 5 The first rule is hardly a contentious principle in philosophy, but the fourth rule is equally important. For instance, Broad [23, p. 12] claims that "the greatest mistake in philosophy is that of over-simplifying the facts to be explained.
Alex Ryan is an assistant professor at the School of Advanced Military Stud-ies at Fort Leavenwor... more Alex Ryan is an assistant professor at the School of Advanced Military Stud-ies at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He has a Ph.D. in complex systems from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Previously, he was the Australian National Lead, TTCP Action Group on ...
This work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diplo... more This work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except ...
International Journal of Population Data Science, 2020
Introduction: Increasingly, the label “data trust” is being applied to repeatable mechanisms or a... more Introduction: Increasingly, the label “data trust” is being applied to repeatable mechanisms or approaches to sharing data in a timely, fair, safe and equitable way. However, there is a gap in terms of practical guidance about how to establish and operate a data trust. Aim and Approach: In December 2019, the Canadian Institute for Health Information and the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence convened a working meeting of 19 people representing 15 Canadian organizations/initiatives involved in data sharing, most of which focus on public sector health data. The objective was to identify essential requirements for the establishment and operation of data trusts. Preliminary findings were presented during the meeting then refined as participants and co-authors identified relevant literature and contributed to this manuscript. Results: Twelve (12) minimum specification requirements (“min specs”) for data trusts were identified. The foundational min spec is that data trusts m...
This report presents an analysis of a generalised logistics supply chain without back orders. Two... more This report presents an analysis of a generalised logistics supply chain without back orders. Two methods are proposed: a responsive but robust delivery system based on maintaining set holdings levels; and a technique from Control Theory which pushes stock through the chain in anticipation of demand over both time and space. Furthermore, a heuristic is proposed to set the policy for holdings levels using a hybrid of statistical analysis, Simulated Annealing and Lagrangian Relaxation. Finally, a comparison between methods under uncertainty, with error in prediction and correlated demand, is conducted. Each method was found to be useful in different contexts. The impact of uncertainty and correlated consumption was quantified for a set scenario and both were found to be significant factors in the performance of the supply chain. RELEASE LIMITATION Approved for public release Published by Land Operations Division DSTO Defence Science and Technology Organisation PO Box 1500 Edinburgh So...
This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I-Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along w... more This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I-Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along with Issue 7:4, Relating Systems Thinking and Design II-Theoretical Evolution in Systemic Design, together form a double special issue of FORMakademisk on the theory and practice of Systemic Design. The two special issues are manifestations of a particular context. In 2005, one of the editors, Birger Sevaldson, initiated a research project on Systems Oriented Design at the Oslo School of Architecture and Design. The purpose of the project was to explore the contribution of systems thinking to help better cope with the challenges to the design profession of extreme complexity. Systems Oriented Design was developed as a practice and taught as a set of skills and tools rather than a body of theories and methodology. During this process of developing a new practice, the connection to former theories of systems thinking in design and to systems theories in general became apparent. To connect t...
Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has ... more Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has not yet been widely recognised. In this paper I introduce Peirce’s theory of signs, which facilitates a definition of representation in general. In summary, representation means that for some agent, a model is used to stand in for another entity in a way that shapes the behaviour of the agent with respect to that entity. Representation in general is then related to the theories of representation that have developed within different disciplines. I compare theories of representation from metaphysics, military theory and systems theory. Additional complications arise in explaining the special case of mental representations, which is the focus of cognitive science. I consider the dominant theory of cognition – that the brain is a representational device – as well as the sceptical anti-representational response. Finally, I argue that representation distinguishes agents from non-representation...
Organizations, industrial sectors, and societies actively resist change. If they did not, they wo... more Organizations, industrial sectors, and societies actively resist change. If they did not, they would not last long in a turbulent world. The defenses institutions build to buffer structures and practices they value from external perturbation also inhibit innovation and adaptation by reducing variation, filtering weak signals, and enforcing conformity. An institution that creates value at one time and in one context can develop pathologies when the context shifts. In the extreme case, an institution may become driven by a “killer business model”. The tobacco industry is the ultimate example of a killer business model, where growth becomes coupled with harming customers. This surprisingly pervasive phenomenon manifests in institutions at all scales, from marriages to civilizations. With it, both the opportunity and the need for disruption arise. In this article, we turn to the theory of insurgency to provide insights on how to disrupt and transform systems that have calcified around k...
