History Repeats Itself
with Hurricane Katrina
Jennifer A Adams
The University of Akron
Spring 2015
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Abstract
Hurricane Katrina began as a tropical depression 175 miles southeast of Nassau on
August 23, 2005. On August 26, as a Category 1 Hurricane, Katrina made landfall over
southeast Florida. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, the atmosphere and high ocean
temperatures fueled Katrina to a Category 5 and put her on a path toward Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama. No-one was prepared for the Category 4 hurricane that was
to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana, not once but twice on August 29, 2005. Two
days before landfall, the state of Louisiana began voluntary evacuations. With less than
24 hours until landfall, the Superdome and other hurricane evacuation centers began
opening and receiving citizens. Mandatory evacuation did not begin until it was almost
too late to evacuate. When the sun came up, on the morning of August 30, the officials
began to see where they failed. This paper will review how Southeast Louisiana is no
stranger to hurricanes yet was unprepared for numerous large-scale storms and how
history, resiliency, and social science research can help prepare not only Louisiana but
all other communities be prepared for the next large or small scale storm.
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History Repeats Itself
To those along the coasts of The Gulf of Mexico tropical storms and hurricanes are a
regular occurrence. The first recorded hurricane in Louisiana dates back to the Spanish
explorer Ponifo de Narvarez on October 23, 1527. (Kingery, 2006). The first written
history of a hurricane was from a storm that began on September 22, 1722 and ended
September 24, 1722. This storm packed 15 hours of hurricane force winds, three days
of flooding, and 8 foot storm surges. It destroyed the area hospital and 36 huts. Ships
were sunk in the harbors and lakes. River and tidal overflow reached a 3 foot high
levee that was built to protect New Orleans — water poured into the city. Because of
this storm, a more comprehensive levee system was begun trying to keep Mother
Nature out of New Orleans. At this time, lawmakers were considering New Orleans to
be the capital of Louisiana Company. With the amount of damage, they chose to move
the capital 90 miles north to Baton Rouge.
Damage was recorded from the following storms: Hurricane of 1776, Hurricane of
1779 (ships from the harbor were found in the middle of the woods), Hurricane of 1794
(the storm surge produced crop damage and the Plaquemines engulfed Fort St. Peter
and drowned the chief engineer), Hurricane of 1800, and Hurricane of 1811.
The Hurricane of August 19, 1812 left most of New Orleans under water as the
storm surge submerged southern areas of the city and left at least 100 dead. The levee
system was destroyed and Plaquemines Parish was under fifteen feet of water. The
Great Barbados Hurricane of August 16, 1831 killed over 1500 people and storm surge
damaged sugarcane crops from Baton Rouge to below New Orleans.
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Between 1851 and 2010, Louisiana as a state had a total of 57 hurricanes, of
which 20 were considered major (major is defined as a Category 3 or higher) (NOAA,
2011) including the equivalent of a Category 4 Hurricane (see Appendix A for the Saffir
Simpson Hurricane Scale) in 1915 that caused drainage pumps in New Orleans to lose
power; parts of Mid-City neighborhoods to suffer significant flooding. Damage from this
storm included 13-foot storm surges, levees south of New Orleans were decimated and
miles of levees in Plaquemines Parish were washed away and caused significant
flooding (over 200 people died). In a report dated October 14, 1915 to The Sewage and
Water Board of New Orleans from Geo G Earl; he highly recommended more
substantial and higher levees for the protection of the city due in part to high lake tides
coming into the city from Lake Pontchartrain. This hurricane was the deadliest in New
Orleans until Hurricane Betsy in 1965.
As New Orleans started its day on September 10, 1965, it was again in the eye
of the storm; Hurricane Betsy, a Category 3 Hurricane. Winds gusted to 125 mph. A 10
foot storm surge was produced causing extreme flooding in New Orleans. The Industrial
Canal levee broke in two places and put over 300 blocks of the Ninth Ward, the area
known as “Below Industrial Canal”, under water. As Betsy bore down, there was a
levee breach near the bridge at Claiborne Ave. In the Ninth Ward, the lowest part of
below-sea-level in New Orleans, cars were still under water a week after the storm.
