Cryospheric change in China

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248243349 Cryospheric Change in China Article in Global and Planetary Change · June 2008 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.02.001 CITATIONS READS 143 231 10 authors, including: Guodong Cheng Rui Jin Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences 245 PUBLICATIONS 5,707 CITATIONS 64 PUBLICATIONS 1,094 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Jian Wang Yongping Shen University of Electronic Science and Technol… Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and En… 747 PUBLICATIONS 5,594 CITATIONS 58 PUBLICATIONS 1,529 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Integrated modeling of the water-ecosystem-economy system in the Heihe River Basin View project Hydrological impacts from degrading permafrost in the Source Area of Yellow River View project All content following this page was uploaded by Xin Li on 05 January 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.  Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Global and Planetary Change j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / g l o p l a c h a Cryospheric change in China Xin Li ⁎, Guodong Cheng, Huijun Jin, Ersi Kang, Tao Che, Rui Jin, Lizong Wu, Zhuotong Nan, Jian Wang, Yongping Shen Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China World Data Center for Glaciology and Geocryology in Lanzhou, Lanzhou 730000, China a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date Received 28 August 2007 statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 Accepted 20 February 2008 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km2. The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km3 Available online 6 March 2008 and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 109 m3. The continuous snow cover extent (N 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 106 km2 and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 109 m3 yr− 1. The permafrost area in China is Keywords: about 1.72 × 106 km2. The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about cryosphere 10,923 km3. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past China 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly climate change snow degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower glacier limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage permafrost could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high- temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction rapid changes, such as retreating glaciers, degrading permafrost, destabilizing cryospheric environments and the resulting increase in As an integral part of the global climate system, the cryosphere plays hazards (Jin et al., 2000; Qin, 2002; Kang et al., 2004; Shen, 2004; Qin a significant role in the energy and water cycle of the Earth's surface. It is et al., 2006b). usually considered as an indicator of global change because the frozen Section 2 of this paper introduces basic statistics of major parts of the Earth's surface, i.e., snow, glaciers, sea/lake/river ice, and cryospheric components in China. In Section 3, recent findings of permafrost are more sensitive to climatic change than other land surface cryospheric change are reviewed. Section 4 predicts future cryo- components. The cryosphere is also an amplifier of climatic warming spheric changes in China. Section 5 concisely summarizes the paper. because temperature rise in cryospheric regions is generally larger than that in other regions and the positive feedback of cryosphere to climate 2. The cryosphere in China system can enhance the climatic warming (Cheng 1996; Allison et al., 2001; IPCC, 2001; IPCC, 2007). The cryosphere in China is composed mainly of mountain glaciers, China's vast expanse of cryosphere contains a large portion of the latitudinal and altitudinal permafrost, seasonally frozen ground, and world's middle-altitude and low-latitude mountain glaciers. China's snow cover. Sea, lake, and river ice also occurs in northern China and permafrost area ranks third in the world and is the largest in terms of on the QTP, but with relatively insignificant impact on the climate middle- and high-altitude permafrost areas. In particular, the Qinghai– system. Tibetan Plateau (QTP) plays a very important role in global change. Recent investigations show the cryosphere in China is experiencing 2.1. Glaciers Up-to-date statistics on mountain glaciers were derived from the ⁎ Corresponding author. 