Papers by Agus Eko Nugroho
This study shows that a link exists between the weaknesses in the banking sector, economic fundam... more This study shows that a link exists between the weaknesses in the banking sector, economic fundamentals and the rapid depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate. The weakness in the banking sector was strongly associated with the number of insolvent banks and the rise in foreign liabilities of the banking sector in the pre-crisis period. The increase in the ratio of trade deficit to GDP and the rise in the domestic and foreign interest rate differential largely contributed to the deterioration in the Indonesian economic fundamentals during 1990-1998. Somewhat surprisingly, the interaction variable between the ratio of foreign reserves to imports and the foreign and domestic interest rate is statistically significant. This finding implies that the impact of the change in the ratio of foreign reserves to imports on the change in the rupiah exchange rate is moderated by the magnitude of the foreign and domestic interest rate differential. Similarly, the change in the rupiah exchange rate resulting from a change in the foreign and domestic interest rate differential is moderated by the value of the ratio of foreign reserves to imports. Finally, the dummy variable used to capture the effect of a change in the policy of exchange rate regime shows that the abandonment of the pegged exchange rate regime led to the rapid depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate.
Substansi dari naskah kebijakan ini esensinya untuk menjawab pertanyaan pokok: bagaimana tingkat ... more Substansi dari naskah kebijakan ini esensinya untuk menjawab pertanyaan pokok: bagaimana tingkat kesiapan IMK dalam mengadopsi teknologi maju berbasis digital adalam rangka memperkuat produktivitas dan daya saingnya kedepan? Kesiapan ini ditinjau dari kapasitas IMK dari satu sisi, dan dukungan Pemda terhadap IMK pada sisi lain, dalam mengadopsi teknologi yang lebih maju. Hasil penelitian Tim Ekonomi Digital PRE-BRIN menemukan lima permasalahan utama yang dihadapi IMK dalam mengadopsi teknologi maju yaitu: (1) Rendahnya pemahaman IMK terhadap teknologi digital; (2) Keterbatasan jenis mesin dan peralatan produksi IMK; (3) Keterbatasan SDM IMK dalam mengadopsi teknologi digital; (4) Kesulitan IMK dalam aspek pembiayaan; (5) Rendahnya kualitas jaringan dan kemampuan IMK dalam menggunakan internet. Sementara itu, penelitian tersebut juga menemukan masih lemahnya dukungan Pemda kepada IMK dalam upaya meningkatkan produktivitas dan daya saingnya melalui penguatan teknologi. Berdasarkan pem...
LIPI PRESS, Nov 19, 2015
Pada tahun 2015, sektor pariwisata Indonesia menghadapi persaingan yang lebih ketat. Sesama negar... more Pada tahun 2015, sektor pariwisata Indonesia menghadapi persaingan yang lebih ketat. Sesama negara anggota ASEAN yang terintegrasi dalam masyarakat ekonomi ASEAN memiliki tujuan agar wisatawan dimudahkan dalam melakukan perjalanan wisata ke negara - negara ASEAN. Hal ini diharapkan dapat berdampak terhadap perekonomian di ASEAN. oleh karena itu, peran Pemerintah Indonesia menjadi sangat vital, khususnya dalam pemberian kebijakan yang memadai bagi sektor pariwisata. Selain itu, dibahas juga mengenai kondisi kepariwisataan Indonesia dibandingkan nehara - negara di ASEAN lainnya, baik bagi pemerintah, masyarakat, maupun pihak - pihak lain yang terjkait sehingga dapa memberikan kontribusi bagi pengembangan sektor pariwisata di Indonesia
The theory of exchange rate determination clearly links a depreciating currency to a deterioratin... more The theory of exchange rate determination clearly links a depreciating currency to a deteriorating trade balance, interest differential and related economic fundamentals. Empirical testing carried out routinely confirms these relationships in "normal" times as currencies constantly align themselves to find their places in the global marketplace. When depreciation reaches crisis proportions, they are not always caused by a proportional deterioration in economic fundamentals. Random activities like speculative attacks are prompted by perceived problems in the banking sector as well as the contagion effect, leading to a currency crisis. Using pre crisis data and focusing on the Indonesian rupiah, this view is confirmed in the research.
Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2004
A sound banking liquidity management is vital for both banking practices as well as the banking a... more A sound banking liquidity management is vital for both banking practices as well as the banking authority because the presence of liquidity mismatch of banks has resulted in weakening depositors’ confidence towards the financial condition of banks, leading to a banking panic. A sound liquidity management is essential for an effective monetary policy since it provides a basis for the stability of the banking and financial system. For this reason, this study aims at investigating the determinants affecting the change in the funding volatility of Indonesian banks. Incorporating monetary and banking variables, the dynamic error correction model (ECM) of this study concludes that the change in the real interest rate, the Jakarta stock price index, capital-to-asset ratio and the number of banks significantly contribute to the change in the funding volatility of banks during the period under review. The policy implication of lowering the risks of funding volatility of Indonesian banks is t...
Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2011
This paper examines the welfare impact of microfinance on rural hoiiseholds in four villages of B... more This paper examines the welfare impact of microfinance on rural hoiiseholds in four villages of Boyolali, Indonesia. It is found that access to microfinance services of formal microfinance institutions (MFIs), such as micro banks, contribute to higher levels of child education, greater confidence in dealing with others, and reducing the probability of facing household financial problems. This is the case as the disbursement of loans helps to finance education-related expenditures of children. The utilization of loans for productive purposes has the potential to increase income, leading to greater self-confidence in dealing with others. Similarly, greater incomes resulting from loans can also enhance the capability to cope with risk and vulnerability and hence, reduce the likelihood of facing financial distress. However, borrowing from moneylenders has little welfare impacts on rural households. Access to loans from moneylenders cannot reduce the probability of having financial difft...
Pemilu Serentak 2019 merupakan pemilu kelima yang dilaksanakan pada era transisi demokrasi, sekal... more Pemilu Serentak 2019 merupakan pemilu kelima yang dilaksanakan pada era transisi demokrasi, sekaligus pengalaman pertama bagi bangsa Indonesia melaksanakan pemilu legislatif bersamaan dengan pemilu presiden-wakil presiden. Keberhasilan pelaksanan pemilu tentu saja tidak dapat dilepaskan dari kesiapan kondisi pemangku kepentingan (stakeholders) di segala bidang, khususnya bidang politik, hukum, ekonomi, sosial budaya dan keamanan. Namun, masih banyak persoalan yang muncul dan berpotensi mengancam pelaksanaan pemilu demokratis. Oleh karena itu, pemetaan kondisi lintas bidang menjelang pelaksanaan Pemilu Serentak 2019 perlu dilakukan untuk menghasilkan gambaran utuh terkait dengan peta kondisi stakeholders. Kondisi politik, hukum, ekonomi, sosial budaya dan keamanan yang relatif baik dan stabil mendukung pelaksanaan pemilu yang demokratis. Bertolak dari kondisi tersebut di atas, bunga rampai ini mengkaji dinamika sosial dan politik yang terjadi menjelang Pemilu Serentak 2019. Data diku...
Penulis : Agus E. Nugroho, Latif Adam, Bahtiar Rifai, Rita Pawestri, Tuti Ermawati, Yeni Septia, ... more Penulis : Agus E. Nugroho, Latif Adam, Bahtiar Rifai, Rita Pawestri, Tuti Ermawati, Yeni Septia, Chitra Indah YulianaEditor : Agus Eko Nugroho Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) merupakan program pemerintah yang telah dilaksanakan sejak tahun 2007. Tujuannya yaitu untuk meningkatkan akses usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM) yang secara operasional layak (feasible), tetapi belum bankable terhadap kredit perbankan. Selain itu, program tersebut juga bertujuan memperluas kesempatan kerja dalam rangka penanggulangan kemiskinan. Dalam perjalanannya, penyaluran kredit program KUR kepada UMKM tidaklah mudah. Salah satunya adanya kekhawatiran pihak perbankan bahwa UMKM tidak dapat melunasi kredit. Lalu bagaimana langkah pemerintah sebagai otoritas pembuat kebijakan dalam menyikapi permasalahan itu? Tentunya ini berkaitan dengan pihak perbankan sebagai penyalur program tersebut. Meski demikian, Program KUR ini merupakan wujud nyata upaya Pemerintah Indonesia dalam mendorong pengembangan UMKM melal...
