Swarm planning is a theory and practical approach to deal with uncertain futures. By anticipating... more Swarm planning is a theory and practical approach to deal with uncertain futures. By anticipating scenarios such as a 'post-carbon' world and a 'pre-adaptive' landscape, it offers an alternative pathway to prepare for medium-term incremental and step changes. The focus is on the regional scale with a planning process to move from an unstable state (i.e. due to external impacts of climate change) towards a state of higher adaptive capacity. It increases the flexibility of spatial systems in two ways: assisting change in spatial land use over time; and catalysing the emergence of autonomous and more resilient developments. Swarm planning theory is used in two pilot designs and compared with regular planning processes. The results are presented in the form of new landscapes: the 'Zero-Fossil Region', where the design provides a spatial framework for a complete renewable energy supply, and the 'Net Carbon Capture Landscape', in which adaptation and mitigation strategies are designed to become carbon positive. The comparison illuminates the potential advantage of swarm planning to tackle climate change threats.
Smart and sustainable built environment, May 25, 2012
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between climate change adaptation and spati... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between climate change adaptation and spatial planning and design. It aims to develop a spatial planning framework in which the properties of climate adaptation and spatial planning are unified.Design/methodology/approachAdaptive and dynamical approaches in spatial planning literature are studied and climate adaptation properties are defined in a way they can be used in a spatial planning framework. The climate adaptation properties and spatial planning features are aggregated in coherent groups and used to construct the spatial planning framework, which subsequently has been tested to design a climate adaptive region.FindingsThe paper concludes that the majority of spatial planning methods do not include adaptive or dynamic strategies derived from complex adaptive systems theory, such as adaptive capacity or vulnerability. If these complex adaptive systems properties are spatially defined and aggregated in a coherent set of spatial groups, they can form a spatial planning framework for climate adaptation. Each of these groups has a specific time dimension and can be linked to a specific spatial planning “layer”. The set of (five) layers form the spatial planning framework, which can be used as a methodology to design a climate adaptive region.Originality/valuePrevious research did not connect the complex issue of climate change with spatial planning. Many frameworks are developed in climate change research but are generally not aiming to meet the needs of spatial planning. This article forms the first attempt to develop a spatial planning framework, in which non‐linear and dynamical processes, such as climate adaptation, is included.
The way energy is supplied, converted and used is very inefficient (Stremke et al. 2010). The San... more The way energy is supplied, converted and used is very inefficient (Stremke et al. 2010). The Sankey diagram illustrates that, on a global level, only 11.6 % of the energy sources is turned into useful energy (Cullen and Allwood 2010; Van den Dobbelsteen 2010) not only high prices of energy or the fact that burning fossil resources contributes to climate change motivate a transition towards sustainable energy supply. A structural change is also required because fossil resources (Including finite yet non-fossil nuclear energy) will be depleted in a period of less than 100 years (Hoogakker 2006). This is caused by the fact that running out of the first fossil resource subsequently leads to an accelerated depletion of the next. In the BP statistical review the R/P (Reserve to Production) ratio for coal, oil and natural gas is estimated 120, 45 and 60 years respectively (BP 2009), however, this does not take into account that when oil is finished, the depletion of gas and coal will be accelerated. Therefore, the longer term aim is to develop a society that functions without the use of fossil resources. Dril (2010) demonstrates that current policy will not enable to achieve this goal, because existing market powers object transition, implementation of change is too slow and policy cannot enforce a fundamental shift in energy supply. In addition, people seem not to be willing to pay for energy-efficient houses (Van Estrik 2009). The question that can be raised is if a transition towards non-fossil will occur through incremental steps or through discontinuous processes of subsequent breakthroughs. The incremental approach mainly focuses on achieving what is already possible. A certain agreed target, such as to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 % by the year 2020 (European Parliament Council 2009) or the energy agreement for the Northern Netherlands (Samenwerkingsverband Noord-Nederland et al. 2007), determines the maximum achievable level. The transition model as described by De Roo illustrates this continuous process (De Roo 2008). There is no incentive to realise higher targets than the maximum aim; the aim even limits the realisation of a fundamental change towards a complete sustainable energy supply. Several studies (Van den Dobbelsteen et al. 2007a, b; Broersma et al. 2009) illustrate that an approach based on the available potentials of a certain area, enables realising much higher targets. However, these high ambitions are only attainable through the enforcement of breakthroughs, as illustrated by Perez (Perez 2002) or, as complexity theory explores, enforcing a jump to a higher level of complexity (Geldof 2001; Zuijderhoudt 2007; Peeters and Wetzels 1997). This process of subsequent and discontinuous phases and shifts, as described elsewhere (Roggema et al. 2010), places the local energy potentials in a central position.
The main effects of climate change in urban environments are heat-stress and flooding. In order t... more The main effects of climate change in urban environments are heat-stress and flooding. In order to mitigate these effects the city needs to adapt and anticipate. The most fundamental solution would be to relocate urban areas towards places that are less likely to suffer from heat or rainwater. However, although this rigorous solution might be effective from a heat and water point of view, replacement of large groups of people is not as easy. The solutions to keep a comfortable living environment in the city at a high quality level needs to be found in the creation of space for green and water. Green and blue structures in the city pattern not only create a pleasant environment, they also solve excessive heat problems and water surpluses. It is clear that in times of extreme weather events like heavy rains a city with large spaces where the water can be stored is far more flexible and will face less problems than a dense and paved one. The effect of green spaces with water on the tem...
