Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1999
An essential tenet of the new urbanism is that existing as well as new activity centers of metrop... more An essential tenet of the new urbanism is that existing as well as new activity centers of metropolitan regions should be developed to higher densities and a greater mix of uses. New urbanism suggests that if centers with different commercial functions are numerous and linked by high-quality transit service, people will significantly reduce their use of automobiles for both commuting and nonwork travel. Working against this ideal of transit-oriented development (TOD) as an organizing concept for urban design are strong market and socioeconomic forces that have created the current highly variegated commercial structure characteristic of urbanized areas in the United States. Results are reported of a preliminary exploration of retail industry decision making, consumer behavior, economic trends, and other key factors that have shaped the retail environment of metropolitan areas over the past 50 years. Well-known human motivations such as bargain hunting, comparison shopping, and variet...
As described by Grush and Niles in their textbook, The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and... more As described by Grush and Niles in their textbook, The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles, there are two distinct market states for the future of automobility as vehicles become increasingly automated. The first, Market-1, is comprised of all vehicles that are manufactured and sold to private owners and used as household vehicles. This private consumer fleet will—through automated driver assistance systems (ADAS)—be increasingly capable of hands-off operation, even self-driving in certain environments such as limited-access expressways. The second category, Market-2, represents all the vehicles made expressly for the service market, i.e., roboshuttles and robotaxis, meant to be eventually driverless in prepared, defined areas and streets. Ford, GM, Lyft, Uber, Waymo, and dozens of other companies assert that they are preparing vehicles for Market-2. The main thesis in this perspective is that a productive, efficient system of on...
We examine the relative impact of increased housing vs. increased parking availability on ridersh... more We examine the relative impact of increased housing vs. increased parking availability on ridership of public transit. The approach sheds light on the trade-off in alternative land uses near transit stops: park-and-ride (PnR) vs. transit-oriented development (TOD). In the example of one city studied here, econometric analysis suggests that PnR provides more transit ridership than housing. However, the transit agency may choose the alternative of reducing PnR and partnering with housing developers as a source of new non-fare revenue that creates vibrant, walkable growth in station areas, which is considered to be just as important as ridership.
The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to... more The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to design a planning template for transit-oriented development (TOD) that incorporates an understanding of nonwork travel, that is, trips for shopping, eating out, and engaging in recreational and cultural activities. Nonwork trips are growing in signifigance and now account for four of every five trips. At the same time, TOD has become a popular planning response to the impacts of metropolitan growth. Some planners believe that TOD will induce more pedestrian and transit trips and will reduce the average length and frequency of household auto travel. This effect is assumed to result from improved accessibility to employment and nonwork venues located in compact, mixed-use centers. Planning professionals in many MPOs also suggest that if multiple centers are linked by high quality transit, such as light or heavy rail, access is enabled to the broad range of nonwork activities. The project arrived at these essential findings: (1) Venues for nonwork activities are very numerous and geographically dispersed. (2) The spatial environment for nonwork activities is the result of growing prosperity, technical innovation, and a dynamic, competitive marketplace. (3) The consumer marketplace will provide many more places to go than mass transit can cost-effectively serve. (4) Current metropolitan planning methods and modeling tools focus on the work trip and do not adequately account for the complexity of nonwork trips and their linkage to work trips. These findings support the need for a new regional planning process to complement current methods. One recommended approach is that metropolitan communities establish a Nonwork Travel Improvement Planning Process using a multidisciplinary expert advisory group interacting with a core, Internet-enabled, professional transportation planning staff. An iterative interaction across varied but relevant skill sets could be achieved through a Backcasting Delphi process. The focus of the interaction would be on understanding the ramifications of consumer and retail industry behavior for TOD and other new transportation strategies, and then assessing the available strategies for cost-effectiveness in reducing the impacts of growth and automobility in a complex and uncertain metropolitan market.
Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 ... more Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 and dropped significantly further after the pandemic began. A sharp downward step in the level of transit boarding occurred after February 2020, and continues to the date of this report as a result of the public-health guidance on social distancing, expanded work-at-home, and a travel mode shift from public transit to private cars. A critical issue has come to the foreground of public transportation policy, namely, how to increase the quality and geographic reach of transit service to better serve the essential trips of mobility disadvantaged citizens who do not have access to private vehicle travel. The research focus of this report is an examination of the circumstances where fixed route bus route service could cost-effectively be replaced by on-demand microtransit, with equivalent overall zone-level efficiency and a higher quality of complete trip service. Research methods were review...
