To create an engaging and motivating learning environment, we have developed software which is ba... more To create an engaging and motivating learning environment, we have developed software which is based on estimated parameters for the UK economy. The program allows students to both simulate the effects of economic policy on national income and its components as well as the flexibility to vary key parameters of interest in order to assess the impact on economic performance. In this paper we present the main features of the software and the model on which it is based. We discuss the potential uses of the software within a classroom context and consider two simulations. The first of these is a fiscal expansion designed to bring down unemployment and the second is an exogenous shock to consumption affecting the parameters of the consumption-income relationship. This paper advocates that students' understanding of theoretical models can be greatly enhanced by the addition of practical examples that can be used in lectures and tutorials as well as for independent study.
This article uses the Chow--Lin (1971) procedure to generate estimates of quarterly gross domesti... more This article uses the Chow--Lin (1971) procedure to generate estimates of quarterly gross domestic product for the UK economy over the period January 1920 to April 1938. This series is then used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output.
Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for seri... more Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures ...
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2014
This paper uses a relatively-new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The ... more This paper uses a relatively-new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.
This paper uses quantitative balance sheet liquidity analysis, based upon modified versions of th... more This paper uses quantitative balance sheet liquidity analysis, based upon modified versions of the BCBS (2010) and Moody's (2001) models, to estimate UK banks' short and long-term liquidity positions respectively. The study also presents fundamental financial information to facilitate analysis of banks' business models and funding strategies. Using data for the period 2005-2010, we provide evidence that there have been variable liquidity strains across the UK banks in our sample. The estimated results show that Barclays Bank ...
The concept of elasticity of demand is one of the most important in economics. At its most genera... more The concept of elasticity of demand is one of the most important in economics. At its most general level the elasticity of demand measures the percentage response in demand to a given percentage change in some other variable of interest. For example, we are often interested in the response of demand to changes in the price of the good concerned price–the own price elasticity of demand–but we may also be interested in the response to changes in income–the income elasticity of demand–or changes in the prices of other ...
British clearing banks have often been attacked over their provision of industrial finance. Lever... more British clearing banks have often been attacked over their provision of industrial finance. Lever and Edwards (1980) and Edwards and Carrington (1979) are among the more recent critics ; in their view the failings of the banks in this area are a major cause of Britain's relative economic decline. They emphasize the distortion of the credit system towards easy credit
Distinct diffusion curves are identified by model type and significant differences in regional mo... more Distinct diffusion curves are identified by model type and significant differences in regional motor car ownership in the interwar U.K. economy. We assess the viability of applying mass production strategies such as Ford and General Motors pursued in America. Given the demand-side constraints present in the U.K. market, the price reductions made possible by the exploitation of economies of scale were insufficient to create a mass market. Hence, the relatively low levels of ownership achieved can be seen as a rational response to the constraints perceived by firms.
For many economists, sustained levels of high unemployment in the inter-war years in the UK can b... more For many economists, sustained levels of high unemployment in the inter-war years in the UK can be explained by real wage rigidities-that is, the so-called failure of wages to adjust to changes in demand conditions. Wages, according to this view, were not sufficiently flexible. The lack of flexibility is attributed to minimum wage legislation and centralized union bargaining. 2 The economic'explanation'for high levels of un employment is the inability of employers to drive down the real wage rate. The implication of this interpretation would be ...
For many people the motor vehicle industry symbolises the changing fortunes of the UK economy as ... more For many people the motor vehicle industry symbolises the changing fortunes of the UK economy as a whole. From a position of dominance immediately after the Second World War, the industry is seen as having progressively lost out to competitors from abroad and, in particular, to producers from Germany and Japan, while the recent recovery (particularly in export performance) has been ascribed to growth of Japanese-owned and managed assembly plants in the country. 1 Our concern is with that period after the Second World ...
This paper presents estimates of export and import demand functions for the G7 economies over the... more This paper presents estimates of export and import demand functions for the G7 economies over the period 1956 to 1995 and over two sub-periods 1956-73 and 1974-95. These estimates are used to construct predictions of the equilibrium growth rates for these economies by use of the'Thirlwall's Law'relationship. The estimates are consistent with observed cross country growth patterns over the whole sample and the post 1973 period but are less convincing in the pre 1973 sub-period. It is argued that the slowdown in economic ...
