The Ethnic Minorities of Estonia

The Ethnic Minorities of Estonia: Changing Size, Location, and Composition Tiit Tammaru and Hill Kulu1 Abstract: Two European geographers survey the change in numbers, location, and composition of Estonia’s non-titular population utilizing census returns for the period 1934–2000. Much attention is devoted to an investigation of return migration of non-Estonians to other FSU republics in the 1990s. Also covered are changes in the spatial distribution of Estonia’s minorities and the dynamics of age structure as a result of its natural evolution, the sharp decline in fertility, and emigration of younger cohorts. Additionally, the authors also investigate trends in employment affecting the country’s principal ethnic minorities. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J10, J11, R23. 8 figures, 3 tables, 56 references. INTRODUCTION W orld War II had a major impact on the number and composition of Estonia’s population. To begin with, the country lost most if not all of its “historical” minorities during the war years, and sustained an influx of immigrants from the Slavic republics of the Soviet Union (and later other republics as well) after 1945. By 1991, when Estonia regained its independence, the share of non-Estonians increased to nearly 40 percent of the total population. This rapid growth prompted many social scientists and researchers2 to study the country’s minorities and assess the factors precipitating the influx. Nevertheless, little is known about the fluctuations in the numbers and composition of the non-titular population, largely due to uncertainties regarding out-migration during the 1990s (Katus, 1999, p. 134). This paper attempts to examine some of the most basic changes in that population since Estonia’s indepence by utilizing the recent census published by the Estonian Statistical Office (ESO) in 2001. Our paper comprises three major parts. In the sections that follow, we analyze the nonEstonian minority during the Soviet period and the change in its numbers during the 1990s. In the third and fourth sections, we trace the origins of immigrants and their settlement pattern in Estonia. Finally, we discuss the minority’s age structure, educational levels, and employment characteristics. Data for this study come mainly from the last pre-war (ESO, 1937) and postwar censuses (ESO, 1960, 1972, 1980, 1997, 2001). Statistics detailing changes in the composition of non-Estonians are derived from the 1989 and 2000 censuses (Census Database, 1989; ESO 1Institute of Geography, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, Tartu 51014, Estonia. Email: ttammaru@ut.ee and hill@math.ut.ee, respectively. In this paper, Estonia’s ethnic minorities are also collectively referred to as nonEstonians or the country’s non-titular residents. 2For example, Vaikmäe-Koit (1995), Geistlinger and Kirch (1995), Janikson et al. (1997), Kirch (1997), Järve (1997), Heidmets (1998), Pettai and Proos (1999), Proos and Pettai (1999), Tammaru (1999), Laius et al. (2000). 105 Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2003, 44, No. 2, pp. 105-120. Copyright © 2003 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved. 106 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS Database 2002), whereas components of the change in 1989–2000 are analyzed on the basis of annually registered births and deaths during the intercensal period (ibid., 2002). As the quality of registered migration data for the 1990s is rather questionable (Katus, 1999, p. 134), net migration is calculated here as the difference between population change and natural increase for the period 1989–2000 (i.e., by the residual method). ESTONIA’S MINORITY POPULATION IN PERSPECTIVE World War II and the years of Soviet and German occupation prompted a drastic change in the ethnic composition of Estonia. In 1934, the year of the last pre-war census, the number of non-Estonians was as low as 134,000, accounting for ca. 12 percent of the country’s total population. At the time, the non-Estonian minority comprised five major ethnic groups, namely Russians, Germans, Swedes, Jews, and Latvians (Tiit, 1993; Katus et. al, 1997; Sakkeus, 1999). First, Estonia lost its German minority in 1939, when ethnic Germans returned to their historical homeland. Most Estonian Jews fled ahead of the advancing Germany army in September 1941, to non-occupied regions of the former Soviet Union (FSU), but nearly all who remained were killed by the Nazis.3 No less problematic was the survival of Estonian Swedes, who managed to escape to Sweden. Estonia’s Russians, the country’s largest ethnic minority group in 1934 (92,656 or 8.2 percent of the total population), did not leave, but were largely transferred from Estonian to Soviet jurisdiction in 1945 as a result of a border change. 