contextual factors that influence spending habits, Furnham, 1999; attitudes toward money manageme... more contextual factors that influence spending habits, Furnham, 1999; attitudes toward money management, Kidwell, Brinberg, & Turrisi, 2003; materialism, Watson, 2003), surprisingly, they have not yet explored people’s ability to predict their future personal spending. Personal spending predictions have widespread practical implica-tions. Major life decisions (e.g., whether to have a child, when to retire) as well as everyday choices (e.g., where to buy lunch, how to spend the weekend) almost always involve a consideration of future expenses. In this domain prediction errors can be costly, resulting in choices that are later regretted or unwise financial deci-sions, and ultimately could contribute to increased stress and reduced well-being. For example, if people underestimate the amount they will spend in a future time period (e.g., next week or next month), this could lead them to commit to events or purchases they will be unable to afford or to acquire excessive debt. In sum, the abi...
People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy-know... more People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy-known as backward planning-that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool for developing realistic plans and projections. We conducted four experiments to test effects on completion time predictions and related cognitive processes. Participants planned for a task in one of three directions (backward, forward, or unspecified) and predicted when it would be finished. As hypothesized, predicted completion times were longer (Studies 1-4) and thus less biased (Study 4) in the backward condition than in the forward and unspecified conditions. Process measures suggested that backward planning may increase attention to situational factors that delay progress (e.g., obstacles, interruptions, competing demands), elicit novel ...
Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical accoun... more Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical account such as the memory bias account of optimistic time predictions. However, such comparisons can be misleading when they do not carefully consider the domain limitations of the respective theories. M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, and C. R. M. McKenzie have contrasted the memory bias and planning fallacy accounts in their ability to explain the prevalence and degree of optimistic bias in time predictions. However, the authors argue that many of the points of distinction they draw are actually reflections of the domain limitations of the 2 theories. The authors clarify the definition and scope of the planning fallacy account and show how the apparent contradictions diminish or disappear.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2003
The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project... more The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that people generate overly optimistic predictions, in part, because they focus narrowly on their future plans for the target task and thus neglect other useful sources of information. Consistent with the hypothesis, instructing participants to adopt a ''future focus''-in which they generated concrete, specific plans for the task at handled them to make more optimistic predictions about when they would complete their intended Christmas shopping (Study 1) and major school assignments (Study 2). The future focus manipulation did not have a corresponding effect on actual completion times, and thus increased the degree of optimistic bias in prediction. The studies also demonstrated that the optimistic prediction bias generalized across different task domains, relevant individual differences (i.e., trait optimism and procrastination), and other contextual variations.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2005
Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in ... more Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in time prediction. The present studies extend research on task completion forecasts to examine tasks performed collaboratively by groups, and predictions generated through group discussion. Participants predicted-individually and collaboratively-when they would complete upcoming group projects ranging from brief laboratory tasks to extensive real-world projects, and their actual completion times were measured. Results supported the three guiding hypotheses. First, there was an optimistic bias for both individual (Studies 1 and 2) and group predictions (Studies 1-3). Second, predictions generated through group discussion were more optimistic than those generated individually. Third, this "group accentuation" eVect was mediated by the informational focus at the time of prediction. Group discussion heightened participants' tendency to focus primarily on factors promoting successful task completion, and this selective focus on "planning for success" enhanced their optimistic outlook. Discussion centers on theoretical contributions to the individual and group decision making literatures, as well as applied implications for planning and forecasting within organizational contexts.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2012
People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the plann... more People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because people focus on developing a specific plan for the current task and neglect the implications of past failures to meet similar deadlines. We extend the classic planning fallacy model by proposing that a phenomenal quality of mental imagery-the visual perspective that is adopted-may moderate the optimistic prediction bias. Consistent with this proposal, participants in four studies predicted longer completion times, and thus were less prone to bias, when they imagined an upcoming task from the third-person rather than first-person perspective. Third-person imagery reduced people's focus on optimistic plans, increased their focus on potential obstacles, and decreased the impact of task-relevant motives on prediction. The findings suggest that third-person imagery helps individuals generate more realistic predictions by reducing cognitive and motivational processes that typically contribute to bias.
... If, in retrospect, the past appears predictable, then people have a basis for believing that ... more ... If, in retrospect, the past appears predictable, then people have a basis for believing that they can anticipate and control their futures. ... Breuer and Freud described the curative effects of encour-aging people to express their pent-up emotions and emphasized the therapeutic ...