320 West Donggang Road, Cold and Arid Regions Environ- mental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), which was accomplished in 2002 (Liu 730000, Gansu Province, China. Tel.: +86 931 4967249; fax: +86 931 8279161. et al., 2000; Shi, 2005), and the Chinese Glacier Information System E-mail address: lixin@lzb.ac.cn (X. Li). (CGIS), which was established in 2004 (Wu and Li, 2004). The CGIS is a 0921-8181/$ – see front matter © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.02.001  X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 211 Fig. 1. Distribution of glaciers in China (The vertical bars denote the magnitudes of glacier numbers, total area and total volume in each drainage system; the table shows the river basin code (ID), and statistics of glacier numbers (N), total area (A), total volume (V) and average length (L) of glaciers in each river basin). modified CGI, in which strict quality control was conducted. Fig. 1 2.2. Snow illustrates the distribution of glaciers in China. Glacier distribution from the CGI maps and from topographic maps was digitized, and A long time series dataset of snow depth and snow water equiv- some editing errors in CGI were corrected. According to the CGIS alent (SWE) from 1978 to 2005 in China was developed using passive and the Concise Chinese Glacier Inventory1, there are 46,377 glaciers microwave remote sensing including the Scanning Multichannel in China that cover an area of 59,425.18 km2, which is 51.2% and Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ 10.9–11.6% of the mountain glacier area in Asia (116.18 × 103 km2) Imager (SSM/I) (Che and Li, 2005; Che, 2006). The data show that (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005) and on Earth (excluding the glaciers maximum annual SWE of about 17.8 × 109 m3 is located in Xinjiang and and ice caps surrounding Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets) the western part of Inner Mongolia, 41.9 × 109 m3 on the QTP including (512 × 103 – 546 × 103 km2) (Lemke et al., 2007), respectively. The the Pamir Plateau and the Qilian Mountains, and 36.2 × 109 m3 in north- total ice reserve was estimated using empirical relationships estab- eastern China. The maximum areal extent of snow cover occurs in lished by regression analysis of the glacier areas and radar-measured March, mid-January, and late February in the three above mentioned glacier depths (Liu and Ding, 1986). The total ice reserve of Chinese zones, respectively. The total maximum SWE of the three major snow mountain glaciers is estimated to be about 5600 km3 or 5.04× 1012 m3 covered regions in China is 95.9 × 109 m3 yr− 1, which is about 10% of the in water equivalent, which is about five times the annual runoff of the normal annual discharge of the Yangtze River. Continuous snowcover Yangtze River (9.6 × 1011 m3). Annual glacier runoff was about existing for more than 60 days is about 3.4 × 106 km2 and for more than 61.6 × 109 m3 in 1980, when the glaciers were inventoried. The value 120 days about 1.5 × 106 km2 (Che et al., submitted for publication). was estimated by using the systematic model, which was based on Fig. 2 shows the distribution of averaged snow depth and continuous an empirical equation relating glacier ablation with mean summer snow cover extent in China. The above statistics are close to those temperature (Xie et al., 2002; Xie et al., 2006). Glacier runoff is a very derived from an earlier study (Kang et al., 2004). The annual snowfall important water resource in the arid regions of northwest China. In recharge was estimated to be over 3.45 × 1011 m3 (Li, 1988). However, western China, glacier melt runoff accounts for 11.9% of total discharge. this value needs to be reevaluated by using both remote sensing data For inland rivers and outflow rivers, glacier runoff accounts for 24.3% and in situ observations. and 8.7% of the annual runoff, respectively (Kang et al., 2004; Xie et al., 2006). 