(Rogers, E. & Rogers, W. 1975).
During August 17 and 18, 1969, Hurricane Camille came ashore with winds of
215 — 220 mph. Hurricane Camille topped seawalls along the Mississippi Shore and
inundated more than 860,000 acres of land in Louisiana. The tidal surge was a United
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States Record (16 feet) and caused the Mississippi River to flow backwards to north of
Baton Rouge. Almost total destruction was seen from Venice to Buras. Water washed
over US Highway 90 to a depth of 10 feet.
The years between 1970 and 1990 saw little hurricane activity in the Atlantic
Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. There was an average of 1.5 major hurricanes per year
recorded, of which most never made landfall. (Halimeda Kilbourne, K. et. al., 2007).
In 1992, Hurricane Andrew , a Category 4 Hurricane, opened the eyes of the
Emergency Managers to the problems with evacuating southeast Louisiana. Over 1.2
million people were evacuated from Parishes in Southeast and South Central Louisiana.
Even though the storm was not a direct hit on New Orleans or even the southeast part
of Louisiana, officials say had the hurricane hit more populated areas the damage and
number of lives lost could have been worse. Instead, it came aground farther to the
west in less populated marshes where people do not live and as it moved farther inland,
it lost a lot of its strength. Winds were recorded in the 140mph range; however,
because of the large number that were evacuated the number of casualties was lower
than it could have been. Louisiana had at least 40 plus hours lead time on this
hurricane and was able to evacuate those that may have been in harms way.
(Applebome, 1992).
The Timeline
On August 23, 2005 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Public Advisory (#1)
for Tropical Depression 12 as it developed approximately 200 miles SE of Nassau, the
Bahamas. On August 24th, Tropical Depression 12 was named Tropical Storm Katrina.
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(NHC, Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory Number 4). On Thursday, August 25, in
discussion number 9, the NHC changed Katrina’s status from a Tropical Storm to a
Hurricane. In this same discussion, the NHC stated after a Florida landfall, Katrina will
move into the Gulf of Mexico with a potential second landfall between Mobile, Alabama
and Grand Isle, Louisiana. At approximately 6:30pm EDT, Katrina came aground in
Florida as a Category 1 Hurricane.
On the morning of Friday, August 26, Hurricane Katrina became a Category 2
Hurricane. In the afternoon, Governor Kathleen Blanco declared a State of Emergency
and activated the Louisiana National Guard. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour
followed suit. A 5pm NHC advisory placed landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane
approximately at the Mississippi and Alabama state lines. Six hours later, NHC Advisory
15 changed the landfall west to approximately the Louisiana and Mississippi state lines,
just east of New Orleans. The predicted landfall was now Monday, August 29, 2005.
2000 troops were put on alert when Governor Blanco declared a State of Emergency for
Louisiana and requested National Guard troop assistance. This Emergency Declaration
activated the emergency response and recovery program which consisted of supporting
the evacuation of the coastal areas, implementing the state special needs and
sheltering plan, and making preparations for providing emergency support services.
At 4am, Saturday, August 27, Hurricane Katrina became a Category 3 Hurricane.
During a National Weather Service (NWS) Teleconference at 7:30am, the probable path
of Katrina is expected to go through metropolitan New Orleans area. At 9:00am, Phase
I of the Louisiana Emergency Evacuation Plan (Evacuation Plan) was implemented;
citizens in coastal areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway (where there is not any
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levee protection) are to evacuate 50 hours before a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
NHC discussion and advisory #17 updated the Hurricane Watch area to SouthEast
Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. That afternoon,
Governor Blanco wrote President George W. Bush and requested a federal state of
emergency. She stated an effective response was beyond the capabilities of the state
and affected local governments and federal assistance was necessary to save lives,
protect property, public health, and safety. President Bush granted this request and
specifically stated “FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its
discretion.” Bush specifically named FEMA to head the disaster management and
recovery, and named William Lokey as the Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO). From
noon until 4:00pm, Phase II of the Evacuation Plan was implemented; areas south of
the Mississippi River with levee protection but vulnerable were evacuated. The last
phase of the Evacuation Plan was implemented at 4:00pm; Contraflow began.
