Marine Board-ESF The Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its member organisations t... more Marine Board-ESF The Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its member organisations to develop common priorities, to advance marine research, and to bridge the gap between science and policy in order to meet future marine science challenges and opportunities. The Marine Board was established in 1995 to facilitate enhanced cooperation between European marine science organisations (both research institutes and
Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the sp... more Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0uC isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0uC. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0uC-2uC on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0uC and 3uC, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0uC isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006.
This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify... more This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.
Page 1. Vol. 130, No. 3 The American Naturalist September 1987 ANTIPREDATOR BEHAVIOR AND THE POPU... more Page 1. Vol. 130, No. 3 The American Naturalist September 1987 ANTIPREDATOR BEHAVIOR AND THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SIMPLE PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEMS Anthony R. Ives and Andrew P. Dobson* Department ...
Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spre... more Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spread through pilchard populations in Australia at a rate in excess of 10 000 km year)1 , and morbillivirus infections in seals and dolphins have spread at more than 3000 km year)1. In terrestrial environments, only the epidemics of myxomatosis and calicivirus in Australian rabbits and West Nile Virus in birds in North America have rates of spread in excess of 1000 km year)1. The rapid rates of spread of these epidemics has been attributed to flying insect vectors, but flying vectors have not been proposed for any marine pathogen. The most likely explanation for the relatively rapid spread of marine pathogens is the lack of barriers to dispersal in some parts of the ocean, and the potential for long-term survival of pathogens outside the host. These findings caution that pathogens may pose a particularly severe problem in the ocean. There is a need to develop epidemic models capable of generating these high rates of spread and obtain more estimates of disease spread rate.
Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, varia... more Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, variation in local fire characteristics, has been proposed as a driver of biodiversity although empirical evidence is equivocal. Using a new measure of pyrodiversity (Hempson et al.), we undertook the first continent-wide assessment of how pyrodiversity affects biodiversity in protected areas across African savannas. The influence of pyrodiversity on bird and mammal species richness varied with rainfall: strongest support for a positive effect occurred in wet savannas (> 650 mm/year), where species richness increased by 27% for mammals and 40% for birds in the most pyrodiverse regions. Range-restricted birds were most increased by pyrodiversity, suggesting the diversity of fire regimes increases the availability of rare niches. Our findings are significant because they explain the conflicting results found in previous studies of savannas. We argue that managing savanna landscapes to increa...
Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation orga... more Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation organizations throughout the world because they enable fast and responsive adaptive management policies. While the collection of image data from camera traps, satellites, and manned or unmanned aircraft has advanced significantly, the detection and identification of animals within images remains a major bottleneck since counting is primarily conducted by dedicated enumerators or citizen scientists. Recent developments in the field of computer vision suggest a potential resolution to this issue through the use of rotation-invariant object descriptors combined with machine learning algorithms. Here we implement an algorithm to detect and count wildebeest from aerial images collected in the Serengeti National Park in 2009 as part of the biennial wildebeest count. We find that the per image error rates are greater than, but comparable to, two separate human counts. For the total count, the algorithm is more accurate than both manual counts, suggesting that human counters have a tendency to systematically over or under count images. While the accuracy of the algorithm is not yet at an acceptable level for fully automatic counts, our results show this method is a promising avenue for further research and we highlight specific areas where future research should focus in order to develop fast and accurate enumeration of aerial count data. If combined with a bespoke image collection protocol, this approach may yield a fully automated wildebeest count in the near future.
Trade decisions made by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species must place sc... more Trade decisions made by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species must place science over politics.
The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological ... more The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological phenomenon. A proposed road project threatens to bisect the Serengeti ecosystem and its integrity. The precautionary principle dictates that we consider the possible consequences of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatiallyexplicit simulation model of wildebeest movement and population dynamics to explore how placing a barrier to migration across the proposed route (thus creating two disjoint but mobile subpopulations) might affect the long-term size of the wildebeest population. Our simulation results suggest that a barrier to migration-even without causing habitat losscould cause the wildebeest population to decline by about a third. The driver of this decline is the effect of habitat fragmentation (even without habitat loss) on the ability of wildebeest to effectively track temporal shifts in high-quality forage resources across the landscape. Given the important role of the wildebeest migration for a number of key ecological processes, these findings have potentially important ramifications for ecosystem biodiversity, structure, and function in the Serengeti.
Background: The clinical presentation of pregnancy-associated malaria, or PAM, depends crucially ... more Background: The clinical presentation of pregnancy-associated malaria, or PAM, depends crucially on the particular epidemiological settings. This can potentially lead to an underestimation of its overall burden on the female population, especially in regions prone to epidemic outbreaks and where malaria transmission is generally low. Methods: Here, by reexamining historical data, it is demonstrated how excess female mortality can be used to evaluate the burden of PAM. A simple mathematical model is then developed to highlight the contrasting signatures of PAM within the endemicity spectrum and to show how PAM is influenced by the intensity and stability of transmission. Results: Both the data and the model show that maternal malaria has a huge impact on the female population. This is particularly pronounced in low-transmission settings during epidemic outbreaks where excess female mortality/morbidity can by far exceed that of a similar endemic setting. Conclusion: The results presented here call for active intervention measures not only in highly endemic regions but also, or in particular, in areas where malaria transmission is low and seasonal.
Background Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central ... more Background Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Methods and Findings Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifica...
The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of... more The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either ''endemic'' or ''epidemic.''
