Growth and Entrepreneurship: An Empirical Assessment

Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy # 3205 Growth and Entrepreneurship: An Empirical Assessment by Zoltan Acs Merrick School of Business, University of Baltimore David Audretsch Max Planck Institute of Economics and Indiana University Pontus Braunerhjelm Linköping University Bo Carlsson Case Western Reserve University Number of Pages: 29 The Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy are edited by the Group Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy, MPI Jena. For editorial correspondence, please contact: egppapers@econ.mpg.de ISSN 1613-8333 © by the author Max Planck Institute of Economics Group Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Kahlaische Str. 10 07745 Jena, Germany Fax: ++49-3641-686710 Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 1 GROWTH AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT1 Zoltan J. Acs, David B. Audretsch, Pontus Braunerhjelm and Bo Carlsson2 November 2005 Abstract This paper suggests that the spillover of knowledge may not occur automatically as has typically been assumed in models of endogenous growth. Rather, a mechanism is required that serves as a conduit for the spillover and commercialization of knowledge from the source creating it to the firm actually commercializing the new ideas. In this paper, entrepreneurship is identified as one such mechanism facilitating the spillover of knowledge. Using a panel of entrepreneurship data for 18 countries, empirical evidence is found that in addition to measures of R&D and human capital, entrepreneurial activity also serves to promote economic growth. JEL: Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Growth 1 Financial support is gratefully acknowledged from Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg’s Foundation. Excellent research assistance has been provided by Benny Borgman, The Royal Institute of Technology. 2 Zoltan Acs, Merrick School of Business, University of Baltimore, Baltimore (zacs@ubalt.edu), David Audretsch, Max Planck Institute of Economics (audretsch@econ.mpg.de), Pontus Braunerhjelm, Linköping University and Centre for Business and Policy Studies, Box 5629, 11485 Stockholm (pontusb@infra.kth.se), Bo Carlsson, Case Western Reserve University, Weatherhead School of Management, Department of Economics, Cleveland (Bo.Carlsson@case.edu). Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2 1.Introduction The publication of Solow’s (1956) seminal article triggered a major literature linking the traditional factors of production, capital and labor, to economic growth. With the development of the endogenous growth theory, knowledge was added to the traditional factors as explicitly explaining economic growth (Romer, 1986; Lucas, 1988). In contrast to the traditional factors of production, knowledge had a particularly potent impact on economic growth because of its propensity to spill over for use by third-party firms. Public policy has responded to the endogenous growth theory by emphasizing investments in research and human capital. However, knowledge investments have proven sufficiently disappointing in generating economic growth. What has been termed as “the European Paradox”, which reflects modest growth even with high levels of investment in human capital and research, has become a characteristic of many European countries (Figure 1). This suggests that the spillover of knowledge may not be as automatic as has been assumed in endogenous growth models (Acs et al, 2004). Rather, mechanisms may be needed to facilitate the spillover of knowledge. The purpose of this paper is to suggest and empirically test one such mechanism that facilitates the spillover of knowledge, which should therefore generate additional economic growth – the startup of new firms. An important motivation for starting a new firm is to commercialize ideas that otherwise might not be commercialized in the context of an incumbent firm. Thus, entrepreneurship serves as a conduit for the spillover of knowledge, thereby contributing to economic growth. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 3 In the second section of this paper the reasons why entrepreneurship should have a positive impact on economic growth are explained. In the third section an empirical model is specified linking entrepreneurship to economic growth. This model is then estimated using a time-series panel of country-specific observations in the fourth section. Finally, in the last section a summary and conclusions are provided. In particular the results suggest that entrepreneurial activity has a positive and systematic impact on economic growth. Entrepreneurship as a missing link in economic growth Solow (1957) observed that the contributions of additional labor and capital could not explain increases in growth over time. After accounting for the contributions provided by increased labor and investment, he attributed that unexplained effect to technical progress (the “technical residual”). Notwithstanding the importance of Solow’s observation, the mechanisms that resulted in technical progress and knowledge accumulation were still unspecified.3 That gap was bridged by the knowledge based – endogenous - growth theory developed in the late 1980s (Romer 1986, 1990; Lucas 1988). In the endogenous growth models profit-maximizing firms produce knowledge (A) in one period, which is used as inputs in subsequent periods. Part of the production of new knowledge at the firm level cannot be appropriated by the firms themselves and spills over into an aggregate knowledge stock that becomes potentially accessible to other firms and agents within a country. At the same time knowledge production at the firm level is assumed to be characterized by (strongly) diminishing returns to scale. Thus, 3 See Rostow (1990) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995) for a survey. See also Kaldor (1961) and Denison (1967). Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 4 knowledge is only partially excludable and all firms benefit from spillovers originating in aggregate knowledge investments, n n i =1 i =1 A = ∑ ai = ∑ l i , R (1) where ai is each individual firm’s (i’s) contribution to the knowledge stock, which is achieved by employing high-skilled research workers ( li , R ). The combination of partial excludability and non-rivalry thus suggested an important role for technology in explaining growth. In the knowledge-based model the channels through which knowledge is converted into growth is explained as general externality (Arrow 1962) that feeds into the production function of incumbent firms. Hence, whereas knowledge, or technology, was exogenous in the neoclassical growth models, the diffusion of knowledge is exogenous in the endogenous growth models. As pointed out by Acs et al (2004) entrepreneurship is one mechanism that converts knowledge into growth. Building on Romer (1990) they elaborate a model where there are two methods of developing new products. As in the original model, incumbents undertake R&D by employing researchers ( LR ), which generate new knowledge. That constitutes the first mechanism to convert knowledge into growth. To the degree that new knowledge is not completely commercialized by incumbents, potential opportunities are created for entrepreneurs to start new firms in order to exploit knowledge that otherwise would not be commercialized. Such start-ups may serve as a Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 5 conduit for the spillover of knowledge from other firms, which constitute the second means by which knowledge is commercialized. Thus, entrepreneurship also influences the stock of knowledge (Acs et al, 2005) and, eventually, growth. New knowledge developed in that way can be thought of as either new type of physical capital, blueprints/patents or “business models” that is used in the section of the economy producing final goods.4 Specifically, new varieties of capital goods and new knowledge are produced as: A& = σ R LR A + σ E Z ( LE ) A (2) where the σ : s are efficiency parameters in R&D carried out by incumbents ( LR ) and in knowledge-based entrepreneurship ( LE ), respectively. Knowledge is thus produced by labour employed in either R&D-labs or those engaged in entrepreneurial activities, while A is the stock of available knowledge at a given point in time. Entrepreneurial activity is assumed to be characterized by decreasing returns to scale ( γ p 1 ), Z ( LE ) = LγE , γ < 1 (3) since entrepreneurial skill is unevenly distributed among the population. Hence, doubling the number of people engaged in entrepreneurial activities will not double the output of new knowledge and varieties. Rewriting equation 2 as 4 As e.g. Grossman and Helpman (1991) have shown, the new varieties of capital goods can just as well be thought of as new varieties of goods entering consumers’ utility functions directly. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy A& = σ R LR + σ E Z ( LE ) A 6 (4) shows that the rate of technological progress is an increasing function in R&D, entrepreneurship and the efficiency in these two activities. As shown in the Appendix, combining equations 2 and 3 with a standard consumer optimization problem, and a production function for final goods, yields a well-defined balanced growth path. Thus, growth is a function of g = f ( A, R , E , λ ) (5) where A is the existing stock of knowledge, R is expenditure on R&D, E is the level of entrepreneurship and λ refers to all other variables influencing growth (capital, labour, institutions, etc.).5 One implication of the model is that in steady state growth is increasing in both R&D and entrepreneurial activities. An economy endowed with a labour force having high entrepreneurial skill enjoys higher growth rates. Apart from these model-specific properties, the model shares a number of characteristics with previous models (e.g., growth is decreasing in the discount factor but increasing with a larger labour force). 5 A certain level of entrepreneurial activities will always be profitable ( LE > 0 ), while R &D may or may not be profitable, which depends in a non-trivial way on a range of parameters. The degree of entrepreneurial activity is, for instance, decreasing in the productivity of R&D as long as R&D is profitable. Thus, R&D and entrepreneurship are to some extent substitutes. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 7 The model implies some (testable) predictions. First, at the country level growth is influenced by both R&D-spending and entrepreneurship. Second, countries with relatively low R&D-spending may still enjoy high growth due to a larger share of entrepreneurship. Depending on the range, R&D and entrepreneurship may however vary from being substitutes to complements. Note that the level of entrepreneurship may not necessarily be the best indicator of the level of entrepreneurial efforts in a country, as the distribution of entrepreneurial skill may differ across countries. This point to the importance of carefully assessing the policy conclusions derived from standard endogenous growth models (taxes and subsidies to influence R&D). These may not suffice to enhance the rate of growth. Empirical Model and Measurement The model presented in the previous section is tested by incorporating a measure of entrepreneurship to the traditional factors that have been linked to economic growth. While empirical estimations of growth models have typically specified investments in new knowledge as exerting a direct impact on economic growth, in this approach we include knowledge transmitted through entrepreneurial activities by estimating the following model, g i ,t = α 1 + α 2 A1,i ,t + α 3 E i ,t + α 4 λi ,t + ε i ,t (6) where the subscripts i and t refer to countries and years, respectively. The dependent variable is economic growth while the variables explaining economic growth are investments in new knowledge (A), entrepreneurship (E), and a set of other variables Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 8 represented by the vector λ. We will implement different specifications for these variables, discussed below. To control for country-specific factors, the model is estimated using fixed effects where a dummy variable is included for each country, implying that we control for all unobserved time-invariant differences among the countries.6 The error term can be expected to violate the classic i.i.d. assumptions with regard to both autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Autocorrelation is induced in the model since lagged values of GDP are used to construct the dependent variable. Heteroscedasticity is also a reasonable assumption considering the use of country-level data. Therefore the model will be estimated using the feasible generalized least squares technique that account for heteroscedastic error structure between panels and panel-specific autocorrelation. The dependent variable in equation 6 – growth – is specified in two alternative ways. The first specification refers to either the five-year moving average of growth in per capita GDP or year-to-year differences. The second is a five-year moving average of growth in GDP, i.e. not weighted by the population. The five-year moving averages are used to smooth out short-run cyclical variations. The independent variables are specified in a similar way. Entrepreneurship (E) is approximated by the self-employment rate (excluding the agricultural sector). While this variable certainly may not be the ideal measure reflecting entrepreneurial activity, it is the only measure available for cross-country, multi-year analysis of entrepreneurship. Selfemployment rates have emerged as the standard measure for reflecting entrepreneurial activity in cross-country studies (Parker, 2004). Because it facilitates knowledge 6 The dummy variable for one country is left out, i.e. the control country. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 9 spillovers, entrepreneurship is expected to be positively associated with economic growth. Knowledge is captured by two variables frequently used in the empirical growth literature. The first is total expenditures on research and development as a percentage of GDP (R&D). The second knowledge measure is the mean years of schooling in the population (over 25 years old), (EDU). These measures of knowledge are expected to influence growth positively. In addition, we include a set of control variables that have been shown to influence growth in previous empirical work. First, the central variable influencing economic growth in the traditional Solow (1956) model is the capital-labor ratio (CAP/L). According to this model, the economic growth is positively related to capital intensity. The next control variable we insert is the share of government expenditures in GDP (GEXP). To test for any evidence of structural change between the decade of the 1980s and 1990s, a dummy variable (D90) is included for the years in the 1990s along with the country level fixed effects which likewise are captured through dummies (not shown). The variables are precisely defined in Table 1. Summary statistics are provided in Table 2. A correlation matrix is shown in Table 3. An important qualification is that the role of new and small firms has long been hypothesized and found to be influenced by economic growth (Mills and Schumann, 1985; Storey, 1991). Thus, entrepreneurial activity may be endogenous to economic growth. To control for the possible endogeneity of entrepreneurship and the simultaneous Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 10 relationship between economic growth and entrepreneurship, two-stage least squares estimation may be appropriate, where the first stage consists of estimating; E i ,t = β 1 + β 2 A1,i ,t + β 3 AGE i ,t + β 4UNEMPi ,t + β 5 λi ,t + ε i ,t (7) and the variables are defined as above, with the exception of the instrument variables AGE and UNEMPL. AGE refers to the share