Papers by Joanna Sooknanan
Public health, May 1, 2024
Frontiers in public health, Feb 15, 2024
Widespread crime has become a worldwide problem so much so that violence is now ranked fourth glo... more Widespread crime has become a worldwide problem so much so that violence is now ranked fourth globally in its contribution to disability-adjusted life years in the 10 to 24 age group. Homicides, a surrogate marker of violent crime, have shown an upward trend in almost all of the CARICOM countries, and homicide rates over the past 3 years have consistently increased, though the pattern of violence varies by country. This background has informed the need for greater emphasis on the need for a different approach to dealing with crime in the CARICOM region. The CARICOM governments recently hosted a symposium on crime and violence as a public health issue. The public health approach to crime has been used with measurable success in different parts of the world and, more recently in Trinidad, one of the CARICOM countries. The paper outlines the outcomes of the symposium and discusses its implications for the region.
Teaching Mathematics and Its Applications, Feb 7, 2023
The COVID-19 public health emergency has been characterized by an abundance of data in the form o... more The COVID-19 public health emergency has been characterized by an abundance of data in the form of numbers and charts. Although these data are readily available, there have been challenges associated with their interpretation—exacerbated by generally low numeracy rates. Consequently, people may underestimate the speed at which the disease spreads and the ensuing risk to themselves and others, resulting in a lack of compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions. This article discusses misconceptions associated with the popular terms, metrics and graphs commonly used to describe this pandemic. We suggest and illustrate how mathematical literacy is necessary to understand and convince people of the necessity for various restrictions and lifestyle changes. As the pandemic progresses and in anticipation of any future outbreaks, it is important to rethink the teaching of these concepts so as to equip learners with the proper tools for informed decision making—now and in the future.
Socio-economic Planning Sciences, Sep 1, 2018
Applied Mathematics and Computation
Abstract—We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, ... more Abstract—We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit the usual theoretical approach of incorporating a fictitious viscoelastic stress term into the flux equation. As a result, we obtain a model that captures the essence of the phenomenon of trapping skinning, while preserving the integrity of the experimentally verified Fickian law for diffusion. An appropriate asymptotic analysis is carried out, and a parameter is introduced to represent the speed of the desorption front. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the desorption dynamics of the model. Recommendations are made for future modifications of the model, and provisions are made for the inclusion of experimentally determined frontal speeds.
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2017
Mathematical models are useful weapons in the crime-fighting arsenal. With the development of che... more Mathematical models are useful weapons in the crime-fighting arsenal. With the development of cheaper and more powerful computers, mathematical modelling of systems representing some aspect of crime or criminal behaviour and the analysis of the resulting numerical solutions is becoming more popular. Models may be and numerical simulation via the computer must be used to determine their approximate solutions. These solutions may be in the form of graphs showing the system’s behaviour over time as well as its sensitivity to variations in key model parameters. Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of systems have once again resulted in a friendship of sorts between used to guide decision-making, develop policies or to evaluate specific strategies aimed at reducing crime. This review provides an introduction to some relatively recent mathematical models of crime.
Teaching Mathematics and its Applications: An International Journal of the IMA
The COVID-19 public health emergency has been characterized by an abundance of data in the form o... more The COVID-19 public health emergency has been characterized by an abundance of data in the form of numbers and charts. Although these data are readily available, there have been challenges associated with their interpretation—exacerbated by generally low numeracy rates. Consequently, people may underestimate the speed at which the disease spreads and the ensuing risk to themselves and others, resulting in a lack of compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions. This article discusses misconceptions associated with the popular terms, metrics and graphs commonly used to describe this pandemic. We suggest and illustrate how mathematical literacy is necessary to understand and convince people of the necessity for various restrictions and lifestyle changes. As the pandemic progresses and in anticipation of any future outbreaks, it is important to rethink the teaching of these concepts so as to equip learners with the proper tools for informed decision making—now and in the future.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2020
Social media plays an important role in alerting and educating the public during disease outbreak... more Social media plays an important role in alerting and educating the public during disease outbreaks. By increasing awareness of the disease and its prevention, it can lead to a modification of behaviour which then affects contact/incidence rates. Social media data may also be used when formulating, developing and parameterising models. As mobile technology continues to evolve and proliferate, social media is expected to occupy an increasingly prominent role in the field of infectious disease modelling to improve their predictive power. This article presents a review of existing models incorporating media in general and highlights opportunities for social media to enhance traditional compartmental models so as to make the best use of this resource in controlling the spread of disease.