4 The Latvian minority also was displaced during the war years, some deported to Soviet or German labor camps and others escaping. As a result of these changes, Estonia lost nearly all of its former minorities, with the number of non-Estonians dropping to 23,000 in the immediate aftermath of World War II. Only a small Russian community remained, congregating mainly along the western shore of Lake Peipus and its major towns (see Berg and Kulu, 1996). After the war, immigration began to replace deportation, extermination, escape, or evacuation, becoming the decisive factor that shaped Estonia’s population. The principal immigration flows occurred immediately after 1945 (Fig. 1), when population flows were managed by Soviet authorities (Katus and Sakkeus, 1993, p. 4; Tepp, 1994, pp., 12-13). The newcomers were needed for rebuilding of destroyed industrial plants, housing, and infrastructure (Rybakovskiy, 1987, p. 53; Kala, 1992, p. 513) as well as for augmenting the ranks of those perceived to be loyal to the Soviet Union in tandem with the ongoing Russification of the Baltics (Cole and Filatotchev, 1992, p. 433; Marksoo, 1996, p. 3). The political and ideological agenda for immigration brought to Estonia a wave of Communist Party members and Soviet military personnel (Tiit, 1993, p. 1853). People also were recruited for industry and construction, which soon became the major magnets attracting immigration to Estonia (Kala, 1992, pp. 513-514). Immigrants were especially needed in these two expanding sectors because of the economy due to a labor shortage, linked in part to the low natural 3Relying on American and Israeli estimates, Encyclopedia Judaica (1972, p. 918) concluded that of the ca. 5,000 Jews residing in Estonia in 1939, less than 1,000 remained during the German invasion. Only a few in that group managed to survive the war year, and only ca. 400–500 returned to Estonia from exile in 1945. Also, roughly 20,000 Jews, predominantly from Lithuania, were shipped by the Germans and their collaborators to extermination camps not far from Tallinn in Harju County (Klooga, Lagedi, Kalevi Liiva), where most perished during the period from August 1943 to September 1944 (Dworzecki, 1970; Kruk, 2002, pp. 659-705). 4Approximately 37,000 Estonian Russians became citizens of the RSFSR due to the transfer to Soviet jurisdiction (in 1945) of the Petserimaa area of southeastern Estonia and Ivangorod (Jaanilinn), a sister city of Narva (see Tiit, 1993, p. 1674.) TAMMARU AND KULU 107 Fig. 1. Immigration and emigration in Estonia per 1,000 inhabitants, 1946–1990. Calculated by the authors based on Sakkeus (1991). population increase in the country. Among other reasons, Estonia’s strategic role in supplying food to nearby areas (such as St. Petersburg) led to a concentration of gainfully employed Estonians in the agricultural sector (Marksoo, 1996, p. 3), whereas immigrants were mainly engaged in industry (Tammaru, 2001a, p. 599). A substantial immigration stream to Estonia persisted throughout the entire postwar period, even though its intensity gradually decreased over time. A secondary peak is apparent in the late 1960s and early 1970s, during the heyday of socialist industrialization (see Fig. 1), but generally the downward trend continued until the end of the Soviet period, when the labor shortage in European Russia became increasingly acute. Had Soviet rule continued, this factor might have led to a gradual end of immigration to Estonia (Sakkeus, 1999, p. 320).5 In tandem with the decrease in intensity, changes also had occurred in the mechanism of immigration. State-organized migration flows were increasingly replaced by immigration sponsored by industrial enterprises in need of labor, and later by informal migration motivated by family or other personal considerations (Kulu, 2001a, p. 2387). Return migration from Estonia followed the pattern of immigration, as the number of immigrants who entered Estonia during the postwar period and remain there today is modest—all in all, only one in five. The high migration turnover may have been the result of a large share of military personnel among the migrants, the relatively modest share of familyoriented migrants, and the low level of migrant adaptation (Sakkeus, 2000, p. 271). As a result of the stable and positive (albeit decreasing) net migration during the 50 years of Soviet rule, the non-Estonian share of the total population has increased rather considerably, rising from 23,000 in 1945 (3 percent of Estonia’s total) to 304,000 (25 percent of the total) in 1959 when the first postwar census was held (see Fig 2). By the time of the last Soviet census in 1989, the country’s non-titular population rose to 602,000 inhabitants (or 39 percent of Estonia’s total). In contrast with such dramatic growth of the minority population during 1945–1989, the ethnic Estonian population increased very modestly—from 5 It is of note that in all other Soviet republics (except for the three Baltic republics) net migration flows reversed from positive to negative during the 1980s (Zayonchkovskaya, 1992). 