Pakistan: The Search for Stability

PAKISTAN

THE SEARCH FOR STABILITY

PAKISTAN

THE SEARCH FOR STABILITY

Edited by

MALEEHA LODHI

HURST & COMPANY, LONDON

Copyright © 2024 Maleeha Lodhi and the Contributors

All rights reserved

First published in the United Kingdom in 2024 by

C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd.,

New Wing, Somerset House, Strand,

London, WC2R 1LA

Printed in the United Kingdom

Distributed in the United States, Canada and Latin America by Oxford University Press, 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.

The right of Maleeha Lodhi and the Contributors to be identified as the authors of this publication is asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988.

A Cataloguing-in-Publication data record for this book is available from the British Library.

This book is printed using paper from registered sustainable and managed sources.

ISBN: 9781911723776

www.hurstpublishers.com

For my family, who have been a constant source

of encouragement and support.

May my grandson, Arhaan Sharwani see a

Pakistan that realises the hopes and aspirations

of its people.

CONTENTS

Contributors

Abbreviations

Notes

References

Index

CONTRIBUTORS

MALEEHA LODHI served as Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN (2014–2019), was twice Ambassador to the US (1993–1996 and 1999–2002) and served for five years as High Commissioner to the UK (2003–2008). She was a member of the UN Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Affairs from 2001–2005. Her extensive experience in diplomacy is matched by a career in the media. She was a founding editor of The News, one of Pakistan’s leading English dailies and editor of The Muslim. She has been a Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington (2009–2010) and a Fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School (2008).

Dr Lodhi is the recipient of the President’s award of Hilal-e-Imtiaz for Public Service. She also received an Honorary Fellowship from the London School of Economics (LSE) in 2004 and an Honorary Degree of Doctor of Letters from London’s Metropolitan University in 2005. She taught Politics and Political Sociology at the LSE from 1980–85. In 1994, Time magazine nominated her as one of a hundred people in the world who will help shape the 21st century, the only one from Pakistan. Lodhi is the author of two collections of essays: Pakistan’s Encounter with Democracy and The External Challenge. She also edited the book, Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis State (London: C. Hurst, 2011). She received her PhD in Politics and BSc (Econ) from the LSE.

DUSHKA H. SAIYID is a former Professor of History at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. She was the chair of the History Department, President of the Academic Staff Association, and the Controller of Examinations. Some of these positions overlapped in the period 2002–2004. Since 2011, she has been the editor of Youlin magazine, a print and digital magazine which is the only bilingual (English and Chinese) online cultural magazine published from Pakistan. Dr Saiyid was the Allama Iqbal Fellow at Wolfson College, Cambridge from 2004–2007. She is the author of two books, Muslim Women of the British Punjab: From Seclusion to Politics (Macmillan, UK, 1980; Exporting Communism to India: Why Moscow Failed (NIHCR, Islamabad, 1995). Currently she is working on the issue of the Accession of Princely States.

SALMAN AKRAM RAJA is among Pakistan’s top constitutional lawyers. He is an advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan and has been practicing law since 1992. During the course of his practice, he has appeared in several cases of fundamental constitutional importance and impact. They include the Saima Waheed Case (1997) that determined the right of Muslim women to enter into marriage without the consent of a male guardian. The case of Dr Mubashir Hasan (2010) that was led by Raja declared an attempt by General Pervez Musharraf to foreclose criminal proceedings through a presidential ordinance unconstitutional. In the case of Air Marshal Asghar Khan (2012) in which he was counsel, the Supreme Court held the COAS and DG ISI to be culpable for interfering in the 1990 election to block the return of Benazir Bhutto to power.

Raja has taught constitutional and corporate law at the Lahore University of Management Sciences and Government College University, Lahore. He is a graduate of University of Cambridge (BA) and received his LLM from the University of London and the Harvard Law School.

AHMED BILAL MEHBOOB is the founder of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) and has over twenty-five years of experience in senior management positions in corporate and development sectors in planning and implementation of projects in the field of parliamentary development, strengthening democratic institutions, monitoring of parliamentary performance, quality of democracy, assessment of quality of governance and local government reforms. Youth is another area of focus for him through which the Youth Parliament of Pakistan was founded in 2004. The current 18th Youth Parliament has members from each of the country’s 266 National Assembly constituencies in addition to Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Overseas Pakistanis. Mehboob has spearheaded a non-partisan political research initiative from the platform of PILDAT and facilitated the formation of Dialogue, Research, and Policy Groups on areas such as civil-military Relations, centre-province Relations, and electoral reforms.

