Papers by Charles Stewart
Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 2015
Those looking to improve the performance of elections in the United States often point to issues ... more Those looking to improve the performance of elections in the United States often point to issues involving the voter registration system. A review of this system reveals that it is massive, decentralized, and vital to democratic functioning. The existing scholarly literature, coupled with our own reading of data from the 2012 elections, suggests several ways of improving the system, including adopting online registration for voters, using technology to improve lists and list management, working with private vendors to assess and improve the quality of registration lists, and developing a national list to facilitate analyses of administrative performance and best practices.
PloS one, 2017
In the U.S. presidential election of 2016, substantial shift in voting patterns occurred relative... more In the U.S. presidential election of 2016, substantial shift in voting patterns occurred relative to previous elections. Although this shift has been associated with both education and race, the extent to which this shift was related to public health status is unclear. To determine the extent to which county community health was associated with changes in voting between the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012. Ecological study with principal component analysis (PCA) using principal axis method to extract the components, then generalized linear regression. General community. All counties in the United States. Physically unhealthy days, mentally unhealthy days, percent food insecure, teen birth rate, primary care physician visit rate, age-adjusted mortality rate, violent crime rate, average health care costs, percent diabetic, and percent overweight or obese. The percentage of Donald Trump votes in 2016 minus percentage of Mitt Romney votes in 2012 ("net voting shift"). ...
Before the 17th Amendment went into effect in 1914, the election of United States senators by sta... more Before the 17th Amendment went into effect in 1914, the election of United States senators by state legislatures was one of the most prominent features of American national politics. As important as these elections were, there has been surprisingly little direct analysis of US Senate elections before direct election. George Haynes's 1906 Progressive Era monograph is now a century old. Riker's classic 1955 article on the role of the Senate in American federalism is nearly half a century old and, in any case, delved very little into the direct ...
annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2004
Note: The following paper lays out some of the issues that Wendy Schiller and I are pursuing unde... more Note: The following paper lays out some of the issues that Wendy Schiller and I are pursuing under recently-awarded NSF grant 0518313,���Collaborative Research: The US Senate Election Data Base, 1871-1913.��� The second paper in the duo, which explores actual roll call votes in US Senate elections, is ���Party Control and Legislator Loyalty in Senate Elections before the Adoption of the 17th Amendment,��� which is available at http://web. mit. edu/cstewart/www/stewartandschillerapsa2004_20040826. pdf. Progress in the data- ...
The decentralization of lists has traditionally made it difficult to make a full accounting of th... more The decentralization of lists has traditionally made it difficult to make a full accounting of the performance of the election system that would allow local election offices to gauge how well they are doing. Complete reporting of voter registrations, turnout at the precinct and election office level would improve the ability of election offices to diagnose where problems arise and for offices to see what other counties are doing well. That would aid in the identification of best practices developed among the counties.
It is a great honor to be able to talk with you today about the quality of elections in the Unite... more It is a great honor to be able to talk with you today about the quality of elections in the United States. The reason why we are gathered here today is that all of us-even those of us out of town-are dedicated to making Los Angeles County a model for the rest of the nation in running elections. Of course, I know some people here believe LA is already a model to be emulated, but I also suspect that others have different ideas. As someone who has tried for many years to develop objective measures of how well elections are conducted across this country, I appreciate how difficult it is to run elections here-Los Angeles is the voting equivalent of the reverse 3 1/2 somersault off the three-meter diving board. That such a diverse and knowledgeable group as this would show up to launch an endeavor to improve voting in LA County is remarkable. My expertise is in trying to use data to identify where election problems lie in America, especially at a broad level-such as comparing states with each other or comparing counties with each other. I know that the purpose of today's conference is to think about LA County, but there are lessons to be learned from looking across the country. So, what I thought I would do today is look at the election of 2008 to ask what do the data tell us about the experience of voters nationwide on Election Day? At the end, I'll also say some words about where California fits into national trends-not to put anyone on the spot, but rather, to get us thinking about where the special challenges are in improving elections here. About the quality of election data: not so good Before talking about the election of 2008, let me say a word about what we know about elections in the U.S. and what we think we know about elections in the U.S. To get into this exercise, travel back with me to November 2000. Before the recount in Florida started, what did we know about voting technologies, and what did we think we knew about voting technologies-especially punch cards? On the day after Election Day, it was noticed that well over 29,000 of the 463,000 ballots cast in Palm Beach County seemed not to contain a vote for President. These "missing" 29,000
Public Choice, 2019
Within political science, a movement focused on increasing the credibility of causal inferences (... more Within political science, a movement focused on increasing the credibility of causal inferences (CIs) has gained considerable traction in recent years. While CI has been incorporated extensively into most disciplinary subfields, it has not been applied often in the study of American political development (APD). This special issue considers ways in which scholars of CI and APD can engage in mutually beneficial ways to produce better overall research. As the contributions to the symposium demonstrate, clear scientific gains are to be had from greater CI-APD engagement.