108 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS Fig. 2. Percent of non-Estonians in total population, 1934–2000. Compiled by authors from various pages in Katus (1990) and ESO (1937, 1995, 2001). Table 1. The Population of Estonia, 1934–2000 Nationality 1934 Estonians Minorities Russians Ukrainians Belorussians Germans Swedes Finns Jews Latvians Others Total 992, 520 133, 893 92,656 2 0 16,346 7,641 1,088 5,434 4,434 6,291 1,126,413 1945 1959 1970 1979 1989 2000 831,000 892,653 925,157 947,812 963,281 930,219 23,000 304,138 430,922 516,664 602,381 439,833 n.a. 240,227 334,620 408,778 474,834 351,178 n.a. 15,769 28,086 36,044 48,271 29,012 n.a. 10,930 18,732 23,461 27,711 17,241 n.a. 7,850 7,850 3,944 3,466 1,870 n.a. n.a. 435 254 297 300 n.a. 16,699 18,537 17,753 16,622 11,837 n.a. 5,433 5,282 4,954 4,613 2,145 n.a. 2,888 3,286 3,963 3,135 2,330 n.a. 11,522 14,094 17,513 23,432 23,920 854,000 1,196,791 1,356,079 1,464,476 1,565,700 1,370,052 Source: Compiled by the authors from various pages in Katus, 1990; ESO, 1937, 1995, 2001. 831,000 to 963,000 (see Table 1); that increase was due to both natural increase as well as postwar immigration of Russian-born ethnic Estonians (Kulu, 1998). As soon as Estonia regained its independence in 1991, its net migration balance shifted from positive to negative; while immigration during the 1990s was quite modest (Kulu and Tammaru, 2000; ESO Database 2002), emigration increased dramatically. This pattern, again, was related mainly to the non-Estonian population (Table 2). The return migration of Russians and other non-Estonians to their former homelands reduced the country’s population by 145,000 inhabitants. Net migration of Estonians also was negative in the 1990s, albeit modest (ca. 10,000) when compared to that of non-Estonians; it was related to emigration for study and employment in Western Europe, especially to Finland, Sweden, and Germany. The emigration of Ingrian Finns and their descendants with families also contributed to this balance (Kulu, 2001b). All told, Estonia lost 155,000 inhabitants during the 1989–2000 TAMMARU AND KULU 109 Table 2. Population Change, 1989–2000 Component Number, 1989 Number, 2000 Change, 1989-2000 Natural increase Net migration (residual) Total population 1,565,662 1,370,052 -195,610 -40,406 -155,204 Estonians 963,281 930,219 -33,062 -22,495 -10,567 Non-Estonians 602,381 439,833 -162,548 -17,911 -144,637 Source: Compiled by the authors from Census Database 1989 and ESO Database 2002. intercensal period—almost twice as many as the ca. 85,000 reflected in statistics on annual migration (see Tammaru, 2001a).6 Estonia’s total population decreased by 13 percent in the 1990s, mainly due to nonEstonian emigration, while the number of non-Estonians decreased by 27 percent and that of Estonians by 3 percent. Accordingly, the number of Estonians remained nearly stable (just as during the Soviet period) and almost all losses were related to the non-titular population (Table 2). Three aspects of this change are significant in the context of ethnic integration. First, the share of non-Estonians in the country’s total fell from 39 percent in 1989 to 32 percent in 2000. Second, the share of non-Estonians who arrived during the last two decades of the Soviet period increased;7 these were people who entered Estonia after organized migration became less significant, and individual plans and perspectives became much more important. Third, the share of non-Estonians born in Estonia increased from 39 percent in 1989 to 48 percent in 2000. All of these changes provide a positive background for the process of ethnic integration. The increase in the number of Estonian-born minorities is considered especially important (Katus, 1996), because second-generation immigrants have considerably stronger ties with Estonia. In addition, many first-generation migrants, now middle-aged men and women, have opted to help integrate their children with Estonian society rather than tie them to their Soviet past (Vihalemm, 1997, p. 210). Despite the significant decline in the number of non-Estonians during the 1990s, their emigration rate nonethless was lower than predicted by some observers after the collapse of the USSR.8 The peak of emigration occurred in 1992–1993 and has almost stopped at present. Moreover, some analysts are predicting increases in immigration due to differences in economic development between Estonia and Russia, as well as because the