2.3. Frozen soil 1 The statistics in the Concise Chinese Glacier Inventory are based on CGIS, with new Statistics on extent of permafrost area vary in the published lit- data from the Bangong Lake area being added (Shi, 2005). erature (Jin et al., 2000; Qiu et al., 2000; Zhou et al., 2000). According 212 X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 Fig. 2. Distribution of snow in China. to an up-to-date frozen soil map of China, the Map of the Glaciers, Table 1 summarizes recent investigations on changes of glacier Frozen Ground and Desert in China (Wang et al., 2006), the permafrost areal extents. Most data were derived from remote sensing data. Fig. 4 area in China is about 1.72 × 106 km2 (glaciers and lakes in the perma- shows the locations of the investigations in Table 1, with area changes frost area are excluded) and the seasonal frozen ground area (exclud- and number of glaciers investigated. Kang et al. (2004) extracted the ing intermittently frozen ground) is about 5.21 × 106 km2 (Fig. 3). area change of all glaciers in China (Table 2). As a total, to date China's Together, they occupy 72% of China's land territory. Most permafrost in glaciers have shrunk 5.5% since 1960s. China is altitudinal and distributed on the QTP, in northeastern China and in other mountainous areas. The area of altitudinal permafrost is 3.2. Snow cover change approximately 1.36 × 106 km2. The ice reserve in permafrost is huge. Nan (2003) estimated the ice volume in permafrost on the QTP to be The variability of snow cover in China and its response to climatic about 10,923 km3, assuming an average thickness of 61.5 m. This change is more complex than glacier change. Analysis of snow cover estimated ice reserve is approximately two times the total glacier ice variability and change is difficult; very little work has been carried reserve in China. out. Chen and Wu (2000) used data from ground stations to analyze 3. Cryospheric change snow cover variability on the QTP and showed that in the 1970s snow cover increased from light to heavy. Li (1999) revealed that in north- 3.1. Glacier trends western China, the snow cover experienced no significant decrease from 1987 to 1999. Li's data included SMMR snow charts, NOAA Glacier change in the last few decades in China has been in- weekly snow cover chart, and snow data from selected metrological vestigated by many Chinese glaciologists. Results show that glacier stations in western China. Li's findings are further verified by Qin et al. retreat is common but varies spatiotemporally. Area shrinkage is (2006a). Their results show that long-term variability of snow cover in significant in the Himalayas (Qin et al., 2000; Ren et al., 2004; Jin et al., western China is characterized by large interannual variations super- 2005), Qilian Mountains (Liu et al., 2002), and Tianshan Mountains imposed on a small increasing trend for the period 1951–1997. No (He et al., 1999; Shi, 2000; Liu et al., 2006), with area shrinkage about abrupt change in snow cover was found. But over the QTP, a large 5–10% over the last 30 yr. Glaciers in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau interannual oscillation is the most striking feature, and annual am- are relatively stable (Li et al., 1998; Lu et al., 2002; Liu et al., 2004). plitude has increased since 1980s. However, in recent years, glacier shrinkage in mountainous areas is These conclusions are consistent with the results of Ke and Li accelerating (Shi, 2001). (1998), Che and Li (2005), and Che (2006). However, Che (2006)  X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 213 Fig. 3. Distribution of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground in China. recommends that analysis of a long time series of snow data derived the 1:100,000 map of island permafrost compiled in 1975, for the from remote sensing data is needed to analyze change in snow cover Liangdaohe area of the southern QTH (with a width of 2 km on each in China. side), the permafrost area was 64.8 km2 within the measured area of Another important factor to consider is seasonal changes in the 320 km2, or about 20%. The permafrost areas were divided into four beginning and ending dates of recorded snowfall and duration of groups according to geomorphic locations. Recent comprehensive snow cover. However, we did not find any published literature that investigations indicate that the permafrost area has decreased to addressed this issue. 