He holds a BSc degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore. As an engineer, he has served outside Pakistan in the Middle East and the US. As a student activist, Mehboob was elected as the President of the Engineering University Students Union from 1971 to 1972 and also served as the Chairman of the Lahore Students Council in 1972.

UZAIR YOUNUS is Director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center in Washington, DC. He also is the Vice President at The Asia Group, where he advises global companies on developing and executing strategies to align their business strategy with public good needs across South Asia. He also supports companies develop strategic initiatives and communications strategies to credibly increase their reputation in key markets. He previously served as manager for engagement and strategy at Dhamiri, an innovation firm helping companies align their business competencies with public good needs. He was also a director at Albright Stonebridge Group’s South Asia practice. In this role, he helped clients develop strategies for long-term growth in the region and assess political and economic developments. Uzair regularly publishes articles on South Asian politics and economic issues for Profit Magazine and Dawn, and has been featured on various news outlets, including Bloomberg, CNN, and CNBC. He has a BS in economics and finance from Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts and an MA in law and diplomacy with a concentration in economic policy and South Asia from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.

SALMAN SHAH is a former Finance Minister of Pakistan and Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance, Economic Affairs, and Statistics from 2004–2008. His tenure saw an average GDP growth of over seven per cent, a major boost in domestic and foreign investment, significant public debt reduction, privatization, liberalization, and deregulation of the economy. Amongst his other appointments, he has served as the Chairman Privatization Commission, Member, Board of Directors of the State Bank of Pakistan, Chairman, ECO bank, Board Member PIA, Chairman Lahore Stock Exchange, and Pakistan Mercantile Exchange. He has taught finance at Lahore University of Management Sciences, University of Toronto, as well as the Michigan Business School and Indiana university.

KHURRAM HUSAIN is a business and economy journalist and analyst based in Karachi. He writes for Dawn along with a wide range of international publications. He has worked in television and print media over a sixteen-year career as a journalist. Before entering journalism, he taught Sociology at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. In 2013, he was the Pakistan Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC where he carried out research on the history of Pakistan’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund.

MURTAZA SYED is Head of Ecosystem at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in Beijing. He has more than twenty years of experience in macroeconomic research and policy making. He served as Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan during 2020–2023. At the central bank, he oversaw monetary policy, research, and human resources. He also served as Acting Governor during May-August 2022.

Prior to his stint at the State Bank, he worked with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for sixteen years. He reviewed IMF programs and surveillance of emerging markets and advanced economies, including Australia, Canada, Colombia, Euro Area, Germany, Greece, Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. He also served as IMF Deputy Resident Representative in China during 2010-2014 and as IMF mission chief to Macao.

He began his career in the late 1990s as a Senior Policy Analyst at the Islamabad-based Human Development Center under former Finance Minister of Pakistan, Mahbub ul Haq. Later, he worked for the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a London-based public policy think tank, where he conducted research projects on business investment and employment behaviour, as well as evaluations of Latin American antipoverty programs. Murtaza has a PhD in economics from Oxford University (Nuffield College). He has published papers on a variety of macroeconomic issues, including fiscal and monetary policy, financial stability, economic crises, investment, demographics, poverty, and inequality.

ISHRAT HUSAIN is Professor Emeritus at the Institute of Business Administration. He started his career in the Civil Service of Pakistan and held managerial and policy making positions in the Government. In 1979, he was selected by the World Bank and during in the next two decades held various positions including Director, Central Asian Republics; Director, Poverty and Social Policy Department; Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific and Africa regions; Chief of Debt and international Finance Division, and Resident Representative in Nigeria. In 2005, he completed two terms as Governor of State Bank of Pakistan and steered the Banking sector reforms and spearheaded the restructuring and strengthening of the Central Bank. He was Chairman, National Commission for Government between 2006–2008 and produced a comprehensive report on Civil Service reform. As Dean and Director of the Institute of Business Administration between 2008–2016, he led the transformation of the institute into a university. He spent a year as Public Policy Fellow at Woodrow Wilson Center in 2016–2017. More recently (2018–2021) he was Adviser to the Prime Minister on Institutional Reforms and Austerity and produced several reports including on State Owned Enterprises. He was awarded Hilal-e-Imtiaz in 2003 and Nishan-e-Imtiaz in 2016. The Banker Magazine declared him the Central Bank Governor of the year for Asia in 2005 and the Asian Banker Magazine conferred a Lifetime Achievement Award in 2006.