country’s non-Estonian 6The figure of 155,000 was obtained by subtracting the natural increase (births minus deaths) from the population change between 1989–2000 (i.e., by the residual method). However, net migration calculated by that method incorporates the possible undercounting of population in Estonia’s 2000 census, estimated at between 40,000 (Tamm, 2001) and 60,000 people (Katus, 2000). Our analyses indicate that if there was an undercount, it involved only the non-titular population, as the estimates of change in the number of Estonians between 1989 and 2000 by the residual method dovetails with the actually recorded vital statistics during the intercensal period. If the estimate of 60,000 as the census undercount holds true, then registered migration statistics of non-Estonians could hold true as well (85,000 net decrease). However, the actual situation is more complicated. More specifically, 100,000–150,000 military officers and their family members were never recorded in population statistics during the Soviet period, but were included (for the most part) in the registered emigration statistics in the 1990s (see Sakkeus, 1999, p. 321). Consequently, even if the maximum estimate of the census undercount holds true, official emigration statistics also undercounted outflows, and the likely net emigration is close to the figure calculated by use of the residual method. 7Almost half of the non-titular population in 2000 had arrived after 1970 (ESO Database 2002). 8Cole and Filatotchev (1992, p. 442) estimated that one-half of the non-native population would leave the three Baltic countries, but the actual decline was only about half of this predicted magnitude in Estonia. 110 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS residents have many close relatives in Russia (or elsewhere in FSU)—roughly 1.2–1.5 million, or as much as Estonia’s total population of 1.4 million (Katus, 1996, pp. 20-22). THE ORIGIN AND ETHNICITY OF IMMIGRANTS The vast majority of immigrants (about 97 percent) who entered Estonia during the Soviet period came from the other constituent republics of the FSU (Sakkeus, 1991, p. 8). However, both the geographic and ethnic background of immigrants has changed over time. Those born in areas close to Estonia, mainly in Russia’s Northwest Economic Region, were the most common among the immigrants in the 1940s. As a result of the rapid natural population growth, the emigration potential in this area of the Soviet Union after WWII was fairly high (Katus 1990, pp. 57-58). Later, when this area’s immigration potential was exhausted, the share of immigrants from more distant areas of the RSFSR and from the non-Russian republics (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and the republics of the Transcaucasus and Central Asia) began to increase (see also Kulu, 2001a; Sakkeus, 1999). Despite the widening of the immigration hinterland, the Russians continued to be Estonia’s most populous ethnic minority throughout the Soviet period. They accounted for nearly 80 percent of all non-Estonians in the first postwar census in 1959, and for about the same percentage in 1989. Moreover, ethnic Russians constituted 20 percent of all immigrants from republics other than the RSFSR at the time of the 1989 census (ESO, 1997, pp. 18-26). Part of the explanation may lie in the fact that the Russians, having experienced the demographic transition earlier than most other Soviet people, were more mobile and thus more likely to respond to employment opportunities through migration regardless of their place of residence. An economic/ideological explanation also has been proposed, specifically that immigration was much more of a state-organized process than internal migration in Estonia (Tonsiver, 1975, pp. 74-77) and consequently that it may have represented a state policy designed to include Russians in the immigration streams emanating from non-Russian Soviet republics as well. Finally, simply the geographic proximity of northwestern Russia to Estonia cannot be discounted as a factor contributing to the predominance of Russians in the nonEstonian population, even considering the state-organized nature of migration. Although Russians continued to play an important role in immigration to Estonia until the end of the Soviet period, the number of people belonging to other ethnic groups increased as well. In addition to Russians, the Ukrainians and Belorussians became the largest minority groups in Estonia (see Table 1), replacing Germans, Swedes, and later Jews9 of the pre-Soviet time (Katus et al, 1997, p. 25). It is also noteworthy that the majority of Ukrainians and Belorussians in Estonia speak and consider Russian as their mother tongue (Issakov and Tõnurist, 1999a, p. 482; 1999b, p. 510), and those who speak Ukrainian