41.7 km2, suggesting a reduction of 35.6% in the island permafrost area (Wang et al., 1996; Wang, 1997; Wang et al., 2000; Jin et al., 2000, 3.3. Frozen soil trends 2006). Investigations using ground penetration radar (GPR) provide more China's permafrost, especially the altitudinal permafrost which detailed evidence. Nan et al. (2003) conducted a GPR survey in the is mainly distributed on the QTP, is sensitive to climatic warming. Xidatan, QTP in 2002. They found that the permafrost area in the Significant permafrost degradation has occurred and continues to region had diminished to 141.0 km2 from 160.5 km2 surveyed in 1975, occur in most permafrost regions of China. Areal extent of seasonally displaying a shrinkage of about 12%. frozen ground is shrinking and the frozen layer is decreasing in depth. Observations on the QTP since the 1970s have shown that the In this section, we introduce evidence for shrinkage of permafrost lower limit of permafrost had risen 25 to 80 m (Wang et al., 2000). On areas, elevation of the lower limit of mountain permafrost, increasing Xidatan, the north part of the QTP, it experienced an increase in ground temperatures, deepening of the active layer, and thinning of elevation of 25 m from 1975 to 2002 (Nan et al., 2003). In the the seasonal frost depth. hinterland of the QTP, such as Amdo and Mado, the lower boundary has risen about 40–50 m. In the boundary areas of the QTP, such as the 3.3.1. Shrinkage of permafrost areal extent and elevation of the lower Qilian Mountains, the rise of the lower boundary of permafrost has limit of mountain permafrost reached up to 80 m. A preliminary estimate for the reduction of permafrost areal ex- In northeast China, the degradation of warm, isolated patches of tent on the QTP is 0.1 × 106 km2 from 1970s to mid-1990s (Wang, 1997; permafrost is more severe than on the QTP because of dramatic cli- Jin et al., 1999). Observations show that along the Qinghai–Tibet mate warming and strong influences from human activities such as Highway (QTH), the southern lower limit of permafrost has moved deforestation. The patchy permafrost has disappeared in the south- 12 km northward, whereas the northern lower limit has moved ern Da and Xiao Xing'anling Mountains, where mean annual ground 3 km southward (Wang and Mi, 1993; Jin et al., 2006). According to temperatures (MAGTs) range from −0.5 to +0.5 °C, and permafrost 214 X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 Table 1 Changes of glacier areal extents in China Study area and location Data used Period Glacier Area at the Area at end Area Reference number start of record (km2) of record (km2) change (%) Pumqu River basin, Himalayas Topographic map (1970, 80s), ASTER 1970s–2001 999 1462 ± 9 1330 ± 8 −9.0 Jin et al. (2005) and CBERS (2001) Poiqu River basin, Himalayas Topographic map (1970, 80s), IRS 1970s–2000 153 236.8 231.6 −2.2 Wu et al. (2004) 1D-LISS 3 (2000, 2001) Rongxer River basin, Himalayas Same as above 1970s–2000 200 334.3 324.1 −3.1 Wu et al. (2004) Glacier Reqiang, Xixiapama Mt., Himalayas MSS (1977 and 1984), TM (1990 and 1977–2003 1 6.92 5.34 − 22.9 Che et al., 2005 1996), ETM+ (2000), ASTER (2003) Glacier Jicongpu, Xixiapama Mt., Same as above 1977–2003 1 20.28 18.81 −7.3 Che et al. (2005) Himalayas Naimona'nyi region, western Himalayas MSS (1976), ASTER (2003) 1976–2003 N/A 84.41 77.29 −8.4 Ye et al. (2006a) Gangrigabu range, southeast QTP Topographic map (1980), CBERS (2001) 1980–2001 88 797.78 795.76 −0.25 Liu et al. (2005) Xinqingfeng ice cap, Northern QTP Aerial photograph (1971), ETM+ (2000) 1971–2000 64 442.7 435.3 −1.7 Liu et al. (2004) Malan ice cap, Northern QTP Same as above 1971–2000 65 247.08 248.14 +0.43 Liu et al. (2004) Mountainous areas of Tarim basin Topographic map (1960, 70s), TM/ETM+ 1963–1999 3081 9998.5 9542.3 −4.6 Liu et al. (2006) (1999–2001) Muztahgata Mountains Aerial photograph (1965), ASTER (2001) 1965–2001 128 377.21 373.04 −1.1 Cai et al. (2006) Karamilan–Keriya River, Tarim basin Topographic map (1970s), TM/ETM+ 1970–2000 895 1374.18 1334.91 −2.9 Xu et al. (2006) (1999–2001) Kaidu River basin, Middle Tianshan Topographic map (1963), ETM+ (2000) 1963–2000 70 55 48 −13 Li et al. (2006) Mountains Glacier No. 1, Urumqi River, Tianshan Large-scale topographic map (1963 and 1962–2003 1 1.95 1.71 −12.4 Li et al. (2003b); Mountains 2003) Ye et al. (2005) Daxueshan Mt., Western Qilian Mountains Aerial photograph (1956), TM (1990) 1956–1990 175 162.8 155.1 −4.7 Liu et al. (2002) A'nyêmaqên Range, the upper Yellow Aerial photograph (1966), TM (2000) 1966–2000 57 125.50 103.80 −17.3 Lu et al. (2005) River Geladandong Mt., the upper Yangtze River Aerial photograph (1969), ETM+ (2002) 1969–2002 N/A 889.31 ± 0.02 846.81 ± 0.0007 −4.8 Ye et al. (2006b) Yurungkax River, western Kunlun Mountains TM (1989), ETM+ (2001) 1989–2001 42 1372.39 1366.06 −0.5 Shangguan et al. (2004) Muztag Ata-Kongur Tagh, the Pamir Plateau Aerial photograph (1962–66), ASTER 1962/1966– 379 1092.7 1025.8 −6.2 Shangguan et al. (2001) 2001 (2005) Note: (1) In the column “data used”, the original data used instead of the CGI are indicated. The glacier parameters in CGI are usually derived from the aerial photographs from the 