Timing a multinational firm's entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term i... more Timing a multinational firm's entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term impact on the firm's overall performance; thus, a deeper understanding of the drivers of the decision and their interrelationship can yield significant managerial benefits. The authors explore the mediating role of market potential by decomposing the total effects of the decision's main drivers—macroeconomic attractiveness, market concentration, social heterogeneity, and population density—into direct and indirect effects. These decompositions explain the countervailing effects of some drivers that simultaneously make both positive and negative impacts. The data set encompasses mobile 4G broadband penetration in 130 countries, including market entry timings for 28 international operators in 79 countries. The authors establish the nature of the mediation effect of market potential on the drivers of entry timing. Using early penetration data, they utilize growth mixture modeling to ...
Abstract An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation... more Abstract An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation of mobile telephony benefits numerous agents including suppliers of network and consumer equipment, regulators, and network planners. We consider the estimation and prediction of the time interval between the international introduction of a generation of mobile telephony and its introduction into a specific country when a decision maker judges the introduction of a newer technology a worthwhile investment. Using literature-based socio-economic and geographical variables, we examine how well variation in international introduction times of four generations of mobile telephony in 172 countries can be explained and forecast. We model and forecast introduction times at two levels of granularity: we use Cox's proportional hazards model for the introduction time; we partition countries into introduction time-based segments and model segment membership using multinomial logistic regression. Our modelling of each generation considers three subsets of explanatory variables: All variables, socio-economic Covariates only, Regional dummies only. Over successive generations, the Covariates only models reveal the changing relevance of each socio-economic covariate. Model-based forecasting of the introduction time of the next generation is performed under three hypotheses making different uses of the information available at the time the relevant generation is launched internationally. However, changing socio-economic environments coupled with changing models impair forecasting accuracy, the lower accuracy of modelled introduction times is concentrated in 20% of countries. We speculate about the nature of the unobserved factors affecting these countries' decision processes.
ABSTRACT Venture capital is a means of financing the growth of companies with a technologically i... more ABSTRACT Venture capital is a means of financing the growth of companies with a technologically innovative product, the investor's objective is the realisation of capital gains on the sale of his shareholding. The history of venture capital in the US and the UK is examined. After attracting great interest in the late 1960s and early 1970s, activity in the venture capital field has declined significantly. The reasons for this decline are analysed and it is suggested that a recovery of interest is unlikely.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Sep 1, 1993
... d(index, k, t) = Ej w(i)d (i, k, t) (4) 948 Page 5. Jonathan SH Kornbluth et al. -Bond Index ... more ... d(index, k, t) = Ej w(i)d (i, k, t) (4) 948 Page 5. Jonathan SH Kornbluth et al. -Bond Index Funds: A Duration Approach Consider the goal programming problem: minZ (d+ + dk7) k subject to 43 (i) >j x(i)d(i, k, t) + dk -dk = d(index,k, t) k= 1 ... r 43 (5) (ii) Ex(i) = l. 43 43 ...
The problem considered is the selection of a portfolio of international assets, particularly the ... more The problem considered is the selection of a portfolio of international assets, particularly the forecasting of the inputs to a selection algorithm. Four models of the asset return generating process are considered, two of which ignore the international nature of the universe of assets, two which exploit it in different ways. Several estimation methods are considered for each component: expected return, variance and covariance of returns. The combinations of model and estimation method are first evaluated in terms of their forecasting performance for the components mentioned for the individual assets. The universe used is the components of the Financial Times Eurotrack 100 Index. Significant differences were found between the forecasting accuracy of the methods considered for each component. In the final stage of the analysis, a comparison of the returns on portfolios chosen using each combination showed a significant difference. The analysis suggests that the choice of estimation method is more critical than the choice of pricing model.
The hypothesis that foreign exchange rate behaviour is non-linear has been examined by several au... more The hypothesis that foreign exchange rate behaviour is non-linear has been examined by several authors; others have proposed a linear framework. Here, evidence for a non-linear generating process is evaluated by an analysis of the comparative accuracy of short term forecasts of FX rates. Forecasts were generated by a linear AR-GARCH model and four non-linear methods, including three nearest neighbour
The primary objective of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the increasingly... more The primary objective of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the increasingly wide range of growth curve models. Seventeen models are used to forecast the development of telecommunications markets, represented by 25 time series describing telephone ...
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Dec 1, 1985
... Curves An Adaptive Approach NIGEL MEADE Department of Management Science, Imperial College, L... more ... Curves An Adaptive Approach NIGEL MEADE Department of Management Science, Imperial College, London ... (3) In each case, X, is a cumulative measure (market penetration, for example), a is the asymptotic saturation level, and a, b, c > 0. Gregg et al. ...