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 2015
Literatur meyebutkan bahwa metode kredit mikro secara kelompok (group lending method) dapat megha... more Literatur meyebutkan bahwa metode kredit mikro secara kelompok (group lending method) dapat meghasilkan tingkat pengembalian yang tinggi karena berfungsinya modal social (social capital), seperti kekerabatan dan kerja-sama antar anggota kelompok, serta adanya sangsi kelompok (peer sanctions). Studi ini mengidentifikasi keterkaitan antara modal sosial dan keuangan mikro di Indonesia. Ada dua kesimpulan yang dapat diambil. Pertama, metode kredit secara kelompok di Indonesia masih jauh dari memuaskan karena kecilnya skala operasional. Disamping perkembankan kredit kelompok di Indonesia juga masih tergantung pada keberadaan subsidi dari pemerintah maupun lembaga donor lainnya. Kedua, kredit mikro yang mendasarkan pada modal sosial tidak harus mrenggunakan metode kredit kelompok. Kredit mikro yang diberikan secara individual, seperti BRI unit desa dan BKK, menunjukan perkembangan yang baik karena mengaitkan kredit dengan modal-modal sosial di masyarakat. Dalam hal ini kredit mikro yang d...
The paper aims to analyse the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on microfinance institutions (MFIs... more The paper aims to analyse the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on microfinance institutions (MFIs) and identify mitigation and adaptation measures to cope with the situation. An online survey and focus group discussions were employed to capture how far the COVID-19 pandemic affects MFIs’ business. The results show that MFIs’ performance is negatively affected due to the COVID-19 crisis as their major customers, micro and small enterprises (MSEs), have experienced a contraction. MFIs have implemented several mitigation and adaptation measures to cope with the situation and future shocks. These results provide an overview of how far the COVID-19 crisis affects MFIs which can help the government design policies that can support MFIs and MSEs to survive. However, some issues related to methodology, such as the inability to capture complex and profound information, survey monitoring, and response rate, influenced the analysis so that the research may lack generalizability. Thus, a more h...
This study investigates various government programs within ten ministries/institutions that imple... more This study investigates various government programs within ten ministries/institutions that implement the programs for employment creation and skills improvement for the poor and vulnerable in Indonesia. The methodology used in the study is based on qualitative analysis, emphasizing the relevance, affectivity, sustainability and impact of the programs on job creation and skills improvement for the poor and vulnerable. The study has reviewed 35 programs encompassing 182 activities and 293 sub-activities. From these programs, ten most relevant programs are selected for further analysis in terms of their implementation and potential impact on job creation and skills improvement for the poor/vulnerable. The two main conclusions are raised in the study. Firstly, the ten programs investigated are relevant in terms of having a potential to create long- term employment and improve skills for the poor/vulnerable. Yet, most programs have not specified key performance indicators (KPI). Secondl...
Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2015
Tuberculosis can occur in various organ systems and may present with diverse manifestations. We r... more Tuberculosis can occur in various organ systems and may present with diverse manifestations. We report an unusual case of mediastinal tuberculoma in a 3-month-old boy who presented to the hospital after experiencing fever, cough, and progressive pneumonia for two weeks. The chest computed tomography scan indicated a mediastinal mass suggesting lymphoma. However, histological analysis confirmed that the mass was caused by tuberculosis. The present report describes the delayed diagnosis of a disease due to an uncommon presentation. Misdiagnosing unusual cases of tuberculosis results in treatment delays and may lead to an increase in morbidity. Therefore, we suggest that tuberculosis should be included in the differential diagnosis for children presenting with a mediastinal mass, especially in areas with a high prevalence of tuberculosis.
Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2015
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Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 2009
This paper discusses and proposes the policy issues associated with the development of microfinan... more This paper discusses and proposes the policy issues associated with the development of microfinance industry in Indonesia. Despite its capability of financing small-scale businesses, the development of the microfinance industry is far behind that of commercial banks. The policy focus on developing sound financial practices of microbanks has ignored the role of semi-formal and informal microfinance institutions (MFIs) in serving poor people. Compliance with the sound banking practices could inevitably drive microbanks away from serving the poor. Regarding the capability of informal and semi-formal MFIs of outreaching the poor, the challenges to microfinance policy in Indonesia is to develop inclusive financial systems through which the progress of microbanks goes in a parallel direction with the developments of semi-formal and informal MFIs, such as cooperatives and rotating saving and credit associations (ROSCAs).
The Winners, 2001
Article figures out trade policies and performance of Indonesia in 1983-1997 by presenting introd... more Article figures out trade policies and performance of Indonesia in 1983-1997 by presenting introduction, a brief review of international trade theory, the exchange rate policy, and trade promotion export-led performance. It is concluded that the government has promoted the export-increase of manufacturing exports in 1990.
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Papers by Agus Eko Nugroho