Das Klimaschutzabkommen von Paris kam aufgrund einer Vielzahl wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse übe... more Das Klimaschutzabkommen von Paris kam aufgrund einer Vielzahl wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse über die Ursachen des Klimawandels zustande. Die Bundesregierung hat sich in dem Abkommen von 2015 verpflichtet, die Treibhausgasemissionen (THG-Emissionen) Deutschlands erheblich zu verringern. Ausgangspunkt dieser POSITION ist die Einschätzung, dass trotz der bisher umgesetzten Maßnahmen und der bereits erreichten beachtlichen Erfolge bei der Verminderung von THG-Emissionen die angestrebten Ziele kaum erfüllt werden können. Ohne Einleitung weiterreichender Schritte führt die derzeitige Vorgehensweise aus heutiger Sicht zu einer deutlichen Verfehlung der eingegangenen Verpflichtungen.
Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in D... more Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in December 2007. Given the accelerating threats of climate change in par-ticular for developing countries, immediately increased adaptation efforts are needed. Now, after agreeing the Bali Roadmap with the objective to finalise a new interna-tional climate change agreement by no later 2009, it is time to assess the state of knowledge on key questions which arise from the Bali Roadmap. These include as-pects like a streamlined definition of adaptation, the scale of, the responsibility for and the instruments to generate increased funding, but also questions of decision-making structures. The upcoming negotiations will have to address these questions, in addition to those related to mitigation efforts in order to avoid dangerous climate change. This briefing paper analyses the decisions taken in Bali and discusses relevant ques-tions with regard to adaptation for the upcoming negotations, als...
* The underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency has been changed retros... more * The underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency has been changed retrospectively. That influences the comparability of the results between the different Index years. This year the data changes mostly affected Australia, China and Thailand.
Key developments: on the way to Paris, what has changed since Copenhagen? This year, the Climate ... more Key developments: on the way to Paris, what has changed since Copenhagen? This year, the Climate Change Performance Index shows a new “record” in global energy related CO2 emissions. Similar records have been reported almost every year since the Index was started ten years ago. In the coming years, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is also set to exceed the 400-ppm benchmark. Nevertheless, promising trends can also be reported. Both the rising emissions and a number of promising trends emphasize the need to reach an ambitious agreement at the COP21 in Paris. The new agreement should inspire confidence in investors and individuals alike to shift their investments to promote low and finally zero carbon emissions. Some of the developments that have taken place during the past five years highlight the differences in conditions before Copenhagen and raise hopes of reaching this agreement next year in Paris. 1. Emission growth rates are slowing and at the same time we can observe a global decoupling from CO2 emissions and GDP growth as well as from CO2 emissions and primary energy consumption. 2. The decoupling of emissions and primary energy consumption is in line with the rapidly developing renewable energy (RE) sector. 51 of the 58 Index states show a positive trend in the field of renewables and most have double-digit growth rates; the annual mean development of REs has shown a steady increase of about 15% over the last years (more than 16% in 2012). As part of this development, the price of REs is dropping rapidly and sometimes already outpaces that of fossil fuels. 3. The IPCC has made clear that four fifths of global fossil fuels need to stay in the ground and for the first time has published emission limits that must be observed in order to comply with the 2 °C guard rail. 4. In light of scientific studies, coal – as the number 1 top polluting energy source – must be phased out during the next decades if the target of remaining below the 2 °C threshold is to be reached. And climate change is only one factor contributing to the phasing out of coal. A number of politicians and investors have understood the circumstances and, as a result, for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the global coal industry finds itself on the defence. Anti-coal developments are now taking place in the world’s largest emitting countries: China and the US. In China, the Index data show declining growth rates of coal and a slow but steady decoupling of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions. About one third of Chinese provinces have already agreed to implement measures for a restriction of coal-fired power plants. And now, for the first time ever, China, in a joint public statement by its President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama, has named a date for an emissions peak. The US government has also given strong signals for a restrictive coal policy, both internally and externally. In addition, many development banks worldwide have fulfilled the announcements made last year and started to divest themselves of coal. This led to a wave of divestment that has already caused public debate. The joint declaration in November 2014 by the heads of state of the two largest emitters created the momentum for taking political action before Paris 2015. Now it is up to the EU to show its willingness to catch up and regain its former leading role in climate protection. Not only should all G20 countries announce their goals until spring, it is also up to them to act and to constantly adjust their goals to the challenge throughout the process. These promising political signs together with data showing, on the one hand, declining emission growth rates and, on the other, a decoupling of CO2 emissions from GDP and primary energy consumption suggests that a real and stable plateau of overall emissions could be within reach in the coming years. Paris could be a turning point in this respect. And we can report on yet another silver lining: Something exciting came up in this year’s CCPI: Denmark and Sweden surpassed their benchmark for the winner’s podium. At least for now, these countries are doing their share to keep the world below 2 °C warming. However, since one year does not make a trend, we will have to see what happens in the future to be sure that this development is not due to short-term weather conditions or other fluctuations. But, if this promising development continues throughout the next years, these countries may be awarded with the 1st and 2nd places of the Index. For now, the first three places remain unoccupied to remind countries of how much still remains to be done to successfully prevent the dangerous impacts of climate change
Nobody on the winners\u27 desk The Climate Change Performance Index 2009 shows: Policy must get i... more Nobody on the winners\u27 desk The Climate Change Performance Index 2009 shows: Policy must get in gear for the two degrees limit. Be they located top or bottom, the Climate Change Performance Index 2009, presented by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, shows that not a single country is to be judged as satisfactory with regard to protecting the climate. The specific criterion for this judgment is that, compared with 1990, no country is yet on the path that would be necessary to stay within the two degrees limit. The Climate Change Performance Index therefore does not have any winners this year. Due to the lack of will to engage themselves more strongly to avoid dangerous climate change, none of the countries achieved positions one to three. Position four to ten of this year are made up by Sweden, Germany, France, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Denmark. The other end of the index is to be taken note of as well. Especially Russia, the USA, Canada, and Austria have worrisome results. Crucially, they performed poorly in their current emissions level, emissions trend, and in the evaluation of their climate policy. In future editions of the index, a more positive rating regarding national and international policy could lead to a jump of the USA in the index, if the country really shows the kind of climate leadership announced by president elect Barack Obama
Extreme weather events are generally expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to globa... more Extreme weather events are generally expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. They have the potential to significantly undermine progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The Global Climate Risk Index 2008 analyses to what extent countries and country groups have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heatwaves etc.). These analyses are based on the well-known assessments of the Munich Re database NatCatSERVICE®. The figures for 2006 reveal that Asian countries dominate the ranking of the most affected countries (the Down10), while in the past decade hurricanes in the Caribbean region caused significant losses and deaths. In various respects, inter alia regarding the losses in relation to the GDP or deaths in relation to the population, less developed countries are affected more than industrialised countries. In terms of adaptation to climate change, it is important to note ...