Dr Husain is the author of twenty-four books and monographs, including The Economy of an Elitist State (OUP, 2019), Governing the Ungovernable (OUP, 2022), The Economy of Modern Sindh (OUP, 2019) and Development Pathways: India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh 1947-2022 (2023). He received his master’s in development economics from Williams College, and doctorate in Economics from Boston University.

ADIL NAJAM is the President of the World Wildlife Fund International. He is the founding Dean Emeritus of Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies where he has also been Professor of International Relations and Earth and Environment. Earlier, he served as the Vice Chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences in Pakistan and currently is also a Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford’s Wolfson College and the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies. He also serves as senior advisor to the Jinnah Centre for Character and Leadership (Pakistan).

Najam holds a PhD and two master’s from MIT, a Specialization in Negotiation from the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, and an engineering degree from the University of Engineering and Technology in Lahore, Pakistan. He was a convening lead author for the Third and Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In 2008, he was invited by the UN Secretary-General to serve on the UN Committee on Development (CDP). He is author and editor of 9 books and more than 100 scholarly papers on global environmental policy, sustainable development, human development, and technology policy. He has served as a Trustee on the international board of the Asia Foundation, as Chair of the Luc Hoffmann Institute, and as Board Chair of the South Asia Network of Development and Environmental Economics (SANDEE).

TARIQ BANURI is Research Professor of Economics, University of Utah. He studies the political economy of development, sustainability, and climate change, including operational and institutional design issues as well as the underlying sociology of knowledge and conflicts over meaning. From May 2018 to 2022 he served as Chairman of Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission, the apex body responsible for funding, accreditation, regulation, and capacity building of Pakistan’s universities. He introduced reforms in regulation, funding, quality standards, accountability mechanisms, and capacity building activities, and advocated stronger measures for universities against ill-advised governmental interference.

Prior to taking this position, he served as Director, Division of Sustainable Development, United Nations, New York, and the founding Executive Director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute Islamabad. He has contributed to the design of several national institutions and international networks and served on key policy and research entities and UN Committees. He has also contributed as a coordinating lead author to the IPCC, which received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

MUHAMMAD AMIR RANA is the Director of the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank. He has worked extensively on issues related to counterterrorism, counter-extremism, and internal and regional security and politics. Rana has published widely in national and international journals, professional publications, and magazines. He writes regularly for Dawn and serves as the editor of Pakistan Annual Security Report, and PIPS’ research journal, Conflict and Peace Studies.

KHAWAR MUMTAZ was Chairperson, National Commission on the Status of Women with the status of Minister of State from 2013 to 2019. She was CEO of Shirkat Gah-Women’s Resource Centre until December 2012, a leading research, advocacy, and capacity building organization working for women’s empowerment.

During her tenure as Chairperson of the National Commission on the Status of Women, she represented Pakistan and led official delegations to the UN Commission on the Status of Women annual meetings in NY, UN General Assembly Special Session on ICPD+20, in UNESCAP Session of Beijing+20 Review (where she was elected as Conference Rapporteur), and co-hosted Regional Conference of South Asian Women’s Commissions and women’s parliamentary caucuses in Nepal. She was the official delegate to the Commonwealth National Women Machineries meetings in NY (2013 and 2015). She led the delegation to the CEDAW Committee hearing in Geneva and presented the Country Report (2013).

She is the author of Women of Pakistan; Two Steps Forward One Step Back? (Zed Books, 1989) and co-author of Pakistan: Tradition and Change (Oxfam, Oxford, 1996). She co-edited with Dr Kumar Rupesinghe, Internal Conflicts in South Asia (Sage, London 1996) and has contributed chapters to numerous books.

JAMIL AHMAD is Director UN Environment Programme in New York. He has diverse and rich experience in environmental and climate policies. As a multilateral diplomat for his country, a lead climate change negotiator for the G-77 countries and an international civil servant at the UN, he has been an active contributor to the complex processes of climate change and International Environmental Governance for more than two decades.

