Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with th... more Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with that of statistics. Many of the controversies in parapsychology have focused on statistical issues, and statistical models have played an integral role in the experimental work. Recently, parapsychologists have been using meta-analysis as a tool for synthesizing large bodies of work. This paper presents an overview of the use of statistics in parapsychology and offers a summary of the meta-analyses that have been conducted. It begins with some anecdotal information about the involvement of statistics and statisticians with the early history of parapsychology. Next, it is argued that most nonstatisticians do not appreciate the connection between power and "successful" replication of experimental effects. Returning to parapsychology, a particular experimental regime is examined by summarizing an extended debate over the interpretation of the results. A new set of experiments designed to resolve the debate is then reviewed. Finally, meta-analyses from several areas of parapsychology are summarized. It is concluded that the overall evidence indicates that there is an anomalous effect in need of an explanation.
Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with th... more Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with that of statistics. Many of the controversies in parapsychology have focused on statistical issues, and statistical models have played an integral role in the experimental work. Recently, parapsychologists have been using meta-analysis as a tool for synthesizing large bodies of work. This paper presents an overview of the use of statistics in parapsychology and offers a summary of the meta-analyses that have been conducted. It begins with some anecdotal information about the involvement of statistics and statisticians with the early history of parapsychology. Next, it is argued that most nonstatisticians do not appreciate the connection between power and "successful" replication of experimental effects. Returning to parapsychology, a particular experimental regime is examined by summarizing an extended debate over the interpretation of the results. A new set of experiments designed to resolve the debate is then reviewed. Finally, meta-analyses from several areas of parapsychology are summarized. It is concluded that the overall evidence indicates that there is an anomalous effect in need of an explanation.
What is statistics? We attempt to answer this question as it relates to grounding research in sta... more What is statistics? We attempt to answer this question as it relates to grounding research in statistics education. We discuss the nature of statistics as the science of learning from data, its history and traditions, what characterizes statistical thinking and how it differs from mathematics, connections with computing and data science, why learning statistics is essential, and what is most important. Finally, we attempt to gaze into the future, drawing upon what is known about the fast-growing demand for statistical skills and the portents of where the discipline is heading, especially those arising from data science and the promises and problems of big data.
In searching for a model that will demonstrate how aptitude and instructional systems can interac... more In searching for a model that will demonstrate how aptitude and instructional systems can interact, educators have traditionally used analysis of variance (AOV). This usually results in a loss of information, since most aptitude measures are continuous (such as IQ) and AOV ...
Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tres... more Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio's (2010) meta-analysis is supported only by a number of studies that used manual randomization, and (b) when these studies are excluded so that only investigations using automatic randomization are evaluated (and some additional studies previously omitted by Storm et al., 2010, are included), the evidence for psi is "unpersuasive." Rouder et al. used a Bayesian approach, and we adopted the same methodology, finding that our case is upheld. Because of recent updates and corrections, we reassessed the free-response databases of Storm et al. using a frequentist approach. We discuss and critique the assumptions and findings of Rouder et al.
Aims: We sought to determine if the frequency of reported physical or emotional premenstrual symp... more Aims: We sought to determine if the frequency of reported physical or emotional premenstrual symptoms (PMSx) was associated with (1) dietary intake of phytoestrogens, fiber, fat, or calcium, (2) consumption of alcohol or caffeine, (3) active or passive smoke exposure or lack of physical exercise, and (4) race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of PMSx and demographic and lifestyle factors reported at baseline in the multiethnic sample of 3302 midlife women in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN). Stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses were performed for the overall sample and for each racial/ethnic group for each of five PMSx groupings. Results: Most dietary factors were not related to PMSx. Fat intake was negatively associated with craving and bloating (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] ؍ 0.56, p ؍ 0.024), and fiber intake was positively associated with breast pain (AOR ؍ 1.39, p ؍ 0.037). Alcohol intake was negatively associated with anxiety and mood changes (AOR ؍ 0.63, p ؍ 0.045) and headaches (AOR ؍ 0.50, p ؍ 0.009). Current smoking (AOR ؍ 1.60, p ؍ 0.028) and passive smoke exposure (AOR ϭ 1.56, p ϭ 0.050) were positively associated with cramps and back pain. Symptom reporting differed significantly by race/ethnicity. PMSx were also associated with comorbidities, early perimenopausal status, depressive symptoms, and symptom sensitivity.