Dear Reader, Our world is characterized by fast moving geopolitical and natural changes and the s... more Dear Reader, Our world is characterized by fast moving geopolitical and natural changes and the scenarios drawn by climate change specialists are alarming. If we want to avoid dangerous climate change and its ample consequences for creatures all over the world, it is necessary to take action right now. Awareness of the danger is growing and the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) keeps on working to bring it forward. Since 2005, the CCPI has been contributing to a clearer understanding of national and international climate policy. The various initial positions, interests, and strategies of the numerous countries make it hard to distinguish their strengths and weaknesses. The CCPI is an important tool to address this. To demonstrate existing measures more accurately and to encourage steps towards effective climate policy, the CCPI methodology was evaluated in 2012 and improvements have since been made. The integration of data on emissions from deforestation was one of the major s...
About the CCPI The Climate Change Performance Index is an instrument designed to enhance transpar... more About the CCPI The Climate Change Performance Index is an instrument designed to enhance transparency in international climate politics. Its aim is to put political and social pressure on those countries which have, up until now, failed to take ambitious action on climate protection. It also aims to highlight those countries with best-practice climate policies. On the basis of standardised criteria, the index evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 58 countries that are, together, responsible for more than 90% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. There are other countries with good or even higher climate protection performance, but due to methodological reasons, their inclusion is not possible. As the CCPI is mainly emissions based, countries with extremely low emissions simply cannot be taken into account. However it would be interesting to have a closer look on their climate protection efforts, since some of them are very proactive. After 7 years of publication, the CCPI has been thoroughly evaluated. This evaluation has had two major outcomes. Now, it has been possible to include emissions from deforestation, albeit not with the same quality of data as energyrelated emissions. The second achievement is a new structure and weighting of the individual indicators with a much stronger focus on renewable energy and efficiency as the most prominent mitigation strategies. Similar to last year, the average scores for national and international policies are weak. Most experts are not satisfied by far with the efforts of their governments with regard to the 2°C limit. The CCPI ranking is qualified in relative terms (better– worse) rather than absolute terms. Therefore, even those countries with high rankings have no reason to sit back and relax. On the contrary, the results illustrate that even if all countries were as involved as the current front runners, efforts would not yet be sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change. Hence, again this year, no country was awarded the rank of 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Since not only the CCPI methodology is in a continuous revision process, but also the underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency, it is important to notice there are retrospective changes that influence the comparability of the results between the different Index years. This year the data changes mostly affected Australia, China and Thailand
Key findings This year\u27s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) shows some interesting and wo... more Key findings This year\u27s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) shows some interesting and worrying results. As in the years before, we still cannot reward any country with the rankings 1-3, as no country is doing enough to prevent dangerous climate change. Sweden is back at the top and ranks 4th. This is especially due to their low emissions level and good emissions trend in some sectors (esp. housing sector). However, Swedish experts are criticising the Swedish climate policy as being not ambitious enough and insufficient with regard to the 2°C limit. The UK, ranked 5th, has shown strong elements of environmental leadership, but recently there have been worrying signs (e.g. ignoring recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change to tighten up the intervening carbon budgets) that the UK is stepping back from its efforts, which has kept them from achieving the top position. Brazil lost its top ranking because of increasing emissions. Also, the emissions from deforestation have increased since the end of 2010. Brazil would have received a worse ranking if the absolute emission indicators reflected not only energy, but also forest-related emissions. Germany’s new energy concept and a relatively good emissions trend resulted in a better evaluation of the national climate policy and, therefore, a climb from the seventh to the sixth rank. However, the emissions level in Germany is still too high for a top placement. Overall, mostly due to discouraging emissions levels and trends, the three lowest-ranking countries are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Iran. The US has climbed up two ranks mainly due to its reduction in emissions as a result of the economic crisis. However, the US remains at the bottom end of the index because of poor policy evaluations and a very high emissions level. India dropped 13 ranks because of a worse overall performance, especially because of a worse performance in the emissions trend. China’s climate performance is full of contradictions. While China (in absolute, not in per-capita terms) remains the world’s largest CO2 emitter with dramatically growing emissions (with a growing gap when comparing China with all other countries), the focus on national emissions reduction policy is rapidly intensifying through nationally binding energy-intensity reduction targets and a three-percent renewable-energy portfolio requirement. By now, China, which was previously considered a “nobody” in renewable energy production, is installing about half of the global renewable energy capacity per year. China’s position in the index will dramatically improve as soon as these positive trends will influence its emissions trend. One important factor for this years’ index is the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, which, as an unintended positive side effect, had a favourable influence on emissions trends of, e.g., Ireland and Spain, both of which climb up ten ranks in the Emissions Trend Indicator. The economic crisis also signified an opportunity for countries with high emissions levels to remodel their economies to include policies for a sustainable use of environmental regeneration. In order to include this development and bring the index up-to-date, a new indicator which measures the trend of CO2 per capita emissions from 2009 to 2010 is included in this year’s index. This indicator rewards countries for which the financial and economic crisis led not only to a dent in a continuously rising emissions trend, but which also contributed to further reductions in emissions during economic recovery. Australia has made encouraging steps towards improved climate policy. The experts recognized the new carbon tax as especially positive. Due to continuously high emissions, Australia remains in the last quarter of the CCPI. However, the latest emissions trend and the policy evaluation made Australia climb ten ranks and indicate that Australia has the ability to climb up in future rankings. Poor emissions trends and poor policy evaluations made the Netherlands lose twelve ranks. There are several leading countries in Europe, above all Sweden, UK and Germany. Here, performance rankings have increased during the last year. However, within Europe, countries such as Turkey, Poland and Croatia hold some of the lowest positions in the overall ranking. This is partly due to their policy evaluations. During its presidency of the European Council, Poland blocked the proposed EU’s 30 percent reduction target (until 2020). Within the first ten-ranking countries, Denmark improved its performance the most. This can be attributed to its improved national and international climate policy. It is especially worrying that the global trend towards burning coal (and oil from tar sands) has not been stopped. This is the main reason why we see emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) increasing in many countries. There is a robust trend towards increasing national renewable energy capacity. Especially China, the US and…