1960s to 1980s. (2) There is some overlap of glacier change data in the mountainous areas of Tarim basin, Muztahgata Mountains, and Karamilan–Keriya River of Tarim basin. (3) ASTER: Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. CBERS: China–Brazil Earth Resource Satellite. ETM+: Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus. IRS 1D-LISS: Indian Remote Sensing satellite series 1D, Linear Imaging and Self-scanning Sensor. MSS: Multispectral Scanner. TM: Thematic Mapper. thicknesses vary from 5 to 15 m. Investigations show that in one of the active layer had clearly thickened, particularly in the warm (≥−1 °C) forestry bureaus in the Xiao Xing'anling Mountains, the areal per- permafrost area. They concluded that in cold (b−1 °C) permafrost centage of permafrost has decreased from 10.5% in 1957 to 0.05% in areas, the thaw penetration deepened by 3.1 cm/yr on average, where- 1980 and the degradation is believed to be closely related to defores- as in warm permafrost areas, it deepened 8.4 cm/yr on average. tation. With this rate of deforestation and subsequent permafrost Active layer thickening is even more dramatic in northeastern degradation, permafrost may have completely thawed in this forestry China. Maximum thaw penetration depth at a wetland site in the bureau area by now. The distribution of island permafrost in other Daxing'anling Mountains was 50–70 cm during the 1960s–1970s. sites has also degraded substantially over the past 30 to 40 yr (Jin et al., However, it increased to 90–120 cm or greater during the 1990s. At 2007). Yitulihe Permafrost Observatory, maximum thaw penetration increased by 16 cm during the three year period from 1996 to 1999, 3.3.2. Borehole monitoring with an average rate of 5.3 cm per year (Jin et al., 2007). Monitoring along the QTH from Golmud to Lhasa indicates that mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs) are experiencing in- 3.3.4. Seasonal freezing creases of about 0.3–0.5 °C in seasonal frozen ground, taliks, and Zhao et al. (2004) investigated the freezing depth change at 50 island permafrost zones, and about 0.1–0.3 °C in the continuous per- meteorological stations on the QTP from 1967 to 1997. They found mafrost zones (Jin et al., 2000; Wang et al., 2000). Table 3 contains that the depth of seasonal frozen ground thinned about 22 cm in the monitoring results from some representative stations. interior QTP, with an averaged annual decreasing rate of 0.71 cm. In Wu et al. (2005) recently found that the temperature of permafrost northeastern QTP, the depth of seasonally frozen ground thinned (at 6 m depth) is increasing at a rate of 0.05 °C/yr and 0.02 °C/yr in the 21 cm, with a mean annual decreasing rate of 0.7 cm. In northwest and low- and high-temperature permafrost areas on the QTP, respectively. southeast QTP, the decrease of seasonally frozen ground depth is not so significant, with thinning of 6 cm in the interior QTP and 5 cm in 3.3.3. Active layer thickening northeastern QTP over a 30 yr period. Cold region engineering, i.e., maintenance of the QTH and con- Wang et al. (2005a) also summarized the change of seasonally fro- struction of the Qinghai–Tibet Railroad (QTR), has provided good op- zen ground depth at 16 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province. portunities to observe changes in permafrost and many monitoring The mean value of frozen depth was 144 cm from 1961 to 1970, but systems have been established. A remarkable thickening of the active decreased to 124 cm in the period 1990 to 2001. layer has been observed on the QTP. Wu and Liu (2004) and Wu et al. Wang et al. (2005b) used data from 19 stations in Xinjiang to (2005) analyzed temperature data collected from 1995 to 2004 at 11 analyze the variation of seasonal freezing from 1961 to 2002. The mean sites in the permafrost area along the QTH and QTR and found that the and maximum frost penetration depths have thinned significantly  X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 215 Fig. 4. Glacier change in China (The dot denotes the magnitude of change of glacier areal extent, the number with the dot shows the percentage of area change and number of glaciers that have been investigated). with decreased values ranging from 7 to 37 cm. The freezing–thawing value of 67.5 × 109 m3–70.8 × 109 m3 in about 2030. Thereafter, glacier period has also shortened. The freezing date is four days earlier and runoff potentially will show a decreasing trend. Until 2050, however, thawing date is five days later in the season. runoff will be greater than in 2000. 