The No-Nonsense Guide to Science

The

NO-NONSENSE GUIDE

to

SCIENCE

‘Publishers have created lists of short books that discuss the questions that your average [electoral] candidate will only ever touch if armed with a slogan and a soundbite. Together [such books] hint at a resurgence of the grand educational tradition... Closest to the hot headline issues are The No-Nonsense Guides. These target those topics that a large army of voters care about, but that politicos evade. Arguments, figures and documents combine to prove that good journalism is far too important to be left to (most) journalists.’

Boyd Tonkin,

The Independent,

London

About the author

Jerome Ravetz is author of the classic study Scientific Knowledge and its Social Problems (1971, 1996). Formerly Reader in History and Philosophy of Science at Leeds, he also helped found the Council for Science and Society and is a pioneer in the area of science and safety. He is now an independent scholar and self-employed consultant working mainly on the problems of management of uncertainty in risks and environmental issues. His selected essays were published as The Merger of Knowledge with Power (1991) and with Silvio Funtowicz he co-authored Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy (1990). He is currently a Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization at the University of Oxford.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to my longstanding colleagues Silvio Funtowicz and Zia Sardar.

Other titles in the series

The No-Nonsense Guide to Globalization

The No-Nonsense Guide to Fair Trade

The No-Nonsense Guide to Climate Change

The No-Nonsense Guide to World History

The No-Nonsense Guide to Conflict and Peace

The No-Nonsense Guide to Human Rights

The No-Nonsense Guide to Animal Rights

About the New Internationalist

The New Internationalist is an independent not-for-profit publishing co-operative. Our mission is to report on issues of global justice. We publish informative current affairs and popular reference titles, complemented by world food, photography and gift books as well as calendars, diaries, maps and posters – all with a global justice world view.

If you like this No-Nonsense Guide you’ll also love the New Internationalist magazine. Each month it takes a different subject such as Trade Justice, Nuclear Power or Iraq, exploring and explaining the issues in a concise way; the magazine is full of photos, charts and graphs as well as music, film and book reviews, country profiles, interviews and news.

To find out more about the New Internationalist, visit our website at www.newint.org

The

NO-NONSENSE GUIDE

to

SCIENCE

Jerome Ravetz

The No-Nonsense Guide to Science

First published in the UK by

New Internationalist™ Publications Ltd

Oxford OX4 1BW, UK

www.newint.org

New Internationalist is a registered trade mark.

Cover image: Andrew Brookes/Corbis

© Jerome Ravetz

The right of Jerome Ravetz to be identified as author(s) of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission in writing of the Publisher.

Series editor: Troth Wells

Design by New Internationalist Publications Ltd.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data.

A catalogue for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 10: 1-904456-46-4

ISBN 13: 978-1904456-469

Foreword

MY PERCEPTION OF science at school was similar to that of most other students. Theories were considered to be unchanging and offer exact predictions. I had to learn by rote many sets of facts. Like the students that Edmondson and Novak interviewed much later in their 1993 study of American colleges*, I certainly had a ‘positivist’ approach to science: first there’s an idea, then a theory and then it becomes truth. Experiments were exercises that had a right answer which I failed to deliver most of the time.

Two things changed this. First, the experience of working in the laboratory of Dorothy Hodgkin on the structure of insulin in the 1960s, a project which she had started 30 years before. This was a real culture change. There were lots of debates about what we should do and what would work; nothing seemed obvious or certain.

But second, and more important, I became involved while working with Dorothy in local politics. As Chairman of the Planning Committee of Oxford City Council, I was required to make decisions when there were very few data and often what were available were uncertain and contradictory. I did not go into politics, but instead retired to the safe world of academic science. There I discovered that the art of ‘successful science’ was to identify problems that could be solved, and to ignore the others.

But that approach was soon challenged. My work took me to the world of medicines, to drug discovery. I suggested ways that putative drug targets might be inhibited. This was very exciting but it was only the start of drug development. Many drug candidates were abandoned because they showed signs of toxicity or even because they resembled other toxic molecules. In the face of an increasingly litigious society, drug candidates were withdrawn in clinical trials with the slightest danger signs. However, the uncertainties remained and many safe drugs proved to be dangerous in the long term.

A similar scene of uncertainty presented itself when I became involved in agricultural research policy in the early 1990s. Ministers assured us that their policy with respect to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) was based on ‘sound science’. I worried that we knew very little about the prion or hypothetical infectious particle, that we could not measure it in most body fluids and that we knew nothing very much about how it led to the spongiform encephalopathies.

More recently my experience as Chair of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution has reminded me that ignorance characterizes most environmental policy. What does happen to molecules from sprays, paints, pesticides, fire protectants and thousands of other useful chemicals when they are released from products into the environment? What will be the effect of new supersonic aircraft on climate change? What does happen to other trophic levels of the food chain and to the wider ecosystem when we fish out one species?