Climate policy - an \u27endangered species\u27? In this year again, none of the countries ranked ... more Climate policy - an \u27endangered species\u27? In this year again, none of the countries ranked in the index achieved the positions one to three; despite the high attention the issue of climate change has reached prior to the climate change summit in Copenhagen. None of the countries analysed is contributing sufficiently on a practical level to the goal to avoid dangerous climate change and keep global warming notably below the 2 degrees limit. It should be noted that more emerging economies are among the forerunners than in previous years. In addition to many European countries, Brazil, India and Mexico were able to place themselves in top positions. Yet, there is more to do to earn the best grade - Brazil, Sweden or the United Kingdom also still have a lot of catching-up to do. The index compares countries only with each other, and the first positions solely show that these countries perform better in terms of climate protection than others. No country is yet on the path to contribute adequately to avoiding dangerous climate change. Due to this lack of political will, this year again, positions one to three could not be awarded. So far, the index can only compare countries based on energy-induced emissions, therefore emissions resulting from land-use changes were not included. Brazil made big progress in reducing deforestation within the last months. However, it is not yet clear if this is a result due to a decreased demand of palm oil and soya from the current economic crisis. In regards to the emissions trend, Australia, China, Saudi Arabia and Austria in particular perform badly. Especially Saudi Arabia‘s performance in the Climate Change Performance Index contradicts the necessary level of climate protection: on the one hand, they are producing a high emissions level and a poor emissions trend. On the other hand, their representatives consistently obstructed the UN climate negotiations by, e.g., insisting on compensations for lost gains from oil sales, to be delivered through funds originally intended for the support of poor countries for adaptation measures. This led to an extremely negative policy evaluation. Looking at the emissions level of the ranked countries, the United States, Canada and Russia place very poorly. Even though the USA was able to improve several ranks in comparison to last year‘s results, the proof still needs to be furnished that the new climate policies of President Obama will also lead to reduced emissions and a leading international position on climate. The United Kingdom succeeded in passing a national climate policy act. Such a track may – if well done – lead to a constant emissions reduction and may help the UK to perform just as well next year. This is a vital component on the path to remain below the 2 degrees limit
Das Klima vor Gericht: Die Konsequenzen und Risiken der globalen Klimakrise werden immer deutlich... more Das Klima vor Gericht: Die Konsequenzen und Risiken der globalen Klimakrise werden immer deutlicher, viele davon können mit immer besserer wissenschaftlicher Evidenz auf den menschgemachten Klimawandel zurückgeführt werden. Dennoch sind die allermeisten Regierungen weit davon entfernt, die Ziele des Pariser Abkommens zu erfüllen. Daher wird die Rolle der Gerichte immer wichtiger auf dem Weg zu mehr Klimagerechtigkeit. Dies soll Grundrechte schützen und den Druck auf Politik und Unternehmen erhöhen. <em><strong>Climate Litigation: </strong></em>The consequences and risks of the global climate crisis are becoming increasingly obvious, many of which can be traced back to man-made climate change with ever better scientific evidence. Nevertheless, most governments are far from meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the role of the courts is becoming increasingly important on the road to more climate justice. This should protect fundamental right...
Die Abscheidung und Lagerung von CO2 wird zunehmend als Option im Rahmen einer Klimaschutzstrateg... more Die Abscheidung und Lagerung von CO2 wird zunehmend als Option im Rahmen einer Klimaschutzstrategie diskutiert. Wie sicher und wie wirksam ist diese Methode? Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf und Matthias Kalkuhl, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Berlin, machen deutlich, dass die Klimapolitik nur dann erfolgreich ist, wenn es gelingt, den Großteil des Bestandes fossiler Ressourcen nicht in die Atmosphäre gelangen zu lassen. Deshalb kann CCS auch nur dann eine Option für den Klimaschutz sein, wenn es einen ambitionierten Klimaschutz gibt: »Dieser ist jedoch nur möglich, wenn es in den nächsten zehn Jahren einen globalen Emissionshandel gibt, bei dem sich ein CO2-Preis ergibt, der die tatsächliche Knappheit des Deponieraums der Atmosphäre widerspiegelt.« CCS schaffe einen zeitlichen Spielraum, um einen globalen Emissionshandel aufzubauen und in die erneuerbaren Energien zu investieren. Es komme jetzt darauf an, durch Demonstrationsprojekte die technische Machbarkeit und die ökonomische Vorteilhaftigkeit zu zeigen. Für Bernhard Fischer, E.ON Energie AG, München, bietet die CO2-Abtrennung und Speicherung erfolgversprechende Ansätze. Die damit verbundenen Kosten und das Risiko, diese Technologien marktreif zu machen, seien allerdings erheblich. Deshalb solle die öffentliche Hand finanzielle Unterstützung bei den ersten Demonstrationsprojekten leisten. Manfred Treber und Christoph Bals, Germanwatch e.V., Bonn, unterstreichen, dass »zwar die einzelnen Bestandteile, jedoch noch nicht CCS als Gesamtkonzept den Test bestanden hat, dass es in industriellem Maßstab sicher einsatzfähig ist«. Es müsse vor allem sichergestellt werden, dass die abgetrennten CO2-Mengen dauerhaft sicher in tiefen geologischen Formationen gelagert werden können. Dann erst könne entschieden werden, ob CCS zum Erreichen der Klimaziele beitragen werde. Hans-Jochen Luhmann, Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, setzt sich vornehmlich mit CCS bei Kohlekraftwerken auseinander, die seiner Meinung nur »ein begrenztes und vor allem nur ein zeitlich befristetes Element einer Lösung des Klimaproblems« sind. Lehren aus der Finanzkrise: Was ist zu tun? Martin Schütte Im Augenblick konzentriert sich alles auf das Schnüren von kurzfristigen Finanzpaketen zum Abfedern der unmittelbaren Folgen der Finanzkrise. Nach Ansicht von Martin Schütte, Institut für Information, Organisation und Management an der Universität München, kommt eine sorgfältige Analyse, wie es zu der jetzigen Situation kommen konnte, und vor allem, welche Maßnahmen ergriffen werden müssen, damit nicht in Zukunft dasselbe passieren kann, zu kurz. In seinem Kommentar nennt er die seiner Meinung nach wesentlichen Gründe für die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise und entwickelt Vorschläge für geeignete Gegenmaßnahmen.
Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in D... more Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in December 2007. Given the accelerating threats of climate change in particular for developing countries, immediately increased adaptation efforts are needed. Now, after agreeing the Bali Roadmap with the objective to finalise a new in-ternational climate change agreement by 2009, it is time to assess the state of knowl-edge on key questions which arise from the Bali Roadmap. These include aspects like a streamlined definition of adaptation, the scale of, the responsibility for and the in-struments to generate increased funding, but also questions of decision-making struc-tures. The upcoming negotiations will have to address these questions, in addition to those related to mitigation efforts in order to avoid dangerous climate change. This briefing paper analyses the decisions taken in Bali and discusses relevant ques-tions with regard to adaptation for the upcoming negotations, starting wi...
If this conclusion is accepted, it would be clear that global warming has an impact on the intens... more If this conclusion is accepted, it would be clear that global warming has an impact on the intensity of hurricanes. Wrong Observations or wrong Theory? The debate is not, whether there exists a link between global warming and hurricane intensity at all, but whether it is really so unexpected strong as the observations from Emanuel, Webster, Sriver and Huver suggest. Doubtlessly, theory and computer models so far didn't support such a strong connection between global warming and hurricane intensity. Pielke argues that the global modelling studies suggest the potential for only relatively small changes in tropical cyclone intensities related to global warming. And as Landsea stated, according to theory and computer models the intensification by now should be only a sixth of what Webster and Emanuel have reported. Consequently, the current question is: are the observations, which support an anomalous strengthening trend of hurricane intensity wrong and a fiction, based on a deeply flawed hurricane record? Or are the theory and modelling wrong? As Emanuel puts it: "They tend to count [the anomalous strengthening] against observations. I count it against the theory, although I helped develop the theory." (Kerry, 2006). A new simulation from Kazuyoshi Oouchi et al. of the Advanced Earth Science and Technologiy Organisation in Yokohoma, Japan, runs on Japan's Earth Simulator, the world's most powerful supercomputer devoted to earth sciences. The result supports the idea, that improved modells could reconcile ones with the observations. Global climate models typically calculate climate at points of 200 kilometers or more apart. The resulting pictures of climate are to fuzzy to pick up anything as small as a tropical cyclone. But the Japanese group simulated the present climate and the warming climate near the end of the century at a resolution of just 20 kilometers, thanks to the Earth Simulator's power. That was detailed enough for tropical cyclones to appear in the model, allowing the researchers to roughly gauge their intensities. In fact, in the warmer world, the total number of storms over the globe had actually decreased by 30%. "But the number of the rarer category 3 and 4 storms had increased substantially, not unlike observational results" (Kerr, 2006). How Big is the Impact of Global Warming in Relation to the Natural Cycle? Pielke further argues that the relevance of global warming is exceedingly small in the context of, for example, the more than doubling in numbers of major hurricanes between quiet and active decadal periods in the Atlantic (Pielke, 2005, based on Goldenberg et al. 2001). Also the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated 2005 in press releases, that "longer-term climate change appears to be a minor factor" in "the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times". The surge in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 is the latest upswing in a natural cycle, the releases said: As the Atlantic Ocean warms and wind patterns shift, hurricanes increase for a decade or two until a lull sets in again (see Kerry, 2006). Christopher Landsea of the Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, recently claimed that NOAA public affairs staff members writing the press releases had overstated the case for natural cycle. The warming may well be largely human-induced, cited Kerr Landsea. (Kerr, 2006). As all ozeans basins show a warming of sea water surface, it seems very likely that it also plays a significant role in this case. Faust (2006) used the data provided from NOAA to show a remarkable increase of strong huricanes over time both in cold and warm phases since 1860. The new warm phase shows more intense hurricans than former the warm phase. The last cold phase showed more intense hurricans than the former one.
The Bali Action Plan specifically calls for “consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanism... more The Bali Action Plan specifically calls for “consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanisms, such as insurance ” as a means to address loss and damage in developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. This paper examines the case for insurance mechanisms by addressing two fundamental questions: whether climate insurance programs should be part of an international adaptation strategy, and if so, how? Our discussion suggests that there is a promising and legitimate role for insurance mechanisms in an adaptation regime. We draw this conclusion in full recognition that insurance is not appropriate in all contexts, and that it must be viewed as only part of a comprehensive risk-management program. The challenge becomes how developed countries can provide support to promote sustainable, affordable and incentive-compatible insurance programs for vulnerable households, SMEs and governments without crowding out private sector involvement. In meeting this challenge, th...