4. Predictions of future cryospheric change 4.2. Snow 4.1. Glaciers Qin (2002) and Kang et al. (2004) delineated possible changes of snow by extrapolating current trends and analyzing the relationship It is predicted that China's mountain glaciers will experience rapid between snowfall, air temperature and precipitation. They suggest retreat under a warming climate scenario. According to Shi (2001), that snow mass will increase slightly on the QTP and in Xinjiang and most glaciers with area less than 1 km2 will disappear before 2050. snow variability will increase, implying an increase of snow blizzards Table 4 summarizes detailed predictions of glacier change for differ- and other associated hazards. For example, the possibility for spring ent glacier types (Shi and Liu, 2000; Qin, 2002; Kang et al., 2004). The drought will tend to increase due to snow melt earlier in the season. scenarios of temperature rise are based on predictions from the However, in northeastern China and Inner Mongolia, snow mass may HadCM2 (Second Hadley Centre Coupled Model). It should be noted decrease. that precipitation change was not taken into account. However, pre- cipitation is very likely to increase in west China and the QTP (Qin, Table 2 2002; IPCC, 2007, pp 879 ∼ 887). More precipitation will result in more Glacier change from the 1960s to 2000 in China (Kang et al., 2004) ice accumulation on glaciers. Therefore, the predicted values in Table 4 can be considered as maximum decreases. Glacier type Area (km2) Decrease Area area (km2) change (%) Glacier runoff will increase because glacier melting will accelerate 1960s 2000 (Shi, 2001; Xie et al., 2006). Xie et al. (2002, 2006) used a systematic Extreme continental type 19,137.73 18,685.54 452.19 2.4 model to simulate future changes in glacier runoff. According to their Sub-continental type 27,008.18 25,390.53 1617.65 6.0 model, total glacier runoff in China was 61.6 × 109 m3 in the 1980s and Maritime type 13,254.16 12,076.28 1177.88 8.9 was estimated to be 66.0 × 109 m3–68.2 × 109 m3 in 2000. If air tem- Total 59,400.07 56,152.35 3247.72 5.5 perature rises at a rate of 0.02 k/yr or 0.03 k/yr, glacier runoff will Note: The total areas listed in this table differ slightly from the areas described in increase continuously from 2000 to 2030, and will reach its maximum Section 2 because different data sources are used (Kang et al., 2004). 216 X. Li et al. / Global and Planetary Change 62 (2008) 210–218 Table 3 Changes in mean annual ground temperatures along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway (Jin et al., 2000; Wang et al., 2000) Borehole JXG CK114 CK124-4 Ck123-4 CK-7 K2956 No.1 CK123-7 Location Xidantan Taoerjiu Valley Basin Tongtian Cumar FHS Basin Permafrost zone Northern lower limit Continuous/island Southern lower limit Seasonally frozen River taliks Continuous Continuous Island permafrost boundary ground permafrost permafrost permafrost Present MAGT (°C) 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 −0.9 −2.8 − 1.0 Rise from 1970–1990s (°C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 Note: The MAGT here is defined as the mean annual ground temperature at about 15 m. Different model simulations show that snow melt runoff in the permafrost stability along the QTH using the altitude model and a inland river basins of northwestern China will definitely increase thermal stability based permafrost classification system (Cheng and (Kang et al., 2002). Wang and Li (2006) chose the upper Heihe River Wang, 1982). Results show that permafrost stability will change sig- Basin as a case study area and used a degree-day factor based snow- nificantly under climatic warming. Areal extent of permafrost along melt runoff model to simulate possible changes of snowmelt runoff the highway will decrease and the permafrost zone will move upward in response to a warming scenario of 4 °C air temperature rise. Sim- and degrade. Areas of extreme stable zone, stable zone and sub-stable ulation results show an earlier snow melting period, an increase in zone will decrease, while the areas of transit zone, unstable zone and water flows in this earlier melting season, and a decline in flows in extreme unstable zone will increase. later melting seasons. The probabilistic prediction of active layer depth according to a warming climate along the QTR was also attempted recently. First, air 4.3. Frozen soil temperatures from the IPCC A2 scenario, which are used as the forc- ing data to run the frozen soil