The literature shows a substantial portion of momentum profits come from illiquid investments and... more The literature shows a substantial portion of momentum profits come from illiquid investments and short-selling, entailing abnormal transaction costs. Concentrating on liquid long-only investments, we investigate momentum using index out-performance portfolio selection (via a modified Sortino ratio) from universes defined by 11 S&P international equity indices. The probability a stock out-performed its index for n weeks, conditional on out-performance during
Timing a multinational firm's entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term i... more Timing a multinational firm's entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term impact on the firm's overall performance; thus, a deeper understanding of the drivers of the decision and their interrelationship can yield significant managerial benefits. The authors explore the mediating role of market potential by decomposing the total effects of the decision's main drivers—macroeconomic attractiveness, market concentration, social heterogeneity, and population density—into direct and indirect effects. These decompositions explain the countervailing effects of some drivers that simultaneously make both positive and negative impacts. The data set encompasses mobile 4G broadband penetration in 130 countries, including market entry timings for 28 international operators in 79 countries. The authors establish the nature of the mediation effect of market potential on the drivers of entry timing. Using early penetration data, they utilize growth mixture modeling to ...
Abstract An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation... more Abstract An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation of mobile telephony benefits numerous agents including suppliers of network and consumer equipment, regulators, and network planners. We consider the estimation and prediction of the time interval between the international introduction of a generation of mobile telephony and its introduction into a specific country when a decision maker judges the introduction of a newer technology a worthwhile investment. Using literature-based socio-economic and geographical variables, we examine how well variation in international introduction times of four generations of mobile telephony in 172 countries can be explained and forecast. We model and forecast introduction times at two levels of granularity: we use Cox's proportional hazards model for the introduction time; we partition countries into introduction time-based segments and model segment membership using multinomial logistic regression. Our modelling of each generation considers three subsets of explanatory variables: All variables, socio-economic Covariates only, Regional dummies only. Over successive generations, the Covariates only models reveal the changing relevance of each socio-economic covariate. Model-based forecasting of the introduction time of the next generation is performed under three hypotheses making different uses of the information available at the time the relevant generation is launched internationally. However, changing socio-economic environments coupled with changing models impair forecasting accuracy, the lower accuracy of modelled introduction times is concentrated in 20% of countries. We speculate about the nature of the unobserved factors affecting these countries' decision processes.
ABSTRACT Venture capital is a means of financing the growth of companies with a technologically i... more ABSTRACT Venture capital is a means of financing the growth of companies with a technologically innovative product, the investor's objective is the realisation of capital gains on the sale of his shareholding. The history of venture capital in the US and the UK is examined. After attracting great interest in the late 1960s and early 1970s, activity in the venture capital field has declined significantly. The reasons for this decline are analysed and it is suggested that a recovery of interest is unlikely.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Sep 1, 1993
... d(index, k, t) = Ej w(i)d (i, k, t) (4) 948 Page 5. Jonathan SH Kornbluth et al. -Bond Index ... more ... d(index, k, t) = Ej w(i)d (i, k, t) (4) 948 Page 5. Jonathan SH Kornbluth et al. -Bond Index Funds: A Duration Approach Consider the goal programming problem: minZ (d+ + dk7) k subject to 43 (i) >j x(i)d(i, k, t) + dk -dk = d(index,k, t) k= 1 ... r 43 (5) (ii) Ex(i) = l. 43 43 ...
The problem considered is the selection of a portfolio of international assets, particularly the ... more The problem considered is the selection of a portfolio of international assets, particularly the forecasting of the inputs to a selection algorithm. Four models of the asset return generating process are considered, two of which ignore the international nature of the universe of assets, two which exploit it in different ways. Several estimation methods are considered for each component: expected return, variance and covariance of returns. The combinations of model and estimation method are first evaluated in terms of their forecasting performance for the components mentioned for the individual assets. The universe used is the components of the Financial Times Eurotrack 100 Index. Significant differences were found between the forecasting accuracy of the methods considered for each component. In the final stage of the analysis, a comparison of the returns on portfolios chosen using each combination showed a significant difference. The analysis suggests that the choice of estimation method is more critical than the choice of pricing model.
The hypothesis that foreign exchange rate behaviour is non-linear has been examined by several au... more The hypothesis that foreign exchange rate behaviour is non-linear has been examined by several authors; others have proposed a linear framework. Here, evidence for a non-linear generating process is evaluated by an analysis of the comparative accuracy of short term forecasts of FX rates. Forecasts were generated by a linear AR-GARCH model and four non-linear methods, including three nearest neighbour
The primary objective of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the increasingly... more The primary objective of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the increasingly wide range of growth curve models. Seventeen models are used to forecast the development of telecommunications markets, represented by 25 time series describing telephone ...
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Dec 1, 1985
... Curves An Adaptive Approach NIGEL MEADE Department of Management Science, Imperial College, L... more ... Curves An Adaptive Approach NIGEL MEADE Department of Management Science, Imperial College, London ... (3) In each case, X, is a cumulative measure (market penetration, for example), a is the asymptotic saturation level, and a, b, c > 0. Gregg et al. ...
The literature shows a substantial portion of momentum profits come from illiquid investments and... more The literature shows a substantial portion of momentum profits come from illiquid investments and short-selling, entailing abnormal transaction costs. Concentrating on liquid long-only investments, we investigate momentum using index out-performance portfolio selection (via a modified Sortino ratio) from universes defined by 11 S&P international equity indices. The probability a stock out-performed its index for n weeks, conditional on out-performance during
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Papers by Nigel Meade