or Belorussian (their mother tongues) speak Russian fluently as well. The same generalization also applies to most of the other new ethnic minorities. Therefore, the Russian language is the most important unifying factor among postwar immigrants and their descendants in Estonia. Interestingly, the rapid growth of Ukrainians and Belorussians during the Soviet period gave way to their massive return to Ukraine and Belarus during the post-Soviet period; both groups declined by about 40 percent during the 1990s. This was closer to the rate of return migration projected for non-Russian populations in the Baltic states in the beginning of the 9Many Jews born in the RSFSR and other non-Baltic republics of the Soviet Union gravitated to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in the aftermath of World War II. Their total number in Estonia, however, declined from a peak in the mid-1960s due to migration to the West. TAMMARU AND KULU 111 Fig. 3. Share of non-Estonians in rural and urban population, 1934–2000. Compiled by the authors from Estonian Statistical Office (ESO, 1937, 1960, 1972, 1980, 2001). 1990s and considerably more than the 26 percent decrease of the Russian population, as well as the 27 percent decrease of the total non-Estonian community. However, these differential rates of emigration have not appreciably increased the share of Russians as the main nonEstonian minority, as in the year 2002 Russians comprised 80 percent of all non-Estonians living in Estonia, only slightly more than at the end of the Soviet period. LOCATION OF ETHNIC MINORITIES Although the immigration hinterland of Estonia widened over time, the location of ethnic minorities within the country remained highly concentrated throughout the Soviet period (rather typical of immigrant populations). As immigration was related to industrialization, non-Estonians (as many as 90 percent) settled mainly in urban areas, forming almost half of the urban population at the end of the Soviet period, as compared to ca. 13 percent of the population in rural areas (Fig. 3). The spatial concentration of immigrants is high when measured at the level of Estonia’s 15 counties. More specifically, up to 80 percent of non-Estonians reside in only two counties: one-half live in Harju and another third in Ida-Viru County, where they constitute 41 percent and 79 percent of the population, respectively (see Figs. 4 and 5). This reflects the fact that the major industrial enterprises were located mainly in the towns of Ida-Viru County in northeastern Estonia10 and the capital city of Tallinn (in Harju County). In comparing these two areas, northeastern Estonia served not only as a terminus of interrepublican migration streams, but also as a gateway to subsequent migration to Tallinn (Marksoo, 1990, p. 61; 1996, p. 5). The construction sector in the capital experienced the highest labor turnover and consequently contributed more than other sectors to the reproduction of migration flows (Kala, 1992, p. 513). The share of immigrants moving directly to Tallinn also increased during the Soviet period (Kulu, 2001a, p. 2389). The total number of non-Estonians living in Ida-Viru County was ca. 180,000 people in 1989, or about 82 percent of the total population (Table 3). This f igure dropped to ca. 10 Urban centers include Narva (a diversified industrial center and the third largest city in Estonia with a year 2000 population of 68,700) and Sillamäe (2000 population of 17,200), where the share of Estonians is less than 5 percent of the total population, and the oil-shale-mining center of Kohtla-Järve (the fourth-largest city in Estonia, with 59,800 residents), where the share of Estonians is below 20 percent of the total. 112 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS Fig. 4. Counties and major urban centers of Estonia. Approximate scale 1:3,000,000. Reprinted from Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, Vol. 42, No. 7, p. 505 (Tammaru, 2001). Fig. 5. Share of non-Estonians in Estonia’s urban and rural populations in the year 2000. Compiled by the authors from ESO Database 2002. 