Das Klimaschutzabkommen von Paris kam aufgrund einer Vielzahl wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse übe... more Das Klimaschutzabkommen von Paris kam aufgrund einer Vielzahl wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse über die Ursachen des Klimawandels zustande. Die Bundesregierung hat sich in dem Abkommen von 2015 verpflichtet, die Treibhausgasemissionen (THG-Emissionen) Deutschlands erheblich zu verringern. Ausgangspunkt dieser POSITION ist die Einschätzung, dass trotz der bisher umgesetzten Maßnahmen und der bereits erreichten beachtlichen Erfolge bei der Verminderung von THG-Emissionen die angestrebten Ziele kaum erfüllt werden können. Ohne Einleitung weiterreichender Schritte führt die derzeitige Vorgehensweise aus heutiger Sicht zu einer deutlichen Verfehlung der eingegangenen Verpflichtungen.
Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in D... more Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in December 2007. Given the accelerating threats of climate change in par-ticular for developing countries, immediately increased adaptation efforts are needed. Now, after agreeing the Bali Roadmap with the objective to finalise a new interna-tional climate change agreement by no later 2009, it is time to assess the state of knowledge on key questions which arise from the Bali Roadmap. These include as-pects like a streamlined definition of adaptation, the scale of, the responsibility for and the instruments to generate increased funding, but also questions of decision-making structures. The upcoming negotiations will have to address these questions, in addition to those related to mitigation efforts in order to avoid dangerous climate change. This briefing paper analyses the decisions taken in Bali and discusses relevant ques-tions with regard to adaptation for the upcoming negotations, als...
* The underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency has been changed retros... more * The underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency has been changed retrospectively. That influences the comparability of the results between the different Index years. This year the data changes mostly affected Australia, China and Thailand.
Key developments: on the way to Paris, what has changed since Copenhagen? This year, the Climate ... more Key developments: on the way to Paris, what has changed since Copenhagen? This year, the Climate Change Performance Index shows a new “record” in global energy related CO2 emissions. Similar records have been reported almost every year since the Index was started ten years ago. In the coming years, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is also set to exceed the 400-ppm benchmark. Nevertheless, promising trends can also be reported. Both the rising emissions and a number of promising trends emphasize the need to reach an ambitious agreement at the COP21 in Paris. The new agreement should inspire confidence in investors and individuals alike to shift their investments to promote low and finally zero carbon emissions. Some of the developments that have taken place during the past five years highlight the differences in conditions before Copenhagen and raise hopes of reaching this agreement next year in Paris. 1. Emission growth rates are slowing and at the same time we can observe a global decoupling from CO2 emissions and GDP growth as well as from CO2 emissions and primary energy consumption. 2. The decoupling of emissions and primary energy consumption is in line with the rapidly developing renewable energy (RE) sector. 51 of the 58 Index states show a positive trend in the field of renewables and most have double-digit growth rates; the annual mean development of REs has shown a steady increase of about 15% over the last years (more than 16% in 2012). As part of this development, the price of REs is dropping rapidly and sometimes already outpaces that of fossil fuels. 3. The IPCC has made clear that four fifths of global fossil fuels need to stay in the ground and for the first time has published emission limits that must be observed in order to comply with the 2 °C guard rail. 4. In light of scientific studies, coal – as the number 1 top polluting energy source – must be phased out during the next decades if the target of remaining below the 2 °C threshold is to be reached. And climate change is only one factor contributing to the phasing out of coal. A number of politicians and investors have understood the circumstances and, as a result, for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the global coal industry finds itself on the defence. Anti-coal developments are now taking place in the world’s largest emitting countries: China and the US. In China, the Index data show declining growth rates of coal and a slow but steady decoupling of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions. About one third of Chinese provinces have already agreed to implement measures for a restriction of coal-fired power plants. And now, for the first time ever, China, in a joint public statement by its President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama, has named a date for an emissions peak. The US government has also given strong signals for a restrictive coal policy, both internally and externally. In addition, many development banks worldwide have fulfilled the announcements made last year and started to divest themselves of coal. This led to a wave of divestment that has already caused public debate. The joint declaration in November 2014 by the heads of state of the two largest emitters created the momentum for taking political action before Paris 2015. Now it is up to the EU to show its willingness to catch up and regain its former leading role in climate protection. Not only should all G20 countries announce their goals until spring, it is also up to them to act and to constantly adjust their goals to the challenge throughout the process. These promising political signs together with data showing, on the one hand, declining emission growth rates and, on the other, a decoupling of CO2 emissions from GDP and primary energy consumption suggests that a real and stable plateau of overall emissions could be within reach in the coming years. Paris could be a turning point in this respect. And we can report on yet another silver lining: Something exciting came up in this year’s CCPI: Denmark and Sweden surpassed their benchmark for the winner’s podium. At least for now, these countries are doing their share to keep the world below 2 °C warming. However, since one year does not make a trend, we will have to see what happens in the future to be sure that this development is not due to short-term weather conditions or other fluctuations. But, if this promising development continues throughout the next years, these countries may be awarded with the 1st and 2nd places of the Index. For now, the first three places remain unoccupied to remind countries of how much still remains to be done to successfully prevent the dangerous impacts of climate change
Nobody on the winners\u27 desk The Climate Change Performance Index 2009 shows: Policy must get i... more Nobody on the winners\u27 desk The Climate Change Performance Index 2009 shows: Policy must get in gear for the two degrees limit. Be they located top or bottom, the Climate Change Performance Index 2009, presented by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, shows that not a single country is to be judged as satisfactory with regard to protecting the climate. The specific criterion for this judgment is that, compared with 1990, no country is yet on the path that would be necessary to stay within the two degrees limit. The Climate Change Performance Index therefore does not have any winners this year. Due to the lack of will to engage themselves more strongly to avoid dangerous climate change, none of the countries achieved positions one to three. Position four to ten of this year are made up by Sweden, Germany, France, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Denmark. The other end of the index is to be taken note of as well. Especially Russia, the USA, Canada, and Austria have worrisome results. Crucially, they performed poorly in their current emissions level, emissions trend, and in the evaluation of their climate policy. In future editions of the index, a more positive rating regarding national and international policy could lead to a jump of the USA in the index, if the country really shows the kind of climate leadership announced by president elect Barack Obama
Extreme weather events are generally expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to globa... more Extreme weather events are generally expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. They have the potential to significantly undermine progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The Global Climate Risk Index 2008 analyses to what extent countries and country groups have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heatwaves etc.). These analyses are based on the well-known assessments of the Munich Re database NatCatSERVICE®. The figures for 2006 reveal that Asian countries dominate the ranking of the most affected countries (the Down10), while in the past decade hurricanes in the Caribbean region caused significant losses and deaths. In various respects, inter alia regarding the losses in relation to the GDP or deaths in relation to the population, less developed countries are affected more than industrialised countries. In terms of adaptation to climate change, it is important to note ...