Contraflow is where all lanes of certain highways are directed in one direction, out of the
warning area — this includes areas on the East Bank of the Mississippi River in the
New Orleans Metropolitan Area, which are vulnerable even with the levee system.
In an evening joint press conference on Saturday, August 27, Mayor Nagin with
Governor Blanco issued a State of Emergency for New Orleans and issued a voluntary
evacuation order. He advised the citizens that the Superdome would be open Sunday
morning as a refuge of last resort for those who could not get out of the city. (However,
prior to this press conference, the Superdome was to be used as a special needs
shelter). Algiers and the 9th Ward were urged to evacuate. Amtrak had volunteered its
services to New Orleans to use as a means of transporting evacuees. The City did not
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respond to Amtrak. The last train left the city of New Orleans empty around 8:30pm.
Max Mayfield, the NHC director, did something he had never done before and made
private phone calls to the Governors of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi and also to
Mayor Nagin of New Orleans to advise them of what was coming their way. He warned
them when Katrina made landfall she would most certainly be a Category 4 Hurricane,
with predictions of 20,000 deaths and water levels possible in the range of 30-feet in
populated areas. The August 27, 2005 10:00pm, NHC Hurricane Katrina Advisory
Number 25 began with “...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…”. This advisory
stated the storm surge could be 15 - 20 feet above tide, with some areas as high as 25
feet. Rainfall of 5” - 10” was predicted, with some areas to receive 15”. A hurricane
warning was issued from Morgan City, LA to the Alabama/Florida state line, including
New Orleans. Hurricane force winds were expected within 24 hours.
By 6:00am on Sunday, August 28, All flood gates were closed and all rail traffic
into and out of the city had been suspended. By 8:00am, Hurricane Katrina had
become a Category 5 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 160mph,
threatening catastrophic damage along the Gulf Coast. The Superdome was opened at
8:00am as one of eight special needs shelters. (By noon, it was a “refuge of last resort”
as one of ten shelters operating in the city). A 9:30am press conference with Mayor
Nagin and Governor Blanco issued the first ever mandatory evacuation of the city of
New Orleans. An urgent weather message issued at 10:11am CDT from the NWS New
Orleans, began “…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED… HURRICANE KATRINA…
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH…
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RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969”. This urgent
message continued:
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER.
AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND
WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES
SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS
SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL
CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK
EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE
DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE
HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
At noon, the Rural Transit Authority (RTA) sent buses to twelve locations in New
Orleans to transport people to the Superdome. 500 members of the LA National Guard
were used for security and food distribution.
At 4:13pm The National Weather Service New Orleans gave a stark warning:
“Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina continues to approach the Mississippi River
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Delta… Devastating Damage Expected”. The rest of the warning repeated what was
warned in the 10am warning. Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 24 (NHC), 4:00pm,
made it abundantly clear “some levees in the Greater New Orleans Area could be
overtopped.” By evening, there were over 25,000 residents registered at the
Superdome. Food and water were available for 15,000 for three days. At 5:00pm,
Contraflow in Louisiana was suspended. Department of Transportation (DOT) traffic
counters at Latoya Ave. recorded 36,586 vehicles since the initiation of Contraflow. 1.2
million people or 90% of the city of New Orleans escaped within a 24 hour time period.
The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport closed and left 450 passengers
and 30 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) personnel stranded.
At approximately 6:30am on Monday, August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made
landfall at Buras as a strong Category 4 Hurricane with sustained winds of 140 — 145
MPH. There were storm surges of 20 — 30 feet that overtopped the levees of the East
and West Banks of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Katrina sent water into
Plaquemines Parish moving buildings off their foundations or completely destroying
them. The NHC issued a Flash Flood Warning at 9:15am. There was catastrophic
flooding in New Orleans due in part to massive overtopping of levees in East Orleans
and St. Bernard Parish. The levees at Industrial Canal and 17th Street broke. The
London Ave. and Canal Ave. flood walls were breached. There was 10 — 15 feet of
water in Orleans Parish, 6 — 8 feet of water in the 9th Ward, and 3 — 8 feet of water
near Industrial Canal and Tennessee St. People were forced to move to attics and
rooftops. By mid-afternoon, Search and Rescue had begun. By the end of the day, the
Louisiana Department of Wildlife had rescued 1500 people, the National Guard
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helicopters had rescued 2296 and transported 1970 people, and the United States
Coast Guard had rescued 1200 people in Louisiana.