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Swarm planning is a theory and practical approach to deal with uncertain futures. By anticipating... more Swarm planning is a theory and practical approach to deal with uncertain futures. By anticipating scenarios such as a 'post-carbon' world and a 'pre-adaptive' landscape, it offers an alternative pathway to prepare for medium-term incremental and step changes. The focus is on the regional scale with a planning process to move from an unstable state (i.e. due to external impacts of climate change) towards a state of higher adaptive capacity. It increases the flexibility of spatial systems in two ways: assisting change in spatial land use over time; and catalysing the emergence of autonomous and more resilient developments. Swarm planning theory is used in two pilot designs and compared with regular planning processes. The results are presented in the form of new landscapes: the 'Zero-Fossil Region', where the design provides a spatial framework for a complete renewable energy supply, and the 'Net Carbon Capture Landscape', in which adaptation and mitigation strategies are designed to become carbon positive. The comparison illuminates the potential advantage of swarm planning to tackle climate change threats.
Smart and sustainable built environment, May 25, 2012
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between climate change adaptation and spati... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between climate change adaptation and spatial planning and design. It aims to develop a spatial planning framework in which the properties of climate adaptation and spatial planning are unified.Design/methodology/approachAdaptive and dynamical approaches in spatial planning literature are studied and climate adaptation properties are defined in a way they can be used in a spatial planning framework. The climate adaptation properties and spatial planning features are aggregated in coherent groups and used to construct the spatial planning framework, which subsequently has been tested to design a climate adaptive region.FindingsThe paper concludes that the majority of spatial planning methods do not include adaptive or dynamic strategies derived from complex adaptive systems theory, such as adaptive capacity or vulnerability. If these complex adaptive systems properties are spatially defined and aggregated in a coherent set of spatial groups, they can form a spatial planning framework for climate adaptation. Each of these groups has a specific time dimension and can be linked to a specific spatial planning “layer”. The set of (five) layers form the spatial planning framework, which can be used as a methodology to design a climate adaptive region.Originality/valuePrevious research did not connect the complex issue of climate change with spatial planning. Many frameworks are developed in climate change research but are generally not aiming to meet the needs of spatial planning. This article forms the first attempt to develop a spatial planning framework, in which non‐linear and dynamical processes, such as climate adaptation, is included.
The way energy is supplied, converted and used is very inefficient (Stremke et al. 2010). The San... more The way energy is supplied, converted and used is very inefficient (Stremke et al. 2010). The Sankey diagram illustrates that, on a global level, only 11.6 % of the energy sources is turned into useful energy (Cullen and Allwood 2010; Van den Dobbelsteen 2010) not only high prices of energy or the fact that burning fossil resources contributes to climate change motivate a transition towards sustainable energy supply. A structural change is also required because fossil resources (Including finite yet non-fossil nuclear energy) will be depleted in a period of less than 100 years (Hoogakker 2006). This is caused by the fact that running out of the first fossil resource subsequently leads to an accelerated depletion of the next. In the BP statistical review the R/P (Reserve to Production) ratio for coal, oil and natural gas is estimated 120, 45 and 60 years respectively (BP 2009), however, this does not take into account that when oil is finished, the depletion of gas and coal will be accelerated. Therefore, the longer term aim is to develop a society that functions without the use of fossil resources. Dril (2010) demonstrates that current policy will not enable to achieve this goal, because existing market powers object transition, implementation of change is too slow and policy cannot enforce a fundamental shift in energy supply. In addition, people seem not to be willing to pay for energy-efficient houses (Van Estrik 2009). The question that can be raised is if a transition towards non-fossil will occur through incremental steps or through discontinuous processes of subsequent breakthroughs. The incremental approach mainly focuses on achieving what is already possible. A certain agreed target, such as to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 % by the year 2020 (European Parliament Council 2009) or the energy agreement for the Northern Netherlands (Samenwerkingsverband Noord-Nederland et al. 2007), determines the maximum achievable level. The transition model as described by De Roo illustrates this continuous process (De Roo 2008). There is no incentive to realise higher targets than the maximum aim; the aim even limits the realisation of a fundamental change towards a complete sustainable energy supply. Several studies (Van den Dobbelsteen et al. 2007a, b; Broersma et al. 2009) illustrate that an approach based on the available potentials of a certain area, enables realising much higher targets. However, these high ambitions are only attainable through the enforcement of breakthroughs, as illustrated by Perez (Perez 2002) or, as complexity theory explores, enforcing a jump to a higher level of complexity (Geldof 2001; Zuijderhoudt 2007; Peeters and Wetzels 1997). This process of subsequent and discontinuous phases and shifts, as described elsewhere (Roggema et al. 2010), places the local energy potentials in a central position.
The main effects of climate change in urban environments are heat-stress and flooding. In order t... more The main effects of climate change in urban environments are heat-stress and flooding. In order to mitigate these effects the city needs to adapt and anticipate. The most fundamental solution would be to relocate urban areas towards places that are less likely to suffer from heat or rainwater. However, although this rigorous solution might be effective from a heat and water point of view, replacement of large groups of people is not as easy. The solutions to keep a comfortable living environment in the city at a high quality level needs to be found in the creation of space for green and water. Green and blue structures in the city pattern not only create a pleasant environment, they also solve excessive heat problems and water surpluses. It is clear that in times of extreme weather events like heavy rains a city with large spaces where the water can be stored is far more flexible and will face less problems than a dense and paved one. The effect of green spaces with water on the tem...
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Uploads
Papers by Rob Roggema