144,000 by 2000, mainly due to emigration. The percentage decline (20 percent) was less than that for the entire non-Estonian population (27 percent). Consequently, the share of non-Estonians living in northeastern Estonia increased from 30 percent in 1989 to 33 percent in 2000, a measure of their increased spatial concentration in the country. TAMMARU AND KULU 113 Table 3. Non-Estonian Residents by County, 1989 and 2000 1989 County Total population Harju Hiiu Ida-Viru Jõgeva Järva Lääne Lääne-Viru Põlva Pärnu Rapla Saare Tartu Valga Viljandi Võru 605,415 11,097 221,111 42,505 43,807 33,389 79,690 36,238 99,720 39,539 39,467 161,813 41,473 65,222 45,176 2000 NonPercent of Estonians non-Estonians 300,643 476 180,275 5,267 3,936 7,083 19,502 2,654 17,930 3,883 2,618 38,656 9,784 6,038 3,636 49.7 4.3 81.5 12.4 9.0 21.2 24.5 7.3 18.0 9.8 6.6 23.9 23.6 9.3 8.0 Total population 525,682 10,440 179,702 38,297 38,781 28,644 67,801 32,695 91,212 37,593 35,951 149,602 35,796 57,974 39,882 NonPercent of Estonians non-Estonians 218,832 195 143,785 3,963 2,624 3,633 10,653 1,829 11,963 2,719 683 26,648 6,271 3,649 2,386 41.6 1.9 80.0 10.3 6.8 12.7 15.7 5.6 13.1 7.2 1.9 17.8 17.5 6.3 6.0 Source: Compiled from Census Database 1989 and ESO Database 2002. Although Ida-Viru County is the only one in which the minorities are numerically dominant, the largest community of non-Estonians in terms of absolute population is found in Harju County, where 50 percent of all ethnic minorities lived at the time of the 2000 census. The capital city Tallinn alone is home to 185,000, or 42 percent of all non-Estonians. Furthermore, the share of non-Estonians living in Tallinn has increased in comparison with 1989, when ca. 38 percent of non-Estonians lived in Tallinn. This again evidences the increasing spatial concentration Estonia’s ethnic minorities over time. Such convergence of non-Estonians in these two counties does not dovetail with the concept of ethnic integration, but its causes deserve further probing. Does increasing concentration of the minority population reflect the geographically selective nature of emigration from Estonia and/or some specific features of internal migration of the ethnic minorities? AGE, EDUCATION, AND OCCUPATION OF NON-ESTONIANS We now proceed to outline the distribution of non-Estonians by age, education, and employment at the end of the Soviet era and note the changes that have occurred during the post-Soviet period. We also compare trends in the non-Estonian community with those prevailing among Estonians. The age structure of non-Estonians largely reflects the development of postwar immigration streams. In 1989, the most numerous cohort consisted of people in the age group of 25–39, together with their children (Fig. 6). The large concentration of population in the younger working ages is the result of two processes. First, these are the children of people who arrived in Estonia during the first two postwar decades. Second, people of this cohort were most commonly found among immigrants in the 1970s and 1980s (Sakkeus, 1991, p. 26). During the last decade, the major trend characterizing the non-Estonian community has been aging, as evidenced by the increasing share of the population in the older 114 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS Fig. 6. Percentage of non-Estonians by age groups, 1989 and 2000. Compiled from Census Database 1989 and ESO Database 2002. working groups and the elderly, and the decreasing proportion of younger people, especially children. This is due to the natural evolution of the age structure of Estonia’s minorities, the sharp decline in fertility during the 1990s, and possibly also emigration of younger people. Our comparison of the age structure of minorities to that of titular Estonians is also revealing. In 1989, the non-Estonian community was clearly younger than the Estonian. The share of non-Estonians was relatively large among people in the 25 to 39 age bracket, but small among people over 65 years of age. However, these differences have decreased during the last decade. Moreover, the non-Estonian minority is aging even more rapidly than the titular majority. As noted earlier, this trend has been due to the natural evolution of their age structure, as well as emigration of younger people and their children to Russia. So the share of non-Estonians in the age cohorts younger than 40 has significantly decreased during the last decade, while the decline has been small among middle-aged and older people. Given these trends, our projections show that the relative size of the non-Estonian community in the near future, may stabilize at ca. 30 percent of the country’s total population. In 1989, 13 percent of non-Estonians had attained a higher education, 48 percent had a secondary, and 39 percent had a primary or basic education. The corresponding figures in 2000 were 14 percent, 55, and 28 percent (Census Database 1989; ESO Database 2002).11 Thus, the share of non-Estonians with a secondary education increased, while the proportion of minorities with a primary and basic education actually decreased. This trend can be attributed to the overall rise of the level of education that accompanies aging (i.e., with new cohorts arriving into adulthood). In the case of Estonians, the increasing levels of education have been even more striking. In 1989, 12 percent of Estonians had a higher education, 38 percent a secondary, and 50 percent a primary or basic