Marine Board-ESF The Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its member organisations t... more Marine Board-ESF The Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its member organisations to develop common priorities, to advance marine research, and to bridge the gap between science and policy in order to meet future marine science challenges and opportunities. The Marine Board was established in 1995 to facilitate enhanced cooperation between European marine science organisations (both research institutes and
Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the sp... more Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0uC isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0uC. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0uC-2uC on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0uC and 3uC, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0uC isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006.
This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify... more This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.
Page 1. Vol. 130, No. 3 The American Naturalist September 1987 ANTIPREDATOR BEHAVIOR AND THE POPU... more Page 1. Vol. 130, No. 3 The American Naturalist September 1987 ANTIPREDATOR BEHAVIOR AND THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SIMPLE PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEMS Anthony R. Ives and Andrew P. Dobson* Department ...
Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spre... more Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spread through pilchard populations in Australia at a rate in excess of 10 000 km year)1 , and morbillivirus infections in seals and dolphins have spread at more than 3000 km year)1. In terrestrial environments, only the epidemics of myxomatosis and calicivirus in Australian rabbits and West Nile Virus in birds in North America have rates of spread in excess of 1000 km year)1. The rapid rates of spread of these epidemics has been attributed to flying insect vectors, but flying vectors have not been proposed for any marine pathogen. The most likely explanation for the relatively rapid spread of marine pathogens is the lack of barriers to dispersal in some parts of the ocean, and the potential for long-term survival of pathogens outside the host. These findings caution that pathogens may pose a particularly severe problem in the ocean. There is a need to develop epidemic models capable of generating these high rates of spread and obtain more estimates of disease spread rate.
Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, varia... more Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, variation in local fire characteristics, has been proposed as a driver of biodiversity although empirical evidence is equivocal. Using a new measure of pyrodiversity (Hempson et al.), we undertook the first continent-wide assessment of how pyrodiversity affects biodiversity in protected areas across African savannas. The influence of pyrodiversity on bird and mammal species richness varied with rainfall: strongest support for a positive effect occurred in wet savannas (> 650 mm/year), where species richness increased by 27% for mammals and 40% for birds in the most pyrodiverse regions. Range-restricted birds were most increased by pyrodiversity, suggesting the diversity of fire regimes increases the availability of rare niches. Our findings are significant because they explain the conflicting results found in previous studies of savannas. We argue that managing savanna landscapes to increa...
Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation orga... more Accurate and on-demand animal population counts are the holy grail for wildlife conservation organizations throughout the world because they enable fast and responsive adaptive management policies. While the collection of image data from camera traps, satellites, and manned or unmanned aircraft has advanced significantly, the detection and identification of animals within images remains a major bottleneck since counting is primarily conducted by dedicated enumerators or citizen scientists. Recent developments in the field of computer vision suggest a potential resolution to this issue through the use of rotation-invariant object descriptors combined with machine learning algorithms. Here we implement an algorithm to detect and count wildebeest from aerial images collected in the Serengeti National Park in 2009 as part of the biennial wildebeest count. We find that the per image error rates are greater than, but comparable to, two separate human counts. For the total count, the algorithm is more accurate than both manual counts, suggesting that human counters have a tendency to systematically over or under count images. While the accuracy of the algorithm is not yet at an acceptable level for fully automatic counts, our results show this method is a promising avenue for further research and we highlight specific areas where future research should focus in order to develop fast and accurate enumeration of aerial count data. If combined with a bespoke image collection protocol, this approach may yield a fully automated wildebeest count in the near future.
Trade decisions made by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species must place sc... more Trade decisions made by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species must place science over politics.
The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological ... more The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological phenomenon. A proposed road project threatens to bisect the Serengeti ecosystem and its integrity. The precautionary principle dictates that we consider the possible consequences of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatiallyexplicit simulation model of wildebeest movement and population dynamics to explore how placing a barrier to migration across the proposed route (thus creating two disjoint but mobile subpopulations) might affect the long-term size of the wildebeest population. Our simulation results suggest that a barrier to migration-even without causing habitat losscould cause the wildebeest population to decline by about a third. The driver of this decline is the effect of habitat fragmentation (even without habitat loss) on the ability of wildebeest to effectively track temporal shifts in high-quality forage resources across the landscape. Given the important role of the wildebeest migration for a number of key ecological processes, these findings have potentially important ramifications for ecosystem biodiversity, structure, and function in the Serengeti.
Background: The clinical presentation of pregnancy-associated malaria, or PAM, depends crucially ... more Background: The clinical presentation of pregnancy-associated malaria, or PAM, depends crucially on the particular epidemiological settings. This can potentially lead to an underestimation of its overall burden on the female population, especially in regions prone to epidemic outbreaks and where malaria transmission is generally low. Methods: Here, by reexamining historical data, it is demonstrated how excess female mortality can be used to evaluate the burden of PAM. A simple mathematical model is then developed to highlight the contrasting signatures of PAM within the endemicity spectrum and to show how PAM is influenced by the intensity and stability of transmission. Results: Both the data and the model show that maternal malaria has a huge impact on the female population. This is particularly pronounced in low-transmission settings during epidemic outbreaks where excess female mortality/morbidity can by far exceed that of a similar endemic setting. Conclusion: The results presented here call for active intervention measures not only in highly endemic regions but also, or in particular, in areas where malaria transmission is low and seasonal.
Background Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central ... more Background Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Methods and Findings Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifica...
The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of... more The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either ''endemic'' or ''epidemic.''
Uploads
Papers by Andrew Dobson