Papers by Janvier Nkurunziza
Policy Research Working Papers, 2021
The opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and are not to be taken as the of... more The opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and are not to be taken as the official views of the UNCTAD secretariat or its member States. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This report has not been formally edited.
About African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) African Economic Research Consortium, establish... more About African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) African Economic Research Consortium, established in 1988, is a premier capacity building institution in the advancement of research and training to inform economic policies in sub-Saharan Africa. It is one of the most active Research and Capacity Building Institutions (RCBIs) in the world, with a focus on Africa. AERC's mission rests on two premises: First, that development is more likely to occur where there is sustained sound management of the economy. Second, that such management is more likely to happen where there is an active, well-informed cadre of locally-based professional economists to conduct policy-relevant research. AERC builds that cadre through a programme that has three primary components: research, training and policy outreach. The organization has now emerged as a premier capacity building network institution integrating high quality economic policy research, postgraduate training and policy outreach within a vast network of researchers, universities and policy makers across Africa and beyond. AERC has increasingly received global acclaim for its quality products and services, and is ranked highly among global development think tanks..
The business sector in Burundi is dominated by small firms, with a median firm size of seven perm... more The business sector in Burundi is dominated by small firms, with a median firm size of seven permanent workers. This has implications for firm resilience, access to resources, productivity and welfare. Large firms are more resilient, more productive, offer higher wages and other job-related benefits, and have a better access to resources. The question explored in this paper is whether supporting MSMEs in a fragile state like Burundi could increase welfare. This issue should be analyzed using panel data, which is not yet available. Relying on cross-sectional data, there are indications that welfare could not be improved just through the provision of loans to MSMEs. Other channels could include the fostering of female entrepreneurship, increasing training, helping firms to grow, and focusing aid on MSMSEs outside the capital city where entrepreneurship suffers from the urban bias.
This note outlines the challenges faced by commodity-dependent countries that are vulnerable to v... more This note outlines the challenges faced by commodity-dependent countries that are vulnerable to volatile commodity export prices. The note discusses the reasons why commodity dependence can have negative effects on growth and development in a country and identifies which individual commodities and commodity groups display the most volatile prices. Based on the classification of 191 countries into different commodity export dependence groups, and the level of concentration of each country’s exports, the note finds a statistically significant relationship between concentration, the level of development (as proxied by country group) and the type of commodity each country exports. This indicates that the type of commodity dependence matters for development. The note concludes with a brief discussion of horizontal and targeted policy measures to foster economic and export diversification in commodity-dependent countries. United Nations TD/B/C.I/MEM.2/42
The amount of illicit financial flows out of Africa is staggering. According to estimates by Glob... more The amount of illicit financial flows out of Africa is staggering. According to estimates by Global Financial Integrity (GFI), these flows amounted to between USD 854 billion and $1.8 trillion over the period 1970-2008 (GFI 2010). Another study found that the cumulated amount of capital flight out of Sub-Saharan Africa over the same period is in excess of $700 billion (Ndikumana and Boyce 2011). It is ironic that out of the six countries with the highest average capital flight over the period 2000 to 2008, namely Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, four had poverty rates above the African average in 2008. Moreover, five out of eight countries with the highest capital flight in Africa are classified as low human development countries (UNDP 2011).
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This paper analyses the relationship between income per capita and entrepreneurship, defined as t... more This paper analyses the relationship between income per capita and entrepreneurship, defined as the number of limited liability firms per 1000 active persons, registered in a country in one year. Using data on Africa and other regions, the paper finds that the relationship between entrepreneurship and income per capita is U-shaped and identifies an income threshold estimated at $7300 above which income per capita is associated with increasing entrepreneurship. This result is interpreted in the light of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Theory. Ceteris paribus, at low levels of income per capita, entrepreneurs establish firms as a survival strategy as they do not have access to well-paid employment. As incomes rise up to the $7300 threshold, the need to engage in necessity entrepreneurship declines. Paid employment provides higher risk-adjusted income than survival entrepreneurship. Beyond the threshold, high level of income per capita allows people who would otherwise be in paid emplo...
