Oscar voting is closed, and the Academy exit polls show an unpredictable ceremony ahead.
The 97th Academy Awards are fast approaching, and with them comes one of the most wide-open races in recent memory. Each of the 10 nominees has carved out a distinct space, from high-profile epics to intimate indie dramas. But if history — and Academy voting trends — are any indication, one film stands poised to dominate.
In one corner is Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which has all the momentum. After winning the Palme d’Or, Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, and WGA awards, it has swept the major precursors — a feat rarely achieved. The film fits the Academy’s recent pattern of embracing bold, character-driven storytelling centering on a single woman (“Nomadland,” “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once”). With AMPAS’ younger, more diverse membership in play, this raunchy indie dramedy seems poised to follow in their footsteps.
It also helps that, according to Variety’s informal voter polling, “Anora” and “Conclave” have consistently appeared on the most ballots. Still, “The Brutalist” looms as a potential spoiler — but only if enough voters have actually watched all 215 minutes of Brady Corbet’s sprawling historical epic. The film, which won best picture at the Golden Globes and director at BAFTA, carries strong international and prestige-film support. If it wins, it will become the fourth-longest best picture winner ever, joining “Gone With the Wind” (1939), “Lawrence of Arabia” (1962), and “Ben-Hur” (1959). The Academy has long been drawn to spectacle (see: “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” and “Schindler’s List”), and “The Brutalist” fits the mold.
Then there’s “Conclave,” the highbrow Vatican thriller with 11 BAFTA nominations and four wins, including Best Film. However, BAFTA’s track record as an Oscar predictor is shaky — only “Oppenheimer” (2023) and “Nomadland” (2020) have lined up in the past decade.
So, what will take the crown? Which actors will leave with gold? And what can past races tell us about how this one might shake out? Let’s dive in with five revelations below and five anonymous Oscar ballots.
More anonymous ballots will be shared before the final predictions, which will be revealed on Wednesday, Feb. 26.
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Baker vs. Corbet for Director
Image Credit: Corbet: Dominik Bindl/Getty Images for FLC; Baker: Victoria Stevens Brady Corbet dominated early directing prizes, sweeping nearly every award leading up to the televised ceremonies — until Sean Baker stormed in and took the DGA, historically the most accurate predictor of the Oscar winner. If Baker wins, he stands a chance at taking home four Oscars in one night, making him only the second person ever to do so (after Walt Disney) and the first to achieve it for the same film. The Academy loves to anoint visionary indie filmmakers (i.e., Chloé Zhao), and Baker fits that bill.
But Corbet’s BAFTA win cannot be ignored. The last time a BAFTA-winning director (who was also Oscar-nominated) lost the Oscar? Sam Mendes for “1917” (2019). Corbet’s meticulous direction has drawn voter praise, with one anonymous Academy member saying: “If RaMell Ross was nominated for director, and I don’t know how he wasn’t, this would be an insanely tough choice. But since he wasn’t, Brady was the clear pick.”
Voter Ballot #1: “It was a fine year for movies… it is accurate to say, ‘Emilia Perez’ was the worst of the best picture nominees.”
Best Picture: “The Brutalist”
Actor: Adrien Brody
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Actress: Fernanda Torres
Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
Costume Design: “Conclave”
Director: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Documentary Feature: Abstain
Documentary Short: Abstain
Film Editing: “The Brutalist”
International Feature: Abstain
Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked”
Original Score: “The Brutalist”
Original Song: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Production Design: “Conclave”
Animated Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Sound: “Dune: Part Two”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay: “The Brutalist” -
Timothée Chalamet ‘Too Young’ to Win Best Actor?
Image Credit: Macall Polay Adrien Brody has swept the major awards, winning the Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe. If he wins the SAG statue, history is on his side: The last time an actor took all four precursors and lost the Oscar was Russell Crowe in “A Beautiful Mind” (2002).
Ironically, when Brody won for “The Pianist” (2003), becoming the youngest winner ever in the category at 29, he was also the last actor to take the Oscar without winning a single televised precursor. Could he now experience the reverse — a Russell Crowe-style jaw-dropping loss at the finish line?
Enter Timothée Chalamet, who has a compelling case. Many pundits predict he could win SAG, especially given “A Complete Unknown’s” strong showing with the guild. But history isn’t in his favor: No actor has won best actor with only a SAG victory. In fact, only six actors in any category have pulled it off — including Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), and most recently, Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).
Still, playing Bob Dylan checks all the Academy’s “biopic” boxes. If the Academy deems Chalamet too young for an Oscar, as one voter shared stating — “there’s time for him,” — that could be what keeps his name from being on the envelope. They did make Leonardo DiCaprio wait until he was 41 and on his sixth nomination.
Voter #2: “Adrien Brody is a remarkably gifted actor, and I’m very happy for him.”
Best Picture: “Nickel Boys” (1); “The Brutalist” (2); “I’m Still Here” (3); “Dune: Part Two” (4); “Anora” (5)
Actor: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Actress: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Animated Feature: “Flow”
Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
Costume Design: “A Complete Unknown”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Documentary Feature: Abstain
Documentary Short: Abstain
Film Editing: “The Brutalist”
International Feature: “I’m Still Here”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “A Different Man”
Original Score: “Emilia Pérez”
Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Production Design: “Nosferatu”
Animated Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Sound: “The Wild Robot”
Visual Effects: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay: “Anora” -
Anyone Not Named Karla Sofía Gascón Can Win Best Actress
Image Credit: Netflix/Everett Collection Mikey Madison received a massive boost after winning the BAFTA for “Anora,” mainly because the film lost best picture, director, and screenplay, and she still won. Her performance has been hailed as a “pure and genuine acting showcase” by one voter and “the arrival of a star” by another. It feels very Brie Larson in “Room.”