International Journal of Production Economics, 2001
There is now a plethora of non-linear time-series models of output over the business cycle, and c... more There is now a plethora of non-linear time-series models of output over the business cycle, and considerable empirical evidence that there are key non-linear, poorly understood mechanisms at work. Though they account for a small part of the total #ow of national income, inventories play a disproportionately large role in #uctuations in output. It would seem natural to try to determine what role inventories play in the non-linear behaviour of the business cycle. The "rst question is, are there economic models of "rm behaviour suggesting that the movement of inventories over the business cycle is non-linear? The second issue is whether we can detect such non-linearity in the data. In this paper we use data on the aggregate behaviour of UK manufacturing, but disaggregated according to the stage of fabrication. We "nd that the asymmetric adjustment of inventories varies with the stage of fabrication.
This paper presents estimates of the demand for money function and the Phillips curve using quart... more This paper presents estimates of the demand for money function and the Phillips curve using quarterly data for the Mexican economy over the period 1980-–1999. These estimates are used to test restrictions on the dynamic process of the errors and cross-equation parameter restrictions suggested by economic theory. The parameter estimates obtained are used to investigate the stability of the inflation process and the extent to which real seigniorage revenues have been exploited within the Mexican economy.
The purpose of the section is to provide reviews of the wide variety of computer software and rel... more The purpose of the section is to provide reviews of the wide variety of computer software and related material available for use by economists. Products reviewed will include econometrics, statistical and various optimisation and stimulation packages available to economists for use in both teaching and research. From time to time overview articles related to computer software available in particular areas of economics will be published. The section will cover other functional software useful to academic economists (such as spreadsheets, database ...
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimat... more This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimates of the parameters of the equilibrium relationshipbetween a set of variables. We demonstrate that simple least squares estimatesand the implicit estimates from a symmetric error correction model both leadto biases in the constant term. This bias increases with the size of theasymmetry and shows no tendency to decline with the sample size. We also showthat if the biased estimates of the equilibrium relationship are then used todevide the ...
To create an engaging and motivating learning environment, we have developed software which is ba... more To create an engaging and motivating learning environment, we have developed software which is based on estimated parameters for the UK economy. The program allows students to both simulate the effects of economic policy on national income and its components as well as the flexibility to vary key parameters of interest in order to assess the impact on economic performance. In this paper we present the main features of the software and the model on which it is based. We discuss the potential uses of the software within a classroom context and consider two simulations. The first of these is a fiscal expansion designed to bring down unemployment and the second is an exogenous shock to consumption affecting the parameters of the consumption-income relationship. This paper advocates that students' understanding of theoretical models can be greatly enhanced by the addition of practical examples that can be used in lectures and tutorials as well as for independent study.
This article uses the Chow--Lin (1971) procedure to generate estimates of quarterly gross domesti... more This article uses the Chow--Lin (1971) procedure to generate estimates of quarterly gross domestic product for the UK economy over the period January 1920 to April 1938. This series is then used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output.
Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for seri... more Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures ...
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2014
This paper uses a relatively-new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The ... more This paper uses a relatively-new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.
This paper uses quantitative balance sheet liquidity analysis, based upon modified versions of th... more This paper uses quantitative balance sheet liquidity analysis, based upon modified versions of the BCBS (2010) and Moody's (2001) models, to estimate UK banks' short and long-term liquidity positions respectively. The study also presents fundamental financial information to facilitate analysis of banks' business models and funding strategies. Using data for the period 2005-2010, we provide evidence that there have been variable liquidity strains across the UK banks in our sample. The estimated results show that Barclays Bank ...
The concept of elasticity of demand is one of the most important in economics. At its most genera... more The concept of elasticity of demand is one of the most important in economics. At its most general level the elasticity of demand measures the percentage response in demand to a given percentage change in some other variable of interest. For example, we are often interested in the response of demand to changes in the price of the good concerned price–the own price elasticity of demand–but we may also be interested in the response to changes in income–the income elasticity of demand–or changes in the prices of other ...
