Regulation and growth

Regulation and Growth Simeon Djankov, Caralee McLiesh, Rita Ramalho The World Bank March 17, 2006 Abstract Using objective measures of business regulations in 135 countries, we establish that countries with better regulations grow faster. Improving from the worst quartile of business regulations to the best implies a 2.3 percentage point increase in annual growth. Keywords: Economic Growth, Business Regulations. JEL Codes: O12, O17, O50, P48 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 40722 Corresponding author: Rita Ramalho. The World Bank 2121 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC 20433. Tel:1-202-458-4139. Fax: 1-202-473-5758 Email: rramalho@worldbank.org 1 1 Introduction Why some countries grow faster than others is one of the most important questions in economics. Solving this puzzle has the obvious appeal of improving the living standards for a signi…cant proportion of the world population. We go further towards answering this question by studying a major determinant of growth: regulations governing business activity. Hall and Jones (1999) and Acemoglu et al (2001), among others1 , show that institutions are a major determinant of wealth and long-term growth. Countries that had better political and economic institutions in the past are richer today. We add to the literature on institutions and growth by introducing a new measure of institutional quality. The analysis focuses on a particular type of institution: business regulations. We use a new country-level data set to establish the relationship between the burden of business regulations and growth. 2 Data We use a new database of business regulations created by the World Bank: the Doing Business database available at www.doingbusiness.org. The indicators measure how regulations help or hinder business performance in 135 countries and in seven regulatory areas: starting a business, hiring and …ring workers, registering property, getting bank credit, protecting equity investors, enforcing contracts in the courts, and closing a business. The data are based on studies of laws and regulations and surveys of local lawyers, providing a more precise and objective measure of the business environment than other available perceptions-based measures of institutions. We develop an aggregate index of business regulations by taking the simple average of country rankings (from 1 to 135) in each of the seven topics in the database. We then normalize this index to vary between zero and one. The ranking for each topic is the simple average of rankings for each of the component indicators (Table 1). For example the “starting a business” ranking is the simple average of country rankings on the procedures, time, cost and minimum capital requirements to register a business. Higher values indicate more business-friendly regulations. New Zealand, the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Australia and Norway score highest. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso, Chad, Laos, Cambodia and Angola score lowest. Brazil, Egypt, and India are also in the lowest quartile. Data on average annual growth of GDP per capita between 1993 to 2002 come from the World 1 For instance, North (1981), Djankov et al. (2003), Rodrik (1999). 2 Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI). We use the WDI because it covers a larger set of countries than the Penn World Tables used by Hall and Jones (1999) and Sala-i-Martin et al (2004). All other control variables are also from the WDI, with the exception of Civil Con‡ict. This binary variable equals 1 if there was any civil con‡ict2 in the period 1993 to 2002, according to the data in Doyle and Sambanis (2000). 3 Results We …rst establish that business regulations are an important determinant of growth, then quantify this result and compare it with other determinants of growth. Following Barro (1991), we test the relation between business regulations and growth using the model below: G row th = + bu sin ess_regulations + Ln(GDP pc93) + X + "; where X is a set of control variables3 and Growth is the annual average GDP per capita growth rate between 1993 and 2002 in percentage. The results are presented in Table 2A. The business regulations index and growth are consistently and positively correlated. Countries with less burdensome business regulations grow faster. We include other commonly used measures of institutional quality from International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and Transparency International (TI) to verify the robustness of this result. Our main result remains signi…cant after the inclusion of these measures of institutional quality4 , as shown in Table 2B. The business regulations index di¤ers from these variables in two ways. First, it focus on a particular area of institutional quality. Second, it is based on objective measures (number of procedures, number of days, etc.), while the other variables are perceptions-based. 