of the population between 30 and 44. Studies using demographic variables have shown that individuals in this age cohort are most likely to undertake entrepreneurial activities (Storey, 1991). The other instrument is UNEMPL, defined as the unemployment rate.7 In the second stage the estimated values of entrepreneurship (E i,t) from equation (7) are then inserted into equation (6). Because of the assumed heteroscedastic and autocorrelated structure of the error term the two-stage least squares estimation will report results using the HAC standard errors and covariance estimation technique.8 This assures that the estimated standard errors are robust with respect both to arbitrary heteroscedasticity and arbitrary autocorrelation up to some specified lag (a three-year lag is the standard in the reported results). Each of the two-stage least squares estimations also report the test statistic describing the probability that the reported F-value for the estimation is zero. The partial instrumental variables R2 is also reported and describes how much of the squared residuals in the first stage regression that are explained by the instrumental variables. This test together with the partial p-value – i.e., the probability that the joint F-value for 7 As Storey (1991) shows in his rich review of the literature, there have been a large number of studies linking unemployment to entrepreneurship. 8 For a more detailed description of heteroscedastic and autocorrelation consistent variance (HAC), see for example Cushing and McGarvey (1999) or Wooldridge (2002). Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 11 the instrumental variables is zero – describes how good the instrumental variables are at explaining entrepreneurship. The Hansen's J statistic for valid instruments is also reported. The joint null hypothesis is that the instruments are valid instruments, i.e., uncorrelated with the error term, and the reported value is the p-value stating the probability that the test statistic is zero, which would imply acceptance of the null hypothesis. In the feasible generalized least squares estimation the Wald test statistic and its associated p-value are reported. Similarly, we also show the Davidson and MacKinnon (1993) test of exogeneity comparing a standard fixed effects model with its instrumental variable counterpart. The null hypothesis states that the standard fixed effects model yields consistent estimates, and the reported value is the p-value stating the probability that the test statistic is zero, which would imply acceptance of the null hypothesis. Empirical Results Table 4 present the empirical results from estimating country-level GDP per capita growth rates. Both feasible general least square and two-stage least squares estimations are used. The first column shows the results using the entire sample period, 1981-1998, where no simultaneity is assumed to exist between economic growth and entrepreneurship. As the positive and statistically significant coefficient of the entrepreneurship rate suggests, growth rates tend to be positively related to the extent of entrepreneurial activity. The coefficients of R&D and education are both statistically significant and Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 12 positive, indicating that, as the models of endogenous growth suggest, economic growth tends to respond positively to investments in research and human capital. The coefficient of the control variables for government expenditures cannot be considered statistically significant. The negative and statistically significant coefficient of the capital-labor ratio suggests that capital intensity is negatively related to economic growth. The dummy variable for the 1990s is statistically significant. The Wald statistic and its associated p-value indicate that this specification does explain a significant part of the variation in growth. As the value of the exogeneity tests of 0.00 suggests, the estimated results in Regression 1 may be influenced by the endogeneity of entrepreneurship to economic growth. Thus, in the second column the model is estimated using two-stage least squares. The coefficient of entrepreneurship not only remains positive and statistically significant but also actually becomes even stronger. While the coefficient of R&D cannot be considered statistically significant, the coefficient of education remains positive and statistically significant. The only other difference is that the coefficient of the capitallabor ratio is no longer statistically significant. To make sure that this result is not dependent on the lag length of the autocorrelation structure the regression has been tested with a lag length of one year up to six years without any significant changes in coefficients or significance.9 To test for the impact on the results of structural change that might have occurred in the 1990s, the model is estimated using only the years 1990-1998 in the third and fourth columns. The results remain basically unchanged. Again, entrepreneurship is 9 This has been done with all the two-stage least squares results, with the same conclusion. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 13 found to be positively related to economic growth. Similarly, both R&D and education are positively related to economic growth, although the coefficient of R&D is only statistically significant in the two-stage estimation reported in the last column. To examine the sensitivity of the results to the measure of the dependent variable economic growth used, an alternative measure of economic growth, the year-to-year change in the five-year moving average for growth in GDP per capita is substituted and the results are shown in Table 5. To correspond with the dependent variable, changes in the independent variables are used for the estimations presented in Table 5. The instruments for entrepreneurial activity presented in the previous section are extended to include the share of the population living in urban regions. The reason for this added instrument is that, when modeled in differences, the Hansen's J statistic rejected the null hypothesis for the basic set of variables but not the extended set.10 Like the two original instruments the degree of the population living in urban regions have been shown to influence entrepreneurial effort in previous studies (Acs et al, 2005). When comparing the results in table 4 and table 5 they remain basically unchanged, with the exception of the feasible least squares estimation for the 1990s in column three. The change in entrepreneurship rates is found to have a positive impact on the change in economic growth rates. In addition, the change in R&D is found to have a positive impact on the change in economic growth only in the sample period of the 1990s but not over the entire period. 10 Test statistics can be supplied upon request. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 14 Finally, we also estimate the model with growth rates that are not weighted by the population as the dependent variable. As shown in Table 6, this does not significantly change the results. Thus, the results prove to be strikingly robust with respect to the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth. The empirical evidence supports the view that entrepreneurial activity is conducive to economic growth. Conclusions Investments in new economic knowledge have an especially potent impact in endogenous growth models because of the assumed externality, or what has become known as knowledge spillovers. This paper has suggested that such knowledge spillovers may not, in fact, be automatic, but rather depend on important spillover mechanisms, such as entrepreneurial activity. By taking ideas that otherwise might not be commercialized and introducing them in the market by creating a new firm, entrepreneurship is shown to positively influence growth. Implicitly this provides evidence for start-ups as a conduit for facilitating the spillover of knowledge. Based on a cross-section time series panel of country-specific measure of entrepreneurship, the empirical results suggest that, in fact, entrepreneurial activity does make a positive contribution to economic growth. These results do not contest the importance, and even primacy, of knowledge investments in generating economic growth. As the endogenous growth theory predicts, the empirical evidence identifies knowledge as an important source of economic growth. However, those countries with a Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 15 greater degree of entrepreneurial activity exhibit systematically higher rates of economic growth. Thus, the empirical evidence is consistent with the view that entrepreneurship can serve as a conduit for the spillover of knowledge, and thereby is conducive to economic growth. Future research may identify other types of mechanisms facilitating the spillover of knowledge and their impact on economic growth. Such spillover mechanisms may prove to be the missing link between investments in new knowledge and subsequent economic growth. The results also emphasize the importance of policies that not only promotes R&D-investments, but also takes the role of spillover mechanism into account, such as entrepreneurship. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 16 References Acs, Z.J., Audretsch, D.B., Braunerhjelm, P., and Carlsson, B., 2004. “The Missing Link: The Knowledge Filter and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, CEPR working paper no. 4358. Aghion, P., and Howitt, P., 1998, Endogenous Growth Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Arrow, K., 1962, “The Economic Implication of Learning by Doing”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 155-173. Audretsch, D. and Keilbach, 2003, “Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Performance,” Centre for Economic Policy Research, No. 3678. Audretsch, D. and Thurik, Roy, 2002, “Linking Entrepreneurship to Growth,” OECD STI Working Paper, 2081/2. Blanchflower, D.G. and Oswald, A., 1998, “What makes an Entrepreneur?”, Journal of Labor Economics, 16, pp. 26-60. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X., 1995, Economic Growth, McGraw Hill, New York. Cushing, M. J. and McGarvey, M. G., 1999, “Covariance Matrix Estimation”, in Matyas, L. (eds.), Generalized Methods of Moments Estimation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Denison, E.F., 1967, Why Growth Rates Differ, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. University Press, Oxford and New York. Evans, D. and Jovanovic, B., 1989, “An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice Under Liquidity Constraints”, Journal of Political Economy, 97, pp. 808-827. Grossman, G. and Helpman, E., 1991, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge, Ma. Jones, C.I., 1995a, “R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 103, 759-784. Jones, C.I., 1995b, “Time Series Test of Endogenous Growth Models”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 495-525. Kaldor, N., 1961, “Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth”, in Lutz, F.A. and Hague, D.C. (eds.), The Theory of Capital, MacMillan, London. Lucas, R., 1988, “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-39. Lucas, R., 1993, “Making a Miracle,” Econometrica, 61, 251-272. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 17 Mills, D.E. and Schuman, L. (1985). Industry Structure with Fluctuating Demand. American Economic Review, 75, 758-767. OECD, 2002, Statistical Compendium on CD. Parker, S., 2004, The Economics of Entrepreneurshsip and Self-Employment, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Romer, P., 1986, “Increasing Returns and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 94, 1002-1037. Romer, P., 1990, “Endogenous Technical Change”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, 71102. Rostow, W., 1990, Theories of Economic Growth from David Hume to the Present, Oxford Rostow, W. Schmitz, J., 1989, “Imitation, Entrepreneurship, and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 97, 721-739. Schumpeter, J., 1911. Theorie der Wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. English translation: The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Ma., 1934. Schumpeter, J., 1942, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Harper and Row, New York. Schumpeter, J., 1947, “The Creative Response in Economic History”, Journal of Economic History, 7, 149-159. Solow, R., 1956, “A Contribution to Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. Storey, D., 2003, “Entrepreneurship, small and Medium Sized Enterprises and Public Policies,” in Z.J. Acs and D. Audretsch, Handbook of Entrepreneurship Research, Boston, Kluwer, 473-514. Thurik, R.,1999, “Entrepreneurship, Industrial Transformation and Growth, in G.D. Libecap, ed., The Sources of Entrepreneurial Activity, Stamford, Ct: JAI Press, 29-65. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 18 Wooldridge, J. M., 2002, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Table 1. Definition of variables and data sources. Variable Definition GROWTH Dependent variable. Five year moving average of gross domestic product growth per capita (at the price levels and PPPs of 1995). ENT Non-agricultural self-employed, as percentage of total non-agricultural employment. R&D Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as percentage of GDP. All values in constant 1995 prices and PPP. EDUCATION Average years of schooling in the population over 25 years of age. GEXP D.CAP/L AGE UNEMP URBAN DUMMY-90 19 Sources OECD, Statistical Compendium via Internet 2003-10-09 (National Accounts vol1, and own calculations). OECD, Statistical Compendium via Internet 2003-10-09 (Labour Market Statistics). OECD, Statistical Compendium via Internet 2004-03-04 (Industry Science and Technology). Penn World tables. Values only avaliable every fourth year. Values inbetween are approximated by assuming constant change between the years. Government expenditures as OECD, Statistical Compendium via percentage of GDP. Internet 2004-03-04 (Historical Statistics). Capital stock, divided by employment. OECD, Statistical Compendium via Values in yearly differences. Internet 2004-09-20 (OECD Economic Outlook Stat & Proj). Share of population between 30 and 44 Values only avaliable for 1978, 1985, years of age. 1990, 1994 and 1998. Values inbetween are apporixmated by assuming constant change between the years. Unemployment as percentage of total OECD, Statistical Compendium via labour force. Internet 2004-09-20 (National Accounts and Historical Statistics). The share of the total population living World Bank (2002), World Development in urban areas. Indicators CD-ROM. Washington: World Bank. Time dummy that assumes the value Own calculations. one if year>1989 and zero otherwise. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 20 Table 2a. Statistics of variables Country Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Ireland Japan Netherlands New Zealand Norway Spain Sweden U.K. U.S. GROWTH Min Mean .022 .034 .015 .023 .009 .021 .007 .027 .005 .019 -.013 .025 .010 .021 .009 .022 .018 .053 .006 .028 .009 .026 -.001 .022 .016 .032 .013 .028 -.001 .020 .008 .025 .020 .032 Max .044 .036 .030 .044 .032 .051 .032 .041 .098 .049 .037 .041 .045 .044 .032 .039 .044 GROWTH/CAPITA Min Mean Max .008 .020 .031 .011 .020 .028 .006 .009 .028 -.006 .016 .033 .003 .017 .031 -.018 .021 .048 .006 .016 .027 -.027 .006 .027 .012 .048 .087 .004 .024 .045 .003 .020 .030 -.008 .013 .027 .011 .027 .039 .008 .025 .042 -.008 .016 .031 .005 .023 .037 .010 .022 .035 Table 2b. Statistics of variables, continued. GEXP Country Min Mean Max Australia 34.5 37.5 40.0 Austria 52.1 54.6 57.9 Belgium 49.4 55.3 63.7 Canada 41.2 46.8 53.3 Denmark 53.7 57.9 61.7 Finland 42.3 51.8 64.4 France 49.4 52.8 55.5 Germany 44.0 47.5 50.3 Ireland 31.9 44.8 54.5 Japan 30.5 33.7 38.6 Netherlands 45.3 53.8 59.9 New Zealand 36.1 39.5 45.2 Norway 43.5 50.3 56.3 Spain 36.9 42.4 