Scott A Mongeau
Dr Scott Allen Mongeau is an international data analytics expert, lecturer, and researcher. He trains and advises organizations to plan, design, and implement data science, AI/ML, big data, and analytics solutions.
Scott holds a PhD in Management Research focused on Information Systems (MIS) from Nyenrode Business University, two post-graduate certifications in Finance (MFM Erasmus RSM & Finance Certificate UC Berkeley Extension), an international executive MBA (MBA Erasmus RSM), and post-graduate degrees in IT Management (GD Information Systems Management) and Communication Technology (MA U of Texas Austin).
Scott is a Certified Analytics Professional (CAP), Chartered Scientist with the OR Society, and a Google Cloud Engineer specializing in Data Analytics.
Supervisors: Andrzej Hajdasinski and Henry Robben
Phone: +31-6-42353427
Scott holds a PhD in Management Research focused on Information Systems (MIS) from Nyenrode Business University, two post-graduate certifications in Finance (MFM Erasmus RSM & Finance Certificate UC Berkeley Extension), an international executive MBA (MBA Erasmus RSM), and post-graduate degrees in IT Management (GD Information Systems Management) and Communication Technology (MA U of Texas Austin).
Scott is a Certified Analytics Professional (CAP), Chartered Scientist with the OR Society, and a Google Cloud Engineer specializing in Data Analytics.
Supervisors: Andrzej Hajdasinski and Henry Robben
Phone: +31-6-42353427
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Papers by Scott A Mongeau
Responding to a rising interest in improving organizational decision making via business analytics techniques and technologies, this paper proposes the use of Social Network Analysis (SNA) as a tool to foster the structured planning and implementation of analytics-driven decision-making change initiatives.
Approach
A succinct literature review provides a theoretical foundation for the application of SNA to elucidate decision patterns in organizations. Charting the structural aspects of social networks, SNA is proposed as a suitable method for hybridizing existing research agendas concerning organizational decision effectiveness and analytics maturity as drivers of firm value. It is proposed that significant correlations between SNA decision network structures and firm performance exist.
Findings
It is hypothesized that organizational decision network patterns mediate both decision effectiveness and analytics maturity as correlated with firm performance. The literature review results in a proposed conceptual model for a substantial research project.
Implications
With an operational measure of decision network fitness proposed, more and less effective organizational decision network patterns can be specified. Firms seeking to adopt evidence-based management via improved analytics-driven decision making can use mapped social networks as a guide to organizational planning and change management programs. Potential challenges and avenues for further research are suggested.
Value
Establishing a method for measuring systems-mediated organizational decision network effectiveness provides a benchmark for firms seeking to strengthen their analytical capabilities in order to make better informed tactical and strategic decisions in environments of growing complexity and information overload.
* WACC
Many R&D projects use the risk free rate or 5% as a default
* Hedging
Simulation revealed distinct project risks associated with the Euro/$ exchange rate and core commodity price fluctuations (corn, bioethanol). Such risks can be actively ‘hedged’ via derivative instruments.
* Commodity Analysis
Considering the importance of relevant commodity prices to the core business scenario, a deeper analysis of commodity trends and forecasts is justified (i.e.: comprehensive regression analysis and forecasting). Considering the value destroying and enhancing power of commodity prices to the project profit/loss profile, spending time to anticipate commodity price movements and reacting accordingly has a very high cost/benefit ratio.
* Customer Finance
Biofuel plants are a capital intensive and risky line of business. Consider the example of other firms in similar lines of business who have created Customer Finance facilities to proctor customers and create advantageous markets
* Market Competition Simulations
A rudimentary market simulation is conducted. It is recommended that a more refined market simulation, validated by internal stakeholders, would prove quite valuable in guiding strategy formation for the productization of innovations.
* Biofuel Plant NPV Monte Carlo Model
It is suggested the BIO-INC. White Biotech consider building and maintaining a generic, biofuel plant NPV model. This would serve as a platform for staging future NPV analysis, valuing prospective products, measuring costs, evaluating new processes, and judge revenues.
* ROA as Process / Project Risk Management
ROA as a process can be considered an aspect of the formal discipline of Project Risk Management, which is ideally an organizational process. ROA assumes a structured dialogue with key stakeholders and adoption of the premises and techniques associated with ROA into existing organizational decision making processes.
* Validation Process / Decision Making
This case study demonstrates an example ROA exercise; comprehensive conclusions should not be drawn from the models demonstrated without an internal validation process by internal stakeholders to verify assumptions made.
Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE:SAB), and available via the US OTC market (OTC:SBMRF), is a global brewing and bottling group. Founded in South Africa in 1895, SABMiller today is an international enterprise with a market value of £21 billion, producing a range of premium beers, including six numbering amongst the top 50 brands in the world: Pilsner Urquell, Peroni, Miller Genuine Draft, Miler Lite, Castle and Grolsch. The Grolsch brand, previously purveyed by 392-year-old Royal Grolsch NV,
was the target of a notable acquisition in the brewery industry in November of 2007, with SABMiller paying a premium €816 million ($1.2bn; £583m), an 84% premium over Grolsch’s then share price. A premium price for a premium band, the acquisition of Grolsch added a northern European product to
SABMiller’s portfolio and expanded its native and foreign market share. Riding a wave of merger mania in the brewing industry, hindsight and the global recession ask: was it worth it? This case study takes a close look at the fundamentals in addressing this question.
This report examines value management in the biofuel industry by examining three companies headquartered in distinct global cities: Abengoa SA in Seville, Spain; Cosan in Piracicaba, Brazil; and Verenium in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Each has approached this growing but volatile new industry according to unique strengths, regional situations, approaches to value management, and corporate governance structures. Theirs is a tale of global ambition, competition, advanced science, shifting alliances, and the race to create a more sustainable global energy supply. In scrutinizing core value management practices we seek not only comparative insight, but to understand the evolving character of a rapidly emerging new industry.
into prospective market pricing thresholds for
advanced (2G) bioethanol products and services. The
paper proposes a structured, customer-focused,
integrated approach to model advanced bioethanol
plants as a way to isolate and determine the
component value-add of proposed product innovations
as an aspect of customer Net Present Value (NPV).
As well, it is recommended that the NPV analysis be
enhanced with stochastic (Monte Carlo) analysis in
order to determine price elasticity (based on plant
profit volatility) and to provide sensitivity analysis
guidance for risk management. A thorough discussion
of the logic for this approach is provided.
ideal VR, this project also more generally seeks to critique advancing communication
technology and the breakdown of meaning in the modern hyperreal world.
Responding to a rising interest in improving organizational decision making via business analytics techniques and technologies, this paper proposes the use of Social Network Analysis (SNA) as a tool to foster the structured planning and implementation of analytics-driven decision-making change initiatives.
Approach
A succinct literature review provides a theoretical foundation for the application of SNA to elucidate decision patterns in organizations. Charting the structural aspects of social networks, SNA is proposed as a suitable method for hybridizing existing research agendas concerning organizational decision effectiveness and analytics maturity as drivers of firm value. It is proposed that significant correlations between SNA decision network structures and firm performance exist.
Findings
It is hypothesized that organizational decision network patterns mediate both decision effectiveness and analytics maturity as correlated with firm performance. The literature review results in a proposed conceptual model for a substantial research project.
Implications
With an operational measure of decision network fitness proposed, more and less effective organizational decision network patterns can be specified. Firms seeking to adopt evidence-based management via improved analytics-driven decision making can use mapped social networks as a guide to organizational planning and change management programs. Potential challenges and avenues for further research are suggested.
Value
Establishing a method for measuring systems-mediated organizational decision network effectiveness provides a benchmark for firms seeking to strengthen their analytical capabilities in order to make better informed tactical and strategic decisions in environments of growing complexity and information overload.
* WACC
Many R&D projects use the risk free rate or 5% as a default
* Hedging
Simulation revealed distinct project risks associated with the Euro/$ exchange rate and core commodity price fluctuations (corn, bioethanol). Such risks can be actively ‘hedged’ via derivative instruments.
* Commodity Analysis
Considering the importance of relevant commodity prices to the core business scenario, a deeper analysis of commodity trends and forecasts is justified (i.e.: comprehensive regression analysis and forecasting). Considering the value destroying and enhancing power of commodity prices to the project profit/loss profile, spending time to anticipate commodity price movements and reacting accordingly has a very high cost/benefit ratio.
* Customer Finance
Biofuel plants are a capital intensive and risky line of business. Consider the example of other firms in similar lines of business who have created Customer Finance facilities to proctor customers and create advantageous markets
* Market Competition Simulations
A rudimentary market simulation is conducted. It is recommended that a more refined market simulation, validated by internal stakeholders, would prove quite valuable in guiding strategy formation for the productization of innovations.
* Biofuel Plant NPV Monte Carlo Model
It is suggested the BIO-INC. White Biotech consider building and maintaining a generic, biofuel plant NPV model. This would serve as a platform for staging future NPV analysis, valuing prospective products, measuring costs, evaluating new processes, and judge revenues.
* ROA as Process / Project Risk Management
ROA as a process can be considered an aspect of the formal discipline of Project Risk Management, which is ideally an organizational process. ROA assumes a structured dialogue with key stakeholders and adoption of the premises and techniques associated with ROA into existing organizational decision making processes.
* Validation Process / Decision Making
This case study demonstrates an example ROA exercise; comprehensive conclusions should not be drawn from the models demonstrated without an internal validation process by internal stakeholders to verify assumptions made.
Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE:SAB), and available via the US OTC market (OTC:SBMRF), is a global brewing and bottling group. Founded in South Africa in 1895, SABMiller today is an international enterprise with a market value of £21 billion, producing a range of premium beers, including six numbering amongst the top 50 brands in the world: Pilsner Urquell, Peroni, Miller Genuine Draft, Miler Lite, Castle and Grolsch. The Grolsch brand, previously purveyed by 392-year-old Royal Grolsch NV,
was the target of a notable acquisition in the brewery industry in November of 2007, with SABMiller paying a premium €816 million ($1.2bn; £583m), an 84% premium over Grolsch’s then share price. A premium price for a premium band, the acquisition of Grolsch added a northern European product to
SABMiller’s portfolio and expanded its native and foreign market share. Riding a wave of merger mania in the brewing industry, hindsight and the global recession ask: was it worth it? This case study takes a close look at the fundamentals in addressing this question.
This report examines value management in the biofuel industry by examining three companies headquartered in distinct global cities: Abengoa SA in Seville, Spain; Cosan in Piracicaba, Brazil; and Verenium in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Each has approached this growing but volatile new industry according to unique strengths, regional situations, approaches to value management, and corporate governance structures. Theirs is a tale of global ambition, competition, advanced science, shifting alliances, and the race to create a more sustainable global energy supply. In scrutinizing core value management practices we seek not only comparative insight, but to understand the evolving character of a rapidly emerging new industry.
into prospective market pricing thresholds for
advanced (2G) bioethanol products and services. The
paper proposes a structured, customer-focused,
integrated approach to model advanced bioethanol
plants as a way to isolate and determine the
component value-add of proposed product innovations
as an aspect of customer Net Present Value (NPV).
As well, it is recommended that the NPV analysis be
enhanced with stochastic (Monte Carlo) analysis in
order to determine price elasticity (based on plant
profit volatility) and to provide sensitivity analysis
guidance for risk management. A thorough discussion
of the logic for this approach is provided.
ideal VR, this project also more generally seeks to critique advancing communication
technology and the breakdown of meaning in the modern hyperreal world.
Driven by a futuristic vision of sustainable urban environments, the Smart Cities concept has excited the enthusiasm and imagination of a broad range of stakeholders. With over 50% of the Earth's population living in urban areas, a number predicted to top 70% by 2050 (according to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs), it is clear that better architected cities would greatly benefit broad human welfare. The most rapidly growing urban areas are in developed countries, where squalor and environmental degradation threaten to steadily move hand-in-hand with so-called progress. Clearly, while there is the luxury to speculate on such utopian visions as the Smart City currently, the inertia of urbanisation combined with global population growth, climate change, socio-economic instability, and natural resource constraints promise to make this a more pressing and urgent need in the next two decades. However, is this but a case of a buzzword propelled by well-meaning hype? While a great deal of speculative scenarios have been spun advocating the Smart City vision, tangible specifics are at best diffuse and at worst tenuous. What are the operational prospects for streamlining future cities? Moreover, what of the implied complex problems which inter-system urban dependencies create? The biggest stumbling block to Smart Cities is the inability of focused stakeholders to make complex decisions in environments of complexity.
1. Profitable sustainable energy projects
2. Palisade as facilitating tool
3. Biofuel project as example
• Examples using Palisade Decision Suite
• Economic phenomenon
– Drive to marginal optimality
– Perverse incentives
– ‘The tragedy of the commons’ and free-riders
• Sustainability project characteristics
– Marginally profitable
– Highly sensitive
– Requires systemic engineering / optimization
• Coordinated management of systemic complexity
– Core NPV variance analysis
– Profitable systemic market scenarios
• Leadership gap:
– Transcend politics and sentiment
– Need for market-based solutions
Some general aspects of CSDS as an emerging professional practice:
• CSDS is data focused, applies quantitative, algorithmic, and probabilistic methods, attempts to quantify risk, focuses on producing focused and efficacious alerts, promotes inferential methods to categorize behavioral patterns, and ultimately seeks to optimize cybersecurity operations.
• CSDS represents a partial paradigm shift from traditional cybersecurity approaches, which are rule-and-signature-based and focus on boundary protection.
• CSDS seeks situational awareness and assumes persistent and prolific threats which may be human, automated, or 'cyborg' in origin.
• CDSD goals connect historically with cybersecurity continuous monitoring and forensics functions in particular.
• CSDS has emerged from two parent domains which themselves are undergoing rapid transformation. As such, the 'body of theory' surrounding CSDS is still evolving.
• CSDS has evidenced pragmatic successes using analytics and machine learning in focused use-cases such as spam filtering, phishing email detection, malware and virus detection, network monitoring, and endpoint protection.
• Applied CSDS involves addressing cybersecurity challenges with data science prescriptions and implies a gap analysis is conducted.