JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, a... more JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 35.
I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d ... more I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d estinatio n areas.
I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d ... more I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d estinatio n areas.
SIMULATION: Transactions of The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
The authors discuss a distributed modeling architecture in a multi-agent-based behavioral economi... more The authors discuss a distributed modeling architecture in a multi-agent-based behavioral economic landscape (MABEL) model that simulates land-use changes over time and space. Based on agent- based modeling methodologies, MABEL presents a bottom-up approach to allow the analysis of dynamic features and relations among geographic, environmental, human, and socioeconomic at- tributes of landowners, as well as comprehensive relational schematics of land-use change. The authors adopt a distributed modeling architecture (DMA) in MABEL to separate the modeling of agent behaviors in Bayesian belief networks from task-specific simulation scenarios.Through a client- server infrastructure, MABEL provides an efficient and scalable decision request-response mecha- nism among heterogeneous agents, scenarios, and behavioral models. As an important part of the land-use change model, a market-bidding system and an adaptive land partition algorithm for land transactions are also discussed.
EXTENDED ABSTRACT We summarize the use of several different modelling approaches we are employing... more EXTENDED ABSTRACT We summarize the use of several different modelling approaches we are employing to understand how climate change impacts changes in land use in East Africa. A role playing game model has been employed that helps to elucidate the behavioural drivers of land use change and how these factors are integrated with other biophysical (e.g. climate) and socioeconomic drivers. Outcomes from the game include a qualitative list and integrative understanding of these drivers over spatial and temporal scales and a series of decision maps produced by game participants. A second method includes the use of expert systems or knowledge acquisition approaches that attempt to synthesize expert opinion on how societies may adapt to changes in climate. Outcomes of these knowledge acquisition activities include expert maps and systems diagrams both of which are used to construct and validate models. These two qualitative approaches were used to construct three different sets of models: th...
The Climate-Land Interactions Project (CLIP) is studying climate impacts coupled to land use/land... more The Climate-Land Interactions Project (CLIP) is studying climate impacts coupled to land use/land cover (LULC) change in East Africa. Accompanying dramatic shifts in population distribution and economic drivers in eastern Africa are changes in global climate forcings; e.g. the melting of Kilimanjaro's glaciers, shifts in the Indian Ocean Dipole periodicity, and greater drought frequency. These socioeconomic factors can alter the surface energy balance, thereby influencing climate, and climate shifts can in turn influence patterns and practices in agriculture that will affect LULC. Here we present preliminary results from regional climate model simulations under current (2000-2010) and future (2040-2050) climate conditions driven by boundary conditions from NCAR's CCSM model (using scenario A1B), with land cover prognosed by a land transformation model. Prognosed land cover is driven by projected socioeconomic forces ranging from urban migration to agricultural expansion into...
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, a... more JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 35.
I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d ... more I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d estinatio n areas.
I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d ... more I t is seen as a response to changes in the socioeconomic environment at both the o rig in and d estinatio n areas.
SIMULATION: Transactions of The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
The authors discuss a distributed modeling architecture in a multi-agent-based behavioral economi... more The authors discuss a distributed modeling architecture in a multi-agent-based behavioral economic landscape (MABEL) model that simulates land-use changes over time and space. Based on agent- based modeling methodologies, MABEL presents a bottom-up approach to allow the analysis of dynamic features and relations among geographic, environmental, human, and socioeconomic at- tributes of landowners, as well as comprehensive relational schematics of land-use change. The authors adopt a distributed modeling architecture (DMA) in MABEL to separate the modeling of agent behaviors in Bayesian belief networks from task-specific simulation scenarios.Through a client- server infrastructure, MABEL provides an efficient and scalable decision request-response mecha- nism among heterogeneous agents, scenarios, and behavioral models. As an important part of the land-use change model, a market-bidding system and an adaptive land partition algorithm for land transactions are also discussed.
EXTENDED ABSTRACT We summarize the use of several different modelling approaches we are employing... more EXTENDED ABSTRACT We summarize the use of several different modelling approaches we are employing to understand how climate change impacts changes in land use in East Africa. A role playing game model has been employed that helps to elucidate the behavioural drivers of land use change and how these factors are integrated with other biophysical (e.g. climate) and socioeconomic drivers. Outcomes from the game include a qualitative list and integrative understanding of these drivers over spatial and temporal scales and a series of decision maps produced by game participants. A second method includes the use of expert systems or knowledge acquisition approaches that attempt to synthesize expert opinion on how societies may adapt to changes in climate. Outcomes of these knowledge acquisition activities include expert maps and systems diagrams both of which are used to construct and validate models. These two qualitative approaches were used to construct three different sets of models: th...
The Climate-Land Interactions Project (CLIP) is studying climate impacts coupled to land use/land... more The Climate-Land Interactions Project (CLIP) is studying climate impacts coupled to land use/land cover (LULC) change in East Africa. Accompanying dramatic shifts in population distribution and economic drivers in eastern Africa are changes in global climate forcings; e.g. the melting of Kilimanjaro's glaciers, shifts in the Indian Ocean Dipole periodicity, and greater drought frequency. These socioeconomic factors can alter the surface energy balance, thereby influencing climate, and climate shifts can in turn influence patterns and practices in agriculture that will affect LULC. Here we present preliminary results from regional climate model simulations under current (2000-2010) and future (2040-2050) climate conditions driven by boundary conditions from NCAR's CCSM model (using scenario A1B), with land cover prognosed by a land transformation model. Prognosed land cover is driven by projected socioeconomic forces ranging from urban migration to agricultural expansion into...
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