Despite the sharp drop in transit ridership throughout the USA that began in March 2020, two diff... more Despite the sharp drop in transit ridership throughout the USA that began in March 2020, two different uses of land near transit stations continue to be implemented in the United States to promote ridership. Since 2010, transit agencies have given priority to multi-family residential construction referred to as transit oriented development (TOD), with an emphasis on housing affordability. In second place for urban planners but popular with suburban commuters is free or inexpensive parking near rail or bus transit centers, known as park-and-ride (PnR). Sometimes, TOD and PnR are combined in the same development. Public policy seeks to gain high community value from both of these land uses, and there is public interest in understanding the circumstances and locations where one of these two uses should be emphasized over the other. Multiple justifications for each are offered in the professional literature and reviewed in this report. Fundamental to the strategic decision making necess...
The economic forecasting and policy analysis tool used for this research was developed by Regiona... more The economic forecasting and policy analysis tool used for this research was developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI). The REMI Model is a dynamic, multi-region economic simulation model that encompasses input-output relationships, calibrated to regional data for user-designated regions. For this project, the researchers designated four regions: Madera County, Fresno County, Merced County, and the Rest-of-California.
In order to save time and money by not driving to an ultimate destination, some urban commuters d... more In order to save time and money by not driving to an ultimate destination, some urban commuters drive themselves a few miles to specially designated parking lots built for transit customers and located where trains or buses stop. The focus of this paper is the effect Park-and-Ride (P&R) lots have on the efficiency of bus transit as measured in five bus transit systems in the western U.S. This study describes a series of probes with models and data to find objective P&R influence measures that, when combined with other readily-available data, permit a quantitative assessment of the significance of P&R on transit efficiency. The authors developed and describe techniques that examine P&R as an influence on transit boardings at bus stops and on bus boardings along an entire route. The regression results reported are based on the two in-depth case studies for which sufficient data were obtained to examine (using econometric techniques) the effects of park-and-ride availability on bus tra...
Transit-oriented development (TOD) has become the dominant urban growth planning paradigm in the ... more Transit-oriented development (TOD) has become the dominant urban growth planning paradigm in the United States. Yet scant evidence has been proffered to indicate that it will produce significant environmental and social benefits commensurate with the costs of the major transportation system improvements that it requires. Sixteen distinct planning issues will determine whether TOD significantly changes travel behavior in a metropolitan region. While some analysis exists, understanding of these issues needs improvement. In particular, more research is needed on non-work travel, retail market dynamics, and the likely constraints this $2.3 trillion area of business and human behavior imposes on TOD.
Transportation system investments that are costly and have a long intended life are risky if deci... more Transportation system investments that are costly and have a long intended life are risky if decision-makers shape those investments in response to inaccurate forecasts about the future travel environment. Historically, many forecasts have turned out to be wrong on the basic determinants of future travel patterns, including population, employment, household activity, spatial development, and government policy outcomes. Uncertainty and risk in forecasting travel demand result from the complexity of the urban system and its evolution. Nevertheless, one can identify and analyze a set of discrete factors that are likely to have a significant effect on mobility in the future. These factors stem from technological invention, product innovation, and marketplace transformation, all primary features of the urban environment. Many of the factors can be thought of as vectors that have both spatial direction and magnitude with respect to changing travel demand. Examples of factors working in di...
