Long Range Forecast — October 4, 2024
Joker: Folie à Deux | Warner Bros. Pictures
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $115M – $145M
If released any other year except the one that saw the smash success of Deadpool & Wolverine, Warner Bros.’ Joker: Folie à Deux would be a virtual lock for the year’s highest-grossing R-rated debut. Even with Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $211.4M opening haul out of reach for the newer title, the Joker sequel should easily cross the $100M mark in its opening frame—an achievement that only Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 have boasted so far this year, with September release Beetlejuice Beetlejuice likely to get there in the interim.
Following Joker: Folie à Deux‘s world premiere at the Venice Film Festival and the subsequent first wave of reviews, critical reception has been mixed, with Rotten Tomatoes’ approval rating clocking in at 60 percent positive (among 43 reviews). That said, mixed reviews and a healthy dose of pre-release controversy didn’t exactly keep the first Joker movie (69% approval on Rotten Tomatoes) from racking up both commercial and awards season success; it won the Golden Lion (among other awards) when it premiered at Venice in 2019, then went on to a debut of $96.2M domestically ($335.4M domestic total) before capping off an improbably successful run with a slate of Academy Award nominations—including one for Best Picture—and a Best Actor win for star Joaquin Phoenix.
Expectations are that Joker: Folie à Deux will out-earn its predecessor over its opening weekend, with a high level of excitement following the success of the original, the presence of Lady Gaga, and a general lack of competition from other R-rated movies aimed at a young male demographic all emerging as factors. When the first Joker came out in the first week of October, fellow Warner Bros. release It Chapter 2 ($91.6M domestic opening, $211.6M domestic total) had come out only a month prior, whereas two-plus months stand between Joker: Folie à Deux and Deadpool & Wolverine. Additionally, Joker: Folie à Deux is one of only four comic book movies slated for release this year, with two, Venom: The Last Dance and Kraven the Hunter, yet to come out. By contrast, 2019 had seen the release of five comic book movies—including one DC Comics adaptation (Shazam!, $53.5M domestic opening, $140.4M domestic total) and one that would go on to be the second-highest domestic earner of all time (Avengers: Endgame, $357.1M domestic opening, $858.3M domestic total)—by the time Joker hit screens in early October.
Top Domestic Openings for R-Rated Comic Book Films
- Deadpool & Wolverine (2024)—$211.4M
- Deadpool (2016)—$132.4M
- Deadpool 2 (2018)—$125.5M
- Joker (2019)—$96.2M
- Logan (2017)—$88.4M
That said, the tone of Joker was quite different from those other 2019 comic book releases—just as the tone of Joker: Folie à Deux could turn out to be different from that of Joker. There’s been some back-and-forth in the run-up to the new film’s release as to whether it is or is not a musical, with director Todd Phillips hedging his bets when introducing the first footage from the film at CinemaCon—saying it “doesn’t veer too far from the first film” in that “it’s a film where music is an essential element”—and Lady Gaga more recently saying, at a Venice Film Festival press conference, that “I wouldn’t necessarily say that this is actually a musical. The way that music is used is to give the characters a way to express what they need to say, because the scene and dialogue wasn’t enough.” Arguments as to whether Joker: Folie à Deux should technically be considered a musical aside, the confusion could have a negative effect on repeat viewings if fans not expecting a (slight) departure in tone are turned off from seeing it a second time.
Tracking Updates [as of 9/6]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 9/13/24 | Speak No Evil | $15 – $20M | Universal |
| 9/13/24 | The Killer’s Game | $4 – $8M | Lionsgate |
| 9/20/24 | Transformers One | $40 – $50M | Paramount |
| 9/20/24 | Never Let Go | $7 – $10M | Lionsgate |
| 9/27/24 | The Wild Robot | $25 – $30M | Universal |
| 9/27/24 | Megalopolis | $4 – $8M | Lionsgate |
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