IntroductionAs wildfire smoke events increase in intensity and frequency in the Pacific Northwest... more IntroductionAs wildfire smoke events increase in intensity and frequency in the Pacific Northwest, there is a growing need for effective communication on the health risks of smoke exposure. Delivery through a trusted source or intermediary has been shown to improve reception of risk communication messages. This is especially salient in rural and tribal communities who may be hesitant to trust information from state and federal agency sources. This study aims to identify and characterize trusted sources for smoke risk information in the Okanogan River Airshed Emphasis Area (ORAEA), a rural region of North Central Washington state that is heavily impacted by smoke from wildfires and prescribed fire.MethodsThe research team conducted a qualitative study using data collected through key informant interviews and focus groups to assess the role of various sources and intermediaries in disseminating smoke risk information. We used a consensual coding approach in NVivo Qualitative Analysis ...
Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunami... more Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunamis. Along with their own political-economic, cultural and biophysical contexts, each region has their own history and experiences of tsunami disasters. Coastal areas of Washington State in the U.S. are currently at risk of experiencing a tsunami following a massive Magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake anticipated in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Looking ahead to consider adaptive planning in advance of a tsunami following this M9 event, this paper explores how lessons from recent megaquake- and tsunami-related experiences of risk-based planning and relocation in coastal areas of Japan and Chile could inform anticipatory action in coastal Washington State. Based on a comparison of earthquake and tsunami hazards, social factors, and the roles of government, this paper outlines a framework to compare policy contexts of tsunami risk-based planning and relocation in three Ring of Fire countries, ...
We introduce the National Science Foundation (NSF) AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in... more We introduce the National Science Foundation (NSF) AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES). This AI institute was funded in 2020 as part of a new initiative from the NSF to advance foundational AI research across a wide variety of domains. To date AI2ES is the only NSF AI institute focusing on environmental science applications. Our institute focuses on developing trustworthy AI methods for weather, climate, and coastal hazards. The AI methods will revolutionize our understanding and prediction of high-impact atmospheric and ocean science phenomena and will be utilized by diverse, professional user groups to reduce risks to society. In addition, we are creating novel educational paths, including a new degree program at a community college serving underrepresented minorities, to improve workforce diversity for both AI and environmental science.
Abstract Hazard maps are used to communicate complex scientific data with many audiences during v... more Abstract Hazard maps are used to communicate complex scientific data with many audiences during volcanic unrest crises, but it is unclear how common hazard visualisation styles affect cognition, behaviour, and decision-making. Here we use eye-gaze tracking and questionnaires to explore how 81 people near a volcano in New Zealand read and make decisions with hazard maps for a hypothetical eruption. We find that greater mental effort is required to read early-stage hazard maps associated with higher uncertainty, and that showing integrated zones of low to high hazard can result in 1) higher perceived threat, 2) limited visual attention to the maps, and 3) more risk-averse decisions under pressure compared to visualising discrete hazard footprints. People with high prior risk perceptions demonstrate less attention to map content overall. The results show how map visualisation can influence cognition, decision-making, and behaviour, and have implications for crisis communication. For example, in the early stages of a volcanic event, integrated hazard zones may help capture audience attention by facilitating a high-level assessment of risk. As the event evolves, discrete footprints of individual hazard processes may help better inform high-stakes decisions for which detailed hazard knowledge is needed. Additionally, we find that providing simple tasks for the audience to carry out using the maps, and showing safe areas alongside hazardous areas, may encourage map reading. We discuss the implications of these findings, and present four evidence-based points for scientists to consider across a range of fields where hazard maps are used to communicate with non-specialist audiences.
Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcano... more Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who...
The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, headquartered at the Univ... more The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, headquartered at the University of Washington (UW), is a collaboration between UW, Oregon State University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Florida. The RAPID facility will enable natural hazard researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, post-disaster data sets that will enable characterization of civil infrastructure performance under natural hazard loads, evaluation of the effectiveness of current and previous design methodologies, understanding of socio-economic dynamics, calibration of computational models used to predict civil infrastructure component and system response, and development of solutions for resilient communities. The facility will provide investigators with the hardware, software and support services needed to collect, process and assess perishable interdisciplinary data following extreme natural hazar...
sufficient to understand and estimate the likely ecological responses to the major alternatives b... more sufficient to understand and estimate the likely ecological responses to the major alternatives being considered by decision makers. the SAB also advises epA to consider the use of a broader suite of valuation methods than it has historically employed, so long as the methods meet appropriate validity and related criteria. Such methods could be useful in identifying services of importance to the public, providing information about multiple types of values (including spiritual and moral values), and better capturing the full range of contributions stemming from ecosystem protection. To gain experience with new methods, epA should pilot and evaluate the use of alternate methods where legally permissible and scientifically appropriate. EPA can also improve its ecological valuations by carefully evaluating and overseeing its use of value transfers (in which value information collected at one site is used in the valuation of policy impacts at a different site) and more fully characterizing and communicating uncertainty. The Executive Summary of the accompanying report highlights the SAB's findings and recommendations in more detail and summarizes the science presented in the main body of the report. We appreciate the opportunity to provide advice on this significant topic and look forward to receiving your response.
Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the res... more Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the research and practice communities and have greatly improved our scientific understanding of extreme events. Yet, many challenges remain for these communities, including improving our ability to model hazards, make decisions in the face of uncertainty, enhance community resilience, and mitigate risk. State-of-the-art instrumentation and mobile data collection applications have significantly advanced the ability of field investigation teams to capture quickly perishable data in post-disaster settings. The NHERI RAPID Facility convened a community workshop of experts in the professional, government, and academic sectors to determine reconnaissance data needs and opportunities, and to identify the broader challenges facing the reconnaissance community that hinder data collection and use. Participants highlighted that field teams face many practical and operational challenges before and during reconnaissance investigations, including logistics concerns, safety issues, emotional trauma, and after-returning, issues with data processing and analysis. Field teams have executed many effective missions. Among the factors contributing to successful reconnaissance are having local contacts, effective teamwork, and pre-event training. Continued progress in natural hazard reconnaissance requires adaptation of new, strategic approaches that acquire and integrate data over a range of temporal, spatial, and social scales across disciplines.
In 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded a multi-institution interdisciplinary team ... more In 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded a multi-institution interdisciplinary team to develop and operate the Natural Hazards Reconnaissance Facility (known as the "RAPID") as part of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) program. During the following 2 years, the RAPID facility developed its instrumentation portfolio and operational plan with input from the natural hazards community, the facility's leadership team, and an external steering committee. In September 2018, the RAPID began field operations, which continue today and include instrumentation, software, training, and support services to conduct reconnaissance research before, during, and after natural hazard and disaster events. Over the past 2 years, the RAPID has supported the data collection efforts for over 60 projects worldwide. Projects have spanned a wide range of disciplines and hazards and have also included data collection at large-scale experimental facilities in the United States and abroad. These projects have produced an unprecedented amount of high-quality field data archived on the DesignSafe cyberinfrastructure platform. This paper describes the RAPID facility's development, instrumentation portfolio (including the mobile application RApp), services and capabilities, and training activities. Additionally, overviews of three recent RAPID-supported projects are presented, including descriptions of field data collection workflows, details of the resulting data sets, and the impact of these project deployments on the natural hazard fields.
Developing trustworthy artificial intelligence for weather and ocean forecasting, as well as for ... more Developing trustworthy artificial intelligence for weather and ocean forecasting, as well as for long-term environmental sustainability, requires integrating collaborative efforts from many sources.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2019
Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fra... more Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.
IntroductionAs wildfire smoke events increase in intensity and frequency in the Pacific Northwest... more IntroductionAs wildfire smoke events increase in intensity and frequency in the Pacific Northwest, there is a growing need for effective communication on the health risks of smoke exposure. Delivery through a trusted source or intermediary has been shown to improve reception of risk communication messages. This is especially salient in rural and tribal communities who may be hesitant to trust information from state and federal agency sources. This study aims to identify and characterize trusted sources for smoke risk information in the Okanogan River Airshed Emphasis Area (ORAEA), a rural region of North Central Washington state that is heavily impacted by smoke from wildfires and prescribed fire.MethodsThe research team conducted a qualitative study using data collected through key informant interviews and focus groups to assess the role of various sources and intermediaries in disseminating smoke risk information. We used a consensual coding approach in NVivo Qualitative Analysis ...
Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunami... more Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunamis. Along with their own political-economic, cultural and biophysical contexts, each region has their own history and experiences of tsunami disasters. Coastal areas of Washington State in the U.S. are currently at risk of experiencing a tsunami following a massive Magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake anticipated in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Looking ahead to consider adaptive planning in advance of a tsunami following this M9 event, this paper explores how lessons from recent megaquake- and tsunami-related experiences of risk-based planning and relocation in coastal areas of Japan and Chile could inform anticipatory action in coastal Washington State. Based on a comparison of earthquake and tsunami hazards, social factors, and the roles of government, this paper outlines a framework to compare policy contexts of tsunami risk-based planning and relocation in three Ring of Fire countries, ...
We introduce the National Science Foundation (NSF) AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in... more We introduce the National Science Foundation (NSF) AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES). This AI institute was funded in 2020 as part of a new initiative from the NSF to advance foundational AI research across a wide variety of domains. To date AI2ES is the only NSF AI institute focusing on environmental science applications. Our institute focuses on developing trustworthy AI methods for weather, climate, and coastal hazards. The AI methods will revolutionize our understanding and prediction of high-impact atmospheric and ocean science phenomena and will be utilized by diverse, professional user groups to reduce risks to society. In addition, we are creating novel educational paths, including a new degree program at a community college serving underrepresented minorities, to improve workforce diversity for both AI and environmental science.
