This paper examines the effect of inflation on productivity growth in Australia. Broad historical... more This paper examines the effect of inflation on productivity growth in Australia. Broad historical correlations suggest a negative relationship between inflation and aggregate productivity growth. The low-frequency nature of the relationship, however, means it is difficult to establish statistical causation at the aggregate level. We look at the industry-level relationships in an effort to overcome this limitation and to understand the relationship better. On this level we find clearly significant results with industry-level inflation explaining industry productivity. We also find that the relationship varies by industry, with the strongest evidence of a negative relationship being found in the cases of concentrated industries, i.e., those dominated by large firms. Finally, we find evidence that the negative effects of inflation on productivity do not operate solely through a reduction in capital accumulation but also through a reduction in multifactor productivity growth.
PurposeThe regularity of default by countries on their sovereign debt has led to the establishmen... more PurposeThe regularity of default by countries on their sovereign debt has led to the establishment of a number of evolving institutions or “Clubs”. These institutions' objective is to optimise the impact of imminent default or actual default on both international lending and borrowing. The purpose of this article is to discuss the informal institutions concerned with managing debt between national governments – the Paris Club, between governments and commercial banks – the London Club – and the currently ad hoc dealings with sovereign bonds.Design/methodology/approachThe Clubs' changing approaches through the increasing depth and number of international financial crises from the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the circumstances of the ex‐Soviet economies, plus the ongoing debt sub‐Saharan African debt crisis are discussed.FindingsThe shifts in the principles underlying the debt management system are manifest by the ch...
bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su r... more bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Produced by the Research Support Team
and Adam Cagliarini for helpful comments and suggestions. Of course, the responsibility for any e... more and Adam Cagliarini for helpful comments and suggestions. Of course, the responsibility for any errors lies with the author. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of Australia. i This paper explores the concept of underlying inflation and the properties of various measures of underlying inflation in the Australian context. Underlying inflation measures are routinely calculated and monitored by central banks in many countries, including the Reserve Bank of Australia. Alternative measurement concepts are explored, and a range of measures that have been calculated for Australia are discussed and evaluated on the basis of statistical criteria. These criteria capture the intuition that a good measure of underlying inflation should be less volatile than CPI (or headline) inflation, be unbiased with respect to CPI inflation, and capture the ‘trend ’ in CPI inflation so that, on average, CPI inflation will tend to ...
Papua New Guinea's (PNGs) economy has slowed from the very strong growth rates of recent year... more Papua New Guinea's (PNGs) economy has slowed from the very strong growth rates of recent years, as construction of the PNG liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility nears completion and export prices weaken, weighing on domestic activity. The depreciating Kina is cushioning PNG's economy from weaker export prices and slowing domestic demand by supporting farmers' and exporters' incomes and improving PNG's competitiveness. The government is trying to support domestic activity through stronger public spending, especially on capital works. Despite weaker commodity receipts, it has been able to maintain its revenues through stronger compliance efforts. PNG's budget deficit is projected to widen in 2013 and 2014. The government can do much to support shared growth without putting its financial health at risk through better quality spending. Importantly, for both domestic and international investors and employers, consistent, transparent, and predictable actions regardi...
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2021)41 STRENGTHENING ITALY'S PUBLIC SECTOR EFFECTIVENESS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2020)30 REJUVENATING GREECE'S LABOUR MARKET TO GENERATE MORE AND HIGHER-QUALITY JOBS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,
OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of i... more OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
This paper examines the effect of inflation on productivity growth in Australia. Broad historical... more This paper examines the effect of inflation on productivity growth in Australia. Broad historical correlations suggest a negative relationship between inflation and aggregate productivity growth. The low-frequency nature of the relationship, however, means it is difficult to establish statistical causation at the aggregate level. We look at the industry-level relationships in an effort to overcome this limitation and to understand the relationship better. On this level we find clearly significant results with industry-level inflation explaining industry productivity. We also find that the relationship varies by industry, with the strongest evidence of a negative relationship being found in the cases of concentrated industries, i.e., those dominated by large firms. Finally, we find evidence that the negative effects of inflation on productivity do not operate solely through a reduction in capital accumulation but also through a reduction in multifactor productivity growth.
PurposeThe regularity of default by countries on their sovereign debt has led to the establishmen... more PurposeThe regularity of default by countries on their sovereign debt has led to the establishment of a number of evolving institutions or “Clubs”. These institutions' objective is to optimise the impact of imminent default or actual default on both international lending and borrowing. The purpose of this article is to discuss the informal institutions concerned with managing debt between national governments – the Paris Club, between governments and commercial banks – the London Club – and the currently ad hoc dealings with sovereign bonds.Design/methodology/approachThe Clubs' changing approaches through the increasing depth and number of international financial crises from the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the circumstances of the ex‐Soviet economies, plus the ongoing debt sub‐Saharan African debt crisis are discussed.FindingsThe shifts in the principles underlying the debt management system are manifest by the ch...
bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su r... more bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Produced by the Research Support Team
and Adam Cagliarini for helpful comments and suggestions. Of course, the responsibility for any e... more and Adam Cagliarini for helpful comments and suggestions. Of course, the responsibility for any errors lies with the author. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of Australia. i This paper explores the concept of underlying inflation and the properties of various measures of underlying inflation in the Australian context. Underlying inflation measures are routinely calculated and monitored by central banks in many countries, including the Reserve Bank of Australia. Alternative measurement concepts are explored, and a range of measures that have been calculated for Australia are discussed and evaluated on the basis of statistical criteria. These criteria capture the intuition that a good measure of underlying inflation should be less volatile than CPI (or headline) inflation, be unbiased with respect to CPI inflation, and capture the ‘trend ’ in CPI inflation so that, on average, CPI inflation will tend to ...
Papua New Guinea's (PNGs) economy has slowed from the very strong growth rates of recent year... more Papua New Guinea's (PNGs) economy has slowed from the very strong growth rates of recent years, as construction of the PNG liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility nears completion and export prices weaken, weighing on domestic activity. The depreciating Kina is cushioning PNG's economy from weaker export prices and slowing domestic demand by supporting farmers' and exporters' incomes and improving PNG's competitiveness. The government is trying to support domestic activity through stronger public spending, especially on capital works. Despite weaker commodity receipts, it has been able to maintain its revenues through stronger compliance efforts. PNG's budget deficit is projected to widen in 2013 and 2014. The government can do much to support shared growth without putting its financial health at risk through better quality spending. Importantly, for both domestic and international investors and employers, consistent, transparent, and predictable actions regardi...
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2021)41 STRENGTHENING ITALY'S PUBLIC SECTOR EFFECTIVENESS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status o... more This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 ECO/WKP(2020)30 REJUVENATING GREECE'S LABOUR MARKET TO GENERATE MORE AND HIGHER-QUALITY JOBS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,
OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of i... more OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
Uploads
Papers by Tim Bulman