In 2008, Ahmad joined UNEP as the Secretary of the Governing Bodies based in Nairobi, Kenya (2008–14) where he led the organization of the sessions of the UN Environment Assembly and served as the focal point of UN Environment’s external relations. A senior career diplomat, Jamil Ahmad entered the Foreign Service of Pakistan in 1986 and worked in several duty stations across Asia, Europe, and Africa.

He participated in numerous important UN meetings, including the World Summit on Sustainable Development, sessions of the UN General Assembly, the Commission of Sustainable Development, the UN Environment Assembly, Governing Councils of FAO and other UN bodies. He was lead negotiator on Climate Change for the Group of 77 & China, representing more than 130 countries in climate change talks in 2007 under UNFCCC.

He holds a master’s in political science from Peshawar University.

ZEBA SATHAR an internationally recognized demographer, who has been heading the Population Council as Country Director, Islamabad Office since April 2002. She has a PhD in Medical Demography from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a master’s degree in demography from the London School of Economics. With over fifteen years of experience at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, she has also worked with the World Bank, the World Fertility Survey, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

In March 2006, Dr Sathar was awarded the Tamgha-i-Imtiaz by the President of Pakistan in recognition of her services to the development sector in the country. She served on the Governing Council of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population from 2002–2009, was a co-lead of FP2020’s Performance, Monitoring and Accountability working group in 2013–2016, and has served as a Commissioner on the Guttmacher-Lancet Commission Report on Accelerate progress—sexual and reproductive health and rights for all.

RIAZ MOHAMMAD KHAN served as the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan from 2005 to 2008. He joined the foreign service in 1969 and served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to China (2002–5), Belgium and EU (1994–98), and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (1992–95). He is fluent in the Chinese language, which he learned while serving as the Third Secretary in the Pakistan Embassy from 1969 to 1973. He served as Director General for Afghanistan and Soviet Union from 1986 to 1991. From 2011 to 2013, he was Special Envoy for Afghanistan and India.

Riaz Khan is the author of two books, Untying the Afghan Knot: Negotiating Soviet Withdrawal (Duke University Press, 1991) and Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism, and Resistance to Modernity (John Hopkins University Press and Woodrow Wilson Press, 2011). He has a master’s in mathematics and has taught Quantum Physics at Punjab University from 1965–69.

AIZAZ AHMAD CHAUDHRY served in the Foreign Service of Pakistan for thirty-seven years, rising to the rank of Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary. He also served as Ambassador to the US and the Netherlands, as Foreign Office Spokesman, and Deputy Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations in New York. As Director General for South Asia and later as Foreign Secretary, he remained closely associated with the peace process with India. After retirement from the Foreign Service, Ambassador Chaudhry served as the Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad for four and a half years. Currently, he is the Chairman of Sanober Institute, an independent think tank based in Islamabad. He has authored two books and numerous research articles. His latest book is a memoir titled Diplomatic Footprints (Sang-e-Meel, 2021) that discusses the intricacies of foreign policy making in Pakistan. Ambassador Chaudhry holds master’s in international relations from Tufts University, Massachusetts, and a Bachelor of Science from Punjab University, Lahore.

SADIA SULAIMAN is Assistant Professor at the Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. She is a PhD in Strategic Studies from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Having two decades of experience in both teaching and research, she has remained affiliated in various roles with the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, UNDP, DFID, GIZ Germany, Kings College London (KCL), FATA Study Cell, University of Peshawar, Pakistan; FATA Research Centre (FRC), Islamabad, Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Coffey International, USIP and Society for Skill Training and Development (SSTD), Pakistan.

Her areas of expertise include post-conflict stabilization, countering terrorism and violent extremism, insurgencies and counterinsurgencies, women, peace and conflict; State and Peace building in fragile states; Security Sector Reform, Peace and Development Nexus, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), US politics and foreign policy. She has conducted field research in the Newly Merged Tribal Districts and KP and produced several policy reports. She has authored numerous research articles in national and international journals. Dr Sulaiman is also the author of a book Post-Conflict Reconstruction: From Extremism to Peaceful Co-Existence (SAGE, 2020).

