frank stech

MITRE, Social, behavioral, linguistics sciences, Faculty Member

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Steven Pinker

Harvard University

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University College Cork

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Lancaster University

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Pennsylvania State University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

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Ucla

Stephen Marrin

James Madison University

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The University of Sheffield

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Slovak Academy of Sciences

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University of Trento

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Books by frank stech

Estimates of Peactime Soviet Naval Intentions

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Papers by frank stech

Looking to the Future

Advances in information security, 2015

Cyber Denial, Deception and Counter Deception: A Framework for Supporting Active Cyber Defense

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Midway Revisited: Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Military operations research, Dec 1, 2007

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Science of Coercion: Communication Research and Psychological Warfare 1945-1960

Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 1996

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Human Nature and Cyber Weaponry: Use of Denial and Deception in Cyber Counterintelligence

Advanced sciences and technologies for security applications, 2018

With the increase use of cyber weapons for Internet-based cyber espionage, the need for cyber cou... more With the increase use of cyber weapons for Internet-based cyber espionage, the need for cyber counterintelligence has become apparent, but counterintelligence remains more art than science because of its focus on tricking human nature—the way people think, feel, and behave. Nevertheless, counterintelligence theory and practice have been extended to domains such as industry and finance, and can be applied to cyber security and active cyber defense. Nonetheless, there are relatively few explicit counterintelligence applications to cyber security reported in the open literature. This chapter describes the mechanisms of cyber denial and deception operations, using a cyber deception methods matrix and a cyber deception chain to build a tailored active cyber defense system for cyber counterintelligence. Cyber counterintelligence with cyber deception can mitigate cyber spy actions within the cyber espionage “kill chain.” The chapter describes how defenders can apply cyber denial and deception in their cyber counterintelligence operations to mitigate a cyber espionage threat and thwart cyber spies. The chapter provides a hypothetical case, based on real cyber espionage operations by a state actor.

Winter Review Essays

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, 1997

rivers snake down through the lush green to the Channel, favoring the invader with routes of adva... more rivers snake down through the lush green to the Channel, favoring the invader with routes of advance, but slowing him with soggy marches. And one can contemplate, from the great distance of space and time, the wide sandy stretches of beach, labeled so simply on D-Day, so serene today, so marked forever in blood that singular day.

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Considerations, Adaptation, and Sharing

Advances in Information Security, 2015

Adaptability and agility are essential in planning, preparing, and executing deception operations... more Adaptability and agility are essential in planning, preparing, and executing deception operations. Deception planners must be prepared to respond so that they can still achieve their goals even when it seems that everything is going wrong. This chapter brings together considerations for the cyber-D&D planner, covering the realities of utilizing cyber-D&D. Applying cyber-D&D poses risk and has the potential for unintended consequences. Cyber-D&D operations can be compromised, and even the best-laid plans can fail. Although the defender can gain advantages by using D&D in each phase of the kill chain, utilizing cyber-D&D TTPs always involves challenges and potential drawbacks. We review some of these to inform and encourage cyber-D&D cadres to explore these considerations early in the planning phases of cyber-D&D operations.

Cyber-D&D Case Studies

Advances in information security, 2015

To highlight the benefits and challenges associated with cyber-D&D and explore aspects of ope... more To highlight the benefits and challenges associated with cyber-D&D and explore aspects of operational implementation, we present two case studies: one based on accounts of the Stuxnet intrusion that damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and the other a notional depiction of an espionage-motivated intrusion. The Stuxnet cyber-sabotage case showcases extensive use of offensive cyber-D&D at the technique, tactical, operational, and strategic levels. The fictional case study illustrates how elements of cyber-D&D can be used defensively against APT attempts at cyber espionage.

[PDF]A Behavioral Model of Team Sensemaking

The International C2 Journal was created in 2006 at the urging of an international group of comma... more The International C2 Journal was created in 2006 at the urging of an international group of command and control professionals including individuals from academia, industry, government, and the military. The Command and Control Research Program (CCRP, of the U.S. Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration, or OASD-NII) responded to this need by bringing together interested professionals to shape the purpose and guide the execution of such a journal. Today, the Journal is overseen by an Editorial Board comprising representatives from many nations. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency.

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Outguessed and One-behind: The Real Story of The Man Who Never Was

Invited presentation to “Sixty Years On (revisiting World War II): An International Conference,” Conflict Studies Research Group, History & Governance Research Institute, University of Wolverhampton, UK, 1-3 July 2004., 2004

How were German Intelligence and Hitler fooled by the hackneyed "lost haversack" ruse, hoodwinked... more How were German Intelligence and Hitler fooled by the hackneyed "lost haversack" ruse, hoodwinked by Major William Martin, The Man Who Never Was? The answer depends on knowing where the real story begins. Deception … demands …good psychology-a commodity not always available. 1 Sir Michael Howard, official historian of World War II deception operations.

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Kevin BurnsTHE INTERNATIONAL C2 JOURNAL

About the Journal The International C2 Journal was created in 2006 at the urging of an internatio... more About the Journal The International C2 Journal was created in 2006 at the urging of an international group of command and control professionals including individuals from academia, industry, government, and the military. The Command and Control Research Program (CCRP, of the U.S. Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration, or OASD-NII) responded to this need by bringing together interested professionals to shape the purpose and guide the execution of such a journal. Today, the Journal is overseen by an Editorial Board comprising representatives from many nations. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Rights and Permissions: All articles published in the International C2 Journal remain the intellectual property of the authors and may not be distributed or sold without...