Form Akademisk - forskningstidsskrift for design og designdidaktikk, 2017
This special issue of Form Akademisk captures some of the systemic design thinking and research p... more This special issue of Form Akademisk captures some of the systemic design thinking and research presented at the RSD3 conference, held in Oslo, Norway in 2014, and the RSD4 conference, held in Banff, Canada in 2015. These two conferences offered a range of submissions encompassing the fields of design, systemics, public policy, healthcare, and other domains. This body of work explores the emerging renaissance of systems thinking in design. The papers presented here are responses to the world we live and design in, a world that is increasingly complex and increasingly problematic for those in government, industry and academia alike. We believe that the thinking and intervention developed at RSD3 and RSD4 is well poised to meet these challenges. In this issue, we offer two sets of papers; the first set focuses on frameworks and organizing concepts, and the second set focuses on methods and tools to aid in systemic design.
Dr. Cox has published multiple works as well as scholarly articles in several peer-reviewed, acad... more Dr. Cox has published multiple works as well as scholarly articles in several peer-reviewed, academic journals. Dr. Cox is also working on a larger project focusing on the future of war. **Dr. Alex Ryan is a Senior Systems Design Advisor with the Government of Alberta. He co-founded the Alberta CoLab and the Systemic Design Research Network. He is also a co-chair of the Relating Systems Thinking and Design Symposium.
Conventional military forces are organised to generate large scale effects against similarly stru... more Conventional military forces are organised to generate large scale effects against similarly structured adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a 'game' between a conventional military force and a weaker adversary that is unable to match the scale of effects of the conventional force. In asymmetric warfare, an insurgents' strategy can be understood using a multi-scale perspective: by generating and exploiting fine scale complexity, insurgents prevent the conventional force from acting at the scale they are designed for. This paper presents a complex systems approach to the problem of asymmetric warfare, which shows how future force structures can be designed to adapt to environmental complexity at multiple scales and achieve full spectrum dominance.
Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has ... more Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has not yet been widely recognised. In this paper I introduce Peirce's theory of signs, which facilitates a definition of representation in general. In summary, representation means that for some agent, a model is used to stand in for another entity in a way that shapes the behaviour of the agent with respect to that entity. Representation in general is then related to the theories of representation that have developed within different disciplines. I compare theories of representation from metaphysics, military theory and systems theory. Additional complications arise in explaining the special case of mental representations, which is the focus of cognitive science. I consider the dominant theory of cognition-that the brain is a representational device-as well as the sceptical anti-representational response. Finally, I argue that representation distinguishes agents from non-representational objects: agents are objects capable of representation.
FormAkademisk - forskningstidsskrift for design og designdidaktikk, 2014
This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I – Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along... more This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I – Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along with Issue 7:4, Relating Systems Thinking II – Theoretical Evolution in Systemic Design, together form a double special issue of FORMakademisk on the theory and practice of Systemic Design.
This paper introduces two novel applications of systemic design to facilitate a comparison of alt... more This paper introduces two novel applications of systemic design to facilitate a comparison of alternative methodologies that integrate systems thinking and design. In the first case study, systemic design helped the Procurement Department at the University of Toronto re-envision how public policy is implemented and how value is created in the broader university purchasing ecosystem. This resulted in an estimated $1.5 million in savings in the first year, and a rise in user retention rates from 40% to 99%. In the second case study, systemic design helped the clean energy and natural resources group within the Government of Alberta to design a more efficient and effective resource management system and shift the way that natural resource departments work together. This resulted in the formation of a standing systemic design team and contributed to the creation of an integrated resource management system. A comparative analysis of the two projects identifies a shared set of core princi...
This work explores emergent behaviour in a complex adaptive system, specifically an agent-based b... more This work explores emergent behaviour in a complex adaptive system, specifically an agent-based battlefield simulation model. We explore the changes in agent attribute sets through the use of genetic algorithms over a series of battles, with performance measured by a number of different statistics including number of casualties, number of enemy agents killed, and success rate at "capturing the flag". The agents' capabilities include (but are not limited to) manoeuvrability upon the battlefield, formulating, sending, receiving and acting upon messages and attacking enemy agents.
12th International Command and Control Research …, 2007
For highly complex missions, it is not realistic to expect to "get it right" from the outset. The... more For highly complex missions, it is not realistic to expect to "get it right" from the outset. The initial conditions are much less important than the ability to improve performance over time. This is the aim of Adaptive Campaigning. We present a methodology that is a first step towards achieving this aim, based on the notion of an explicit, shared, Causal and Influence Network (C&IN). Firstly, we describe the feedback loops between the force and its environment, which provides the basis for adaptation. Secondly, we analyse the flow of information between the environment and the C&IN. This reveals the need for targeted probing actions that generate small information-rich signals, in contrast to a sensor grid that would collect large amounts of information-poor data. Thirdly, we outline the features and composition of the C&IN and discuss how it may be evolved, represented and used. Fourthly, we reflect on the assumptions and limitations of our approach. In conclusion, we highlight how this novel approach to adaptive campaigning can capture lessons learned across rotations, increase adaptability at all scales, levels and classes, and thereby significantly improve the chances for successful outcomes.