education, while the corresponding figures in 2000 were 14 percent, 50, and 35 percent. We believe that the smaller relative improvement in the case of non-Estonians appears to be due to changes such as emigration of younger working-age people during the last decade. Our investigation indicates that there is little difference between Estonians and the country’s minorities in levels of educational achievement among the different age groups. Decreasing economic activity and increasing unemployment rates have characterized the employment trends of the country’s population (both Estonian and non-Estonian) during the 11The data were missing for 3 percent. TAMMARU AND KULU 115 Fig. 7. Non-Estonians by employment sector, 1989 and 2000. Categories are based on the ILO’s International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities. Compiled by the authors from Census Database 1989 and ESO Database 2002. last decade (Puur, 1997), even though the changes have been more dramatic and less favorable to non-Estonians. In 1989, 77 percent of non-Estonians (ages 15 to 69) were active and unemployment was virtually non-existent. Among Estonians the share of the economically active population was 70 percent. By 2000, the active population among non-Estonians had decreased to 64 percent and unemployment rose to 19 percent. The corresponding figures for Estonians were 64 and 12 percent. The changes in sectoral composition of employment among Estonians and nonEstonians also are remarkable. In 1989, more than two-fifths of the country’s minorities were employed in manufacturing (Fig. 7), while the remainder appears to have been distributed more or less equally among the other sectors. The sectoral composition of non-Estonians reflected the fact that postwar immigration to Estonia was largely driven by industrialization. However, significant changes have taken place over the last decade. The share of nonEstonians employed in manufacturing, agriculture, and public administration has decreased, while their employment in trade, real estate, and business activities has risen rather significantly. The increasing minority numbers in the transport and communication category also should be noted. The reasons for these shifts are twofold. First, structural changes in the Estonian economy during the transition are reflected in the shift from agriculture- and industry-based activities toward service-oriented economies. Second, the state-building process following Estonia’s independence favored the recruitment of Estonians for positions in public service. Comparing the sectoral composition of non-Estonians to that of Estonians, we note that in 1989 the country’ minorities were clearly dominant in electricity, gas and water supply, public administration, manufacturing, and transport and communication, whereas their share was relatively low in trade, education, real estate and business activities, as well as in agriculture and forestry. The results support the fact that not only the industrial labor force but also the administrative elite came mostly from other areas of the USSR (Parming, 1978, p. 38). After restoration of Estonia’s independence, however, the share of non-Estonians dropped from 40 to 34 percent of the labor force, with the decline being much larger in public 116 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS Fig. 8. Percentage of total non-Estonian labor force engaged in each occupational category. Compiled by authors from Census Database 1989 and ESO Database 2002. administration and financial intermediation. The decreasing number of non-Estonians in public administration has been attributed both to the skills required in the new societal environment (good command of Estonian) and to their social exclusion through restrictive naturalization implemented in Estonia after restoration of its independence (Aasland and Fløtten, 2001). More specifically, citizenship was automatically granted only to descendants of prewar citizens, while post-war immigrants had to apply for naturalization. An analysis of change in occupational profiles further deepens our understanding of the challenges confronting the non-titular community in the Estonian labor market during transition. We note, for example, that the percentage of all minorities employed as skilled workers decreased significantly between 1989 and 2000, whereas the proportion of non-Estonians in unskilled occupations, as well as in clerical and managerial positions (including business owners) has increased (Fig. 8). Thus, some non-Estonians have successfully adapted to the new market economy and to the rapidly developing service-oriented sectors, while the less successful have been relegated to the bottom of the occupational hierarchy. When the perspective shifts to an analysis of non-Estonian employment in various sectors of the economy, it is evident that the decrease is more pronounced among service workers and clerical occupations. In contrast, there was a relative increase in the share of minority employment in unskilled occupations. The results indicate that Estonians have been more successful in securing white-collar employment during the transition, while the country’s minorities increasingly earned a living as blue-collar workers (Census Database 1989; ESO Database 2000). We believe that the lack of Estonian language skills among non-Estonians is the principal factor underlying this largely market-driven development in the services-based economy in the year 2003. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION Estonia had five major ethnic minorities prior to World War II, but only the Russian minority re-emerged immediately after the war, even though the numbers of other non-titular TAMMARU AND KULU 117 residents began to grow in the decades that followed. After World War II, the number of non-Estonians increased dramatically, from 23,000 people in 1945 to 602,000 in 1989. In addition to Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians became the second- and third-ranking minority groups. Still, Russians comprised nearly 80 percent of all ethnic minorities in 1989, and the Russian language was the most common mother tongue among non-Estonians. Net external migration reversed in Estonia during the 1990s, and emigration (mainly of nonEstonians), prompted the country’s total population to decrease between 1989 and 2000. Because the non-Estonian community declined by ca. 27 percent, while the Estonians fell by only 3 percent, almost all losses were related to minorities, and their total number dropped to 440,000 in 2000. Not only did the number of non-titular residents of Estonia decrease significantly in the 1990s, but also three other visible changes significantly affected the process of ethnic integration. First, Estonians do not perceive the high share of non-titular residents as a threat to the nation state in the year 2003 as they did in the first few years of independence. Second, the share of people who moved to Estonia during the late Soviet period (when personal initiative rather than centrally planned migration was dominant) was significantly higher than in the past. Thus, one could expect that the newly arrived minorities had a greater incentive to integrate than those who came to Estonia due to organized migration. Third, the share of ethnic minorities born in Estonia increased from 39 percent in 1989 to 48 in 2000. This is fairly significant, as there are many signs of generational dimensions of ethnic integration, especially with regard to the command of the Estonian language by the country’s non-titular residents. Changes in the location of non-Estonians were less pronounced than changes in their number and share in the total population. However, the most important process in the 1990s was their concentration in Tallinn and northeastern Estonia at the expense of all other areas of the country. Interpreting this from a perspective of ethnic integration, we view Tallinn as a place with the most pronounced obstacles to immigration and the highest potential for integration. Non-Estonians and Estonians are almost in balance here, and contacts between the two communities are more intense than elsewhere. In contrast, non-Estonians, who constitute a large majority in northeastern Estonia, have little or no incentive to learn Estonian. And their contact with the society’s mainstream remains modest as well. Elsewhere in Estonia, where the share of non-titular residents is relatively low, both integration and assimilation may occur more readily. Finally, significant modifications have occurred in the demographic and social structure of the country’s minorities. The natural evolution of the age structure of Estonia’s non-titular residents, the sharp decline in fertility in the 1990s, and the emigration of younger people have been accompanied by a rapid aging of that population. Since welfare benefits of retired people are relatively low in Estonia’s major towns, their inadequacy could lead to convergence of ethnic integration and aging. This appears to be the case in light of ongoing reform of Estonia’s retirement system, which shifts more responsibility onto the retirees themselves. Thus, personal savings become increasingly important when pensions are meager. Non-Estonians clearly have smaller savings, partly due to their relatively inferior earnings in post-Soviet Estonia’s public sector. This state of affairs could be explained by arguing that ethnic exclusion is now under way in Estonia (Aaslund and Fløtten, 2001; cf. Kaiser, 1995). 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