49.4 Sweden 56.9 62.9 73.0 U.K. 37.0 43.5 47.8 U.S. 33.6 35.9 38.0 Min 11.7 6.0 11.6 6.5 6.3 6.0 8.0 7.0 9.7 9.4 7.7 8.9 4.8 16.1 4.2 8.0 6.6 EDUCATION Min Mean 9.8 10.0 6.3 7.0 8.0 8.4 9.7 10.1 10.1 10.7 9.0 9.5 5.5 6.3 8.3 8.6 7.0 7.8 7.6 8.6 7.8 8.2 10.4 11.4 6.9 7.5 4.8 5.7 8.4 9.4 8.0 8.4 10.7 11.7 ENT Mean 12.5 7.0 13.0 8.0 7.1 8.7 9.2 8.5 12.4 11.4 8.7 15.0 6.1 17.8 7.1 11.0 7.4 Max 13.5 8.6 14.1 10.0 8.5 10.3 10.2 9.4 14.0 13.6 10.0 16.8 7.8 18.8 9.3 12.4 8.0 Min 0.94 1.12 1.46 1.24 1.05 1.17 1.92 2.20 0.64 2.29 1.79 0.90 1.35 0.47 2.17 1.79 2.34 R&D Mean 1.34 1.51 1.65 1.54 1.53 1.94 2.23 2.40 0.93 2.74 1.98 0.94 1.56 0.71 2.95 2.10 2.59 D.CAP/L Max Min Mean Max 10.1 -.13 .16 .49 7.7 .24 .34 .47 9.0 .11 .36 .64 10.7 -.10 .11 .72 11.9 -.1.80 3.24 7.71 10.1 -.58 .43 1.76 7.3 .08 .32 .51 9.1 -1.11 .14 .53 8.4 -.48 .08 .43 9.9 -.04 .03 .16 8.8 -.07 .10 .41 11.9 -.35 .11 .58 8.3 -.97 .78 3.57 6.9 -.06 .16 .42 10.0 -.13 3.21 11.18 9.0 -.13 .09 .32 12.2 -.08 .05 .27 Max 1.75 1.95 1.89 1.79 2.05 2.89 2.40 2.54 1.31 2.95 2.20 0.99 1.74 0.89 3.79 2.38 2.76 Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Table 2c. Statistics of variables, continued. URBAN Country Min Mean Max Australia 84.69 85.13 85.70 Austria 64.30 64.56 64.86 Belgium 95.52 96.41 97.18 Canada 75.80 76.47 76.93 Denmark 83.82 84.63 85.10 Finland 59.80 61.96 66.14 France 73.38 74.14 75.24 Germany 82.89 85.10 87.10 Ireland 55.50 56.96 58.56 Japan 76.30 77.35 78.52 Netherlands 88.42 88.72 89.24 New Zealand 83.48 84.73 86.50 Norway 70.66 72.34 74.78 Spain 73.08 75.21 77.16 Sweden 83.10 83.11 83.22 U.K. 88.82 89.06 89.38 U.S. 73.89 75.22 76.76 Min 20.0 19.8 19.0 20.2 21.1 21.8 19.1 20.1 16.5 19.9 20.8 18.9 18.8 18.2 20.1 19.3 19.2 AGE Mean 22.1 21.3 21.3 23.3 21.9 23.2 21.1 21.5 18.5 22.5 22.8 21.0 20.9 19.6 20.9 20.5 22.4 Max 23.4 23.5 23.2 25.7 22.4 24.7 22.4 23.6 19.9 24.1 24.1 22.4 22.1 21.7 22.2 21.6 24.6 Min 5.6 2.5 8.7 7.5 5.4 3.1 7.4 4.5 7.8 2.1 4.3 3.5 2.0 13.8 1.5 6.1 4.5 UNEMP Mean Max 8.1 10.7 3.6 4.3 11.4 13.2 9.6 11.9 8.0 11.4 8.3 16.4 10.2 12.5 7.0 9.8 13.7 17.0 2.7 4.1 8.3 11.9 6.4 10.3 3.9 6.0 19.1 23.8 5.1 10.2 9.2 11.8 6.5 9.5 21 Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 22 Table 3a. Correlation matrix | ENT R&D EDUCATION GEXP D.CAP/L AGE -------------+-----------------------------------------------------R&D | -0.4263 EDUCATION | -0.4252 0.3776 GEXP | -0.3668 0.0521 -0.1012 D.CAP/L | 0.0987 0.3762 0.0221 -0.3979 AGE | -0.2799 0.3363 0.4616 -0.1181 -0.0278 UNEMP | 0.6685 -0.4934 -0.3184 0.0970 -0.3467 -0.3063 Table 3b. Correlation Matrix, all variables in differences | ∆ENT ∆R&D ∆EDUCATION ∆GEXP ∆CAP/L ∆AGE ∆UNEMP -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------∆R&D | 0.0278 ∆EDUCATION | -0.1156 0.0361 ∆GEXP | -0.0076 0.1683 0.0653 ∆CAP/L | -0.1741 0.0094 0.3072 0.0780 ∆AGE | 0.1103 0.0063 -0.2652 0.1267 -0.4770 ∆UNEMP | 0.1930 0.0131 0.0690 0.5645 0.0223 0.0821 ∆URBAN | 0.0758 0.1198 0.1008 -0.1036 0.0315 -0.3700 0.0290 Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 23 Table 4: Results, FGLS and 2SLS regression techniques. Dependet variable: Five year moving average for growth in GDP per capita. Instruments for ENT:AGE & UNEMP Reg 4 Reg 3 Reg 2 Reg 1 1981 – 1998 1981 – 1998 1990 – 1998 1990 – 1998 2SLS FGLS 2SLS FGLS ENT¤ 1.61*** 11.36*** 1.99*** 11.31*** (3.68) (4.97) (3.04) (2.90) R&D¤ .61** .00 .44 1.87** (2.84) (.00) (1.64) (2.21) EDU .02* .02*** .00* .01*** (2.09) (3.92) (1.76) (3.61) ¤ GEXP .04 -.51 -.11 -.52 (.31) (-1.09) (-.72) (-1.14) ¤ D.CAP/L -16.11** 10.53 -16.15** -21.06 (-2.26) (.44) (-2.53) (-1.32) DUMMY-90 -.01*** -.02*** (-5.09) (-4.99) Constant -.02 -.24*** -.03 -.26*** (-1.45) (-3.88) (-1.19) (-2.88) Wald 43.66 19.13 P-value .00 .00 Exogenity test .00 .00 P>F .00 .00 Partial IV R2 .22 .30 Partial P-value .00 .00 Valid Instruments .81 .20 No. of obs. 268 268 127 127 Note: t-statistics in parentheses. *, ** and *** denote the significance at the 10, 5 and 1 percent level, respectively. Estimates for country dummies are not presented but can be supplied upon request. ¤ Variable has been divided by 1 000. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 24 Table 5: Results, FGLS and 2SLS regression techniques. Dependet variable: First year differences in a five year moving average for growth in GDP per capita (∆GROWTH). Instruments for ∆ENT: ∆AGE, ∆URBAN & ∆UNEMP Reg 2 Reg 3 Reg 4 Reg 1 1981 – 1998 1981 – 1998 1990 – 1998 1990 – 1998 FGLS 2SLS FGLS 2SLS ¤ ∆ENT 1.32** 14.26*** 1.16 14.02*** (2.01) (2.30) (1.07) (2.72) ¤ ∆R&D -.00 .19 -.72* -1.25* (-.01) (.28) (-1.74) (-1.81) ∆EDU .03*** .04*** .04*** .06*** (4.05) (3.46) (4.86) (3.36) ∆GEXP¤ -.36* -.33 -.70*** -.70 (-1.94) (-1.20) (-2.64) (-1.54) ∆CAP/L¤ -8.99*** -27.84*** -12.54*** -17.24*** (-2.66) (-4.13) (-5.00) (-3.65) DUMMY-90 -1.64** .69 (-2.01) (.54) Constant -.00 -.00 -3.28*** -.00 (-.82) (-1.54) (-3.47) (.32) Wald 29.81 54.33 P-value .00 .00 Exogenity test .00 .00 P>F .00 .00 2 Partial IV R .06 .10 Partial P-value .01 .00 Valid Instruments .26 .65 No. of obs. 247 237 118 110 Note: t-statistics in parentheses. *, ** and *** denote the significance at the 10, 5 and 1 percent level, respectively. Estimates for country dummies are not presented but can be supplied upon request. ¤ Variable has been divided by 1 000. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 25 Table 6: Results, FGLS and 2SLS regression techniques. Dependet variable: Five year moving average for growth in GDP. Instruments for ENT: AGE & UNEMP Reg 4 Reg 3 Reg 2 Reg 1 Dependent 1981 – 1998 1981 – 1998 1990 – 1998 1990 – 1998 variable: 2SLS FGLS 2SLS FGLS GROWTH ENT¤ 1.51*** 8.93*** .67 9.85** (3.62) (4.10) (1.29) (2.53) R&D¤ .57*** .63 .27 1.79** (2.85) (.79) (1.14) (2.10) EDU¤ 2.19*** 13.04*** .72 14.23*** (2.94) (3.41) (.87) (3.57) ¤ GEXP -.21* -.89** -.42*** -.63 (-1.65) (-2.06) (-2.86) (-1.30) ¤ D.CAP/L -17.95** -13.45 -27.35*** -17.37 (-2.52) (-.64) (-4.42) (-1.03) DUMMY-90 -.01*** -.02*** (-5.06) (-4.25) Constant -5.62 -.17*** .03* -.23** (-.44) (-2.78) (1.81) (-2.51) Wald 58.45 28.43 P-value .00 .00 Exogenity test .00 .01 P>F .00 .00 Partial IV R2 .22 .30 Partial P-value .00 .00 Valid Instruments .51 .25 No. of obs. 268 268 127 127 Note: t-statistics in parentheses. *, ** and *** denote the significance at the 10, 5 and 1 percent level, respectively. Estimates for country dummies are not presented but can be supplied upon request. ¤ Variable has been divided by 1 000. Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 26 Figure 1: Correlation between Growth and R&D 10% 8% Growth 6% 4% 2% 0% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% -2% -4% R&D Source: Acs, Audretsch, Braunerhjelm and Carlsson, 2005 Figure 2: Correlation between Growth and Entrepreneurship 10% 8% 6% Growth 4% 2% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% -2% -4% Source: Acs, Audretsch, Braunerhjelm and Carlsson, 2005 Entrepreneurship 20% 25% Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 27 Appendix Entrepreneurs and researchers engage in knowledge production in order to develop a new variety of a differentiated capital good that is used in final production. Different varieties of capital goods compete in a monopolistic competition fashion, meaning that they never become obsolete and earn an infinite stream of profits. As a side effect of their efforts, researchers and entrepreneurs produce new knowledge that will be publicly available for use in future capital good development. Equation (A1.1) describes the production of new knowledge, i.e. the evolution of the stock of knowledge, in relation to resources channelled into R&D ( LR ) and entrepreneurial activity ( LE ). A& = σ R LR + σ E Z ( LE ) A (A1.1) Entrepreneurial activities takes the following form Z ( LE ) = LγE , γ < 1 (A1.2) Production of final goods (Y) takes place using labor and the different varieties of capital-goods: Y = Lαm ∫ A 0 x (i )1−α di (A1.3) Given the symmetry of different varieties in (A1.3), demand for all varieties in equilibrium is symmetric, i.e. xi = x for all i ≤ A . We therefore rewrite (A1.3) as Y = Lαm Ax 1−α (A1.4) Assume that capital goods are produced with the same technology as final goods and that it takes κ units of capital goods to produce one unit of capital (See e.g. Chiang, 1992). Then it can be shown that K = κ Ax (A1.5) (A1.4) and (A1.5) then gives Y = Lαm Aα K 1−α κ α −1 (A1.6) Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 28 Labour market equilibrium implies that employment in R&D, entrepreneurship and final production equals total labor supply. L = Lm + L R + L E (A1.7) Finally, we assume that consumer preferences can be described by constant elasticity utility C1−θ U (C ) = 1−θ (A1.8) We form the Hamiltonian for the representative consumer HC = C1−θ + λA (σ R LR A + σ E LγE A ) + λK (κ α −1 Aα K 1−α ( L − LR − LE ) − C ) 1−θ (A1.9) Maximizing (A1.9) gives the first-order conditions λK = C −θ → λ&K C& = −θ C λK (A1.10) ∆= λAσ R A ( L − LR − LE ) λK α (A1.11) ∆= λAγσ E LγE−1 A ( L − LR − LE ) λK α (A1.12) where ∆ = (κ α −1 Aα K 1−α ( L − LR − LE ) ) . Combining (A1.11) and (A1.12) gives 1 ⎛ σ ⎞ γ −1 LE = ⎜ R ⎟ ⎝ γσ E ⎠ (A1.13) Thus, on a balanced growth path, where both R&D and entrepreneurship is profitable, the amount of resources engaged in entrepreneurial activities is independent of consumer preferences. As γ is less than 1, entry into entrepreneurship is increasing in σ E and decreasing in σ R . The maximization of (A1.9) also gives the equations of motion for the shadow prices of knowledge and capital as λ&K = − (1 − α ) K −1∆ + ρ λK λ&A = −σ R L0 − σ E LγE + σ R LE + ρ λA (A1.14) (A1.15) Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 29 where ρ denotes the subjective discount rate (rate of time preferences). On the balanced growth, knowledge, final production and consumption all grow at the same rate, while λ&K λ&A = . Combining (A1.10) and (A1.15) gives λK λA LR = 1 θσ R (σ ( L R 0 − LE ) + (1 − θ ) σ E LγE − ρ ) (A1.16) Combining (A1.16) with (A1.13) and (A1.1) gives 2γ −1 g= 1⎛ γ γ −1 γ −1 γ ⎜⎜ (σ R L − ρ ) − σ Rγ σ E + σ E γ θ⎝ γ −1 γ γ ⎞ ⎟ ⎠ σ γ −1 ⎟ R (A1.17) where it can be shown that the growth rate is increasing in L, σ R and σ E but decreasing in ρ . It should be noted that (A1.17) only applies when both R&D and entrepreneurship is profitable. The given specification implies that some entrepreneurial activity will always be profitable as long as A > 0 . This does not apply to R&D activities however. If R&D is not sufficiently profitable (following from A1.16), then we can combine (A1.10), (A1.12), (A1.14) and (A15) to derive the reduced-form growth rate. The resulting expression however provides little new insights and is not shown here.