Since its application to systems, emergence has been explained in terms of levels of observation.... more Since its application to systems, emergence has been explained in terms of levels of observation. This approach has led to confusion, contradiction, incoherence and at times mysticism. When the idea of level is replaced by a framework of scope, resolution and state, this confusion is dissolved. We find that emergent properties are determined by the relationship between the scope of macrostate and microstate descriptions. This establishes a normative definition of emergent properties and emergence that makes sense of previous descriptive definitions of emergence. In particular, this framework sheds light on which classes of emergent properties are epistemic and which are ontological, and identifies fundamental limits to our ability to capture emergence in formal systems.
Complex Systems Science aims to understand concepts like complexity, self-organization, emergence... more Complex Systems Science aims to understand concepts like complexity, self-organization, emergence and adaptation, among others. The inherent fuzziness in complex systems definitions is complicated by the unclear relation among these central processes: does self-organisation emerge or does it set the preconditions for emergence? Does complexity arise by adaptation or is complexity necessary for adaptation to arise? The inevitable consequence of the current impasse is miscommunication among scientists within and across disciplines. We propose a set of concepts, together with their possible information-theoretic interpretations, which can be used to facilitate the Complex Systems Science discourse. Our hope is that the suggested information-theoretic baseline may promote consistent communications among practitioners, and provide new insights into the field. This does not limit evolution to DNA/RNA based terrestrial biology-see Section 6.
What is a systems approach? The first step towards answering this question is an understanding of... more What is a systems approach? The first step towards answering this question is an understanding of the history of the systems movement, which includes a survey of contemporary systems discourse. In particular, I examine how systems researchers differentiated their contribution from mechanistic science -but also from holistic doctrines; and identify the similarities and sharpest differences between complex systems and other systems approaches. Having set the scene, the second step involves developing a definition of 'system' consistent with the spirit of the systems approach. 1 Aristotle [7] used the concept of a heap to refer to matter without form. 2 That is, give systems an ontological status or "real" existence. 3 Alternatives include Checkland [31] and Matthews [76], or see Lilienfeld [73] for a particularly spiteful critique. 4 The Enlightenment usually refers to the period between the signing of the peace accord at Westphalia in 1648, which brought stability to Western Europe, and the publication of Kant's [60] Critique of Pure Reason in 1781, which mounted a sceptical challenge to the Enlightenment philosophy. 5 The first rule is hardly a contentious principle in philosophy, but the fourth rule is equally important. For instance, Broad [23, p. 12] claims that "the greatest mistake in philosophy is that of over-simplifying the facts to be explained.
Alex Ryan is an assistant professor at the School of Advanced Military Stud-ies at Fort Leavenwor... more Alex Ryan is an assistant professor at the School of Advanced Military Stud-ies at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He has a Ph.D. in complex systems from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Previously, he was the Australian National Lead, TTCP Action Group on ...
This work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diplo... more This work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except ...
International Journal of Population Data Science, 2020
Introduction: Increasingly, the label “data trust” is being applied to repeatable mechanisms or a... more Introduction: Increasingly, the label “data trust” is being applied to repeatable mechanisms or approaches to sharing data in a timely, fair, safe and equitable way. However, there is a gap in terms of practical guidance about how to establish and operate a data trust. Aim and Approach: In December 2019, the Canadian Institute for Health Information and the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence convened a working meeting of 19 people representing 15 Canadian organizations/initiatives involved in data sharing, most of which focus on public sector health data. The objective was to identify essential requirements for the establishment and operation of data trusts. Preliminary findings were presented during the meeting then refined as participants and co-authors identified relevant literature and contributed to this manuscript. Results: Twelve (12) minimum specification requirements (“min specs”) for data trusts were identified. The foundational min spec is that data trusts m...
This report presents an analysis of a generalised logistics supply chain without back orders. Two... more This report presents an analysis of a generalised logistics supply chain without back orders. Two methods are proposed: a responsive but robust delivery system based on maintaining set holdings levels; and a technique from Control Theory which pushes stock through the chain in anticipation of demand over both time and space. Furthermore, a heuristic is proposed to set the policy for holdings levels using a hybrid of statistical analysis, Simulated Annealing and Lagrangian Relaxation. Finally, a comparison between methods under uncertainty, with error in prediction and correlated demand, is conducted. Each method was found to be useful in different contexts. The impact of uncertainty and correlated consumption was quantified for a set scenario and both were found to be significant factors in the performance of the supply chain. RELEASE LIMITATION Approved for public release Published by Land Operations Division DSTO Defence Science and Technology Organisation PO Box 1500 Edinburgh So...