Social Science Quarterly, 2019
Objective: We analyze the significant increase in the residual vote rate in the 2016 presidential... more Objective: We analyze the significant increase in the residual vote rate in the 2016 presidential election. The residual vote rate, which is the percentage of ballots cast in a presidential election that contain no vote for president, rose nationwide from 0.99% to 1.41% between 2012 and 2016. Method: We use election return data and public opinion data to examine why the residual vote rate increased in 2016. Results: The primary explanation for this rise is an increase in abstentions, which we argue results primarily from disaffected Republican voters, rather than alienated Democratic voters. In addition, other factors related to election administration and electoral competition explain variation in the residual vote rates across states, particularly the use of mail/absentee ballots and the lack of competition at the top of the ticket in non-battleground states. However, we note that the rise in the residual vote rate was not due to changes in voting technologies. Conclusion: Our research has implications for the use of the residual vote as a metric for studying election administration and voting technologies.
Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 2011
We study public opinions about convenience voting reforms, using a unique state-by-state survey c... more We study public opinions about convenience voting reforms, using a unique state-by-state survey conducted in the 2008 presidential election. Our analysis of the American voting public's support for convenience voting reforms provides a variety of important insights into the potential direction of innovations in the electoral process in the near future. First, we find that the most prominent convenience voting reforms have mixed support. These include attitudes toward automatic voter registration, Election Day voter registration, and moving Election Day to a weekend. These reforms do not have majority support among all voters nationwide, but some enjoy majority support within some states. Second, we find that Internet voting and voting by mail do not receive a great deal of support from American voters. There is no state in which a majority of voters supports Internet voting, nor are there states where expanded vote-by-mail has majority support (other than states which have already implemented these reforms). Finally, we find that an overwhelming majority of Americans support requiring showing photo identification and a bare majority support making Election Day a holiday. Support for reform is highly correlated with political affiliations and attitudes, and especially correlated with support for Barack Obama.
Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 2015
We review evidence that long lines waiting to vote in the 2012 presidential election were costly ... more We review evidence that long lines waiting to vote in the 2012 presidential election were costly and disproportionately appeared in certain regions of the country, in cities, and among minority voters. We argue that the field of queuing theory helps to frame thinking about polling place lines. Because addressing the problem of long lines requires precise data about polling place dynamics, we conclude by suggesting new approaches to research that are necessary to identify the most effective cure for long lines.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
To what degree is voter confidence in election procedures driven by satisfaction with the outcome... more To what degree is voter confidence in election procedures driven by satisfaction with the outcome of an election, as opposed to trust in government or objective features of the polling place, such as voting technology? Using approximately 30 national surveys over the past decade, we find a consistent relationship between voting for the winner and confidence in election administration. This confidence varies as a function of question wording and electoral context. Respondents are more confident in the quality of the vote count locally than nationally. They are responsive to electoral results at the state and national levels in forming their judgements. And, rather than being influenced by different types of voting technology, respondents lose confidence by virtue of change itself.
In this paper, we examine the attitudes of voters regarding the voting experience in the 2009 gub... more In this paper, we examine the attitudes of voters regarding the voting experience in the 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. We focus especially on the wayi n which voting technology experiences that voters have had affect their confidencein the voting process, their attitudes toward fraud and reform, and other aspects of the voting process. We find that voters are sensitive to the voting mode they use-in person voting compared to absentee voting-as well as to whether they get to vote on the technology they prefer (paper versus electronic). Finally,t he privacy that voters feel in the voting process is also importantin shaping the voter's confidence.
Election policymaking would greatly benefit from metrics-based policymaking, and the development ... more Election policymaking would greatly benefit from metrics-based policymaking, and the development of measures similar to those in policy areas like education and health care. Elections are awash in data, managing elections is increasingly metrics-driven, and a growing network of experts is dedicated to a metrics-based approach to improving elections. A major barrier to the development of metrics-based election administration is uncertainty about the future of the EAC.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013
Waiting in line to vote is the most visible sign of the administrative friction of managing elect... more Waiting in line to vote is the most visible sign of the administrative friction of managing elections. The visibility of long lines makes them a convenient symbol for those who seek to improve election administration. However, absent comprehensive, reliable information about lineswhere they appear, who endures them, and strategies to mitigate them-it is easy to flail at the problem without making much progress. The purpose of this white paper is to lay the groundwork with some evidence about where long lines occur and what is thought to cause them. The major points are these: Long lines are costly. Not only does waiting impose a monetary cost on voters, it discourages some from voting altogether, and ultimately undermines the confidence that citizens have in the electoral process. Long lines are not universal. They are concentrated in a handful of states. Racial minorities tend to wait to vote longer than white voters; city dweller wait longer than suburbanites and rural residents. The scientific field of queuing theory can help frame thinking about polling place lines. This theory helps to clarify the possible causes of inordinately long lines, and suggests strategies for improvements. The research on the effectiveness of strategies to mitigate long lines at the polls is thin. Unlike the problem with voting machines unearthed following the 2000 election, the literature provides no "magic bullets" that can be immediately applied to polling places in time to dramatically improve the voting experience by the 2016 presidential election. The Costs of Lines Long lines at the polling place are often taken to be a sign that something is wrong. This need not always be the case. Lines can also be viewed as a sign that the public is excited by an election or the candidates. This alternative interpretation of lines is often associated with elections in emerging democracies, as the following Associated Press report from the 2005 Iraq general election suggests:
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
Uploads
Papers by Charles Stewart