2 De…ned as an internal con‡ict causing at least 1,000 deaths. set of control variables includes: primary and secondary school enrollment in the initial period, absolute deviation from average GDP de‡ator in initial period, a binary variable for civil con‡ict, 3 regional dummies (Sub Saharan Africa, Latin America, East Asia), and average government consumption as percentage of GDP over the 10 year growth period. We di¤er from the speci…cation included in Barro (1991) by including civil con‡ict instead of assassinations and revolutions, including a dummy for East Asia (which is present in Barro (1996)), and excluding average investment as percentage of GDP over the 10 year growth period (which is also treated separately in Barro (1996)). 4 Corruption, rule of law and democratic accountability are highly correlated with the business regulations index. The pairwise correlation coe¢cient between the business regulations index and other measures of institutional quality is as follows: 0.6154 for ICRG - Corruption; 0.5796 for ICRG - Law and order; 0.4585 for ICRG - Democratic accountability; 0.1485 for TI - Corruption. The …rst three co¢cients are sign…cant at the 1% level. The last coe¢cient is signi…cant at the 10% level. According to ICRG, the corruption variable is ”an assessment of corruption within the political system;[..] actual or potential corruption in the form of excessive patronage, nepotism, job reservations, ’favor-for-favors’, secret party funding, and suspiciously close ties between politics and business”. Law and order assesses both the strength and impartiality of the legal system and the popular observance of the law. Democratic accountability measures how responsive government is to its people. (www.icrgonline.com) According to the source, ”the TI Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranks countries in terms of the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public o¢cials and politicians.” (www.transparency.org) 3 The 3 From the results in Table 2A, we cannot distinguish from three possible scenarios to establish causality. First, countries may have higher growth rates because of better business regulation. Second, countries that grow more may have more available resources to improve business regulations. Third, there may be another variable that makes business regulations and growth move together. To examine the causal link between regulations and growth we use two-stage least regressions. Following La Porta et al (1998), we instrument business regulations with the legal origin of a country’s commercial code or company law, absolute latitude, initial GDP per capita, religion and language. Legal origin has the characteristics of a good instrument for business regulations. It de…nes substantive and procedural aspects of the law, and therefore is linked to the complexity of business regulations. And it is reasonable to assume that legal origin, established centuries ago, does not have a direct impact on growth over the last decade. The same applies with the geography and culture variables. Table 2C presents the results. The e¤ect of more business-friendly regulations on growth remains positive and signi…cant in 2SLS regressions, although weaker than in OLS analysis. Tests of over-identifying restrictions are accepted, showing that the legal origin, geography and culture variables are not correlated with ", and that these variables do not explain growth through some mechanism other than business regulation. We check the robustness of our results by including several other control variables in the regressions reported in Table 2A. Our results remain signi…cant when controlling for trade, initial period investment, ethnolinguistic fractionalization, latitude, and landlocked countries. Also our results are robust to including the country’s primary religion and language as control variables instead of as instruments. We also try using 5, 15 and 20 year growth rates as well as GDP levels as the dependent variable and our results remain5 . Analyzing data from the Penn World Tables6 as used by Barro (1991), Hall and Jones (1999) and Sala-i-Martin et al (2004) does not alter our results, nor does replacing the WDI education data with the one introduced by Barro and Lee (1996). 4 Interpretation Our results indicate that government regulation of business is an important determinant of growth and a promising area for future research. The relationship between more business-friendly regulations and higher growth rates is consistently signi…cant in various speci…cations of standard growth models, and more consistently so than other determinants commonly used in the growth literature. 5 Although results are weaker for 5-year growth in the speci…cations that include regional dummies. Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002. 