Evacuation Behavior
Thomas Drabek’s social science research on evacuation behavior in 1999 is reiterated
in his book The Human Side of Disaster (2013). He discusses the responses to
disaster and the different types of evacuation. The initial response to any warning is
disbelief. This disbelief can and will result in premature deaths. Denial is another type
of respnse. “Never believed it would happen to me/it won’t get here.” Typically those in
the warning areas do not believe what the warning messages say.
There are four main types of confirmations citizens seek to confirm warning
messages. First, a person will appeal to authority. To verify the warning information is
correct they will listen to the radio, watch TV, or go to multiple websites on the Internet.
Next, they will appeal to a peer. They will call a family member, a friend, or even go
outside and talk to their neighbor. Observational confirmation is where a citizen will
watch out the window to see if the danger is visible. Or are the neighbors packing up
and leaving? Finally, a person will receive latent confirmation through unintentional
actions. A person may receive a call from a friend or family member. This person may
ask if they too are leaving or asking if they are alright etc. (Drabek, 2013).
People will almost always reinterpret the warning message, especially one that is
vague and conflicting. This is “an active interpretation of information to make it fit into
an ongoing social situation.” (Drabek, p. 70, 2013). They are trying to reduce or
eliminate the threat potential to themselves. Finally, people feel invulnerable as if the
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message is meant for others and not them. Because of levees, dikes, and other
artificial safety infrastructure, people feel they are safe and the disaster cannot get to
them.
Gary T. Marx and Douglas McAdams (1994) using E. L. Quarentelli’s 1980
research, “evacuation behavior is likely to involve interaction and discussion among
families and associates as how best to proceed.” (p. 66). It is relevant to note that
families will leave as units. If all members of the family are not present when a decision
to evacuate is made, a family will wait until all are present and accounted for before
evacuating.
T. Drakes research continues with a number of different responses to warning
messages based on different social characteristics. Gender is the most significant and
consistent quality that influences evacuation decisions. Females are more likely to
believe a warning message. Children, primarily school-aged are scared and press the
parents to evacuate. Ethnic minorities are skeptical due to previous unfair treatment.
There may also be a language barrier. Elderly have learned to neutralize the warning
message as they have heard them so many times. Think: the boy that cried wolf. The
lack of precision in a warning message will have the elderly thinking “it hasn't happened
here before, it isn't going to happen now”. There are times, however, the elderly do not
even receive the message. Another group are the experienced ones, the ones that
have sat and rode out the storm before and survived unscathed. They will once again
not evacuate because they do not feel they are in harms way. Finally, economics.
Those that are poor will not want to evacuate because they are suspicious of authority.
Those that are wealthy will “know better”. These two extremes will simply be less
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responsive. “Social factors can be just as constraining as physical
dimensions.” (Drabek, p. 79, 2013). “We can’t move. People here can’t move.
Everything we worked for and our ancestors worked for is here. We want to pass it on
to our children.” (McQuaid & Schleifstein, 2002).
Families evacuate through one of four social routes. They evacuate by default;
they leave their homes and on returning, are turned away due to no re-entry. They
evacuate by invitation. A friend or family member that is not involved will invite them
over for dinner, or to visit, as a safe place should something actually happen. Men often
are the ones that create the compromise evacuation. They are tired of arguing with
children or family and to stop the arguing will compromise and evacuate. Finally, a
conscious and deliberate choice will be made to evacuate (as a family).
The Phases of Emergency Management
There are four phases of Emergency Management: mitigation preparedness, response,
and recovery. It should be noted, these phases often overlap each other and
sometimes one cannot tell when one begins and the other ends. For example, when a
tornado tears through a community, the first course of action is response, while this is
happening recovery is already beginning, and mitigation comes from lessons learned
while working on the recovery.
