Renewable energy targets in 2022: A guide to design
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Renewable energy targets in 2022 - International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA
© IRENA 2022
Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.
ISBN: 978-92-9260-480-6
eBook ISBN: 978-92-9260-505-6
Citation: IRENA (2022), Renewable energy targets in 2022: A guide to design, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
ABOUT IRENA
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi (Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre) and Ute Collier, and authored by Diala Hawila, Faran Rana, Abdullah Abou Ali and Arslan Khalid (IRENA), Costanza Strinati and Sufyan Diab (former IRENA colleagues), Miquel Muñoz Cabré (Stockholm Environment Institute), David Jacobs (IET Consulting) and Toby Couture (E3 Analytics), with valuable contributions from Adrian Whiteman, Nazik Elhassan, Sonia Rueda Silva, Emanuele Bianco, Jinlei Feng, Imen Gherboudj, and Gerardo Escamilla (IRENA), Paola Pérez (Tufts University) and Michelle Benaderet (Boston University).
Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Aleksandra Prodan, Álvaro López-Peña, Arieta Gonelevu Rakai, Badariah Yosiyana, Binu Parthan, Camilo Ramirez Isaza, Elizabeth Njoki Wanjiru, Ines Jacob, Joong Yeop Lee, José Torón, Kamlesh Dookayka, Kamran Siddiqui, Karanpreet Kaur, Margaret Suh, Nadia Mohammed, Petya Icheva, Paul Komor, Simon Benmarraze, Toyo Kawabata, Wilson Matekenya and Zoheir Hamedi. Valuable external review was provided by Katarina Uherova Hasbani (AESG). The report was edited by Justin French-Brooks. Cover image credits: shutterstock.com and freepic.com.
IRENA is grateful for the generous support for this report provided by the Walloon government.
For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org.
Available for download: www.irena.org/publications.
DISCLAIMER
This publication and the material herein are provided as is
. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.
The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.
CONTENTS
FIGURES
TABLES
BOXES
ABBREVIATIONS
SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS
INTRODUCTION
1NDCS AND OTHER COMMITMENTS TOWARDS CLIMATE OBJECTIVES
1.1 Momentum for global climate action and updates on NDCs since COP26
1.2 Net zero targets and commitments
1.3 Fossil fuel phase-out (phase-down) targets
2RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL PLANS
2.1 Trends in renewable energy targets
2.2 Quantification and analysis of renewable energy targets in the power sector
3KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR TARGET SETTING
3.1 Objectives and context for renewable energy target setting
3.2 The statistical basis for renewable energy targets
3.3 The scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses
3.4 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as a share of a mix
3.5 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as an absolute amount
3.6 Technology specificity of targets
3.7 Modalities for target implementation
4CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
ANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY
ANNEX 2: RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL ENERGY PLANS
REFERENCES
FIGURES
Figure S1 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022)
Figure S2 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping
Figure S3 Global cumulative renewable power, installed capacity, historical trends and future projections
Figure S4 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping, and technology
Figure S5 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting
Figure 1.1 CO 2 emission trajectories based on COP26 announcements and the WETO 1.5°C Scenario
Figure 1.2 NDCs by ambition and share of global emissions (as of 16 October 2022)
Figure 1.3 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022)
Figure 1.4 Companies net zero targets by status as of August 2022
Figure 2.1 Role of targets at different stages of policy-making
Figure 2.2 The role of renewable energy in the energy transition
Figure 2.3 Hydrogen strategies, including those in preparation as of June 2022
Figure 2.4 Total electrolyser 2030 targets, globally, as of September 2022
Figure 2.5 Number of cities with renewable energy targets, by region as of the end of 2021
Figure 2.6 Companies with 100% renewable energy targets by sector, as of August 2022
Figure 2.7 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping and technology
Figure 2.8 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030, by technology, total target capacity (left) and remaining target capacity (right)
Figure 2.9 Progress made on aggregated targets for 2030, by region, as of 2021
Figure 2.10 Global cumulative installed capacity of renewable power, historical trends and future projections
Figure 2.11 Global renewable power installed capacity in 2021, targeted capacity by 2030 and level needed as per IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario
Figure 2.12 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping
Figure 3.1 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting
Figure 3.2 Percentage of population with access to electricity and clean cooking to reach the targets set in SDG7
Figure 3.3 Factors affecting future electricity demand
Figure 3.4 Spectrum of renewable energy targets
Figure 3.5 Evolution of renewable energy targets in the European Union
Figure 3.6 Data needed before the setting of the target, while monitoring the progress and after the achievement of the target
TABLES
Table 1.1 Jurisdictions with net zero pledges, divided into high emitters (G20), low emitters (LDCs and SIDS) and others according to the Net Zero Tracker by October 2022
Table 1.2 Coal-phase out commitments and plans of selected countries
Table 3.1 Decision on the statistical basis of targets
Table 3.2 Decision on the scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses
Table 3.3 Decision on the indicator for share of total energy targets – TPES or TFEC
Table 3.4 Decision on the indicator for share of electricity – generation or installed capacity
Table 3.5 Decision on the indicator for the share of renewables in end-use targets
Table 3.6 Decision on the indicator for power targets - Capacity based vs. output based
Table 3.7 Decision on the indicator for green gas targets – output or capacity/unit based
Table 3.8 Decision on technology specificity of targets
Table 3.9 Indicators for achieving China’s 14 th FYP
Table 3.10 Decision on long-term and short-term targets
Table 3.11 Examples of data collection objectives and data needs
BOXES
Box 1.1 Net zero targets announced by companies as of August 2022
Box 1.2 Six-month progress update on South Africa’s Just Transition Partnership
Box 2.1 The main functions of renewable energy targets
Box 2.2 Ecuador’s targets and policy measures to transition to electric cooking
Box 2.3 IRENA’s Beyond Food initiative: Clean cooking and climate action through electrification
Box 2.4 Renewable energy targets at the company level – the RE100
Box 2.5 The US government’s socio-economic aims for the deployment of renewables
Box 2.6 Methodology for quantifying renewable power targets and assumptions for major renewable energy players
Box 3.1 I ncrease in ambition of renewable energy targets in the European Union REPowerEU
Box 3.2 Potential socio-economic impacts of the energy transition in Africa with a comprehensive policy framework
Box 3.3 IRENA’s work on resource assessment
Box 3.4 The European Union 2020 renewable energy targets
Box 3.5 The United Kingdom’s Net Zero Strategy
Box 3.6 China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan
Box 3.7 Compliance with renewable energy targets and renewable portfolio standards in the European Union, the United States and the Philippines
ABBREVIATIONS
CSP concentrated solar power
ETS emissions trading system
EV electric vehicle
FCV fuel cell vehicle
FIT feed-in tariff
GIS geographic information system
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
JETS Just Energy Transition Partnership
LCOE levelised cost of electricity
LDC least developed countries
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
MENA Middle East and North Africa
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
PV photovoltaic
RPS renewable portfolio standards
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SIDS small island developing states
SWH solar water heater
TFEC total final energy consumption
TPES total primary energy supply
WETO World energy transitions outlook
UNITS OF MEASURE
Gt gigatonne
GW gigawatt
GWh gigawatt hour
kg kilogram
kt kilotonne
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt hour
Mtce million tonnes of coal equivalent
MW megawatt