Urban Sustainability Transformation Through Building Adaptive Pathways

Urban Sustainability Transformation Through Building Adaptive Pathways Jeremy Gibberd, jgibberd@csir.co.za CSIR South Africa / Nelson Mandela University, South Africa Abstract It is becoming apparent that inappropriate infrastructure is one of the main reasons that climate change targets are not being achieved. The structure of existing infrastructure and systems perpetuate unsustainable working and living patterns and it is difficult for people to avoid environmental impacts such as carbon emissions, even if there is a will to do so. Methodologies are therefore needed to understand how existing infrastructure and built environments can be transformed to enable low carbon lifestyles. A potential methodology for achieving this is called Building Adaptive Pathways. The study presents the methodology and illustrates how this can be applied through a case study urban site in Pretoria, South Africa. Findings generated by the application of the methodology, and the methodology itself, are critically reviewed to ascertain the value of the approach. The study concludes that the methodology presents a valuable alternative approach for addressing urban sustainability transformation and makes recommendations for its further development. Keywords Sustainability, urban, transformation, Building Adaptive Pathways. 1 Introduction It is increasingly clear that climate change targets are going to be difficult to achieve. One reason for this is that there has been insufficient change and existing infrastructure and systems perpetuate living and working patterns that are associated with high carbon emissions (Pachauri, et al., 2014). Climate change programmes have generally focussed on technological solutions, such as the introduction of solar water heaters or more efficient lighting (Pachauri, et al., 2014). These changes however have not had the required result and have only made marginal improvements. The lack of progress in making more rapid progress towards the achievement of climate change targets has prompted interest in approaches that advocate more radical, structural change with greater associated impacts. The International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that approaches based on incremental change have not been successful. They find that these approaches tend to cost more and miss significant opportunities to achieve change compared to transformational approaches (Pachauri, et al., 2014). Transformational approaches combine economic, social, technological actions to address climate change and promote sustainable development at the same time. An iterative, structured Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR process, based on learning and innovation, is used to reconcile different goals and develop integrated solutions (Pachauri, et al., 2014). The immediate priority of this approach is to reduce vulnerability to climate change within local communities, and therefore methodologies respond to contexts and site conditions. Synergies and trade-offs between climate responses and broader sustainable development objectives are identified, evaluated, and consolidated to chart practical, high impact development pathways. While this approach appears promising, it has not been applied widely (Pachauri, et al., 2014). An exception is the Adaptive Pathway approach that was developed as a methodology to tackle climate change adaptation (Werners, et al., 2021; Lin, et al., 2017). This provides a flexible responsive approach that can be used to plan for climate change and has been applied to infrastructure such as sea defences. This study explores how this methodology can be adapted for built environments. The study presents the Adaptive Pathway methodology and shows how it can be applied. Using an exploratory research approach, the study adapts and applies the methodology to a case study site in Pretoria, South Africa. The results of this application are critically evaluated to ascertain the implications and the value of the approach. The study aims to address the following questions: • • • 2 How does the Building Adaptive Pathway methodology work? How can it be applied to the built environment? What are the results of applying the methodology? The Building Adaptive Pathways The Building Adaptive Pathway methodology has been developed from the Adaptive Pathway field (Gibberd, 2021). The Adaptive Pathway field is relatively new and was developed in 2010 as a way of dealing with uncertainty and change associated with climate change adaptation (Werners, et al., 2021; Lin, et al., 2017). The field offers tools that are used in three main ways. Firstly, these are used to understand climate change adaptation and develop plans for this. Secondly, they have been used to promote collaborative learning. Thirdly, tools have been used to manage the complexity and long-term change (Lin, et al., 2017). The Adaptive Pathways approach has been applied to flood risk planning (Jeuken, et al., 2015; Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017), developing resilient waterfronts (Kingsborough, et al., 2016), sustainable development planning (Sadr, et al., 2020), the development of small-scale PV systems (Michas, et al., 2020) and water supply planning (Cradock-Henry, et al., 2020; Klijn, et al., 2015) but not directly to built environments and urban planning. Building Adaptive Pathways refer to plans developed to navigate future change in built environments in a proactive structured way (Gibberd, 2021). Future changes are identified as key thresholds or tipping points that change the conditions of a stable system into another state (Butler, et al., 2016). By identifying these points, the methodology draws on different actions to develop a path that steers around these events, enabling disruption to be avoided (Kingsborough, et al., 2016). This path provides a plan that enables future change to be addressed in built environments. Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 2 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR The Building Adaptive Pathway methodology, therefore, envisages and preempts future change by proactively catering for this. For the methodology to work effectively, insight into the nature of future change is required. It also requires an understanding of how this future change can be catered for. 3 Methodology This study follows an exploratory research approach. This is appropriate when a field is at an early stage and methodologies have not been fully developed or tested (Stebbins, 2001). It is suitable for research that is interested in investigating a new area and developing and testing new ideas (Stebbins, 2001). Exploratory research carried out in this study aims to provide a basis for future research into how uncertainty and change can be addressed in built environments (Glaser and Strauss, 2017). It investigates how the Building Adaptive Pathway approach can be developed and applied to built environments as a way of planning for future change and uncertainty. The Adaptive Pathway methodology follows an 8-step process. This process has been adapted for buildings in this study and is outlined below. First, the system that will be addressed by the methodology is described. This includes describing the system's characteristics, the objectives of the system, the constraints in the current situation, and potential constraints in future situations. Second, alternative future situations, opportunities and vulnerabilities are identified. These are analyzed to understand their potential impacts. Third, possible actions that can be taken to address future situations are identified. These actions respond to the opportunities and vulnerabilities identified. Action can include physical changes to the environment, or management or policy changes. Fourth, actions are evaluated to ascertain whether they are effective at addressing vulnerabilities and creating opportunities. Actions that are not effective are discarded. Fifth, information from the earlier steps are used to create an Adaptation Map. This shows actions, decision points and tipping points. An example of this is shown in Figure 1. Sixth, the Adaptation Map is evaluated to define preferred pathways. This reviews the pathways, timescales, and constraints such as capacity or finance, to develop a plan that ensures that future change is catered for. Seventh, a contingency plan with corrective actions in case of unexpected events is developed. This plan can be used to fast-track, or slow down, actions enabling a responsive approach. Eighth, the earlier stages are used to develop the final Adaptive Pathway Plan which can be shared with key stakeholders and refined, before being adopted. In this study, the above steps are applied to an urban case study. Findings from this process are then critically evaluated to develop conclusions and recommendations for the study. Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 3 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR 4 Urban Case Study The urban site selected is a low-density residential site near the central business district of a city. The site is in a residential neighbourhood and there is limited social infrastructure or retail where products such as food can be purchased. Most travel to and from sites within the neighbourhood is by private vehicle. The site selected consists of a large house occupied by 2 people. The house is surrounded by a large garden and has not been upgraded so has inefficient water and energy fittings. The site was chosen as it is typical of many underutilised residential sites found in cities globally. The location, the low density and unsustainable systems of the site are representative of the type of infrastructure and built environments that are found globally and will have to be transformed to support achieve climate change targets and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Data for the case study was gathered through fieldwork and online mapping tools within Google Maps (Google, 2021). The application of the 8-step Building Adaptive Pathway methodology to the case study is presented next. 2.1 Describe the study area The first step requires the system to be described. This includes understanding the system's characteristics, the objectives of the system, the constraints in the current situation, and potential constraints in future situations. The system here can be defined as the site, the immediate neighbourhood surrounding the site and the occupants. In terms of this study, the objective of this system is the achievement of living and working patterns that support the achievement of the climate change targets. As this study has a focus on transformative actions, the key characteristics of the system that will be investigated are occupancy density, water and energy systems and the availability of services and products and work opportunities. These characteristics have been selected as they are the key factors that affect carbon emissions associated with living and working patterns (Younger et al., 2008; Goldstein, et al., 2020; Wiedenhofer, et al., 2018). Figure 1 shows the residential neighbourhood that the site is located. The suburb is about 2km from the central business district (CBD) of Pretoria, South Africa. Figure 1. Case study residential neighbourhood, Pretoria, South Africa Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 4 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR Figure 2 shows the site plan (left) and a section of the site (right). The site plan shows a swimming pool (1), the main house (2) which is about 200m2, the garden (3), a garage building (4) and the street (5). The house is occupied by 2 people, one is unemployed and the other commutes to work. An analysis of the site indicates that this does not support low carbon living and working patterns and therefore the achievement of climate change targets. The low density does not support low carbon mobility in the form of walking and cycling and public transport. The existing building has dated fittings such as electrical geysers and high-capacity toilet cisterns, so is highly energy and water inefficient. Climate change and poor maintenance have resulted in municipal energy and water tariffs that are escalating rapidly, and supplies are also increasingly unreliable (Statssa, 2016). Local access to products and services required for everyday life is limited and products like low-ecological footprint food which support low carbon lifestyles are not readily available. The lack of commercial space and activities within the neighbourhood means that local job opportunities are limited and these can only be accessed through a commute. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. Figure 2. Case study site within a residential neighbourhood, Pretoria, South Africa Supporting climate change targets will therefore require the transformation and the establishment of sustainable systems. A range of possible future scenarios is possible. The household may have insufficient income to meet ongoing increasing tariff, rates and tax costs related to the property and move out to avoid going into debt. Alternatively, a structured transformation of the site could be embarked on. This would ensure that costs remained affordable by sharing these between more users. The site offers a range of opportunities. Investments in water and energy efficiency measures could be used to reduce running costs. Additional residents could be accommodated to share costs. Onsite businesses could be included to provide additional income to meet operating costs and provide jobs. The following vulnerabilities are identified. There may not be the will by current occupants to share the property and accommodate changes. Current occupants may also not have access to the capital required to accommodate additional residents and start onsite businesses. 2.2 Possible actions Possible actions identified based on an analysis of opportunities and vulnerabilities are as follows. Firstly, measures can be taken to reduce water consumption through the installation of more efficient fittings and the use of greywater recycling and rainwater harvesting systems. This will reduce Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 5 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR operating costs, carbon emissions associated with pumping and the reliance on an unreliable municipal supply. Secondly, measures can be taken to reduce energy costs by installing more efficient equipment and installing renewable energy systems such as solar hot water and photovoltaic systems. This will also reduce operating costs, carbon emissions and reliance on an unreliable municipal grid. Thirdly, additional accommodation could be provided on the site. This would reduce operating costs as costs were shared amongst more occupants. Higher densities would also reduce carbon emissions as energy and water systems could be more efficient and public transport and walking supported. Fourthly, small businesses could be developed on the site. These would reduce operating costs as these were shared amongst more users. They could also generate local employment resulting enabling more local income to be generated to cover operating costs. Local businesses would also reduce carbon emissions by making available services and products, such as fresh fruit and vegetables with low carbon footprints were within walking distance of residents. 2.3 Evaluate actions The actions identified in ‘Possible Actions’ are evaluated in this stage. This assesses the action in terms of vulnerability, opportunity and date required. The vulnerability assessment reflects the extent to which the proposed action resolves vulnerabilities identified. The opportunity assessment evaluates whether new additional opportunities are created as a result of the action. The date required assessment indicates the date by which the action should be taken to address the vulnerability. This evaluation is shown in Table 1. Table 1. Pathway scorecard for the project (author). Actions Vulnerability Opportunity Date required Water measures ++ + 1-2 years Energy measures ++ + 1-2 years Residential expansion +++ ++ 3-5 years Commercial inclusion ++ +++ 5-8 years Address vulnerabilities fully +++ Creates new opportunities +++ Partially addresses vulnerability ++ Partially creates new opportunities ++ Does not address vulnerability + Does not create new opportunities + Key 2.4 Assembly of pathways The information from previous steps is used to assemble pathways and create an Adaptation Map with a portfolio of actions that address vulnerabilities and create opportunities for the building. This is shown in Figure 4. Once this map has been created, possible pathways can be identified and evaluated. 2.5 Preferred pathways Figure 4 shows possible actions and pathways. It indicates that the current situation is unsustainable and that within the next 3 years will reach a tipping point. This tipping point is when the household is not able to afford the operating costs in the form of energy, water, rates and taxes for the site while at the same time water and energy supplies become increasingly unreliable. To avoid this, energy measures can be taken to reduce energy consumption from the municipal grid through more efficient Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 6 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR fittings and renewable energy systems. Similarly, water measures can be taken to reduce water consumption from the municipal grid through efficient fittings, greywater systems and rainwater harvesting systems. While these measures help achieve carbon emission reductions and operational cost savings, the capital costs of these systems are substantial. In addition, these measures do not address the issue of density. Residential expansion could be undertaken to increase density by accommodating more residents on the site. Capital costs of sustainable off-grid systems could be shared between more users making these more affordable. However, this measure does not address access to local products and services and job opportunities. Commercial inclusion, which is the addition of small business units on the site could help address this issue. This could be used to support more sustainable living and working patterns and reduce carbon emissions as enterprises such as a local greengrocer and small repair business mean that residents can access local work opportunities as well as services and products that promote low carbon living. Fig. 3. Building Adaptive Pathways for the project (author). 4. 1. 5. 2. 