West Indian Medical Journal, 2017
Royal Society Open Science, 2016
A modified predator–prey model with transmissible disease in both the predator and prey species i... more A modified predator–prey model with transmissible disease in both the predator and prey species is proposed and analysed, with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation and infected predators hunting at a reduced rate. Here, the predators are the police and the prey the gang members. In this system, we examine whether police control of gangs is possible. The system is analysed with the help of stability analyses and numerical simulations. The system has five steady states—four of which involve no core gang members and one in which all the populations coexist. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator and prey populations survive and when the disease remains endemic. For parameter values where the spread of disease among the police officers is greater than the death of the police officers, the diseased predator population survives, when it would otherwise become extinct.
CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research - Zenodo, Mar 25, 2009
We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit t... more We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit the usual theoretical approach of incorporating a fictitious viscoelastic stress term into the flux equation. As a result, we obtain a model that captures the essence of the phenomenon of trapping skinning, while preserving the integrity of the experimentally verified Fickian law for diffusion. An appropriate asymptotic analysis is carried out, and a parameter is introduced to represent the speed of the desorption front. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the desorption dynamics of the model. Recommendations are made for future modifications of the model, and provisions are made for the inclusion of experimentally determined frontal speeds.
International Journal of Dynamics and Control, 2018
Optimal control is a powerful optimization technique derived from the mathematical theory of the ... more Optimal control is a powerful optimization technique derived from the mathematical theory of the Calculus of Variations. It can be employed to maximize the returns from and minimize the costs associated with physical, social, and economic processes. In recent years, optimal control theory has been utilized to develop ideal intervention strategies for a variety of "contagious" social ailments that are spread chiefly by contact with affected peers-like crime, substance abuse and the rampant infiltration of internet worms and viruses in computerized systems. As the dynamics of these processes are akin to that of an epidemic, the compartmental models utilized for studying the spread of infectious diseases can be easily adapted for these types of problems. In this article, we review the use of optimal control theory in the design of cost effective intervention strategies for the successful mitigation of social contagion processes.
International Journal of Dynamics and Control
Mathematical models played in a major role in guiding policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandem... more Mathematical models played in a major role in guiding policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. These models while focusing on the spread and containment of the disease, largely ignored the impact of media on the disease transmission. Media plays a major role in shaping opinions, attitudes and perspectives and as the number of people online increases, online media are fast becoming a major source for news and health related information and advice. Consequently, they may influence behavior and in due course disease dynamics. Unlike traditional media, online media are themselves driven and influenced by their users and thus have unique features. The main techniques used to incorporate online media mathematically into compartmental models, with particular reference to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are reviewed. In doing so, features specific to online media that have yet to be fully integrated into compartmental models such as misinformation, different time scales with regards to disease transmission and information, time delays, information super spreaders, the predatory nature of online media and other factors are identified together with recommendations for their incorporation.
Journal of Mathematics Research, 2012
A mathematical model is formulated and analysed to study the dynamics of a one predator-two prey ... more A mathematical model is formulated and analysed to study the dynamics of a one predator-two prey ecosystem using the logistic equation in which the predator switches between habitats and is being harvested. Constant effort and Constant yield harvesting functions are applied to the predators. The Constant effort strategy as opposed constant yield strategy may lead to an additional equilibrium in which the predators are extinct, whereas in the Constant yield stategy the only equilibrium is the coexistence one. In both cases, computer simulations are performed to study the effects of various parameters on the dynamics of the system. These studies show that depending on parameter values, a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle orbit is possible with both harvesing types.
Journal of Mathematics Research, 2012
There is increasing gang membership worldwide, but few mathematical models are available describi... more There is increasing gang membership worldwide, but few mathematical models are available describing the growth of gangs in a population. A mathematical model consisting of a system of four coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to divide a population into four groups based on gang affiliation. Demographics and vertical transmission are included in the model. One of the main findings of this research is the conditions under which the gang members become extinct. Bifurcation analyses shows the existence of "tipping points" in the murder rates, gang recruitment rates and the imprisonment and deterrence rates.
In this study, criminal gang membership is treated as an infection that spreads through a communi... more In this study, criminal gang membership is treated as an infection that spreads through a community by interactions among gang members and the population. A mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to describe this spread and to suggest control mechanisms to minimize this infection. The analysis shows the existence of three equilibrium states-two of which contain no gang members. When parameters such as recruitment, conviction and recidivism rates and longer jail sentences are varied, the greatest reduction occurs by changing the parameters in combination. A bifurcation analysis shows transcritical bifurcations and no hopf bifurcations.
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Papers by Joanna Sooknanan