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Scientometrics of Deception, Counter-deception, and Deception Detection in Cyber-space

The concepts of deception, counter-deception, and deception detection in the cyber-space domain h... more The concepts of deception, counter-deception, and deception detection in the cyber-space domain have been the subject of little systematic analysis. Our objective was to conduct scientometric analyses of these concepts in the cyber-space domain. We observed the following: Although various deceptive tactics are addressed in the cyber-security literature, it appears they are characterized more from the standpoint of technology than from their social, behavioral, or cognitive elements; these cyber-tactics are not mapped into the classic components of denial and deception tactics; there is no conventional terminology to describe the phenomenon of deception in cyber-space; classic deception domain terminology is rarely used; and classic deception domain researchers are rarely cited. These observations suggest that cyber-deception is an emerging field.

Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

This paper describes the central component of a system to assist intelligence analysts detect dec... more This paper describes the central component of a system to assist intelligence analysts detect deception. We describe how deceptions exploit cognitive limits and biases and review prior work on processes that can help people recognize organized deceptions. Our process is based on Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, which we automate by generating state-based plans and converting them to Bayesian belief networks. Our decision aid uses a concept from Bayesian classification to identify distinguishing evidence that a deceiver must hide and a counter-deceiver must uncover. We illustrate the process with one of the most Century.

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Erratum to: Integrating Cyber-D&D into Adversary Modeling for Active Cyber Defense

Cyber Deception

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Detecting Deception

Chapman & Hall/CRC Computer & Information Science Series, 2006

Scientometrics of Deception, Counter-deception, and Deception Detection in Cyber-space

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Scientometric Analysis of Chinese Cyber-Denial and Deception Research

International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism, 2015

A scientometrics analysis was conducted of the People's Republic of China (PRC) science and t... more A scientometrics analysis was conducted of the People's Republic of China (PRC) science and technology literature, with a focus on cyber-denial and deception (cyber-D&D). The objectives of this study were to identify leading Chinese cyber-D&D researchers and research institutions; cyber-D&D research topics, keywords, and terminology; and networks among researchers, institutions, and topics. The scientometrics analysis revealed that Chinese researchers have published papers on the following cyber-D&D topics: computer crime, spam, honeypots, phishing, and spoofing. A number of universities are conducting cyber-D&D research. Tsinghua University and National University of Defense Technology were identified as producing the greatest number of articles related to cyber-D&D. Two of the most prolific cyber-D&D authors, J Bi and Jinbo Wu, are affiliated with Tsinghua University.

Methods of Estimating Strategic Intentions

This task compares the analytical aids in the context of the Intention estimation process. Genera... more This task compares the analytical aids in the context of the Intention estimation process. General criteria that apply to the comparison Include: 3 VT Chapter II of th I report covers Tasks I and 2. the descrIpt l.n of the intention estimation process and the description of analy t ical aids pertinent to that process. Chapter III covers Tasks 3 and portions of 4. the comparlson of analytical aids and their evaluations. The summary catalogue of aids Is presented In Chapter IV. Major conclusions that are drawn from this project are: 1. Estimation of intentions may usefully draw upon a variety of analytical aids.

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Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

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Estimates of Peactime Soviet Naval Intentions

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Looking to the Future

Advances in information security, 2015

Cyber Denial, Deception and Counter Deception: A Framework for Supporting Active Cyber Defense

Download

Midway Revisited: Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Military operations research, Dec 1, 2007

Download

Science of Coercion: Communication Research and Psychological Warfare 1945-1960

Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 1996

Download

Human Nature and Cyber Weaponry: Use of Denial and Deception in Cyber Counterintelligence

Advanced sciences and technologies for security applications, 2018

Winter Review Essays

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, 1997

Download

Considerations, Adaptation, and Sharing

Advances in Information Security, 2015

Cyber-D&D Case Studies

Advances in information security, 2015

[PDF]A Behavioral Model of Team Sensemaking

Download

Outguessed and One-behind: The Real Story of The Man Who Never Was

Download

Kevin BurnsTHE INTERNATIONAL C2 JOURNAL

Download

Scientometrics of Deception, Counter-deception, and Deception Detection in Cyber-space

Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Download

Erratum to: Integrating Cyber-D&D into Adversary Modeling for Active Cyber Defense

Cyber Deception

Download

Detecting Deception

Chapman & Hall/CRC Computer & Information Science Series, 2006

Scientometrics of Deception, Counter-deception, and Deception Detection in Cyber-space

Download

Scientometric Analysis of Chinese Cyber-Denial and Deception Research

International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism, 2015

Methods of Estimating Strategic Intentions

Download

Detecting Deception by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Download

Midway revisited: detecting deception by analysis of competing hypothesis

Historical accounts of military deception abound, but there are few historical accounts of counte... more Historical accounts of military deception abound, but there are few historical accounts of counter-deception, and fewer operational theories. This paper describes a business process and semi-automated tools for detecting deception. Our prototype counter-deception business process starts with hypothesis generation. For tactical situations, this consists of automated course of action generation. Strategic situations rely on elicitation from analysts. Next, a Bayesian belief network is generated. This is followed by sensitivity analysis based on Bayesian classification. The result is a weighted list of possible observations that: (1) identify distinguishing evidence that a deceiver must hide and a counterdeceiver must uncover, (2) isolate local deception in intelligence reporting and sensing from global deception, and (3) identify circumstances when it might be fruitful to entertain additional hypotheses. We illustrate this model by describing how it could have been used by the Japanese Navy before the Battle of Midway to detect the American denial and deception tactics that allowed the U.S. Pacific Fleet aircraft carriers to ambush and sink four Japanese carriers.

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