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Africa's image as a war-prone region with bleak economic prospects is changing. Most of the confl... more Africa's image as a war-prone region with bleak economic prospects is changing. Most of the conflicts that raged in the 1980s and 1990s have ended. For the first time in 50 years, there are currently more cases of post-conflict than conflict countries. Thus, instead of focusing on conflict resolution, it is time that more attention is given to post-conflict reconstruction, understood in terms of physical and non-physical capital accumulation. Domestic savings, fiscal revenue, foreign aid and capital flight repatriation are important funding modalities of reconstruction. Therefore, one of the priorities of post-conflict reconstruction must be to put in place the necessary institutional and physical infrastructure to rebuild the financial systems, limit capital flight and foster capital repatriation, and adopt policies that encourage the donor community to provide and sustain large amounts of aid-the main source of funding of the reconstruction process in the short to medium term following a civil war.
The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS), directed by Stefano Bartolini since Septe... more The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS), directed by Stefano Bartolini since September 2006, is home to a large post-doctoral programme. Created in 1992, it aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research and to promote work on the major issues facing the process of integration and European society. The Centre hosts major research programmes and projects, and a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration and the expanding membership of the European Union.
Horizontal Inequalities and Post-Conflict Development, 2012
ABSTRACT Burundi is a war-torn country. Since its independence in 1962, it has experienced five e... more ABSTRACT Burundi is a war-torn country. Since its independence in 1962, it has experienced five episodes of civil war. Many analysts have portrayed Burundi's political turmoil as being essentially the consequence of ethnic fights between the country's two main groups, Hutus and Tutsis, but this characterization is simplistic. A more serious analysis shows that civil wars in Burundi have been associated with deep- rooted grievances resulting from a divisive governance system. Until the 2005 elections, political and to a great extent economic power were controlled by a small elite whose members were mostly natives of the South of the country. Members of this group have enjoyed the spoils of power while keeping the rest of the population in misery. In 2005, after a protracted civil war, elections brought to power a new leadership which emerged from the traditionally underprivileged segment of society. Three years in power could be considered as a short period to judge the performance of the current leaders. However, three years are sufficient to signal the policy direction the leadership wants the country to follow. We analyze fiscal policies to determine the extent to which they intend to reduce socio-economic inequalities in the country. Our early analysis reveals three types of policies. First, key decisions have been made because they had a direct positive effect on the welfare of the new and old elites, with very little positive impact on the population. Second, analysis of budget allocations shows that they overly benefit the new elite. Third, some populist policies with a semblance of egalitarianism have been announced but poorly implemented either due to resource constraints or because they were not properly thought through. On the whole, despite the fact that most members of the current leadership endured the most the consequences of inequalities before their ascension to power, their post-conflict fiscal policies do not signal that fighting inequality is a policy priority.
This study analyses Burundi’s economic performance over the period 1960–2000 and finds that it ha... more This study analyses Burundi’s economic performance over the period 1960–2000 and finds that it has been catastrophic. The usual economic factors explaining growth are endogenous to political decisions, suggesting that it is politics first not economics that is responsible for the dismal performance. This picture particularly limits the relevance of textbook models that rely on the assumption of a competitive resource allocation rule. When cronies rather than qualified managers are running the economy, when priority is given to investment projects in function of their location rather than the objective needs of the economy, the economic model loses its explanatory power. Economic performance has been shaped by the occurrence of violent conflicts caused by factions fighting for the control of the state and its rents. The capture of rents by a small group has become the overarching objective of the governments that have ruled the country since shortly after its independence. Therefore,...
The purposes of this paper include (a) a review of the literature on the so-called "African ... more The purposes of this paper include (a) a review of the literature on the so-called "African dummy;" (b) an explication of the system GMM method of estimation, by which Hoeffler (2002) shows the "Africa dummy" to be an artifact of the application of inappropriate estimation techniques; and (c) an effort to employ this technique to measure the impact of political variables - measures of stability, regime type, and violence - on economic growth in Africa.
Review of Development Economics
African Development Review
Timing and Sequencing of Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Peacebuilding, 2016
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Papers by Janvier Nkurunziza