ZAHID HUSSAIN is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former correspondent for The Times of London and The Wall Street Journal. He also has covered Pakistan and Afghanistan for several other international publications, including Newsweek, Associated Press, The Economist and India Today. He is regular columnist for Dawn, Pakistan’s leading English language newspaper.

Hussain was Pakistan scholar at Woodrow Wilson Center (2011–12). He has also been a Visiting Fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge (1999) and at Henry Stimson Center, Washington (1994).

He has authored several books including Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam (2007), The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (2010), No-Win War: The Paradox of US-Pakistan Relations in Afghanistan’s Shadow (OUP, 2022), and Face to Face with Benazir (2023). Frontline Pakistan was declared book of the year (2007) by the Wall Street Journal. He has also contributed chapters in several books including Pakistan and the Nuclear Bomb (1999) and Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis State (2011). He has worked as a consultant to the World Bank and Department for International Development (DFID).

ABBREVIATIONS

INTRODUCTION

Over a decade ago, I edited a book titled Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis State, driven by the hope that the country would free itself from its crisis-ridden state and pave the way for economic and political stability. Underlying this hope were the socio-economic changes that had been occurring, offering an opportunity to break from an unedifying past of political turmoil and economic instability. The volume was also an effort to correct the flawed perspective of several outsiders who had mischaracterized the country, portraying it in an excessively negative light. The book examined Pakistan’s politics, history, society, economy, and foreign policy with the standpoint that its various challenges were surmountable.

This book advances that conversation in light of more recent developments and events. In its 76th year of independence, the country still grapples with a state of crisis. Today, it faces a ‘polycrisis’ where multiple overlapping crises—governance, economic, political, security, demographic—converge to reinforce each other, presenting an overall challenge more formidable than any single crisis. At 76, Pakistan finds itself at an inflection point, locked in a state of instability, with its promising potential remaining unrealized.

While it is true that Pakistan has weathered many storms and crises in the past, relying on its underlying resilience to overcome challenges, the systemic issues facing the nation today are fundamentally different. They are the cumulative consequences of decades of misgovernance and squandered opportunities. These problems can no longer be deferred. To move forward and embark on a path of economic growth, progress, and prosperity, all these challenges must be addressed simultaneously, not in isolation from one another.

However, political leaders, both past and present, have failed to adopt a long-term perspective or provide a vision or roadmap for the country’s future. In reality, both civilian and military governments have spent much of their time in crisis management or power-preservation mode, deferring meaningful reforms and seeking short-term, pain-free, expedient ‘solutions’ rather than embracing a longer-term approach to address both urgent and important matters. This approach has left the country’s structural problems—economic, institutional, and social—unaddressed and has dampened optimism about the future among the people.

Pakistan’s pursuit of stability has been hampered by a lack of governance, rule without law, political disruptions, visionless leadership, and, of course, headwinds from a volatile neighbourhood that has presented enduring security dilemmas. This has severely impeded its development and meant that the vision of the country’s founding fathers remains unfulfilled.

The choice it faces today is stark: to either remain mired in a quagmire of weak governance, dysfunctional politics, economic stagnation, internal security threats, an education deficit, uncontrolled population growth, and eroding public faith in state institutions, or to chart a new course by improving governance, undertaking wide-ranging reforms, and making public welfare—rather than the interests of a narrow elite—central to the enterprise of governance. This choice will determine the fate and fortunes of the country.

Several trends can be leveraged to break from the past. These include the emergence of a wide consensus and common stake among political actors to ensure democratic continuity, with the military being part of this consensus despite its outsized role in the country’s affairs. The second trend is the gradual transformation of the old power structure due to the emergence of several new forces—such as a free and energetic media and a more diverse and active civil society. An effective ‘watchdog’ has emerged from within civil society, working in tandem with the media. This informal coalition is holding governments accountable, subjecting executive actions to oversight, and helping to set priorities and recommend policy courses for national problems that political parties have singularly failed to address.

A third trend is the confluence of these factors with the rise of a larger, more assertive middle class enthusiastic about engaging in politics and seeking a bigger political voice. Increasing urbanization, a shift in the centre of economic power from the countryside to the cities, and a more ‘connected’ society powered by modern communications are opening space for challenges to patronage-based and hereditary politics, creating conditions for better governance. Technology has empowered citizens, making them more aware of and assertive about their rights. All of this can help shape a hopeful future for the country.

