EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • ISEAS polling suggests that Southeast Asia would welcome a Biden administrati... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • ISEAS polling suggests that Southeast Asia would welcome a Biden administration policy towards Asia that is less confrontational and unilateralist than the Trump administration, and firmer and more action-oriented than the Obama administration that president-elect Joe Biden served in. • Southeast Asian governments want the Biden administration to adopt a less confrontational stance towards China and achieve a significant lowering of US-China tensions. • While they welcome increased US economic and security engagement with the region, they are less enthusiastic about Biden's emphasis on human rights and democracy promotion. • As President, Biden will have to quickly locate and maintain the medium between reviving the US position and practices in Southeast Asia and not being perceived as seeking to return to an era that no longer exists.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • US relations with key Southeast Asian states including Vietnam and Thailand h... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • US relations with key Southeast Asian states including Vietnam and Thailand have improved under the first Trump administration despite the pervasive view in the region of US disengagement from Southeast Asia under President Trump. • A second Trump presidency would mean that the disruptive nativist populism of his first term has become accepted political practice in the United States. • A Biden victory will not mean a return to the Obama administration's Asia policy. • Reversing or stopping America's relative loss of influence in Southeast Asia to China will likely be beyond either a second Trump or a Biden administration.
• Prior to COVID-19, Southeast Asians already distrusted both superpowers and were concerned abou... more • Prior to COVID-19, Southeast Asians already distrusted both superpowers and were concerned about escalating US-China rivalry. The pandemic and its aftermath are likely to aggravate these concerns.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • President Duterte came into office in mid-2016 promising an independent forei... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • President Duterte came into office in mid-2016 promising an independent foreign policy and better relations with China. His accommodation of Chinese interests has resulted in a less independent foreign policy stance. • The administration's ongoing response to the hitting of a Philippine fishing vessel in the West Philippine Sea by a trawler from China highlights the breadth and depth of this accommodation. • Strong popular opposition, contradictory messages from government agencies, and criticism by non-opposition senators of Duterte's deference to China expose the tensions between the president and other foreign and defence policy actors on Philippine-China relations. • These concerns and the president's personalized approach to Philippine-China relations suggest that his successor in 2022 will pursue a more independent foreign policy in relation to Philippine-China relations.
• On 13 May, the Philippines will hold elections for all local and provincial positions, all seat... more • On 13 May, the Philippines will hold elections for all local and provincial positions, all seats in the House of Representatives, and half of the 24 seats in the Senate.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The second Trump-Kim summit had generally positive outcomes for Southeast Asi... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The second Trump-Kim summit had generally positive outcomes for Southeast Asia and especially the host Vietnam. Although the Trump administration remains focused on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia figures prominently in US thinking on meeting the security challenges posed by China. Southeast Asian economies with a visible trade surplus with the US are likely to avoid most US trade retaliation during the first Trump administration.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bangsamoro Organic Law is the Duterte administration's landmark legislati... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bangsamoro Organic Law is the Duterte administration's landmark legislative achievement to date. This law, if effectively implemented, will devolve significant powers to the new Bangsamoro government and could create a real regional autonomous government for Muslim Mindanao. Previous attempts to create an effectively autonomous regional government in Muslim Mindanao show that the passage into law is the easier part. Effective implementation is the hard and so far unsuccessful part. The three biggest challenges to address so that history does not repeat itself are: o Resolving local divisions over the Bangsamoro Organic Law in Muslim Mindanao; o Improving state capacity in Muslim Mindanao, and; o Ensuring national government support for the regional autonomous government.
• Over the last quarter-century, the challenge posed by Australia's deepening economic ties with ... more • Over the last quarter-century, the challenge posed by Australia's deepening economic ties with China for Australian strategic interests and policies has dominated security-related discussion of the bilateral relationship.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • ISEAS polling suggests that Southeast Asia would welcome a Biden administrati... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • ISEAS polling suggests that Southeast Asia would welcome a Biden administration policy towards Asia that is less confrontational and unilateralist than the Trump administration, and firmer and more action-oriented than the Obama administration that president-elect Joe Biden served in. • Southeast Asian governments want the Biden administration to adopt a less confrontational stance towards China and achieve a significant lowering of US-China tensions. • While they welcome increased US economic and security engagement with the region, they are less enthusiastic about Biden's emphasis on human rights and democracy promotion. • As President, Biden will have to quickly locate and maintain the medium between reviving the US position and practices in Southeast Asia and not being perceived as seeking to return to an era that no longer exists.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • US relations with key Southeast Asian states including Vietnam and Thailand h... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • US relations with key Southeast Asian states including Vietnam and Thailand have improved under the first Trump administration despite the pervasive view in the region of US disengagement from Southeast Asia under President Trump. • A second Trump presidency would mean that the disruptive nativist populism of his first term has become accepted political practice in the United States. • A Biden victory will not mean a return to the Obama administration's Asia policy. • Reversing or stopping America's relative loss of influence in Southeast Asia to China will likely be beyond either a second Trump or a Biden administration.
• Prior to COVID-19, Southeast Asians already distrusted both superpowers and were concerned abou... more • Prior to COVID-19, Southeast Asians already distrusted both superpowers and were concerned about escalating US-China rivalry. The pandemic and its aftermath are likely to aggravate these concerns.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • President Duterte came into office in mid-2016 promising an independent forei... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • President Duterte came into office in mid-2016 promising an independent foreign policy and better relations with China. His accommodation of Chinese interests has resulted in a less independent foreign policy stance. • The administration's ongoing response to the hitting of a Philippine fishing vessel in the West Philippine Sea by a trawler from China highlights the breadth and depth of this accommodation. • Strong popular opposition, contradictory messages from government agencies, and criticism by non-opposition senators of Duterte's deference to China expose the tensions between the president and other foreign and defence policy actors on Philippine-China relations. • These concerns and the president's personalized approach to Philippine-China relations suggest that his successor in 2022 will pursue a more independent foreign policy in relation to Philippine-China relations.
• On 13 May, the Philippines will hold elections for all local and provincial positions, all seat... more • On 13 May, the Philippines will hold elections for all local and provincial positions, all seats in the House of Representatives, and half of the 24 seats in the Senate.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The second Trump-Kim summit had generally positive outcomes for Southeast Asi... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The second Trump-Kim summit had generally positive outcomes for Southeast Asia and especially the host Vietnam. Although the Trump administration remains focused on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia figures prominently in US thinking on meeting the security challenges posed by China. Southeast Asian economies with a visible trade surplus with the US are likely to avoid most US trade retaliation during the first Trump administration.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bangsamoro Organic Law is the Duterte administration's landmark legislati... more EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bangsamoro Organic Law is the Duterte administration's landmark legislative achievement to date. This law, if effectively implemented, will devolve significant powers to the new Bangsamoro government and could create a real regional autonomous government for Muslim Mindanao. Previous attempts to create an effectively autonomous regional government in Muslim Mindanao show that the passage into law is the easier part. Effective implementation is the hard and so far unsuccessful part. The three biggest challenges to address so that history does not repeat itself are: o Resolving local divisions over the Bangsamoro Organic Law in Muslim Mindanao; o Improving state capacity in Muslim Mindanao, and; o Ensuring national government support for the regional autonomous government.
• Over the last quarter-century, the challenge posed by Australia's deepening economic ties with ... more • Over the last quarter-century, the challenge posed by Australia's deepening economic ties with China for Australian strategic interests and policies has dominated security-related discussion of the bilateral relationship.
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Papers by Malcolm Cook