Dear Reader, Our world is characterized by fast moving geopolitical and natural changes and the s... more Dear Reader, Our world is characterized by fast moving geopolitical and natural changes and the scenarios drawn by climate change specialists are alarming. If we want to avoid dangerous climate change and its ample consequences for creatures all over the world, it is necessary to take action right now. Awareness of the danger is growing and the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) keeps on working to bring it forward. Since 2005, the CCPI has been contributing to a clearer understanding of national and international climate policy. The various initial positions, interests, and strategies of the numerous countries make it hard to distinguish their strengths and weaknesses. The CCPI is an important tool to address this. To demonstrate existing measures more accurately and to encourage steps towards effective climate policy, the CCPI methodology was evaluated in 2012 and improvements have since been made. The integration of data on emissions from deforestation was one of the major s...
About the CCPI The Climate Change Performance Index is an instrument designed to enhance transpar... more About the CCPI The Climate Change Performance Index is an instrument designed to enhance transparency in international climate politics. Its aim is to put political and social pressure on those countries which have, up until now, failed to take ambitious action on climate protection. It also aims to highlight those countries with best-practice climate policies. On the basis of standardised criteria, the index evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 58 countries that are, together, responsible for more than 90% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. There are other countries with good or even higher climate protection performance, but due to methodological reasons, their inclusion is not possible. As the CCPI is mainly emissions based, countries with extremely low emissions simply cannot be taken into account. However it would be interesting to have a closer look on their climate protection efforts, since some of them are very proactive. After 7 years of publication, the CCPI has been thoroughly evaluated. This evaluation has had two major outcomes. Now, it has been possible to include emissions from deforestation, albeit not with the same quality of data as energyrelated emissions. The second achievement is a new structure and weighting of the individual indicators with a much stronger focus on renewable energy and efficiency as the most prominent mitigation strategies. Similar to last year, the average scores for national and international policies are weak. Most experts are not satisfied by far with the efforts of their governments with regard to the 2°C limit. The CCPI ranking is qualified in relative terms (better– worse) rather than absolute terms. Therefore, even those countries with high rankings have no reason to sit back and relax. On the contrary, the results illustrate that even if all countries were as involved as the current front runners, efforts would not yet be sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change. Hence, again this year, no country was awarded the rank of 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Since not only the CCPI methodology is in a continuous revision process, but also the underlying data that is provided by the International Energy Agency, it is important to notice there are retrospective changes that influence the comparability of the results between the different Index years. This year the data changes mostly affected Australia, China and Thailand
Key findings This year\u27s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) shows some interesting and wo... more Key findings This year\u27s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) shows some interesting and worrying results. As in the years before, we still cannot reward any country with the rankings 1-3, as no country is doing enough to prevent dangerous climate change. Sweden is back at the top and ranks 4th. This is especially due to their low emissions level and good emissions trend in some sectors (esp. housing sector). However, Swedish experts are criticising the Swedish climate policy as being not ambitious enough and insufficient with regard to the 2°C limit. The UK, ranked 5th, has shown strong elements of environmental leadership, but recently there have been worrying signs (e.g. ignoring recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change to tighten up the intervening carbon budgets) that the UK is stepping back from its efforts, which has kept them from achieving the top position. Brazil lost its top ranking because of increasing emissions. Also, the emissions from deforestation have increased since the end of 2010. Brazil would have received a worse ranking if the absolute emission indicators reflected not only energy, but also forest-related emissions. Germany’s new energy concept and a relatively good emissions trend resulted in a better evaluation of the national climate policy and, therefore, a climb from the seventh to the sixth rank. However, the emissions level in Germany is still too high for a top placement. Overall, mostly due to discouraging emissions levels and trends, the three lowest-ranking countries are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Iran. The US has climbed up two ranks mainly due to its reduction in emissions as a result of the economic crisis. However, the US remains at the bottom end of the index because of poor policy evaluations and a very high emissions level. India dropped 13 ranks because of a worse overall performance, especially because of a worse performance in the emissions trend. China’s climate performance is full of contradictions. While China (in absolute, not in per-capita terms) remains the world’s largest CO2 emitter with dramatically growing emissions (with a growing gap when comparing China with all other countries), the focus on national emissions reduction policy is rapidly intensifying through nationally binding energy-intensity reduction targets and a three-percent renewable-energy portfolio requirement. By now, China, which was previously considered a “nobody” in renewable energy production, is installing about half of the global renewable energy capacity per year. China’s position in the index will dramatically improve as soon as these positive trends will influence its emissions trend. One important factor for this years’ index is the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, which, as an unintended positive side effect, had a favourable influence on emissions trends of, e.g., Ireland and Spain, both of which climb up ten ranks in the Emissions Trend Indicator. The economic crisis also signified an opportunity for countries with high emissions levels to remodel their economies to include policies for a sustainable use of environmental regeneration. In order to include this development and bring the index up-to-date, a new indicator which measures the trend of CO2 per capita emissions from 2009 to 2010 is included in this year’s index. This indicator rewards countries for which the financial and economic crisis led not only to a dent in a continuously rising emissions trend, but which also contributed to further reductions in emissions during economic recovery. Australia has made encouraging steps towards improved climate policy. The experts recognized the new carbon tax as especially positive. Due to continuously high emissions, Australia remains in the last quarter of the CCPI. However, the latest emissions trend and the policy evaluation made Australia climb ten ranks and indicate that Australia has the ability to climb up in future rankings. Poor emissions trends and poor policy evaluations made the Netherlands lose twelve ranks. There are several leading countries in Europe, above all Sweden, UK and Germany. Here, performance rankings have increased during the last year. However, within Europe, countries such as Turkey, Poland and Croatia hold some of the lowest positions in the overall ranking. This is partly due to their policy evaluations. During its presidency of the European Council, Poland blocked the proposed EU’s 30 percent reduction target (until 2020). Within the first ten-ranking countries, Denmark improved its performance the most. This can be attributed to its improved national and international climate policy. It is especially worrying that the global trend towards burning coal (and oil from tar sands) has not been stopped. This is the main reason why we see emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) increasing in many countries. There is a robust trend towards increasing national renewable energy capacity. Especially China, the US and…