model, were perturbed to generate 100 Due to the combined influence of climatic warming and increasing ensemble members using the Monte Carlo method. Then, using a land anthropogenic activities, substantial retreat of permafrost is expected surface model (Dai et al., 2003), the active layer depth and its on the QTP and in northeastern China during the 21st century. Dif- probability distribution in the next 100 yr were calculated by the ferent modeling approaches including empirical and more physically- ensemble prediction. Results show that thaw penetration along the based models were used to predict the permafrost change. Li and QTR will deepen 10–40 cm by 2050 and 20–70 cm by 2100 (Yang, Cheng (1999) used the altitude model, an empirical model that relates 2007). The uncertainties of the prediction, in terms of standard de- the lower limit of altitudinal permafrost with latitude (Cheng, 1984), viation, were also quantified. to predict the occurrence of permafrost. The results show that the In northeastern China, with a warming of 1.0–1.5 °C during the areal extent of permafrost degradation is about 8% when air tem- next 40–50 yr, the southern limit of permafrost would shift north- perature rises about 0.5 °C by 2019. When air temperature rises about wards. Present patchy permafrost would largely disappear, the 1.1 °C by 2049, permafrost on the QTP will change significantly with southern limit of permafrost would approach the present southern the degraded area reaching about 18%. More drastically, by the year boundary of discontinuous permafrost zone with island taliks, which 2099, if air temperature increases by an average of 2.9 °C on the QTP, will be converted to isolated patches of permafrost. Current wide- the degraded permafrost area will exceed 58%. Almost all the perma- spread continuous permafrost would become discontinuous. In 40– frost in the southern QTP and in the eastern QTP will be in degradation 50 yr, the area of residual permafrost in the Da and Xiao Xing'anling (Li and Cheng, 1999; Li et al., 2003a). However, it should be noted that Mountains would be 35% of today's total permafrost area (Jin et al., there will be a lag time for the response of permafrost in deep ground 2007). to climatic warming. Nan et al. (2005) also simulated future permafrost change on the 5. Summary QTP using a physically-based model (Li et al., 1996). Simulation results showed that in the case of 0.02 °C/yr air–temperature rise, the China has vast areas of cryosphere within the QTP and its nu- permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8% in the next 50 yr, merous mountain areas. This paper provides an overview of the cur- and high-temperature permafrost with MAGT higher than −0.11 °C rent status of the cryosphere in China and its changes based on the may be converted into seasonally frozen ground. In the next 100 yr, latest available data. The up-to-date statistics of glaciers, perma- permafrost with MAGT higher than −0.5 °C will disappear and the frost, seasonally frozen ground, perennial and seasonal snow cover are permafrost area will shrink by 13.4%. In the case of 0.052 °C/yr air– summarized. Recent observations from both remote sensing and in temperature rise, the permafrost area on the QTP will shrink by about situ showed that the cryosphere in China is experiencing a rapid 13.5% after 50 yr. More remarkable degradation will take place after change: China's glaciers have shrunk by 5.5% from the 1960s to date; 100 yr, and permafrost area will be reduced about 46%. Permafrost snowfall variation fluctuates interannually with a slight increasing areas warmer than −2 °C will thaw. trend; significant permafrost degradation is occurring in most perma- Climatic warming will also have a significant impact on the en- frost regions in China. Future trends are predicted by models, which gineering properties of permafrost. Wu et al. (2000) predicted the indicate that the glacier recession could be very rapid, the trend of Table 4 Prediction of future glacier change in China (Shi and Liu, 2000; Qin, 2002; Kang et al., 2004) Glacier type Current Area (km2) 2030 2050 Air temperature rise Reduced area (km2) Decrease rate (%) Air temperature rise Reduced area (km2) Decrease rate (%) in summer (°C) in summer (°C) Extreme continental type 22,497 0.56 1237 5.5 1.40 3105 13.8 Sub-continental type 23,649 0.46 3027 12.8 0.97 5770 24.4 Maritime type 13,254 0.38 4095 30.9 0.65 6958 52.5 Total 59,400 0.47 8359 14.1 1.00 15,833 26.7  X. 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