Conventional wisdom holds that suburban public transportation officials need to wage war against ... more Conventional wisdom holds that suburban public transportation officials need to wage war against the American love affair with the automobile. A new, more constructive wisdom presented here suggests that public transportation officials try to create an Intelligent Vehicle Highway System (IVHS) application that exploits that love affair. Computerized message processing and portable wireless telecommunications permit the creation of a new mode of public transportation, called here Intelligent High Occupancy Vehicle, or IHOV. This mode combines a high-tech instant rideshare request system with incentives for drivers to invite passengers into their otherwise single-occupant vehicles (SOVs). Flexible single-trip carpooling occurs as opportunities present themselves in the matching system that are safe and convenient for both driver and potential passenger. Phone calls to a friendly computer, which processes voice messages and other information, let people find other people who are also a...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1999
An essential tenet of the new urbanism is that existing as well as new activity centers of metrop... more An essential tenet of the new urbanism is that existing as well as new activity centers of metropolitan regions should be developed to higher densities and a greater mix of uses. New urbanism suggests that if centers with different commercial functions are numerous and linked by high-quality transit service, people will significantly reduce their use of automobiles for both commuting and nonwork travel. Working against this ideal of transit-oriented development (TOD) as an organizing concept for urban design are strong market and socioeconomic forces that have created the current highly variegated commercial structure characteristic of urbanized areas in the United States. Results are reported of a preliminary exploration of retail industry decision making, consumer behavior, economic trends, and other key factors that have shaped the retail environment of metropolitan areas over the past 50 years. Well-known human motivations such as bargain hunting, comparison shopping, and variet...
As described by Grush and Niles in their textbook, The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and... more As described by Grush and Niles in their textbook, The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles, there are two distinct market states for the future of automobility as vehicles become increasingly automated. The first, Market-1, is comprised of all vehicles that are manufactured and sold to private owners and used as household vehicles. This private consumer fleet will—through automated driver assistance systems (ADAS)—be increasingly capable of hands-off operation, even self-driving in certain environments such as limited-access expressways. The second category, Market-2, represents all the vehicles made expressly for the service market, i.e., roboshuttles and robotaxis, meant to be eventually driverless in prepared, defined areas and streets. Ford, GM, Lyft, Uber, Waymo, and dozens of other companies assert that they are preparing vehicles for Market-2. The main thesis in this perspective is that a productive, efficient system of on...
We examine the relative impact of increased housing vs. increased parking availability on ridersh... more We examine the relative impact of increased housing vs. increased parking availability on ridership of public transit. The approach sheds light on the trade-off in alternative land uses near transit stops: park-and-ride (PnR) vs. transit-oriented development (TOD). In the example of one city studied here, econometric analysis suggests that PnR provides more transit ridership than housing. However, the transit agency may choose the alternative of reducing PnR and partnering with housing developers as a source of new non-fare revenue that creates vibrant, walkable growth in station areas, which is considered to be just as important as ridership.
The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to... more The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to design a planning template for transit-oriented development (TOD) that incorporates an understanding of nonwork travel, that is, trips for shopping, eating out, and engaging in recreational and cultural activities. Nonwork trips are growing in signifigance and now account for four of every five trips. At the same time, TOD has become a popular planning response to the impacts of metropolitan growth. Some planners believe that TOD will induce more pedestrian and transit trips and will reduce the average length and frequency of household auto travel. This effect is assumed to result from improved accessibility to employment and nonwork venues located in compact, mixed-use centers. Planning professionals in many MPOs also suggest that if multiple centers are linked by high quality transit, such as light or heavy rail, access is enabled to the broad range of nonwork activities. The project arrived at these essential findings: (1) Venues for nonwork activities are very numerous and geographically dispersed. (2) The spatial environment for nonwork activities is the result of growing prosperity, technical innovation, and a dynamic, competitive marketplace. (3) The consumer marketplace will provide many more places to go than mass transit can cost-effectively serve. (4) Current metropolitan planning methods and modeling tools focus on the work trip and do not adequately account for the complexity of nonwork trips and their linkage to work trips. These findings support the need for a new regional planning process to complement current methods. One recommended approach is that metropolitan communities establish a Nonwork Travel Improvement Planning Process using a multidisciplinary expert advisory group interacting with a core, Internet-enabled, professional transportation planning staff. An iterative interaction across varied but relevant skill sets could be achieved through a Backcasting Delphi process. The focus of the interaction would be on understanding the ramifications of consumer and retail industry behavior for TOD and other new transportation strategies, and then assessing the available strategies for cost-effectiveness in reducing the impacts of growth and automobility in a complex and uncertain metropolitan market.
Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 ... more Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 and dropped significantly further after the pandemic began. A sharp downward step in the level of transit boarding occurred after February 2020, and continues to the date of this report as a result of the public-health guidance on social distancing, expanded work-at-home, and a travel mode shift from public transit to private cars. A critical issue has come to the foreground of public transportation policy, namely, how to increase the quality and geographic reach of transit service to better serve the essential trips of mobility disadvantaged citizens who do not have access to private vehicle travel. The research focus of this report is an examination of the circumstances where fixed route bus route service could cost-effectively be replaced by on-demand microtransit, with equivalent overall zone-level efficiency and a higher quality of complete trip service. Research methods were review...
