Chiefs or Eagles? Expert Super Bowl 59 predictions

Super Bowl 59

Date: Sunday, 9 February Kick-off: 23:30 GMT

BBC coverage: Live text coverage on the BBC Sport website and app, and live radio commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds, plus post-game video highlights

The big game is here as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles at Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans. Who will emerge triumphant?

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs are chasing a historic three-peat; Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are looking to gain revenge for the Eagles.

Kansas City won a 38-35 thriller in 2023 in Arizona and something like that again will go down very nicely.

The Eagles generally have the better side, a star-studded roster, but the Chiefs have that winning mentality and have been grinding out close victories all season.

So who will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the Superdome on Sunday? We got our BBC NFL experts, some of the sport's top analysts and NFL players to make their predictions.

BBC columnist Phoebe Schecter: A lot of people are saying the Chiefs, but I've been going against the grain and saying the Eagles. I think it's going to be by a field goal.

The way these two teams play, the way these two defences play, they're going to be able to keep it tight, especially the Eagles defence not allowing explosive plays.

But the key will be how the Chiefs are going to stop Saquon Barkley. The top four running backs they've gone up against - Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard - they've kept them all to under 58 yards.

My head says I want to see the Chiefs make history, my heart says I love the Eagles - let someone else have a chance. And it's Saquon's birthday so, come on, give the man a present!

Score: Chiefs 24-27 Eagles

MVP: Saquon Barkley

Rob Staton, BBC Radio 5 Live NFL host: The Chiefs just keep finding a way to get the job done. How can you bet against Patrick Mahomes at this point? I think it'll be close and the Eagles will have a shot but Mahomes finds a way to win another Super Bowl at the end.

Score: Chiefs 30-27 Eagles

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Paul Higham, BBC Sport: These big games always come down to turnovers, third downs and the finer details - and coaches Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo have the Chiefs better prepared for those crunch moments than anyone else.

That's why they win all these close games - that and Patrick Mahomes, of course. So even with all the talent the Eagles have, I've got to stick with the Chiefs to create history.

Score: Chiefs 27-24 Eagles

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Ben Collins, BBC Sport: It may not be flashy, but it's no accident that the Chiefs keep winning tight games. With these teams so evenly matched, I expect another close one, with Patrick Mahomes again doing just enough.

Score: Chiefs 24-21 Eagles

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Four-time Super Bowl winner Rob Gronkowski: The key match-up is Philadelphia's defensive line against Kansas City's offensive line. If the Philadelphia Eagles want to win, they've got to put pressure on Patrick Mahomes.

They've got to make him worry in the pocket, they've got to make him fear that he shouldn't step up because he's going to get sacked. But I think the Chiefs will win 30-26.

Washington Commanders defensive lineman Efe Obada: Unfortunately, I've witnessed first hand that the Eagles can blow out teams. If the Chiefs can't contain Barkley, Hurts and the Eagles' receiving corps early, I think it's going to be very tough.

But Mahomes is a magician who can dig them out of that hole, so it's very hard to bet against him. I think it's 50-50.

Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker: I think the Eagles are going to win. I hate the Chiefs - you've got to hate the Chiefs as a Charger - so I can't see them winning. I think the D line for the Eagles is going to dominate and Saquon has looked unstoppable.

Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore: The name of the game is running the football. Philadelphia has a unique, effective, physical run game so Kansas City has to stop the run, first and foremost.

For the Eagles, they have to mix up the run and pass and let Saquon be Saquon. I've got it 30-27 Philly.

Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi: For the Chiefs, the key is stopping the run game. For the Eagles, it's stopping Patrick Mahomes and that link up he has with Travis Kelce. It should be exciting, I'm going 20-17 Chiefs.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr: I've got the Chiefs winning. If they keep the game close, Patrick Mahomes is going to handle the rest from there. If they go out there and play hard, do what they know they can do, then the Chiefs are going to bring it home.

Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett: I think the keys are going to be affecting the quarterback and stopping the run. It sounds simple - but with the running back the Eagles have got and the quarterbacks they've both got, that will be the key.

NFL analyst Jason Bell: You've got to dethrone Mahomes. Until somebody does that, you've got to back the Chiefs. Josh Allen went close but not close enough – and he's the MVP.

You just have to look at what Mahomes does on third downs and he rarely has turnovers. That's crucial, that's how you really assess a quarterback.

The Wire and Suits actor Wendell Pierce: Whoever turns the ball over will lose - it's protection of the ball, so whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. If there are no turnovers, then whoever has the ball last. I'm going for 27-31 [to the Eagles].

Sports broadcaster Taylor Rooks: I'm going with the Eagles. The Chiefs making history would be great, but I just love the story of Saquon Barkley, the journey he's been on, the phenomenal year he's had. I was there two years ago when the Eagles just lost out so I want to see them take it this time. 21-28.

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones: Candidly, if Philadelphia can pull it off... they're from our division... I don't like the Eagles, they're one of our biggest rivals, so I'll be raising up about three in the morning and screaming into my pillow. That's what you'll hear across New Orleans.