This meta-analysis of 26 reports published between 1978 and 2010 tests an unusual hypothesis: for... more This meta-analysis of 26 reports published between 1978 and 2010 tests an unusual hypothesis: for stimuli of two or more types that are presented in an order designed to be unpredictable and that produce different post-stimulus physiological activity, the direction of pre-stimulus physiological activity reflects the direction of post-stimulus physiological activity, resulting in an unexplained anticipatory effect. The reports we examined used one of two paradigms: (1) randomly ordered presentations of arousing vs. neutral stimuli, or (2) guessing tasks with feedback (correct vs. incorrect). Dependent variables included: electrodermal activity, heart rate, blood volume, pupil dilation, electroencephalographic activity, and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) activity.To avoid including data hand-picked from multiple different analyses, no post hoc experiments were considered. The results reveal a significant overall effect with a small effect size [fixed effect: overall ES = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.15-0.27, z = 6.9, p < 2.7 × 10 −12 ; random effects: overall (weighted) ES = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.13-0.29, z = 5.3, p < 5.7 × 10 −8 ]. Higher quality experiments produced a quantitatively larger effect size and a greater level of significance than lower quality studies. The number of contrary unpublished reports that would be necessary to reduce the level of significance to chance (p > 0.05) was conservatively calculated to be 87 reports. We explore alternative explanations and examine the potential linkage between this unexplained anticipatory activity and other results demonstrating meaningful pre-stimulus activity preceding behaviorally relevant events.We conclude that to further examine this currently unexplained anticipatory activity, multiple replications arising from different laboratories using the same methods are necessary. The cause of this anticipatory activity, which undoubtedly lies within the realm of natural physical processes (as opposed to supernatural or paranormal ones), remains to be determined.
Findings in parapsychology suggest an effect of distant intentionality. Two laboratory setups exp... more Findings in parapsychology suggest an effect of distant intentionality. Two laboratory setups explored this topic by measuring the effect of a distant intention on psychophysiological variables. The 'Direct Mental Interaction in Living Systems' experiment investigates the effect of various intentions on the electrodermal activity of a remote subject. The 'Remote Staring' experiment examines whether gazing by an observer covaries with the electrodermal activity of the person being observed. Two meta-analyses were conducted. A small significant effect size ðd ¼ :11; p ¼ :001Þ was found in 36 studies on 'direct mental interaction', while a best-evidence-synthesis of 7 studies yielded d ¼ :05 ð p ¼ :50Þ: In 15 remote staring studies a mean effect size of d ¼ 0:13 ðp ¼ :01Þ was obtained. It is concluded that there are hints of an effect, but also a shortage of independent replications and theoretical concepts.
Bayes/frequentist correspondences between the p-value and the posterior probability of the null h... more Bayes/frequentist correspondences between the p-value and the posterior probability of the null hypothesis have been studied in univariate hypothesis testing situations. This paper extends these comparisons to multiple testing and in particular to the Bonferroni multiple testing method, in which p-values are adjusted by multiplying by k, the number of tests considered. In the Bayesian setting, prior assessments may need to be adjusted to account for multiple hypotheses, resulting in corresponding adjustments to the posterior probabilities. Conditions are given for which the adjusted posterior probabilities roughly correspond to Bonferroni adjusted p-values.
INTRODUCTION May, Utts, and Spottiswoode (1995) proposed decision augmentation theory (DAT) as a ... more INTRODUCTION May, Utts, and Spottiswoode (1995) proposed decision augmentation theory (DAT) as a general model of anomalous mental phenomena.(1) DAT holds that anomalous cognition information is included along with the usual inputs that result in a final human decision that favors a "desired" outcome. In statistical parlance, DAT says that a slight, systematic bias is introduced into the decision process by anomalous cognition. This concept has the advantage of being quite general. We know of no experiment that is devoid of at least one human decision; thus, DAT might be the underlying basis for anomalous mental phenomena. May et al. (1995) mathematically developed this concept and constructed a retrospective test algorithm that can be applied to existing databases. In this paper, we summarize the theoretical predictions of DAT, review the criteria for valid retrospective tests, and analyze the historical random number generator (RNG) database. In addition, we summarize th...
Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with th... more Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with that of statistics. Many of the controversies in parapsychology have focused on statistical issues, and statistical models have played an integral role in the experimental work. Recently, parapsychologists have been using meta-analysis as a tool for synthesizing large bodies of work. This paper presents an overview of the use of statistics in parapsychology and offers a summary of the meta-analyses that have been conducted. It begins with some anecdotal information about the involvement of statistics and statisticians with the early history of parapsychology. Next, it is argued that most nonstatisticians do not appreciate the connection between power and "successful" replication of experimental effects. Returning to parapsychology, a particular experimental regime is examined by summarizing an extended debate over the interpretation of the results. A new set of experiments designed to resolve the debate is then reviewed. Finally, meta-analyses from several areas of parapsychology are summarized. It is concluded that the overall evidence indicates that there is an anomalous effect in need of an explanation.
Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with th... more Parapsychology, the laboratory study of psychic phenomena, has had its history interwoven with that of statistics. Many of the controversies in parapsychology have focused on statistical issues, and statistical models have played an integral role in the experimental work. Recently, parapsychologists have been using meta-analysis as a tool for synthesizing large bodies of work. This paper presents an overview of the use of statistics in parapsychology and offers a summary of the meta-analyses that have been conducted. It begins with some anecdotal information about the involvement of statistics and statisticians with the early history of parapsychology. Next, it is argued that most nonstatisticians do not appreciate the connection between power and "successful" replication of experimental effects. Returning to parapsychology, a particular experimental regime is examined by summarizing an extended debate over the interpretation of the results. A new set of experiments designed to resolve the debate is then reviewed. Finally, meta-analyses from several areas of parapsychology are summarized. It is concluded that the overall evidence indicates that there is an anomalous effect in need of an explanation.
What is statistics? We attempt to answer this question as it relates to grounding research in sta... more What is statistics? We attempt to answer this question as it relates to grounding research in statistics education. We discuss the nature of statistics as the science of learning from data, its history and traditions, what characterizes statistical thinking and how it differs from mathematics, connections with computing and data science, why learning statistics is essential, and what is most important. Finally, we attempt to gaze into the future, drawing upon what is known about the fast-growing demand for statistical skills and the portents of where the discipline is heading, especially those arising from data science and the promises and problems of big data.
In searching for a model that will demonstrate how aptitude and instructional systems can interac... more In searching for a model that will demonstrate how aptitude and instructional systems can interact, educators have traditionally used analysis of variance (AOV). This usually results in a loss of information, since most aptitude measures are continuous (such as IQ) and AOV ...
Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tres... more Rouder, Morey, and Province (2013) stated that (a) the evidence-based case for psi in Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio's (2010) meta-analysis is supported only by a number of studies that used manual randomization, and (b) when these studies are excluded so that only investigations using automatic randomization are evaluated (and some additional studies previously omitted by Storm et al., 2010, are included), the evidence for psi is "unpersuasive." Rouder et al. used a Bayesian approach, and we adopted the same methodology, finding that our case is upheld. Because of recent updates and corrections, we reassessed the free-response databases of Storm et al. using a frequentist approach. We discuss and critique the assumptions and findings of Rouder et al.
Aims: We sought to determine if the frequency of reported physical or emotional premenstrual symp... more Aims: We sought to determine if the frequency of reported physical or emotional premenstrual symptoms (PMSx) was associated with (1) dietary intake of phytoestrogens, fiber, fat, or calcium, (2) consumption of alcohol or caffeine, (3) active or passive smoke exposure or lack of physical exercise, and (4) race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of PMSx and demographic and lifestyle factors reported at baseline in the multiethnic sample of 3302 midlife women in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN). Stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses were performed for the overall sample and for each racial/ethnic group for each of five PMSx groupings. Results: Most dietary factors were not related to PMSx. Fat intake was negatively associated with craving and bloating (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] ؍ 0.56, p ؍ 0.024), and fiber intake was positively associated with breast pain (AOR ؍ 1.39, p ؍ 0.037). Alcohol intake was negatively associated with anxiety and mood changes (AOR ؍ 0.63, p ؍ 0.045) and headaches (AOR ؍ 0.50, p ؍ 0.009). Current smoking (AOR ؍ 1.60, p ؍ 0.028) and passive smoke exposure (AOR ϭ 1.56, p ϭ 0.050) were positively associated with cramps and back pain. Symptom reporting differed significantly by race/ethnicity. PMSx were also associated with comorbidities, early perimenopausal status, depressive symptoms, and symptom sensitivity.