This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I-Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along w... more This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I-Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along with Issue 7:4, Relating Systems Thinking and Design II-Theoretical Evolution in Systemic Design, together form a double special issue of FORMakademisk on the theory and practice of Systemic Design. The two special issues are manifestations of a particular context. In 2005, one of the editors, Birger Sevaldson, initiated a research project on Systems Oriented Design at the Oslo School of Architecture and Design. The purpose of the project was to explore the contribution of systems thinking to help better cope with the challenges to the design profession of extreme complexity. Systems Oriented Design was developed as a practice and taught as a set of skills and tools rather than a body of theories and methodology. During this process of developing a new practice, the connection to former theories of systems thinking in design and to systems theories in general became apparent. To connect t...
Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has ... more Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has not yet been widely recognised. In this paper I introduce Peirce’s theory of signs, which facilitates a definition of representation in general. In summary, representation means that for some agent, a model is used to stand in for another entity in a way that shapes the behaviour of the agent with respect to that entity. Representation in general is then related to the theories of representation that have developed within different disciplines. I compare theories of representation from metaphysics, military theory and systems theory. Additional complications arise in explaining the special case of mental representations, which is the focus of cognitive science. I consider the dominant theory of cognition – that the brain is a representational device – as well as the sceptical anti-representational response. Finally, I argue that representation distinguishes agents from non-representation...
Organizations, industrial sectors, and societies actively resist change. If they did not, they wo... more Organizations, industrial sectors, and societies actively resist change. If they did not, they would not last long in a turbulent world. The defenses institutions build to buffer structures and practices they value from external perturbation also inhibit innovation and adaptation by reducing variation, filtering weak signals, and enforcing conformity. An institution that creates value at one time and in one context can develop pathologies when the context shifts. In the extreme case, an institution may become driven by a “killer business model”. The tobacco industry is the ultimate example of a killer business model, where growth becomes coupled with harming customers. This surprisingly pervasive phenomenon manifests in institutions at all scales, from marriages to civilizations. With it, both the opportunity and the need for disruption arise. In this article, we turn to the theory of insurgency to provide insights on how to disrupt and transform systems that have calcified around k...
Form Akademisk - forskningstidsskrift for design og designdidaktikk, 2017
This special issue of Form Akademisk captures some of the systemic design thinking and research p... more This special issue of Form Akademisk captures some of the systemic design thinking and research presented at the RSD3 conference, held in Oslo, Norway in 2014, and the RSD4 conference, held in Banff, Canada in 2015. These two conferences offered a range of submissions encompassing the fields of design, systemics, public policy, healthcare, and other domains. This body of work explores the emerging renaissance of systems thinking in design. The papers presented here are responses to the world we live and design in, a world that is increasingly complex and increasingly problematic for those in government, industry and academia alike. We believe that the thinking and intervention developed at RSD3 and RSD4 is well poised to meet these challenges. In this issue, we offer two sets of papers; the first set focuses on frameworks and organizing concepts, and the second set focuses on methods and tools to aid in systemic design.
Dr. Cox has published multiple works as well as scholarly articles in several peer-reviewed, acad... more Dr. Cox has published multiple works as well as scholarly articles in several peer-reviewed, academic journals. Dr. Cox is also working on a larger project focusing on the future of war. **Dr. Alex Ryan is a Senior Systems Design Advisor with the Government of Alberta. He co-founded the Alberta CoLab and the Systemic Design Research Network. He is also a co-chair of the Relating Systems Thinking and Design Symposium.
Conventional military forces are organised to generate large scale effects against similarly stru... more Conventional military forces are organised to generate large scale effects against similarly structured adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a 'game' between a conventional military force and a weaker adversary that is unable to match the scale of effects of the conventional force. In asymmetric warfare, an insurgents' strategy can be understood using a multi-scale perspective: by generating and exploiting fine scale complexity, insurgents prevent the conventional force from acting at the scale they are designed for. This paper presents a complex systems approach to the problem of asymmetric warfare, which shows how future force structures can be designed to adapt to environmental complexity at multiple scales and achieve full spectrum dominance.
Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has ... more Representation is inherent to the concept of an agent, but its importance in complex systems has not yet been widely recognised. In this paper I introduce Peirce's theory of signs, which facilitates a definition of representation in general. In summary, representation means that for some agent, a model is used to stand in for another entity in a way that shapes the behaviour of the agent with respect to that entity. Representation in general is then related to the theories of representation that have developed within different disciplines. I compare theories of representation from metaphysics, military theory and systems theory. Additional complications arise in explaining the special case of mental representations, which is the focus of cognitive science. I consider the dominant theory of cognition-that the brain is a representational device-as well as the sceptical anti-representational response. Finally, I argue that representation distinguishes agents from non-representational objects: agents are objects capable of representation.
FormAkademisk - forskningstidsskrift for design og designdidaktikk, 2014
This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I – Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along... more This issue, Relating Systems Thinking and Design I – Practical Advances in Systemic Design, along with Issue 7:4, Relating Systems Thinking II – Theoretical Evolution in Systemic Design, together form a double special issue of FORMakademisk on the theory and practice of Systemic Design.
This paper introduces two novel applications of systemic design to facilitate a comparison of alt... more This paper introduces two novel applications of systemic design to facilitate a comparison of alternative methodologies that integrate systems thinking and design. In the first case study, systemic design helped the Procurement Department at the University of Toronto re-envision how public policy is implemented and how value is created in the broader university purchasing ecosystem. This resulted in an estimated $1.5 million in savings in the first year, and a rise in user retention rates from 40% to 99%. In the second case study, systemic design helped the clean energy and natural resources group within the Government of Alberta to design a more efficient and effective resource management system and shift the way that natural resource departments work together. This resulted in the formation of a standing systemic design team and contributed to the creation of an integrated resource management system. A comparative analysis of the two projects identifies a shared set of core princi...
This work explores emergent behaviour in a complex adaptive system, specifically an agent-based b... more This work explores emergent behaviour in a complex adaptive system, specifically an agent-based battlefield simulation model. We explore the changes in agent attribute sets through the use of genetic algorithms over a series of battles, with performance measured by a number of different statistics including number of casualties, number of enemy agents killed, and success rate at "capturing the flag". The agents' capabilities include (but are not limited to) manoeuvrability upon the battlefield, formulating, sending, receiving and acting upon messages and attacking enemy agents.
12th International Command and Control Research …, 2007
For highly complex missions, it is not realistic to expect to "get it right" from the outset. The... more For highly complex missions, it is not realistic to expect to "get it right" from the outset. The initial conditions are much less important than the ability to improve performance over time. This is the aim of Adaptive Campaigning. We present a methodology that is a first step towards achieving this aim, based on the notion of an explicit, shared, Causal and Influence Network (C&IN). Firstly, we describe the feedback loops between the force and its environment, which provides the basis for adaptation. Secondly, we analyse the flow of information between the environment and the C&IN. This reveals the need for targeted probing actions that generate small information-rich signals, in contrast to a sensor grid that would collect large amounts of information-poor data. Thirdly, we outline the features and composition of the C&IN and discuss how it may be evolved, represented and used. Fourthly, we reflect on the assumptions and limitations of our approach. In conclusion, we highlight how this novel approach to adaptive campaigning can capture lessons learned across rotations, increase adaptability at all scales, levels and classes, and thereby significantly improve the chances for successful outcomes.
Since its application to systems, emergence has been explained in terms of levels of observation.... more Since its application to systems, emergence has been explained in terms of levels of observation. This approach has led to confusion, contradiction, incoherence and at times mysticism. When the idea of level is replaced by a framework of scope, resolution and state, this confusion is dissolved. We find that emergent properties are determined by the relationship between the scope of macrostate and microstate descriptions. This establishes a normative definition of emergent properties and emergence that makes sense of previous descriptive definitions of emergence. In particular, this framework sheds light on which classes of emergent properties are epistemic and which are ontological, and identifies fundamental limits to our ability to capture emergence in formal systems.
Complex Systems Science aims to understand concepts like complexity, self-organization, emergence... more Complex Systems Science aims to understand concepts like complexity, self-organization, emergence and adaptation, among others. The inherent fuzziness in complex systems definitions is complicated by the unclear relation among these central processes: does self-organisation emerge or does it set the preconditions for emergence? Does complexity arise by adaptation or is complexity necessary for adaptation to arise? The inevitable consequence of the current impasse is miscommunication among scientists within and across disciplines. We propose a set of concepts, together with their possible information-theoretic interpretations, which can be used to facilitate the Complex Systems Science discourse. Our hope is that the suggested information-theoretic baseline may promote consistent communications among practitioners, and provide new insights into the field. This does not limit evolution to DNA/RNA based terrestrial biology-see Section 6.
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