Until recently, Demi Moore looked like the anointed winner for her transformative performance in “The Substance.” But if she loses SAG, we could be in Angela Bassett territory (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), with only CCA and Globes to her name, and we all remember how that ended. As an industry, we seem to have underestimated the genre bias with Moore’s film. One voter stated unequivocally, “I despise ‘The Substance.’ It was gross, over the top, and I didn’t think Demi was anything special.”
It is worth noting that a few voters also state their disdain for the film but are voting for Moore anyway. “What a remarkable career she’s had, and she deserves this moment,” one voter says gleefully.
Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) could be a dark horse, especially if SAG rallies behind her. But with a messy race that would potentially show Moore, Madison, and Erivo all win some awards, the real upset pick may be Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”).
One voter shared they only watched her film in the past week and, before that, were set on voting for Madison. Instead, they’re checking Torres’ name off. The Brazilian star boasts only a Golden Globe win, and with the role — an activist fighting an oppressive regime — it’s the classic Oscar appeal. Still, no actor has won a lead acting Oscar without a nom from SAG and BAFTA, and only one person has won the Oscar with only a Golden Globe — George Clooney for “Syriana” (2005).
When you factor in Karla Sofía Gascón, who stars as the titular character in “Emilia Pérez,” the controversy is a factor, but many said that they weren’t on board with the film prior. The real question is, how do the tweets affect the movie down the ballot?
Voter #3: “We don’t see movies like ‘A Complete Unknown’ made in Hollywood anymore… Studios are scared of them.”
Best Picture: “A Complete Unknown”
Actor: Ralph Fiennes
Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Costume Design: “A Complete Unknown”
Director: James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Documentary Feature: “Sugarcane”
Documentary Short: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Film Editing: “Conclave”
International Feature: “The Girl with the Needle”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Substance”
Original Score: “Conclave”
Original Song: “El Mal”
Production Design: “The Brutalist”
Animated Short: “Yuck!”
Live Action Short: “The Last Ranger”
Sound: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “A Complete Unknown”
Original Screenplay: “September 5” -
Supporting Actor and Actress are Both Predictable and Chaotic
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy By the looks of it, Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) is running away with supporting actor, having swept every major award. At this point, the amount of support for him mimics that of Robert Downey Jr. last year for “Oppenheimer.” Interestingly, Edward Norton was mentioned a few time. However, the name I heard the second-most times was Jeremy Strong, Culkin’s former “Succession” co-star from “The Apprentice.” It’s not enough to predict an upset, but it’s interesting.
Supporting actress, however, is all over the place. Zoë Saldaña (“Emilia Perez”) has dominated the televised circuit, but an upset isn’t out of the question. Early buzz suggested Ariana Grande would be the one to watch out for “Wicked.” However, the real challengers emerging are Monica Barbaro from “A Complete Unknown” and veteran Isabella Rossellini from “Conclave.” I wouldn’t count them out necessarily, but Saldaña could be the one nod that survives the demise of her Spanish-language musical.
Voter #4: “It took me five days to watch ‘The Brutalist’ and another two days to wake up from it.”
Best Picture: “Anora” (1); “Conclave” (2); “Wicked” (3); “A Complete Unknown” (4); “I’m Still Here” (5); “Emilia Perez” (6); “Dune: Part Two” (7); “Nickel Boys” (8); “The Substance” (9); “The Brutalist” (10)
Actor: Colman Domingo
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Actress: Mikey Madison
Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Cinematography: “Maria”
Costume Design: “Wicked”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Documentary Feature: “No Other Land”
Documentary Short: Abstain
Film Editing: “Wicked”
International Feature: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked”
Original Score: “Wicked”
Original Song: “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
Production Design: “Wicked”
Animated Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Sound: “Wicked”
Visual Effects: “Better Man”
Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave”
Original Screenplay: “A Real Pain” -
Possible Twists in Screenplay and Voters Wanted More ‘Dune 2’
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise The original screenplay category remains tricky. “A Real Pain’s” BAFTA win could be a red herring, as history suggests a best picture nominee typically prevails here, especially against a possible winner. In the last 30 years, only twice has a non-best picture nominee beat an eventual winner in this category: “Almost Famous” over “Gladiator” (2000) and “Sling Blade” over “The English Patient” (1996)
In adapted, “Conclave” looks dominant, with Golden Globe and BAFTA statuettes. Although “The Banshees of Inisherin” also had that same win pattern, it lost to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” But if “Conclave” is truly in the best picture hunt (and it is), it needs to win this category — plus editing (which it won at BAFTA). If there is a spoiler, look to RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ “Nickel Boys,” which has deep industry respect. One voter was audibly angry about seeing Denis Villeneuve’s epic sequel “Dune: Part Two,” not in more categories. “I voted for the first part in almost every category last time,” they share. “How has Denis not won four Oscars already? I don’t understand how the studio and, quite frankly, us Oscar voters fuck this up so bad?”
Voter #5: “I don’t know how ‘Dune’ wasn’t nominated for every category… and I hate sci-fi.”
Best Picture: “Dune: Part Two”
Actor: Adrien Brody
Supporting Actor: Edward Norton
Actress: Fernanda Torres
Supporting Actress: Felicity Jones
Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Costume Design: “Nosferatu”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Documentary Feature: “Porcelain War”
Documentary Short: Abstain
Film Editing: Abstain
International Feature: “I’m Still Here”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “Emilia Pérez”
Original Score: “The Brutalist”
Original Song: Abstain
Production Design: “Dune: Part Two”
Animated Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Sound: “Dune: Part Two”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Sing Sing”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”