This meta-analysis of 26 reports published between 1978 and 2010 tests an unusual hypothesis: for... more This meta-analysis of 26 reports published between 1978 and 2010 tests an unusual hypothesis: for stimuli of two or more types that are presented in an order designed to be unpredictable and that produce different post-stimulus physiological activity, the direction of pre-stimulus physiological activity reflects the direction of post-stimulus physiological activity, resulting in an unexplained anticipatory effect. The reports we examined used one of two paradigms: (1) randomly ordered presentations of arousing vs. neutral stimuli, or (2) guessing tasks with feedback (correct vs. incorrect). Dependent variables included: electrodermal activity, heart rate, blood volume, pupil dilation, electroencephalographic activity, and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) activity.To avoid including data hand-picked from multiple different analyses, no post hoc experiments were considered. The results reveal a significant overall effect with a small effect size [fixed effect: overall ES = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.15-0.27, z = 6.9, p < 2.7 × 10 −12 ; random effects: overall (weighted) ES = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.13-0.29, z = 5.3, p < 5.7 × 10 −8 ]. Higher quality experiments produced a quantitatively larger effect size and a greater level of significance than lower quality studies. The number of contrary unpublished reports that would be necessary to reduce the level of significance to chance (p > 0.05) was conservatively calculated to be 87 reports. We explore alternative explanations and examine the potential linkage between this unexplained anticipatory activity and other results demonstrating meaningful pre-stimulus activity preceding behaviorally relevant events.We conclude that to further examine this currently unexplained anticipatory activity, multiple replications arising from different laboratories using the same methods are necessary. The cause of this anticipatory activity, which undoubtedly lies within the realm of natural physical processes (as opposed to supernatural or paranormal ones), remains to be determined.
Findings in parapsychology suggest an effect of distant intentionality. Two laboratory setups exp... more Findings in parapsychology suggest an effect of distant intentionality. Two laboratory setups explored this topic by measuring the effect of a distant intention on psychophysiological variables. The 'Direct Mental Interaction in Living Systems' experiment investigates the effect of various intentions on the electrodermal activity of a remote subject. The 'Remote Staring' experiment examines whether gazing by an observer covaries with the electrodermal activity of the person being observed. Two meta-analyses were conducted. A small significant effect size ðd ¼ :11; p ¼ :001Þ was found in 36 studies on 'direct mental interaction', while a best-evidence-synthesis of 7 studies yielded d ¼ :05 ð p ¼ :50Þ: In 15 remote staring studies a mean effect size of d ¼ 0:13 ðp ¼ :01Þ was obtained. It is concluded that there are hints of an effect, but also a shortage of independent replications and theoretical concepts.
Bayes/frequentist correspondences between the p-value and the posterior probability of the null h... more Bayes/frequentist correspondences between the p-value and the posterior probability of the null hypothesis have been studied in univariate hypothesis testing situations. This paper extends these comparisons to multiple testing and in particular to the Bonferroni multiple testing method, in which p-values are adjusted by multiplying by k, the number of tests considered. In the Bayesian setting, prior assessments may need to be adjusted to account for multiple hypotheses, resulting in corresponding adjustments to the posterior probabilities. Conditions are given for which the adjusted posterior probabilities roughly correspond to Bonferroni adjusted p-values.
INTRODUCTION May, Utts, and Spottiswoode (1995) proposed decision augmentation theory (DAT) as a ... more INTRODUCTION May, Utts, and Spottiswoode (1995) proposed decision augmentation theory (DAT) as a general model of anomalous mental phenomena.(1) DAT holds that anomalous cognition information is included along with the usual inputs that result in a final human decision that favors a "desired" outcome. In statistical parlance, DAT says that a slight, systematic bias is introduced into the decision process by anomalous cognition. This concept has the advantage of being quite general. We know of no experiment that is devoid of at least one human decision; thus, DAT might be the underlying basis for anomalous mental phenomena. May et al. (1995) mathematically developed this concept and constructed a retrospective test algorithm that can be applied to existing databases. In this paper, we summarize the theoretical predictions of DAT, review the criteria for valid retrospective tests, and analyze the historical random number generator (RNG) database. In addition, we summarize th...
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