This volume brings together a group of distinguished professionals, all of whom believe that Pakistan can change course, that its problems can be solved, and challenges can be overcome to put the country on the road to recovery and renewal. Drawing on their vast expertise, they offer ideas and policy options on how to achieve this outcome by making governance responsive to the people. The collection of essays presents a diversity of views and perspectives, but all the contributors are convinced that change can only take place through bold reforms, which they identify in the chapters they have contributed. They also agree that Pakistanis themselves must reclaim and reimagine the country to extricate it from its present quagmire.

The issues discussed in this volume cover almost the entire gamut of challenges the country confronts and the opportunities they present that need to be seized. Topics such as governance, civil-military relations, economic revival, internal and external security, the youth bulge, human development, climate change, religious extremism, foreign relations, and the role of women are all examined along with ways to deal with them. The common theme running through almost all the chapters is that a stronger state, responsive to the people and not merely its privileged elites, will emerge only by implementing a reform agenda that addresses Pakistan’s systemic and fundamental challenges to guarantee its long-term stability.

Chapter 1, by Dushka Saiyid, delves into M.A. Jinnah’s pivotal role in the formation of Pakistan. It traces the evolution of his thinking, emphasizing the shift from being an ‘ambassador of Hindu-Muslim Unity’ within the Congress party to advocating and campaigning for an independent homeland for Muslims. The chapter explores the intellectual influences that shaped Jinnah’s views, highlighting his emphasis on education and the emancipation of women. This essential opening chapter sheds light on the inception of the idea of Pakistan and provides insights into the motivations behind its creation.

In Chapter 2, Salman Akram Raja examines the fragility of democracy and the constitutional process in Pakistan over 75 years of statehood. The analysis focuses on the struggle for democracy and constitutional adherence, particularly through the lens of the superior judiciary. Raja explores the role of the military and the historical context influencing judicial interventions. The chapter aims to elucidate how competing narratives impact the constitutional process, asserting that the functioning of formal structures of constitutional democracy is influenced by the military’s notions of the national interest.

In Chapter 3, I explore the factors contributing to Pakistan’s current multitude of serious and interconnected challenges, as well as its history of crisis cycles. I contend that governance failures and missed opportunities have defined much of the country’s political history, marked by endemic political instability swinging between military interventions and weak civilian rule. Reform-resistant political and military elites hindered development, while global and regional geopolitical shifts diverted attention from domestic issues. The recurring pattern of external overreach and internal underreach has left Pakistan at a crossroads, requiring it to address six fault lines for a departure from its unstable past. The chapter concludes by underscoring the necessity of a ‘national compact’ encompassing political agreement on five core policy areas: economic reforms, consensual democracy, the role of the military, population control, and addressing the education deficit.

In Chapter 4, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, analyses Pakistan’s tumultuous history of parliamentary politics. He argues that parliamentary democracy became Pakistan’s destiny long before its creation, shaped by experiences gained during colonial rule. Mehboob scrutinizes the role of the legislature over seven decades, focusing on constitution-making efforts and disruptions caused by military interventions. Drawing from his study, he provides recommendations to enhance parliamentary democracy.

In Chapter 5, Uzair Yunus examines the influential role of Pakistan’s military in governance, politics, and the economy. The chapter traces the developments that have expanded the military’s influence, particularly in the hybrid democracy. Yunus explores how this system enables the military to strengthen its economic impact and provides recommendations for limiting this influence. He suggests security sector reforms and pursuing an agenda to reduce the military’s role in Pakistan’s political economy, citing potential negative consequences.

In Chapter 6, Salman Shah, outlines a roadmap for extracting Pakistan from its persistent economic crisis. He identifies three major economic turning points in the past half-century that have shaped the current situation and undermined economic sustainability. These turning points involved myopic decisions contrary to emerging global realities, resulting in a highly bureaucratized, import-dependent, and inward-looking economy. Shah argues for a significant shift in the economic trajectory through difficult reforms that drive rapid growth, aiming to position Pakistan as the fifth-largest global economy commensurate with its population size. The chapter provides concrete suggestions for achieving this transformative outcome.