6 Alan 4 The impact of improving regulations is large. In Table 3, we analyze the magnitude by including dummies for each quartile of the business regulation index in the OLS regressions. Improving from the worst (…rst) to the best (fourth) quartile of business regulations implies a 2.3 percentage point increase in average annual growth. Table 3 also compares the impact of improving business regulations with another commonly used determinant of growth: primary school enrollment. Improving from the second worst to the best quartile of countries on primary school enrollment is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth rates, lower than the e¤ect of business regulations. The e¤ects of improvements in secondary education, in‡ation, and government consumption are also signi…cantly lower than the e¤ect of business regulations. Our results also have signi…cant implications for policy. They suggest that countries should put priority on reforming their business regulations when designing growth policies. Measures of institutions currently used in the growth literature indicate the extent of problems but not how to …x them. By contrast the indicators in the Doing Business database are directly linked to speci…c reforms. For example the procedures to register a business or property can be cut by combining them at a “one stop shop” for businesses. Establishing a credit bureau or reducing mandated severance pay for workers will also improve performance on the business regulations index. Our …ndings imply that identifying and implementing such reforms can accelerate economic growth. References [1] Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson, 2001, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: an Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review 91(5), 1369-1401. [2] Barro, Robert J, 1991, “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2), 407-443. [3] Barro, Robert J, 1996, “Determinants of Economic Growth: a Cross-Country Empirical Study”, NBER Working paper 5698. [4] Barro, Robert J and Jong Wha Lee, 1996, “International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality”, American Economic Review 86 (2), 218-223. 5 [5] Botero, Juan, Simeon Djankov, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, 2004, “The Regulation of Labor”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (4), 1339-1382. [6] Djankov, Simeon, Edward Gleaser, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, 2003, “The New Comparative Economics”, Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4), 595-619. [7] Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, 2002, “The Regulation of Entry”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (1), 1-37. [8] Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, 2003, “Courts”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (2), 453-517. [9] Doyle, Michael W. and Nicholas Sambanis, 2000, “International Peacebuilding: a Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis”, American Political Science Review 94 (4), 779-801. [10] Hall, Robert E. and Charles I. Jones, 1999, “Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 144 (1), 83-116. [11] La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny, 1998, “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, 106 (6), 1113-1155. [12] North, Douglas C, 1981, “Structure and Change in Economic History” (W. W. Norton & Co, New York) [13] Rodrik, Dani, 1999, “Where has all the Growth Gone? External Shocks, Social Con‡ict, and Growth Collapses”, Journal of Economic Growth 4 (4), 385-412 [14] Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, Gernot Doppelhofer, and Ronald I. Miller, 2004, “Determinants of LongTerm Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach”, American Economic Review 94 (4), 813-835. 6 Table 1: Description of the Variables from the Doing Business Dataset Topic Variable Entry Procedures Starting a Business Entry days Entry cost Entry Minimum Capital Hiring and Firing Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Investors Enforcing Contracts Number of calendar days required to complete all procedures that are officially required for an entrepreneur to start up an industrial or commercial business. Cost as percentage of income per capita associated with completing all procedures that are officially required for an entrepreneur to start up an industrial or commercial business. Minimum capital officially required for an entrepreneur to start up an industrial or commercial business, expressed as a percentage of income per capita. Labor Regulation Rigidity Measures the rigidity of three specific components of employment law: difficulty of hiring, hours of work, and difficulty of firing. Labor Firing Cost Measures the cost of advance notice requirements, severance payments and penalties due when firing a worker, expressed in terms of weekly wages. Property Procedures Number of procedures that are legally required for registering property transfers. Property Days Number of calendar days necessary for completing all procedures that are legally required for registering property transfers. Property Cost Cost as percentage of the property value associated with completing all procedures that are legally required for registering property. Legal Rights Measures whether collateral and bankruptcy laws provide for 10 features that facilitate lending. Credit Information Measures rules affecting the scope, access and quality of credit information available through either public or private credit registries. Disclosure Index Measures whether laws and regulations provide for seven ways of enhancing company disclosure of ownership and financial statements. Contract Procedures Number of procedures mandated by law or court regulation for enforcement of commercial contracts through