British clearing banks have often been attacked over their provision of industrial finance. Lever... more British clearing banks have often been attacked over their provision of industrial finance. Lever and Edwards (1980) and Edwards and Carrington (1979) are among the more recent critics ; in their view the failings of the banks in this area are a major cause of Britain's relative economic decline. They emphasize the distortion of the credit system towards easy credit
Distinct diffusion curves are identified by model type and significant differences in regional mo... more Distinct diffusion curves are identified by model type and significant differences in regional motor car ownership in the interwar U.K. economy. We assess the viability of applying mass production strategies such as Ford and General Motors pursued in America. Given the demand-side constraints present in the U.K. market, the price reductions made possible by the exploitation of economies of scale were insufficient to create a mass market. Hence, the relatively low levels of ownership achieved can be seen as a rational response to the constraints perceived by firms.
For many economists, sustained levels of high unemployment in the inter-war years in the UK can b... more For many economists, sustained levels of high unemployment in the inter-war years in the UK can be explained by real wage rigidities-that is, the so-called failure of wages to adjust to changes in demand conditions. Wages, according to this view, were not sufficiently flexible. The lack of flexibility is attributed to minimum wage legislation and centralized union bargaining. 2 The economic'explanation'for high levels of un employment is the inability of employers to drive down the real wage rate. The implication of this interpretation would be ...
For many people the motor vehicle industry symbolises the changing fortunes of the UK economy as ... more For many people the motor vehicle industry symbolises the changing fortunes of the UK economy as a whole. From a position of dominance immediately after the Second World War, the industry is seen as having progressively lost out to competitors from abroad and, in particular, to producers from Germany and Japan, while the recent recovery (particularly in export performance) has been ascribed to growth of Japanese-owned and managed assembly plants in the country. 1 Our concern is with that period after the Second World ...
This paper presents estimates of export and import demand functions for the G7 economies over the... more This paper presents estimates of export and import demand functions for the G7 economies over the period 1956 to 1995 and over two sub-periods 1956-73 and 1974-95. These estimates are used to construct predictions of the equilibrium growth rates for these economies by use of the'Thirlwall's Law'relationship. The estimates are consistent with observed cross country growth patterns over the whole sample and the post 1973 period but are less convincing in the pre 1973 sub-period. It is argued that the slowdown in economic ...
International Journal of Production Economics, 2001
There is now a plethora of non-linear time-series models of output over the business cycle, and c... more There is now a plethora of non-linear time-series models of output over the business cycle, and considerable empirical evidence that there are key non-linear, poorly understood mechanisms at work. Though they account for a small part of the total #ow of national income, inventories play a disproportionately large role in #uctuations in output. It would seem natural to try to determine what role inventories play in the non-linear behaviour of the business cycle. The "rst question is, are there economic models of "rm behaviour suggesting that the movement of inventories over the business cycle is non-linear? The second issue is whether we can detect such non-linearity in the data. In this paper we use data on the aggregate behaviour of UK manufacturing, but disaggregated according to the stage of fabrication. We "nd that the asymmetric adjustment of inventories varies with the stage of fabrication.
This paper presents estimates of the demand for money function and the Phillips curve using quart... more This paper presents estimates of the demand for money function and the Phillips curve using quarterly data for the Mexican economy over the period 1980-–1999. These estimates are used to test restrictions on the dynamic process of the errors and cross-equation parameter restrictions suggested by economic theory. The parameter estimates obtained are used to investigate the stability of the inflation process and the extent to which real seigniorage revenues have been exploited within the Mexican economy.
The purpose of the section is to provide reviews of the wide variety of computer software and rel... more The purpose of the section is to provide reviews of the wide variety of computer software and related material available for use by economists. Products reviewed will include econometrics, statistical and various optimisation and stimulation packages available to economists for use in both teaching and research. From time to time overview articles related to computer software available in particular areas of economics will be published. The section will cover other functional software useful to academic economists (such as spreadsheets, database ...
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimat... more This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimates of the parameters of the equilibrium relationshipbetween a set of variables. We demonstrate that simple least squares estimatesand the implicit estimates from a symmetric error correction model both leadto biases in the constant term. This bias increases with the size of theasymmetry and shows no tendency to decline with the sample size. We also showthat if the biased estimates of the equilibrium relationship are then used todevide the ...
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Papers by Paul Turner