In Chapter 7, Khurram Husain, assesses Pakistan’s economic trajectory in the 2010s, marked by crises at the decade’s beginning and end. In 2023, the country grappled with a severe debt crisis, stemming from a flawed growth model pursued by successive governments. This model relied on massive infusions of money into the economy, fuelling short-lived feelings of prosperity but culminating in crises. The funds for growth were obtained through foreign borrowing or domestic printing, contributing to mounting external and internal debt and soaring inflation. Husain contends that this print-and-borrow growth approach is unsustainable, advocating for pre-emptive debt restructuring and subsequent reforms to establish a more robust foundation for the state, economy, and livelihood systems.

In Chapter 8, Murtaza Syed examines Pakistan’s profound economic crisis in 2023, exploring why the country has persistently been an economic crisis state and a top IMF delinquent. He pinpoints three avoidable missteps that significantly contributed to the economic chaos, emphasizing their severe and enduring macroeconomic consequences. Syed outlines seven ‘sins’ of economic managers, attributing them to the country’s struggle to implement reforms. The chapter concludes with suggestions on achieving an economic turnaround, emphasizing the importance of debt relief and drawing lessons from Asia’s remarkable rise in recent decades.

In Chapter 9, Ishrat Husain explores how Pakistan can enhance its economic competitiveness. The chapter emphasizes key elements essential for boosting the country’s global market competitiveness, reclaiming lost market share, promoting economic growth, generating employment for the youth, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. According to Husain, achieving this is crucial to breaking the cycle of repeated external financial crises and reliance on the IMF and friendly countries for bailouts.

In Chapter 10, Adil Najam addresses a crucial issue—the youth bulge—in Pakistan. He argues that the country’s future is currently defined by its young population, with those under thirty constituting two-thirds of Pakistanis. The chapter contends that the future trajectory hinges on whether the youth will be empowered to fulfil their aspirations or left to grapple with their fears. The outcome, Najam asserts, will be influenced by policy, societal factors, and, most significantly, the choices made by the young themselves. The chapter delves into the current reality of being young in Pakistan and its potential implications for the country’s society and politics.

In Chapter 11, Tariq Banuri, a leading educationist and former head of the Higher Education Commission, scrutinizes the critical role of education in Pakistan’s future. He highlights the current dismal state of the education system, noting that 22.8 million children aged 5 to 16, or one-tenth of the population, are out of school. Even those attending face challenges such as absentee or indifferent teachers, overcrowded classrooms, outdated curriculums, crumbling infrastructure, and poor learning environments. Banuri emphasizes the decline in the quality of higher education due to misguided policies focusing solely on quantitative indicators. To address this educational crisis, he presents an 8-point agenda.

In Chapter 12, Muhammad Amir Rana examines the origins and catalysts of extremism, encompassing socio-cultural, political, economic, religious, and ideological factors. He also explores external factors and the resulting strategic confusion in public responses to terrorism. Rana contends that policy initiatives can reduce the appeal of violent narratives, but reversing extremism requires long-term efforts linked to societal transformation, democratization, and redefining the state’s strategic priorities.

In Chapter 13, Khawar Mumtaz draws on firsthand experience to discuss women’s societal position and their empowerment struggle. She highlights the first mass mobilization of women during the Pakistan movement, led by Jinnah, which established a women’s wing in the Muslim League. Mumtaz describes two parallel processes shaping the women’s movement: political compulsions expanding public spaces for women and women using the opportunity to secure specific rights. Despite the movement’s diversity, she emphasizes the need for better coordination to exert collective pressure and drive more significant changes in laws and society.

In Chapter 14, Jamil Ahmed discusses Pakistan’s extensive environmental crisis, emphasizing its detrimental impact on socio-economic progress, leading to issues such as food insecurity, malnutrition, unemployment, and health problems. He highlights the potential threat of environmental disasters and air pollution causing a 6.5 per cent decline in GDP growth by 2050. Ahmed advocates for a climate-resilient development strategy that addresses climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and resilience measures, emphasizing the need for system transitions to alleviate poverty. He recommends an integrated approach, incorporating environmental considerations into broader policies for sustainable development.

In Chapter 15, Zeba Sathar highlights Pakistan’s inconsistent approach to the population-development nexus, noting its double population growth rate compared to South Asia. The chapter analyses the profound impacts of this growth on the economy, education, employment, and the environment. Sathar recommends a turnaround through the implementation of a strong population planning policy and a focus on human development, which has been lacking so far.