the courts. Contract Days Contract Cost Closing a Business Description Number of procedures that are officially required for an entrepreneur to start up an industrial or commercial business. Recovery rate Number of calendar days necessary for completing all procedures mandated by law or court regulation for enforcement of commercial contracts through the courts. Cost as percentage of the contract value associated with completing all procedures mandated by law or court regulation for enforcement of contracts through the courts. Measures the efficiency of foreclosure or bankruptcy procedures by estimating how many cents on the dollar claimants—creditors, tax authorities, and employees—recover from a bankrupt firm. Source: World Bank Doing Business database, available at www.doingbusiness.org . Data on the Starting a Business, Hiring and Firing, and Enforcing Contracts are constructed based on the methodology in Djankov et al (2002), Botero et al (2004) and Djankov et al (2003) respectively. Table 2: GDP per capita growth regressions PANEL A: OLS PANEL B: Measures of institutional quality Independent Variables Business Regulations Index PANEL C: 2SLS Dependent Variable: GDP Growth Rate (average 1993 - 2002) (A1) 4.5499 a (1.138) (A2) 3.6523 a (1.155) (A3) 3.3290 a (1.066) (A4) 2.8989 a (1.120) ICRG - Corruption (B1) 2.3950 c (1.324) (B2) 2.5878 b (1.159) (B3) 2.5565 b (1.196) (B4) 2.9417 a (1.135) (C1) 5.6375 a (2.070) (C2) 4.8858 b (1.969) (C3) 3.3585 c (1.939) (C4) 4.8474 c (2.580) -0.6844 (0.431) -1.1655 b (0.525) -1.7681 b (0.688) -2.0007 b (0.799) 0.1833 (0.246) ICRG - Law and order 0.1504 (0.228) ICRG - Democratic accountability 0.1485 (0.163) TI - Corruption -0.0514 (0.082) Log of GDP per capita 1993 -0.5688 c (0.290) -0.8669 b (0.368) -0.8887 c (0.493) -0.8425 (0.608) -1.2210 b (0.597) -1.1820 c (0.626) -1.1109 c (0.625) -0.8255 (0.611) Primary school enrollment 1993 -0.0033 (0.0136) -0.0061 (0.0147) -0.0085 (0.016) -0.0089 (0.015) -0.0095 (0.016) -0.0070 (0.015) -0.0183 (0.0162) -0.0171 (0.0169) Secondary school enrollment 1993 0.0088 (0.0145) 0.0099 (0.0168) 0.0178 (0.018) 0.0174 (0.016) 0.0148 (0.019) 0.0103 (0.017) 0.0402 b (0.0192) 0.0364 c (0.0186) Deviation from average deflator 1993 -0.0007 c (0.0004) -0.0004 (0.0003) -0.0004 (0.001) -0.0004 (0.001) -0.0003 (0.001) -0.0004 (0.000) 0.0004 (0.0008) 0.0008 (0.0009) Civil Conflict -0.7389 (0.595) -0.4925 (0.620) -0.8186 (0.668) -0.8142 (0.702) -0.7347 (0.728) -0.8339 (0.705) -0.8070 (0.676) -0.2624 (0.619) -0.4298 (0.595) -0.5497 (0.658) Africa -1.7182 b (0.778) -1.4646 b (0.722) -1.7393 b (0.799) -2.2028 a (0.838) -2.0114 b (0.859) -2.1122 b (0.829) -1.7206 b (0.805) -2.1831 b (1.037) -1.8658 b (0.897) -2.3562 b (1.095) East Asia 0.9862 (0.761) 1.3956 (0.849) 0.9425 (0.880) 0.7034 (0.962) 0.7705 (0.977) 0.8208 (1.007) 0.9750 (0.892) 0.4746 (0.932) 1.5375 (1.006) 0.8629 (1.065) Latin America -0.8532 (0.550) -0.6416 (0.578) -0.8238 (0.771) -1.0247 (0.823) -0.8286 (0.828) -1.1449 (0.833) -0.8107 (0.774) -1.1474 c (0.618) -0.4215 (0.583) -0.7654 (0.828) -0.0833 a (0.031) -0.0802 b (0.032) -0.0816 a (0.031) -0.0848 a (0.031) 12.2790 b (5.003) 11.6745 b (5.016) 11.3551 b (5.346) 9.5885 c (5.110) Government Consumption (as % of GDP) Constant Obs R-Sq 4.1538 b (2.088) 7.6757 a (2.911) 7.8087 c (4.066) -0.0849 a (0.0308) # 9.4828 c (5.067) 133 0.09 133 0.19 131 0.22 106 0.26 95 0.30 95 0.30 95 0.30 106 0.27 -0.0701 b (0.0322) 4.4614 (2.824) 104 0.13 9.7066 b (4.042) 104 0.23 14.4984 b (5.666) 103 0.30 17.2290 a (6.433) 84 0.36 Note: a=significant at the 1% level, b=significant at the 5% level, c=significant at the 10% level. Robust standard errors in parentheses. The Instrumental Variables regressions use the following variables as instruments for business regulations: Legal origin (English, French, German, Nordic, and Socialist), Principal religion in the country (Catholic, Muslim, Protestant, Other), Percentage of English speaking population, Initial GDP per capita and Absolute latitude. Table 3: GDP per capita growth regressions: regulations compared with other determinants of growth Independent Variables First Quartile of Business Regulations Dependent Variable: GDP Growth Rate (average 1993 - 2002) (1) (2) (3) (4) -2.8557 a -2.7697 a -2.3241 a (0.662) (0.654) (0.649) Second Quartile of Business Regulations -1.2614 b (0.569) -1.1830 b (0.574) -1.2631 b (0.597) Third Quartile of Business Regulations -1.9673 a (0.521) -1.9621 a (0.535) -1.8727 a (0.590) First Quartile of Primary Schooling 1993 -0.8633 (0.685) -0.7636 (0.656) -0.5334 (0.646) Second Quartile of Primary Schooling 1993 -0.9685 c (0.535) -1.0293 c (0.532) -0.9454 c (0.506) Third Quartile of Primary Schooling 1993 0.2744 (0.523) 0.1486 (0.503) 0.0965 (0.449) -0.0530 (0.197) -0.6050 b (0.248) -0.9214 a (0.298) Log of GDP per capita 1993 -0.4878 c (0.254) Civil Conflict -0.6942 (0.604) Africa -1.7878 b (0.710) East Asia 0.6247 (0.765) Latin America -1.0285 c (0.564) Constant Obs R-Sq 7.2401 a (2.399) 133 0.12 2.4996 (1.788) 133 0.04 8.5690 a (2.384) 11.6800 a (2.944) 133 0.15 133 0.25 Note: a=significant at the 1% level, b=significant at the 5% level, c=significant at the 10% level. Robust standard errors in parentheses.