The mitigation phase encompasses activities that are necessary to reduce or
eliminate long-term risk to people or property. These also lessen the actual or potential
effects or consequences of an incident. Specific tasks can include but are not limited to
“understanding, recognizing, communicating, planning for, and addressing risks:
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building resilient systems, communities, and infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to
incidents; and identifying, analyzing, and planning for area threats and
hazards.” (FEMA, 2015).
Preparedness is developing a response plan and training first responders. It
identifies critical resources and develops agreements with responding agencies to
ensure these resources are available when a crisis or disaster happens. It is those
actions taken to organize and prepare for a disaster or crisis. This phase occurs before
a crisis or disaster occurs. It is about planning and equipping for the response.
(Kapucu & Ozerdem, 2013). The main purpose of this phase is to be able to handle
efficiently and effectively in a crisis or disaster situation. If the planning, training, and
exercising have been conducted before a crisis or disaster, a foundation has been
created to better prepare for the expected or unexpected.
“The response phase occurs when a disaster is imminent or soon after its onset.”
(Kapuco & Ozerden, 2013). Response includes such activities as evacuation,
sheltering, feeding, and providing other emergency aid and assistance. “Disaster
response objectives include protecting lives, limiting property loss, and overcoming the
disruptions that disasters cause.” (Sylves, 2015).
Finally, the recovery phase. This can be broken into short-term and long-term
recovery. None-the-less “recovery involves providing the immediate support during the
early post-disaster period necessary to return vital life-support systems to minimum
operation levels and continuing to provide support until the community returns to
normal.” (Sylves, 2015).
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Conclusion
“Environmental hazards and the disasters they can create are not simply ‘natural
events’, but social, cultural and political processes that test the capacity of society to
organize itself, limit destabilization, and move onto a state of recovery.” (Bavel & Curtis,
2016). Historical records, social science research, and resiliency are the keys to any
community and how prepared or not prepared they are for any type of crisis or disaster.
Each of these keys plays an important part and all work as a system, during and after
an event.
“Failure to implement social science knowledge will result in death.” (Drabek, p.
88, 2013). Look to the social science research and use it as a tool for disaster and crisis
planning and understanding communities and those people in general involved in
warning messages and evacuation. Through his social science research on evacuees
Thomas Drabek (2013) has given a formula for warning messages that include
information about the threat and advice on what to do. Warning messages must answer
four questions; 1. What is threatening?, 2. Who is threatened, what are the geographical
boundaries, 3. When is it coming?, and 4. What protection measures should be taken?
People have to be told what to do and why.
Historical records and research provide insight into the “long-term reconstruction
of the social, economic, and cultural impacts of hazards and shocks” on a community.
(Bavel & Curtis, 2016). Historical records and research provide information on the
socio-political structures, the economic organizations, informal institutions, that include
cultural values and norms, and associated networks. The history of a community, not
just the crisis and disasters, would allow one to see where there are social inequalities
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and how those came to be. It would allow those doing the planning to understand why
people live where they live. Understanding the disasters and crisis of the historical past
and how the community related or responded would allow the planners to better
understand why those vulnerable continue to do the same thing over and over with
every disaster or crisis. Understanding the vast richness of information that history can
provide could help planners understand why one community is resilient while another is
not.
Resiliency is the ability of a community to bounce back after a crisis or disaster.
This bouncing back is not just limited to infrastructure and government, but the
community as a whole. Its social structures, its after school activities, the 4th of July
parade. However, without looking to the past and the crisis and disasters that have
come before, how can a community properly prepare for what the future holds? A
community needs also to look at how it has worked after each prior crisis or disaster.
What groups have come together? What communities have been hit the hardest, not
just structurally but socially. When preparing to be resilient a community must also look
at the historical social research. What research has been previously done concerning
our types of crisis or disaster and our social systems? How can this be applied in our
preparedness? What steps can we put into place now, so when it does happen, our
community is resilient and comes back stronger than before?
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Appendix
Appendix 1
Hurricane Katrina Graphical Route
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Appendix 2
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
http://arrajatabla.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/saffir-simpson_hurrican_scale.gif
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/tropical-cyclone-tracks
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