In Chapter 16, Riaz Mohammad Khan provides a thorough assessment of the longstanding and stable relationship between Pakistan and China spanning six decades. He highlights the enduring convergence of interests and mutual understanding between the two nations, even in the face of changing global and regional dynamics. Khan traces the historical evolution of this ‘all-weather’ relationship and emphasizes the currently expanded economic cooperation under CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). Despite the strength of the relationship, he stresses the need for ongoing efforts to reinforce ties, particularly in trade, economic engagement, and people-to-people contacts.

In Chapter 17, Aizaz Chaudhry explores Pakistan-India relations, attributing their enduring mistrust to the circumstances surrounding the 1947 partition. Despite wars and peace attempts, disputes persist without resolution. Pakistan sees India as unresponsive to Kashmir discussions, while India accuses Pakistan of insufficient action on terrorism. Global geopolitics further complicates their relations. Chaudhry identifies several factors that could foster closeness if both countries muster the political will to move in that direction.

In Chapter 18, Sadia Sulaiman delves into the complexities of the US-Pakistan relationship, emphasizing opportunities for enhanced cooperation. While security remains a key focus, the chapter identifies potential areas for growth, including education, cultural exchanges, trade, investment, climate change, healthcare, and agriculture. The overarching message advocates for a more comprehensive bilateral relationship that extends beyond security considerations.

In Chapter 19, Zahid Hussain scrutinizes Pakistan’s challenges following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. He highlights the difficulty for Pakistan to avoid the consequences of a neighbouring hard-line regime, creating new security challenges. Tensions arise from Afghanistan’s safe haven for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), leading to cross-border attacks. The chapter also explores the future of Pakistan’s relations with the US post its military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

These chapters collectively emphasize that Pakistan requires substantial policy changes and reforms to address the diverse challenges threatening its stability. Crucially, the key requirement is a political leadership dedicated to change, prioritizing governance in service to the people rather than self-interest. While Pakistan’s challenges are not unique among developing nations, successful countries share a common attribute: visionary leadership supported by a competent team committed to reform and transformative change. The absence of such strategic leadership in Pakistan hinders the ability to navigate both immediate concerns and those with longer-term impact crucial to the country’s future.

Socio-economic changes in the country, including increased urbanization and a growing middle class, present an opportunity to align politics and governance with a transformed and more informed society. Despite the emergence of a stronger nation and society, the state remains weak, with governance even weaker.

The palpable desire for change among the people holds the promise of shaping a new politics that envisions governance connected to public purpose. Seventy-five years after Pakistan’s creation, its people deserve nothing less.

1

THE RELEVANCE OF HISTORY

Dushka H. Saiyid

History forms the basis of our identity and heritage, often becoming a contentious realm. In neighbouring India, the BJP attempted to alter textbooks, facing opposition from eminent historians like Romila Thapar. In Pakistan, there’s a persistent challenge to its raison d’être, with Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s role subject to misinterpretation and reductionist treatment. While critics focus on the idea that he divided India, historical context reveals the limited periods when central governance extended to regions under British India. Regrettably, Pakistani textbooks often oversimplify history, turning it into a singular cliché.

The British desired a united India as a Cold War buffer against Soviet Russia after the Second World War, rendering the policy of divide and rule obsolete. This chapter delves into Jinnah’s departure from Congress and the end of his role as the Ambassador of Hindu-Muslim Unity. Designating him a communalist overlooks his call for a homeland in Muslim-majority areas. Jinnah’s intellectual growth in London, under the influence of John Morley, a Liberal in power during Jinnah’s training as a barrister, shaped his thinking. Morley’s liberalism, emphasising rationality, duty, diligence, and moral courage, left a profound impact on Jinnah. Advocating compulsory education and politicising the masses through education for political reform, Jinnah recommended John Morley’s book On Compromise to young minds.¹ He said, ‘In no country has elementary education become universal without compulsion’.²

Morley’s dictum, ‘The fact that the masses are not yet ready to receive, any more than to find, is no reason why the possessor of the new truth should run to hide under a bushel the candle that has been lighted for him…No man can ever know whether his neighbours are ready for change or not.’³

Jinnah adopted from Morley the notion that a political leader should lead on what they deem right, rather than succumb to majority whims.