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1993
Three hypotheses are developed to explain the role of construal processes in conformity behavior.... more Three hypotheses are developed to explain the role of construal processes in conformity behavior. According to the preconformity change of meaning hypothesis, social influence leads to changes in situational construal that precede and mediate conformity behavior: according to the postconformity change of meaning hypothesis, construal change follows and justifies conformity; and according to the construal-consistency hypothesis, preexisting situational construal distinguishes those who conform from those who dissent. Four experimental studies with varying methodology and involving a total of 361 undergraduate students were performed to test these hypotheses. The results of all studies provide strong evidence for postconformity change of meaning effects
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dec 1, 2007
This research program examined how self-focused attention to feelings affects the relation betwee... more This research program examined how self-focused attention to feelings affects the relation between mood negativity and self-enhancing thought. The primary hypothesis was that the particular manner in which people focus on their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) determines whether they reveal positive (i.e., mood-incongruent) or negative (i.e., mood-congruent) self-relevant thoughts in response to negative moods. Studies 1-4 revealed that social comparisons, temporal comparisons, and other self-enhancing cognitions (i.e., attributions, disidentification, relationship evaluations) are more likely to be mood incongruent when people adopt a reflective orientation to their negative feelings and more likely to be mood congruent when they adopt a ruminative orientation. Additionally, moods and mood orientations affected self-enhancing thoughts through the mediating influence of mood regulation goals and intentions (Studies 5 and 6).
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Mar 1, 2007
A classic study conducted by Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) revealed a perseverance effect wher... more A classic study conducted by Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) revealed a perseverance effect wherein people who received positive performance feedback on an alleged social perceptiveness test reported more favorable self-perceptions in this domain than those who received ...
People often underestimate their future personal spending. Across four studies we examined an ''u... more People often underestimate their future personal spending. Across four studies we examined an ''unpacking'' intervention to reduce this bias. Participants predicted spending for an upcoming week (Study 1), a weekend (Study 2a), a vacation (Study 2b), and for weeks versus self-nominated events (Study 3), and subsequently reported actual spending. In each case, unpacking the details of expected expenses increased spending predictions. In contexts where predictions tended to be too low , unpacking eliminated underestimation bias. However, in contexts where predictions were already unbiased, unpacking introduced an overestimation bias (Study 2, 3). Unpacking appears to make predictions bigger, not necessarily better.
It was hypothesized that when it is difficult for people to remember what they said previously, t... more It was hypothesized that when it is difficult for people to remember what they said previously, they may use their sense of familiarity with a statement to determine whether it is one they expressed. In 3 experiments, Ss were asked to state whether they had witnessed certain objects in a previous slide presentation; they responded aloud with experimentally mandated statements. The familiarity of target statements was varied, independent of whether they were expressed, through extraneous presentations of the pertinent objects. Later, Ss tried to determine whether (Experiments 1 and 2), or how frequently (Experiment 3), they expressed the target statements. Results supported the hypothesis: Ss were more likely to remember making statements concerning the more familiar objects than the less familiar objects.
contextual factors that influence spending habits, Furnham, 1999; attitudes toward money manageme... more contextual factors that influence spending habits, Furnham, 1999; attitudes toward money management, Kidwell, Brinberg, & Turrisi, 2003; materialism, Watson, 2003), surprisingly, they have not yet explored people’s ability to predict their future personal spending. Personal spending predictions have widespread practical implica-tions. Major life decisions (e.g., whether to have a child, when to retire) as well as everyday choices (e.g., where to buy lunch, how to spend the weekend) almost always involve a consideration of future expenses. In this domain prediction errors can be costly, resulting in choices that are later regretted or unwise financial deci-sions, and ultimately could contribute to increased stress and reduced well-being. For example, if people underestimate the amount they will spend in a future time period (e.g., next week or next month), this could lead them to commit to events or purchases they will be unable to afford or to acquire excessive debt. In sum, the abi...
People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy-know... more People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy-known as backward planning-that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool for developing realistic plans and projections. We conducted four experiments to test effects on completion time predictions and related cognitive processes. Participants planned for a task in one of three directions (backward, forward, or unspecified) and predicted when it would be finished. As hypothesized, predicted completion times were longer (Studies 1-4) and thus less biased (Study 4) in the backward condition than in the forward and unspecified conditions. Process measures suggested that backward planning may increase attention to situational factors that delay progress (e.g., obstacles, interruptions, competing demands), elicit novel ...
Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical accoun... more Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical account such as the memory bias account of optimistic time predictions. However, such comparisons can be misleading when they do not carefully consider the domain limitations of the respective theories. M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, and C. R. M. McKenzie have contrasted the memory bias and planning fallacy accounts in their ability to explain the prevalence and degree of optimistic bias in time predictions. However, the authors argue that many of the points of distinction they draw are actually reflections of the domain limitations of the 2 theories. The authors clarify the definition and scope of the planning fallacy account and show how the apparent contradictions diminish or disappear.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2003
The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project... more The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that people generate overly optimistic predictions, in part, because they focus narrowly on their future plans for the target task and thus neglect other useful sources of information. Consistent with the hypothesis, instructing participants to adopt a ''future focus''-in which they generated concrete, specific plans for the task at handled them to make more optimistic predictions about when they would complete their intended Christmas shopping (Study 1) and major school assignments (Study 2). The future focus manipulation did not have a corresponding effect on actual completion times, and thus increased the degree of optimistic bias in prediction. The studies also demonstrated that the optimistic prediction bias generalized across different task domains, relevant individual differences (i.e., trait optimism and procrastination), and other contextual variations.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2005
Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in ... more Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in time prediction. The present studies extend research on task completion forecasts to examine tasks performed collaboratively by groups, and predictions generated through group discussion. Participants predicted-individually and collaboratively-when they would complete upcoming group projects ranging from brief laboratory tasks to extensive real-world projects, and their actual completion times were measured. Results supported the three guiding hypotheses. First, there was an optimistic bias for both individual (Studies 1 and 2) and group predictions (Studies 1-3). Second, predictions generated through group discussion were more optimistic than those generated individually. Third, this "group accentuation" eVect was mediated by the informational focus at the time of prediction. Group discussion heightened participants' tendency to focus primarily on factors promoting successful task completion, and this selective focus on "planning for success" enhanced their optimistic outlook. Discussion centers on theoretical contributions to the individual and group decision making literatures, as well as applied implications for planning and forecasting within organizational contexts.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2012
People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the plann... more People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because people focus on developing a specific plan for the current task and neglect the implications of past failures to meet similar deadlines. We extend the classic planning fallacy model by proposing that a phenomenal quality of mental imagery-the visual perspective that is adopted-may moderate the optimistic prediction bias. Consistent with this proposal, participants in four studies predicted longer completion times, and thus were less prone to bias, when they imagined an upcoming task from the third-person rather than first-person perspective. Third-person imagery reduced people's focus on optimistic plans, increased their focus on potential obstacles, and decreased the impact of task-relevant motives on prediction. The findings suggest that third-person imagery helps individuals generate more realistic predictions by reducing cognitive and motivational processes that typically contribute to bias.
... If, in retrospect, the past appears predictable, then people have a basis for believing that ... more ... If, in retrospect, the past appears predictable, then people have a basis for believing that they can anticipate and control their futures. ... Breuer and Freud described the curative effects of encour-aging people to express their pent-up emotions and emphasized the therapeutic ...
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1993
Three hypotheses are developed to explain the role of construal processes in conformity behavior.... more Three hypotheses are developed to explain the role of construal processes in conformity behavior. According to the preconformity change of meaning hypothesis, social influence leads to changes in situational construal that precede and mediate conformity behavior: according to the postconformity change of meaning hypothesis, construal change follows and justifies conformity; and according to the construal-consistency hypothesis, preexisting situational construal distinguishes those who conform from those who dissent. Four experimental studies with varying methodology and involving a total of 361 undergraduate students were performed to test these hypotheses. The results of all studies provide strong evidence for postconformity change of meaning effects
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dec 1, 2007
This research program examined how self-focused attention to feelings affects the relation betwee... more This research program examined how self-focused attention to feelings affects the relation between mood negativity and self-enhancing thought. The primary hypothesis was that the particular manner in which people focus on their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) determines whether they reveal positive (i.e., mood-incongruent) or negative (i.e., mood-congruent) self-relevant thoughts in response to negative moods. Studies 1-4 revealed that social comparisons, temporal comparisons, and other self-enhancing cognitions (i.e., attributions, disidentification, relationship evaluations) are more likely to be mood incongruent when people adopt a reflective orientation to their negative feelings and more likely to be mood congruent when they adopt a ruminative orientation. Additionally, moods and mood orientations affected self-enhancing thoughts through the mediating influence of mood regulation goals and intentions (Studies 5 and 6).
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Mar 1, 2007
A classic study conducted by Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) revealed a perseverance effect wher... more A classic study conducted by Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) revealed a perseverance effect wherein people who received positive performance feedback on an alleged social perceptiveness test reported more favorable self-perceptions in this domain than those who received ...
People often underestimate their future personal spending. Across four studies we examined an ''u... more People often underestimate their future personal spending. Across four studies we examined an ''unpacking'' intervention to reduce this bias. Participants predicted spending for an upcoming week (Study 1), a weekend (Study 2a), a vacation (Study 2b), and for weeks versus self-nominated events (Study 3), and subsequently reported actual spending. In each case, unpacking the details of expected expenses increased spending predictions. In contexts where predictions tended to be too low , unpacking eliminated underestimation bias. However, in contexts where predictions were already unbiased, unpacking introduced an overestimation bias (Study 2, 3). Unpacking appears to make predictions bigger, not necessarily better.
It was hypothesized that when it is difficult for people to remember what they said previously, t... more It was hypothesized that when it is difficult for people to remember what they said previously, they may use their sense of familiarity with a statement to determine whether it is one they expressed. In 3 experiments, Ss were asked to state whether they had witnessed certain objects in a previous slide presentation; they responded aloud with experimentally mandated statements. The familiarity of target statements was varied, independent of whether they were expressed, through extraneous presentations of the pertinent objects. Later, Ss tried to determine whether (Experiments 1 and 2), or how frequently (Experiment 3), they expressed the target statements. Results supported the hypothesis: Ss were more likely to remember making statements concerning the more familiar objects than the less familiar objects.
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Papers by Roger Buehler