Despite the sharp drop in transit ridership throughout the USA that began in March 2020, two diff... more Despite the sharp drop in transit ridership throughout the USA that began in March 2020, two different uses of land near transit stations continue to be implemented in the United States to promote ridership. Since 2010, transit agencies have given priority to multi-family residential construction referred to as transit oriented development (TOD), with an emphasis on housing affordability. In second place for urban planners but popular with suburban commuters is free or inexpensive parking near rail or bus transit centers, known as park-and-ride (PnR). Sometimes, TOD and PnR are combined in the same development. Public policy seeks to gain high community value from both of these land uses, and there is public interest in understanding the circumstances and locations where one of these two uses should be emphasized over the other. Multiple justifications for each are offered in the professional literature and reviewed in this report. Fundamental to the strategic decision making necess...
The economic forecasting and policy analysis tool used for this research was developed by Regiona... more The economic forecasting and policy analysis tool used for this research was developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI). The REMI Model is a dynamic, multi-region economic simulation model that encompasses input-output relationships, calibrated to regional data for user-designated regions. For this project, the researchers designated four regions: Madera County, Fresno County, Merced County, and the Rest-of-California.
In order to save time and money by not driving to an ultimate destination, some urban commuters d... more In order to save time and money by not driving to an ultimate destination, some urban commuters drive themselves a few miles to specially designated parking lots built for transit customers and located where trains or buses stop. The focus of this paper is the effect Park-and-Ride (P&R) lots have on the efficiency of bus transit as measured in five bus transit systems in the western U.S. This study describes a series of probes with models and data to find objective P&R influence measures that, when combined with other readily-available data, permit a quantitative assessment of the significance of P&R on transit efficiency. The authors developed and describe techniques that examine P&R as an influence on transit boardings at bus stops and on bus boardings along an entire route. The regression results reported are based on the two in-depth case studies for which sufficient data were obtained to examine (using econometric techniques) the effects of park-and-ride availability on bus tra...
Transit-oriented development (TOD) has become the dominant urban growth planning paradigm in the ... more Transit-oriented development (TOD) has become the dominant urban growth planning paradigm in the United States. Yet scant evidence has been proffered to indicate that it will produce significant environmental and social benefits commensurate with the costs of the major transportation system improvements that it requires. Sixteen distinct planning issues will determine whether TOD significantly changes travel behavior in a metropolitan region. While some analysis exists, understanding of these issues needs improvement. In particular, more research is needed on non-work travel, retail market dynamics, and the likely constraints this $2.3 trillion area of business and human behavior imposes on TOD.
Transportation system investments that are costly and have a long intended life are risky if deci... more Transportation system investments that are costly and have a long intended life are risky if decision-makers shape those investments in response to inaccurate forecasts about the future travel environment. Historically, many forecasts have turned out to be wrong on the basic determinants of future travel patterns, including population, employment, household activity, spatial development, and government policy outcomes. Uncertainty and risk in forecasting travel demand result from the complexity of the urban system and its evolution. Nevertheless, one can identify and analyze a set of discrete factors that are likely to have a significant effect on mobility in the future. These factors stem from technological invention, product innovation, and marketplace transformation, all primary features of the urban environment. Many of the factors can be thought of as vectors that have both spatial direction and magnitude with respect to changing travel demand. Examples of factors working in di...
Conventional wisdom holds that suburban public transportation officials need to wage war against ... more Conventional wisdom holds that suburban public transportation officials need to wage war against the American love affair with the automobile. A new, more constructive wisdom presented here suggests that public transportation officials try to create an Intelligent Vehicle Highway System (IVHS) application that exploits that love affair. Computerized message processing and portable wireless telecommunications permit the creation of a new mode of public transportation, called here Intelligent High Occupancy Vehicle, or IHOV. This mode combines a high-tech instant rideshare request system with incentives for drivers to invite passengers into their otherwise single-occupant vehicles (SOVs). Flexible single-trip carpooling occurs as opportunities present themselves in the matching system that are safe and convenient for both driver and potential passenger. Phone calls to a friendly computer, which processes voice messages and other information, let people find other people who are also a...
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