Abstract Hazard maps are used to communicate complex scientific data with many audiences during v... more Abstract Hazard maps are used to communicate complex scientific data with many audiences during volcanic unrest crises, but it is unclear how common hazard visualisation styles affect cognition, behaviour, and decision-making. Here we use eye-gaze tracking and questionnaires to explore how 81 people near a volcano in New Zealand read and make decisions with hazard maps for a hypothetical eruption. We find that greater mental effort is required to read early-stage hazard maps associated with higher uncertainty, and that showing integrated zones of low to high hazard can result in 1) higher perceived threat, 2) limited visual attention to the maps, and 3) more risk-averse decisions under pressure compared to visualising discrete hazard footprints. People with high prior risk perceptions demonstrate less attention to map content overall. The results show how map visualisation can influence cognition, decision-making, and behaviour, and have implications for crisis communication. For example, in the early stages of a volcanic event, integrated hazard zones may help capture audience attention by facilitating a high-level assessment of risk. As the event evolves, discrete footprints of individual hazard processes may help better inform high-stakes decisions for which detailed hazard knowledge is needed. Additionally, we find that providing simple tasks for the audience to carry out using the maps, and showing safe areas alongside hazardous areas, may encourage map reading. We discuss the implications of these findings, and present four evidence-based points for scientists to consider across a range of fields where hazard maps are used to communicate with non-specialist audiences.
Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcano... more Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who...
The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, headquartered at the Univ... more The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, headquartered at the University of Washington (UW), is a collaboration between UW, Oregon State University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Florida. The RAPID facility will enable natural hazard researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, post-disaster data sets that will enable characterization of civil infrastructure performance under natural hazard loads, evaluation of the effectiveness of current and previous design methodologies, understanding of socio-economic dynamics, calibration of computational models used to predict civil infrastructure component and system response, and development of solutions for resilient communities. The facility will provide investigators with the hardware, software and support services needed to collect, process and assess perishable interdisciplinary data following extreme natural hazar...
sufficient to understand and estimate the likely ecological responses to the major alternatives b... more sufficient to understand and estimate the likely ecological responses to the major alternatives being considered by decision makers. the SAB also advises epA to consider the use of a broader suite of valuation methods than it has historically employed, so long as the methods meet appropriate validity and related criteria. Such methods could be useful in identifying services of importance to the public, providing information about multiple types of values (including spiritual and moral values), and better capturing the full range of contributions stemming from ecosystem protection. To gain experience with new methods, epA should pilot and evaluate the use of alternate methods where legally permissible and scientifically appropriate. EPA can also improve its ecological valuations by carefully evaluating and overseeing its use of value transfers (in which value information collected at one site is used in the valuation of policy impacts at a different site) and more fully characterizing and communicating uncertainty. The Executive Summary of the accompanying report highlights the SAB's findings and recommendations in more detail and summarizes the science presented in the main body of the report. We appreciate the opportunity to provide advice on this significant topic and look forward to receiving your response.
Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the res... more Natural hazards and disaster reconnaissance investigations have provided many lessons for the research and practice communities and have greatly improved our scientific understanding of extreme events. Yet, many challenges remain for these communities, including improving our ability to model hazards, make decisions in the face of uncertainty, enhance community resilience, and mitigate risk. State-of-the-art instrumentation and mobile data collection applications have significantly advanced the ability of field investigation teams to capture quickly perishable data in post-disaster settings. The NHERI RAPID Facility convened a community workshop of experts in the professional, government, and academic sectors to determine reconnaissance data needs and opportunities, and to identify the broader challenges facing the reconnaissance community that hinder data collection and use. Participants highlighted that field teams face many practical and operational challenges before and during reconnaissance investigations, including logistics concerns, safety issues, emotional trauma, and after-returning, issues with data processing and analysis. Field teams have executed many effective missions. Among the factors contributing to successful reconnaissance are having local contacts, effective teamwork, and pre-event training. Continued progress in natural hazard reconnaissance requires adaptation of new, strategic approaches that acquire and integrate data over a range of temporal, spatial, and social scales across disciplines.
In 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded a multi-institution interdisciplinary team ... more In 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded a multi-institution interdisciplinary team to develop and operate the Natural Hazards Reconnaissance Facility (known as the "RAPID") as part of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) program. During the following 2 years, the RAPID facility developed its instrumentation portfolio and operational plan with input from the natural hazards community, the facility's leadership team, and an external steering committee. In September 2018, the RAPID began field operations, which continue today and include instrumentation, software, training, and support services to conduct reconnaissance research before, during, and after natural hazard and disaster events. Over the past 2 years, the RAPID has supported the data collection efforts for over 60 projects worldwide. Projects have spanned a wide range of disciplines and hazards and have also included data collection at large-scale experimental facilities in the United States and abroad. These projects have produced an unprecedented amount of high-quality field data archived on the DesignSafe cyberinfrastructure platform. This paper describes the RAPID facility's development, instrumentation portfolio (including the mobile application RApp), services and capabilities, and training activities. Additionally, overviews of three recent RAPID-supported projects are presented, including descriptions of field data collection workflows, details of the resulting data sets, and the impact of these project deployments on the natural hazard fields.
Developing trustworthy artificial intelligence for weather and ocean forecasting, as well as for ... more Developing trustworthy artificial intelligence for weather and ocean forecasting, as well as for long-term environmental sustainability, requires integrating collaborative efforts from many sources.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2019
Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fra... more Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.
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Papers by Ann Bostrom