This book begins to address such questions. It does so in a direct and often provocative way. It challenges our hopes for economic progress from genomics, robotics, artificial intelligence, neuroscience and nano-technology in the coming years. It suggests that science may very often be characterized by malevolence and muddle. But it also recognizes that science can and will contribute to our health and wealth in the coming years. This is certainly essential reading for all aspiring scientists – and for some older ones too!

Professor Sir Tom Blundell FRS,

Department of Biochemistry,

University of Cambridge, England.

* Edmondson, K and Novak, J (1993) Cornell University study of American Colleges J Res SciTeaching. 30, 547-559.

CONTENTS

Foreword by Tom Blundell

Introduction

1 Science now

2 How science changed reality

3 Second thoughts from history

4 Little Science, Big Science, Mega Science

5 Scientific objectivity

6 Uncertainty

7 Science and democracy

8 People’s science

9 Science, its future and you

Contacts

Bibliography

Index

Introduction

FOR A LONG time science had been seen as the way to the real salvation of humanity; now it is also recognized as a possible instrument of our destruction. Making sense of this contradiction is the most important challenge for thinking people in our time. For this we will need to get beyond our inherited assumptions about science, its special sort of knowledge, and its interactions with society.

If we ask, ‘what is science?’ we discover a paradox. For ‘science’ is assumed to be objective knowledge, less dependent on personal opinion than any other sort of knowing. But the common answers to the question about science are enormously various, and they depend on the personal situation of the person involved.

For students, science is a huge pile of facts and techniques, requiring uncritical assimilation and mastery. For the general public, science offers the promise of curing disease. For the audiences of the media, science is a collection of intriguing or amusing ideas and gadgets. In earlier times, science could be a means of liberation from religious dogma or popular superstition.

For some, it now has negative aspects. It can be a means of gaining high profits or increasing the powers of the state. Animal experimentation can be condemned as insensitive or cruel. Tampering with life and reproduction violates our deepest sense of identity and sanctity.

Various science-based technologies are criticized as dangerous – nuclear energy or GM crops, for example – or as instruments of oppression, in the case of bio-prospecting or bio-piracy. And our total science-based industrial civilization shows strong signs of fouling its nest in the biosphere, with catastrophic consequences that might already be too late to avert.

Any reader will have their own reactions to the elements of this list of opinions. None of these partial views of science is simply right or wrong. If we are to bring science successfully into the next phase of its history, we will need to cope with this diversity, and to comprehend its meaning. This book is designed to help with the development of that understanding. It looks at science as it is now, and shows how we got here. It explains how science can be genuine objective knowledge, and at the same time be conditioned by uncertainty and values. It also shows how our knowledge is selected and shaped by processes that reflect those values and the commitments behind them. And it highlights ignorance, which paradoxially is a crucial element in our understanding of the role of science.

In general, it promotes a ‘post-normal’ approach to science, which takes account of the uncertainty and value-loading that is now so pervasive. Further, it scrutinizes science from the point of view of modern democratic society. And finally it provides a list of questions for the reader, to help them create their own vision of science.

Recognizing the great achievements of science of the past and present, and the continuing great excitement and promise of the scientific endeavor, this No-Nonsense Guide aims to provide the elements of a new perspective so that the promise of science can continue to be fulfilled.

Jerome Ravetz

Oxford

Glossary of some of the terms used in this book

Genomics – the study and manipulation of life at the genetic level. A ‘gene’ is the unit of heredity; it is usually a component of the cell nucleus, acting with other genes and the intra-cellular environment.

Robotics – the technology that deals with the design, construction, operation and application of robots.

Artificial intelligence – the field of study that designs computers that can simulate or surpass human intelligent behavior.

Neuroscience – the science of the nervous system, especially the brain. We can now ‘see’ brain activity in real-time. The powers over consciousness that are being created raise the most far-reaching ethical issues.

Nanotechnology – technology that operates on a scale of a few nanometers, that is, a few billionths of a meter. It is potentially applicable to all fields of physical and life technology. But there are also very serious potential hazards of many sorts.

GRAINN – an acronym of all the above.

SHEE – the sciences of safety, health and environment, plus ethics.

M&M – malevolence and muddle, or the potential for misuse of science and for making mistakes within it.

Post-normal science – the sort of inquiry, usually issue-driven, where the facts are uncertain, values are in dispute, stakes are high and decisions are urgent. Its core ideas include an ‘extended peer community’ and the recognition of a plurality of legitimate perspectives on every issue.

The Precautionary Principle – advocates measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize adverse effects of scientific progress where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage. Lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures.

1 Science now

Farewell to the old classifications, such as physics, chemistry, biology. Welcome to new ones, like GRAINN – short for genomics, robotics,