Climate policy - an \u27endangered species\u27? In this year again, none of the countries ranked ... more Climate policy - an \u27endangered species\u27? In this year again, none of the countries ranked in the index achieved the positions one to three; despite the high attention the issue of climate change has reached prior to the climate change summit in Copenhagen. None of the countries analysed is contributing sufficiently on a practical level to the goal to avoid dangerous climate change and keep global warming notably below the 2 degrees limit. It should be noted that more emerging economies are among the forerunners than in previous years. In addition to many European countries, Brazil, India and Mexico were able to place themselves in top positions. Yet, there is more to do to earn the best grade - Brazil, Sweden or the United Kingdom also still have a lot of catching-up to do. The index compares countries only with each other, and the first positions solely show that these countries perform better in terms of climate protection than others. No country is yet on the path to contribute adequately to avoiding dangerous climate change. Due to this lack of political will, this year again, positions one to three could not be awarded. So far, the index can only compare countries based on energy-induced emissions, therefore emissions resulting from land-use changes were not included. Brazil made big progress in reducing deforestation within the last months. However, it is not yet clear if this is a result due to a decreased demand of palm oil and soya from the current economic crisis. In regards to the emissions trend, Australia, China, Saudi Arabia and Austria in particular perform badly. Especially Saudi Arabia‘s performance in the Climate Change Performance Index contradicts the necessary level of climate protection: on the one hand, they are producing a high emissions level and a poor emissions trend. On the other hand, their representatives consistently obstructed the UN climate negotiations by, e.g., insisting on compensations for lost gains from oil sales, to be delivered through funds originally intended for the support of poor countries for adaptation measures. This led to an extremely negative policy evaluation. Looking at the emissions level of the ranked countries, the United States, Canada and Russia place very poorly. Even though the USA was able to improve several ranks in comparison to last year‘s results, the proof still needs to be furnished that the new climate policies of President Obama will also lead to reduced emissions and a leading international position on climate. The United Kingdom succeeded in passing a national climate policy act. Such a track may – if well done – lead to a constant emissions reduction and may help the UK to perform just as well next year. This is a vital component on the path to remain below the 2 degrees limit
Das Klima vor Gericht: Die Konsequenzen und Risiken der globalen Klimakrise werden immer deutlich... more Das Klima vor Gericht: Die Konsequenzen und Risiken der globalen Klimakrise werden immer deutlicher, viele davon können mit immer besserer wissenschaftlicher Evidenz auf den menschgemachten Klimawandel zurückgeführt werden. Dennoch sind die allermeisten Regierungen weit davon entfernt, die Ziele des Pariser Abkommens zu erfüllen. Daher wird die Rolle der Gerichte immer wichtiger auf dem Weg zu mehr Klimagerechtigkeit. Dies soll Grundrechte schützen und den Druck auf Politik und Unternehmen erhöhen. <em><strong>Climate Litigation: </strong></em>The consequences and risks of the global climate crisis are becoming increasingly obvious, many of which can be traced back to man-made climate change with ever better scientific evidence. Nevertheless, most governments are far from meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the role of the courts is becoming increasingly important on the road to more climate justice. This should protect fundamental right...
Die Abscheidung und Lagerung von CO2 wird zunehmend als Option im Rahmen einer Klimaschutzstrateg... more Die Abscheidung und Lagerung von CO2 wird zunehmend als Option im Rahmen einer Klimaschutzstrategie diskutiert. Wie sicher und wie wirksam ist diese Methode? Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf und Matthias Kalkuhl, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Berlin, machen deutlich, dass die Klimapolitik nur dann erfolgreich ist, wenn es gelingt, den Großteil des Bestandes fossiler Ressourcen nicht in die Atmosphäre gelangen zu lassen. Deshalb kann CCS auch nur dann eine Option für den Klimaschutz sein, wenn es einen ambitionierten Klimaschutz gibt: »Dieser ist jedoch nur möglich, wenn es in den nächsten zehn Jahren einen globalen Emissionshandel gibt, bei dem sich ein CO2-Preis ergibt, der die tatsächliche Knappheit des Deponieraums der Atmosphäre widerspiegelt.« CCS schaffe einen zeitlichen Spielraum, um einen globalen Emissionshandel aufzubauen und in die erneuerbaren Energien zu investieren. Es komme jetzt darauf an, durch Demonstrationsprojekte die technische Machbarkeit und die ökonomische Vorteilhaftigkeit zu zeigen. Für Bernhard Fischer, E.ON Energie AG, München, bietet die CO2-Abtrennung und Speicherung erfolgversprechende Ansätze. Die damit verbundenen Kosten und das Risiko, diese Technologien marktreif zu machen, seien allerdings erheblich. Deshalb solle die öffentliche Hand finanzielle Unterstützung bei den ersten Demonstrationsprojekten leisten. Manfred Treber und Christoph Bals, Germanwatch e.V., Bonn, unterstreichen, dass »zwar die einzelnen Bestandteile, jedoch noch nicht CCS als Gesamtkonzept den Test bestanden hat, dass es in industriellem Maßstab sicher einsatzfähig ist«. Es müsse vor allem sichergestellt werden, dass die abgetrennten CO2-Mengen dauerhaft sicher in tiefen geologischen Formationen gelagert werden können. Dann erst könne entschieden werden, ob CCS zum Erreichen der Klimaziele beitragen werde. Hans-Jochen Luhmann, Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, setzt sich vornehmlich mit CCS bei Kohlekraftwerken auseinander, die seiner Meinung nur »ein begrenztes und vor allem nur ein zeitlich befristetes Element einer Lösung des Klimaproblems« sind. Lehren aus der Finanzkrise: Was ist zu tun? Martin Schütte Im Augenblick konzentriert sich alles auf das Schnüren von kurzfristigen Finanzpaketen zum Abfedern der unmittelbaren Folgen der Finanzkrise. Nach Ansicht von Martin Schütte, Institut für Information, Organisation und Management an der Universität München, kommt eine sorgfältige Analyse, wie es zu der jetzigen Situation kommen konnte, und vor allem, welche Maßnahmen ergriffen werden müssen, damit nicht in Zukunft dasselbe passieren kann, zu kurz. In seinem Kommentar nennt er die seiner Meinung nach wesentlichen Gründe für die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise und entwickelt Vorschläge für geeignete Gegenmaßnahmen.
Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in D... more Adaptation to climate change featured very prominently during the Bali UN climate conference in December 2007. Given the accelerating threats of climate change in particular for developing countries, immediately increased adaptation efforts are needed. Now, after agreeing the Bali Roadmap with the objective to finalise a new in-ternational climate change agreement by 2009, it is time to assess the state of knowl-edge on key questions which arise from the Bali Roadmap. These include aspects like a streamlined definition of adaptation, the scale of, the responsibility for and the in-struments to generate increased funding, but also questions of decision-making struc-tures. The upcoming negotiations will have to address these questions, in addition to those related to mitigation efforts in order to avoid dangerous climate change. This briefing paper analyses the decisions taken in Bali and discusses relevant ques-tions with regard to adaptation for the upcoming negotations, starting wi...
If this conclusion is accepted, it would be clear that global warming has an impact on the intens... more If this conclusion is accepted, it would be clear that global warming has an impact on the intensity of hurricanes. Wrong Observations or wrong Theory? The debate is not, whether there exists a link between global warming and hurricane intensity at all, but whether it is really so unexpected strong as the observations from Emanuel, Webster, Sriver and Huver suggest. Doubtlessly, theory and computer models so far didn't support such a strong connection between global warming and hurricane intensity. Pielke argues that the global modelling studies suggest the potential for only relatively small changes in tropical cyclone intensities related to global warming. And as Landsea stated, according to theory and computer models the intensification by now should be only a sixth of what Webster and Emanuel have reported. Consequently, the current question is: are the observations, which support an anomalous strengthening trend of hurricane intensity wrong and a fiction, based on a deeply flawed hurricane record? Or are the theory and modelling wrong? As Emanuel puts it: "They tend to count [the anomalous strengthening] against observations. I count it against the theory, although I helped develop the theory." (Kerry, 2006). A new simulation from Kazuyoshi Oouchi et al. of the Advanced Earth Science and Technologiy Organisation in Yokohoma, Japan, runs on Japan's Earth Simulator, the world's most powerful supercomputer devoted to earth sciences. The result supports the idea, that improved modells could reconcile ones with the observations. Global climate models typically calculate climate at points of 200 kilometers or more apart. The resulting pictures of climate are to fuzzy to pick up anything as small as a tropical cyclone. But the Japanese group simulated the present climate and the warming climate near the end of the century at a resolution of just 20 kilometers, thanks to the Earth Simulator's power. That was detailed enough for tropical cyclones to appear in the model, allowing the researchers to roughly gauge their intensities. In fact, in the warmer world, the total number of storms over the globe had actually decreased by 30%. "But the number of the rarer category 3 and 4 storms had increased substantially, not unlike observational results" (Kerr, 2006). How Big is the Impact of Global Warming in Relation to the Natural Cycle? Pielke further argues that the relevance of global warming is exceedingly small in the context of, for example, the more than doubling in numbers of major hurricanes between quiet and active decadal periods in the Atlantic (Pielke, 2005, based on Goldenberg et al. 2001). Also the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated 2005 in press releases, that "longer-term climate change appears to be a minor factor" in "the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times". The surge in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 is the latest upswing in a natural cycle, the releases said: As the Atlantic Ocean warms and wind patterns shift, hurricanes increase for a decade or two until a lull sets in again (see Kerry, 2006). Christopher Landsea of the Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, recently claimed that NOAA public affairs staff members writing the press releases had overstated the case for natural cycle. The warming may well be largely human-induced, cited Kerr Landsea. (Kerr, 2006). As all ozeans basins show a warming of sea water surface, it seems very likely that it also plays a significant role in this case. Faust (2006) used the data provided from NOAA to show a remarkable increase of strong huricanes over time both in cold and warm phases since 1860. The new warm phase shows more intense hurricans than former the warm phase. The last cold phase showed more intense hurricans than the former one.
The Bali Action Plan specifically calls for “consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanism... more The Bali Action Plan specifically calls for “consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanisms, such as insurance ” as a means to address loss and damage in developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. This paper examines the case for insurance mechanisms by addressing two fundamental questions: whether climate insurance programs should be part of an international adaptation strategy, and if so, how? Our discussion suggests that there is a promising and legitimate role for insurance mechanisms in an adaptation regime. We draw this conclusion in full recognition that insurance is not appropriate in all contexts, and that it must be viewed as only part of a comprehensive risk-management program. The challenge becomes how developed countries can provide support to promote sustainable, affordable and incentive-compatible insurance programs for vulnerable households, SMEs and governments without crowding out private sector involvement. In meeting this challenge, th...
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