3. Figure 4. Redevelopment of the case study site within a residential neighbourhood, Pretoria, South Africa (author). The result of these actions could result in the type of development shown in Figure 4. This shows the developed plan of the site with gardens for recreation and food production (1), residential apartments (2), a service area for renewable energy, rainwater and greywater systems and recycling (3) and small commercial activities (4). This is also shown in the section which indicates the different sustainable systems that would support low carbon living and working patterns. Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 7 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR 2.6 Contingency planning A contingency plan would be developed to enable corrective actions to be undertaken to stay on track in case of more rapid change or unforeseen events. This plan would include triggers and contingency actions that responded to these events. Key actions and associated triggers and responses are outlined in Table 2. Table 2. Contingency plan for the project (author). Actions Trigger Response Energy measures Annual energy increases over 10% Energy outages for more than 2 days Fastrack transformation Water measures Annual water increases over 10% Water outages for more than 2 days Fastrack transformation Residential expansion Continued/increasing lack of affordable accommodation in well-located sites. Continued/increasing lack of reliable and affordable public transport to outlying residential areas. Fastrack transformation Commercial inclusion Continued/increasing high unemployment rates Continued/increasing lack of support for small enterprises and access to local sustainable products and services. Fastrack transformation This shows that how trigger events such as rapid increases in energy and water tariffs as well extended energy and water outages would result in the fast-tracking of the transformation of the site. Residential expansion fast-tracking would be triggered by continued or increasing lack of affordable accommodation in well-located sites as well as the continued or increasing lack of public transport to outlying residential areas. Similarly, commercial inclusion would be fast-tracked if there was continued or increasing levels of unemployment and continued or increasing lack of support for small enterprises and access to local sustainable products and services. 2.7 Dynamic adaptive plan The results from the early steps can then be developed into a Building Adaptive Pathway plan. This provides a plan for the transformation of the site. The plan provides objectives, the actions and phasing, contingency plans, and costs. The rationale for the plan and the implications of not implementing this should also be provided. This enables a comprehensive plan to be understood and implemented by decision-makers. 5 Discussion The study indicates that the Building Adaptive Pathway can be applied to built environments. The structure of the methodology is simple and easy to use. Steps in the process are considerably different to conventional built environment development plans and provide valuable insight into alternative ways that can be used to transform built environments. A review of the approach needs to answer the following questions. Does the methodology align with the IPPC’s proposed approach outlined at the beginning of the paper? Secondly, does the methodology appear to provide useful ideas and tools for achieving the type of transformation required? A review of the approach suggests that it aligns well with the IPCC proposed transformational approach. The Building Pathway methodology encourages a transformational approach through the following characteristics. Firstly, it requires the objectives of the system to be defined, and thus, in Proceedings of the CIB International Conference on Smart Built Environment, ICSBE 2021 8 Author(s) “properly formatted”, YEAR this case, climate change becomes an explicit goal from the onset. Secondly, the approach requires vulnerabilities and opportunities to be identified. This assessment encourages the investigation of the issue in a broader, more lateral way and is likely to increase the variety of actions, including social, economic and technological options, that are considered. It also promotes an approach that is responsive to the local context and issues. Thirdly, the approach includes a stage during which actions are evaluated to ascertain whether they will achieve stated objectives. This helps avoid incremental or insufficient solutions as actions that do not sufficiently contribute to transformation are discarded. Proposed actions developed by the approach include the development of sustainable energy and water system systems, residential densification, and the inclusion of commercial activities. The solutions are more radical than conventional climate change programmes that may include options such as improved lighting and solar water heating. The level of change offered by the actions developed through the Building Adaptation Pathway approach is much more significant and transformational than conventional incremental approaches. The approach also appears to encourage the consideration of co-benefits. For instance, proposed energy and water measures not only significantly reduce climate change impacts (environmental) they also reduce operating costs (economic), reduce the negative effects of water and energy outages (social and economic) and create jobs (social and economic). In resource-constrained contexts, such as developing countries, these co-benefits may be important tools for promoting change as they ensure important social and economic objectives such as improved health and education and employment are addressed at the same time as climate change. Conclusion and Recommendations To address climate change it is becoming apparent that our built environments need to be transformed. This study adapts and applies the Adaptation Pathway methodology as a means of planning this transformation. Results from this process indicate that a range of actions can be generated and evaluated. It also shows that a responsive, flexible plan can be developed. 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